The goal of this analysis was to list all cards lost by each existing archetype to quantify which archetype and which decks will be the most affected by the rotation. This isn't an attempt at predicting what the future meta will look like although it could help to do that in due time. Obviously we have no idea what the next set will contain and we can't make any predictions without this knowledge.
List of cards lost by archetype
This table is based on popular lists found on Tempostorm, VS and popular streamer's channels. Classification of cards into staple, good and tech is based on my understanding of the deck, please let me know if you disagree with me on this classification.
Classes
Staple Powerful/high-synergy cards with a unique effect that can't easily be replaced
Good Cards that are powerful but can be replaced; or that are here only as a plus
Tech Alternative cards sometimes used in the archetype
Ranking of the archetypes by likelihood of survivability
Categorization is not based on number of cards lost but on (potentially flawed) personal appreciation. Again, tell me if you think I'm wrong. Archetypes marked as [N] are natural archetypes of the class based on its general playstyle or its classic set.
Least affected archetypes that have good chance to remain in the post-rotation meta:
C'Thun Druid
Jade Druid
Handbuff Paladin
Aggrogue
Jade Shaman
Pirate Warrior
Weakened archetypes that will remain in the meta but will lose their power level:
Zoo Druid
Secret Face Hunter [N]
Malygos Rogue [N]
N'Zoth/Jade Rogue
Aggro Pirate Jade Shaman
Control Warrior [N]
Zoolock [N]
Endangered archetypes, their survivability depends on the cards they'll receive in the future new set:
Freeze Mage
Malygos Druid [N]
Midrange Hunter [N]
Tempo Mage [N]
Reno/control Priest [N]
Miracle Rogue [N]
Midrange Shaman [N]
DOOMED archetypes that will almost certainly disappear because they relied on very specific cards or on an expansion's theme (e.g. dragons):
Reno Mage
Anyfin Combo Paladin
Dragon Priest
Control N'Zoth Shaman
Dragon Warrior
Reno(hand)lock [N]
Ranking of the archetypes by likelihood of survivability including marginally-played archetypes
Least affected archetypes that have good chance to remain in the post-rotation meta:
C'Thun Druid
Jade Druid
Handbuff Paladin
Aggrogue
Jade Shaman
Pirate Warrior
Aggro Divine Paladin [N]
Murloc (non-combo) Paladin
Evolve Shaman
Blood Warrior
Weakened archetypes that will remain in the meta but will lose their power level:
Zoo Druid
Secret Face Hunter [N]
Malygos Rogue [N]
N'Zoth/Jade Rogue
Aggro Pirate Jade Shaman
Control Warrior [N]
Zoolock [N]
Barnes/Y'Shaarj Hunter
N'Zoth Control Paladin
C'Thun Priest
Endangered archetypes, their survivability depends on the cards they'll receive in the future new set:
Freeze Mage
Malygos Druid [N]
Midrange Hunter [N]
Tempo Mage [N]
Reno/control Priest [N]
Miracle Rogue [N]
Midrange Shaman [N]
Beast Druid
Egg/Token Druid
Y'Shaarj Ramp Druid [N]
Purify Priest
Standard N'Zoth Priest
C'Thun Warrior
DOOMED archetypes that will almost certainly disappear because they relied on very specific cards or on an expansion's theme (e.g. dragons):
Reno Mage
Anyfin Combo Paladin
Dragon Priest
Control N'Zoth Shaman
Dragon Warrior
Reno(hand)lock [N]
Y&L Hunter
Standard Secret Paladin
Dragon Paladin
OTK/Chansey Priest
Mill Rogue
Gang Up Patches Rogue
Resurrect Priest
Patron Warrior
General conclusions
Reno decks will lose their namesake. It is unlikely that they will survive without him. Mages and Warlocks will be deprived from a very good longevity tool. Priest could already do without; but will lose dragons instead.
Pirates, on the other hand, won't lose anything so the meta will probably be much more aggressive than now unless Blizzard heavily pushes control next expansion (or brings the nerfhammer).
Combo decks other than Miracle Rogue will be more difficult to build due to the loss of Emperor Thaurissan
Dragon decks will die, Blizzard is unlikely to promote them for a while because of their policy of "keeping Standard fresh".
Shaman: The meta tyrant will lost its explosive Tunnel Trogg/Totem Golem start. Is that enough to bring the class back into the dumpster it was in 2 years ago? Probably not, but it won't be as oppressive.
Low = Classes with effective archetypes that won't lose many cards to fall back to. Moderate = Classes wtih weakened archetypes whose survival will depend on the new meta. High = Classes heavily hit by the rotation that absolutely NEEDS broken cards next expansion to survive.
*: Yes, Hunter sucks right now, but the only thing it needs is a 1 or 2-mana weapon to join the pirates and be back into the SMOrc fiesta.
Seeing a lot of the stable cards I have become use to seeing so often makes me excited about what is to come. If it wasn't already clear the next expansion has a lot of pressure on its shoulders as how it will or will not replace these cards. In blizzard we trust!
I don't think Dragon Priest is DOOMED. It loses early game cards and taunts and relies more on the late-game greedy cards. A Wrathion here, a Second-Rate Bruiser there, a Bloodmage Thalnos with Holy Smite combo for the Blackwing Corruptor, use the Netherspites to summon a few dragons to make a Drakanoid Operative or two click, and then parlay a Deathwing, Dragonlord that could follow up with Ysera, vanilla Deathwing or Nozdormu (annoyance of all mobile Hearthstone players, slow-animation card plays, Gadgetzan Auctioneer users and combo players like Miracle Rogues). Or just N'zoth to resummon the dragonlord.
I doubt the next adventure will give much help to dragon decks; it's more likely priests with dragons may have to wait for the bigger card release in the summer. So the question is can you put quality fill and stay alive to drop the heavyweights, if you have them.
Rez priest is doomed though with one of its cornerstone spells eliminated. Spell priest loses a lot from a good AOE in Excavated Evil. My thief priest deck loses Nefarian. Purify decks and OTK priests lose a few of the unicorn summoning cards. And all priests lose HUGE with the retirement of Entomb. That card to me is the biggest loss for priest.
Very cool list ! it seems you took a lot of effort to do it !
good to know what each archetype future will be.
also, i liked the jokes about some classes and archtypes, i also think freeze mage is so unfair against some decks, just stalls the game and them use a perfectly balanced (Alexstrasza)*cough* how fair is to go to 30 health to 15 for example, and then, be in the lethal range just because of a single card?
i don't like cards like anything can happen too, cards alone that can kill you instantly please go away to oblivion !
Anyway, everyone has opinions, if i don't like one card, there will be always someone that like it too. just the time will tell how the meta will be! very informative post ! =)
I don't think Dragon Priest is DOOMED. It loses early game cards and taunts and relies more on the late-game greedy cards. A Wrathion here, a Second-Rate Bruiser there, a Bloodmage Thalnos with Holy Smite combo for the Blackwing Corruptor, use the Netherspites to summon a few dragons to make a Drakanoid Operative or two click, and then parlay a Deathwing, Dragonlord that could follow up with Ysera, vanilla Deathwing or Nozdormu (annoyance of all mobile Hearthstone players, slow-animation card plays, Gadgetzan Auctioneer users and combo players like Miracle Rogues). Or just N'zoth to resummon the dragonlord.
That would mean that Dragon Priest would shift from a midrange playstyle to a control playstyle. I'm not optimistic about its potential but I recognize it could be a deck so I moved it to "endangered".
It was a great read, thanks for the effort on writing this.
I am very exited for the next Standart rotation, I hope blizzard can step up the game this year and provide us with great options in there and in Wild.
I don't care that much for archetypes as I usually build decks in the begging and then net deck what seems interesting if I want to climb fast or if meta is fixed like it it now.
But again thanks for the well written post it was a pleasure to read something of quality and with some jokes here and there, I believe your post deserves way more attention.
Also, as a Dragon Priest main (in the absence of a decent Hunter deck), I'd be cool with the deck going more control, although the loss of Twilight Whelp and Wyrmrest Agent will make surviving the early game a lot more difficult. Potion of Madness does help, but some cheap Dragon presence is important to the deck, too. Netherspite Historian is a great value, but not a strong enough board presence alone.
Also, as a Dragon Priest main (in the absence of a decent Hunter deck), I'd be cool with the deck going more control, although the loss of Twilight Whelp and Wyrmrest Agent will make surviving the early game a lot more difficult. Potion of Madness does help, but some cheap Dragon presence is important to the deck, too. Netherspite Historian is a great value, but not a strong enough board presence alone.
If we don't get any replacements Mistress of Mixtures is the Zombie Chow 2.0. Like you don't HAVE to have all dragons, just enough to hit synergies. I feel like Wrathion was created for a reason though, I think we'll see some usable dragons possibly maybe. Fairie Dragon is also pretty good but doesn't see any use. Like if it survives and you curve into a Talonpriest you have a 3/5 shroud minion. Just sucks you can't heal it outside of AOE.
You know what would be fun? Dragon FACE Priest. C'mon blizz, let us be the new cancer!
Hell yeah dude!!! Face Priest would kick so much ass.
I got Wrathion in one of the first two Gadgetzan packs I opened. I don't run him, since I don't feel like I have enough Dragons in my deck to reliably pull more than one card. Azure Drake and Power Word: Shield, combined with Netherspite Historian and my hero Drakonid Operative, generally give me all the draw I need.
Shaman will lose Tunnel Trogg and Totem Golem will have more effect than you think. That is why I disagree with your analysis. Current metaleader position will plummet if there will be no equally good early game minions in the next expansion.
1) All the early game overloads (Wolves,bolts, claws, Faceless, lightning storms) will be real minus without benefiting the Trogg occasionally.
2) Replacing minions will be not so threat and need immediate removal. Think how hard is to find answer to perfect1-2 Trogg-Golem start and how much damage it will cause over time.
Current meta is now over 20% shamans according trackers. I think upcoming rotation will at least drop them from top position. Another point is RenoJackson departure, which might even make aggrodecks more viable.
And I believe Aggro shaman may survive too, depending on early game additions it may get. Pirates will be there, weapons too, same for big damage spells... Maybe it will become more balanced and people will play it sacrificing the higher winrate potential for the huge volume, not getting both like is happening nowadays.
here im really hoping for blizz to give a lot of love to mage Next expansion, i wasn't worried last rotation because mage kept a lot of useful things but in the next rotation Jaina is basically losing all her useful cards, maybe we'll have to use Cult Sorcerer as a c'thun fueling engine?
oh as for the guy that commented that shamman will be bad, that's not possible, most Jade shammans aren't even using trogg or totem golem, pirate package+Jade package is strong enough by itself to make Shamman a t1 deck, and neither of those is rotating out,
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The goal of this analysis was to list all cards lost by each existing archetype to quantify which archetype and which decks will be the most affected by the rotation. This isn't an attempt at predicting what the future meta will look like although it could help to do that in due time. Obviously we have no idea what the next set will contain and we can't make any predictions without this knowledge.
List of cards lost by archetype
This table is based on popular lists found on Tempostorm, VS and popular streamer's channels. Classification of cards into staple, good and tech is based on my understanding of the deck, please let me know if you disagree with me on this classification.
Powerful/high-synergy cards with a unique effect that can't easily be replaced
Cards that are powerful but can be replaced; or that are here only as a plus
Alternative cards sometimes used in the archetype
DROOD
Brann Bronzebeard
Azure Drake
Mulch
Brann Bronzebeard
Raven Idol
Azure Drake
Aviana
Emperor Thaurissan
Raven Idol
Azure Drake
Living Roots
Druid of the Saber
Savage Combatant
Azure Drake
HUNTARD
Quick Shot
Argent Horserider
MAGE
Forgotten Torch
Azure Drake
Ragnaros the Firelord
Brann Bronzebeard
Reno Jackson
Emperor Thaurissan
Refreshment Vendor
Arcane Blast
Effigy
Ice Lance
Emperor Thaurissan
Ice Lance
PALADIN
Argent Horserider
Keeper of Uldaman
Solemn Vigil
PRUST
Wyrmrest Agent
Twilight Guardian
Blackwing Corruptor
Brann Bronzebeard
Blackwing Technician
Entomb
Reno Jackson
Entomb
Wyrmrest Agent
Twilight Guardian
Blackwing Corruptor
Chillmaw
Justicar Trueheart
Excavated Evil
Flash Heal
ROUGE
Conceal
Tomb Pillager
Emperor Thaurissan
Argent Horserider
Tomb Pillager
Undercity Valiant
Unearthed Raptor
Tomb Pillager
Brann Bronzebeard
CANCER
Totem Golem
Azure Drake
Ancestral Knowledge
Lava Shock
Totem Golem
Thunder Bluff Valiant
Tuskarr Totemic
Totem Golem
Azure Drake
Elemental Destruction
Healing Wave
Jeweled Scarab
Lava Shock
Chillmaw
WARLOCK
Emperor Thaurissan
Reno Jackson
Demonwrath
Refreshment Vendor
Imp Gang Boss
Power Overwhelming
WARRIOR
Blackwing Corruptor
Drakonid Crusher
Twilight Guardian
Azure Drake
Sir Finley Mrrgglton
Sylvanas Windrunner
Revenge
Bash
List of cards lost by archetype including marginally-played archetypes
Powerful/high-synergy cards with a unique effect that can't easily be replaced
Cards that are powerful but can be replaced; or that are here only as a plus
Alternative cards sometimes used in the archetype
DROOD
Brann Bronzebeard
Azure Drake
Mulch
Brann Bronzebeard
Raven Idol
Azure Drake
Aviana
Emperor Thaurissan
Raven Idol
Azure Drake
Living Roots
Druid of the Saber
Savage Combatant
Azure Drake
Savage Combatant
Druid of the Flame
Mounted Raptor
Azure Drake
Raven Idol
Sir Finley Mrrgglton
Ragnaros the Firelord
Living Roots
Sir Finley Mrrgglton
Ragnaros the Firelord
Living Roots
Mulch
Aviana
Sylvanas Windrunner
Azure Drake
HUNTARD
Quick Shot
Argent Horserider
Ragnaros the Firelord
King's Elekk
Powershot
MAGE
Forgotten Torch
Azure Drake
Ragnaros the Firelord
Brann Bronzebeard
Reno Jackson
Emperor Thaurissan
Refreshment Vendor
Arcane Blast
Effigy
Ice Lance
Emperor Thaurissan
Ice Lance
PALADIN
Argent Horserider
Keeper of Uldaman
Solemn Vigil
Argent Horserider
Keeper of Uldaman
Sir Finley Mrrgglton
Flame Juggler Argent Lance
Murloc Knight
Anyfin Can Happen
Blackwing Corruptor
Blackwing Technician
Dragon Consort
Azure Drake
Keeper of Uldaman
Silent Knight
PRUST
Wyrmrest Agent
Twilight Guardian
Blackwing Corruptor
Brann Bronzebeard
Blackwing Technician
Entomb
Reno Jackson
Entomb
Wyrmrest Agent
Twilight Guardian
Blackwing Corruptor
Chillmaw
Justicar Trueheart
Excavated Evil
Flash Heal
Flash Heal
Excavated Evil
Entomb
Museum Curator
Entomb
Justicar Trueheart
Flash Heal
Excavated Evil
Entomb
Chillmaw
Sylvanas Windrunner
Icehowl
Garrison Commander
Spawn of Shadows
Twilight Guardian
Reno Jackson
Excavated Evil
Chillmaw
Emperor Thaurissan
ROUGE
Conceal
Tomb Pillager
Emperor Thaurissan
Argent Horserider
Tomb Pillager
Undercity Valiant
Unearthed Raptor
Tomb Pillager
Brann Bronzebeard
Brann Bronzebeard
Refreshment Vendor
Tomb Pillager
Skycap'n Kragg
CANCER
Totem Golem
Azure Drake
Ancestral Knowledge
Lava Shock
Totem Golem
Thunder Bluff Valiant
Tuskarr Totemic
Totem Golem
Azure Drake
Elemental Destruction
Healing Wave
Jeweled Scarab
Lava Shock
Chillmaw
Totem Golem
WARLOCK
Emperor Thaurissan
Reno Jackson
Demonwrath
Refreshment Vendor
Imp Gang Boss
Power Overwhelming
WARRIOR
Blackwing Corruptor
Drakonid Crusher
Twilight Guardian
Azure Drake
Sir Finley Mrrgglton
Sylvanas Windrunner
Revenge
Bash
Emperor Thaurissan
Brann Bronzebeard
Emperor Thaurissan
List of cards lost by class
Cards that are essential only for marginal archetypes are NOT put into the "staple" category
Sylvanas Windrunner
Emperor Thaurissan
Reno Jackson
Justicar Trueheart
Brann Bronzebeard
Twilight Guardian
Blackwing Corruptor
Blackwing Technician
Drakonid Crusher
Sir Finley Mrrgglton
Elise Starseeker
Azure Drake
Dragon Egg
Grim Patron
Refreshment Vendor
Argent Horserider
Icehowl
Garrison Commander
Eerie Statue
Jeweled Scarab
Huge Toad
Silent Knight
Flame Juggler
Raven Idol
Savage Combatant
Druid of the Saber
Astral Communion
Darnassus Aspirant
Mounted Raptor
King's Elekk
Bear Trap
Flamewaker
Forgotten Torch
Ethereal Conjurer
Solemn Vigil
Dragon Consort
Keeper of Uldaman
Murloc Knight
Argent Lance
Twilight Whelp
Entomb
Resurrect
Excavated Evil
Flash Heal
Unearthed Raptor
Tomb Pillager
Undercity Valiant
Thunder Bluff Valiant
Healing Wave
Tunnel Trogg
Totem Golem
Tuskarr Totemic
Imp Gang Boss
Dark Peddler
Bash
Ranking of the archetypes by likelihood of survivability
Categorization is not based on number of cards lost but on (potentially flawed) personal appreciation. Again, tell me if you think I'm wrong. Archetypes marked as [N] are natural archetypes of the class based on its general playstyle or its classic set.
Least affected archetypes that have good chance to remain in the post-rotation meta:
Weakened archetypes that will remain in the meta but will lose their power level:
Endangered archetypes, their survivability depends on the cards they'll receive in the future new set:
DOOMED archetypes that will almost certainly disappear because they relied on very specific cards or on an expansion's theme (e.g. dragons):
Ranking of the archetypes by likelihood of survivability including marginally-played archetypes
Least affected archetypes that have good chance to remain in the post-rotation meta:
Weakened archetypes that will remain in the meta but will lose their power level:
Endangered archetypes, their survivability depends on the cards they'll receive in the future new set:
DOOMED archetypes that will almost certainly disappear because they relied on very specific cards or on an expansion's theme (e.g. dragons):
General conclusions
Risk of oblivion for each class:
Low = Classes with effective archetypes that won't lose many cards to fall back to. Moderate = Classes wtih weakened archetypes whose survival will depend on the new meta. High = Classes heavily hit by the rotation that absolutely NEEDS broken cards next expansion to survive.
*: Yes, Hunter sucks right now, but the only thing it needs is a 1 or 2-mana weapon to join the pirates and be back into the SMOrc fiesta.
Custom cards :
CLASSES : Alchemist (CCC#5 | Phase V) | Chef (CCC#4)
EXPANSIONS : Year of the Scorpion (Year Comp)
great work, interesting post, thank you very much
Seeing a lot of the stable cards I have become use to seeing so often makes me excited about what is to come. If it wasn't already clear the next expansion has a lot of pressure on its shoulders as how it will or will not replace these cards. In blizzard we trust!
I don't think Dragon Priest is DOOMED. It loses early game cards and taunts and relies more on the late-game greedy cards. A Wrathion here, a Second-Rate Bruiser there, a Bloodmage Thalnos with Holy Smite combo for the Blackwing Corruptor, use the Netherspites to summon a few dragons to make a Drakanoid Operative or two click, and then parlay a Deathwing, Dragonlord that could follow up with Ysera, vanilla Deathwing or Nozdormu (annoyance of all mobile Hearthstone players, slow-animation card plays, Gadgetzan Auctioneer users and combo players like Miracle Rogues). Or just N'zoth to resummon the dragonlord.
I doubt the next adventure will give much help to dragon decks; it's more likely priests with dragons may have to wait for the bigger card release in the summer. So the question is can you put quality fill and stay alive to drop the heavyweights, if you have them.
Rez priest is doomed though with one of its cornerstone spells eliminated. Spell priest loses a lot from a good AOE in Excavated Evil. My thief priest deck loses Nefarian. Purify decks and OTK priests lose a few of the unicorn summoning cards. And all priests lose HUGE with the retirement of Entomb. That card to me is the biggest loss for priest.
Very cool list ! it seems you took a lot of effort to do it !
good to know what each archetype future will be.
also, i liked the jokes about some classes and archtypes, i also think freeze mage is so unfair against some decks, just stalls the game and them use a perfectly balanced (Alexstrasza)*cough* how fair is to go to 30 health to 15 for example, and then, be in the lethal range just because of a single card?
i don't like cards like anything can happen too, cards alone that can kill you instantly please go away to oblivion !
Anyway, everyone has opinions, if i don't like one card, there will be always someone that like it too. just the time will tell how the meta will be! very informative post ! =)
Meta is gonna have a massive shift. Without new good cards, priest is going straight back to trash tier class.
Custom cards :
CLASSES : Alchemist (CCC#5 | Phase V) | Chef (CCC#4)
EXPANSIONS : Year of the Scorpion (Year Comp)
Risk of oblivion lol. dont be so bleak theres a new expansion coming XD
It was a great read, thanks for the effort on writing this.
I am very exited for the next Standart rotation, I hope blizzard can step up the game this year and provide us with great options in there and in Wild.
I don't care that much for archetypes as I usually build decks in the begging and then net deck what seems interesting if I want to climb fast or if meta is fixed like it it now.
But again thanks for the well written post it was a pleasure to read something of quality and with some jokes here and there, I believe your post deserves way more attention.
OP: I love you. Freeze Mage can suck it.
Also, as a Dragon Priest main (in the absence of a decent Hunter deck), I'd be cool with the deck going more control, although the loss of Twilight Whelp and Wyrmrest Agent will make surviving the early game a lot more difficult. Potion of Madness does help, but some cheap Dragon presence is important to the deck, too. Netherspite Historian is a great value, but not a strong enough board presence alone.
Forgive me, friend. I have failed.
Hell yeah dude!!! Face Priest would kick so much ass.
I got Wrathion in one of the first two Gadgetzan packs I opened. I don't run him, since I don't feel like I have enough Dragons in my deck to reliably pull more than one card. Azure Drake and Power Word: Shield, combined with Netherspite Historian and my hero Drakonid Operative, generally give me all the draw I need.
Forgive me, friend. I have failed.
my prediction : mage and priest will replace hunter and paladin at bottom when rotation come
Take my +1 sir. :)
Had a lot of time to build this, great job!
Great job!
Do you think Priest will ever be Tier1 without reworking Basic-Classic set?
What about calling the classes by their names? This could be a good summary otherwise.
Very informative, thanks.
here im really hoping for blizz to give a lot of love to mage Next expansion, i wasn't worried last rotation because mage kept a lot of useful things but in the next rotation Jaina is basically losing all her useful cards, maybe we'll have to use Cult Sorcerer as a c'thun fueling engine?
oh as for the guy that commented that shamman will be bad, that's not possible, most Jade shammans aren't even using trogg or totem golem, pirate package+Jade package is strong enough by itself to make Shamman a t1 deck, and neither of those is rotating out,