Since so many people are divided on this card I decided to do an analysis. I added up all the cards in standard, plus the new cards that have been revealed so far. That gives us the following chart which shows how many minions there are for each mana slot, and a quick calculation gives you what percentage of the time he will transform to a given mana slot at the beginning of your turn.
Old Cards (Standard Only) | New Cards | Total | Chance to Transform to Mana Slot | |
0 mana minions | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.47% |
1 mana minions | 39 | 4 | 43 | 10.14% |
2 mana minions | 61 | 2 | 63 | 14.86% |
3 mana minions | 73 | 6 | 79 | 18.63% |
4 mana minions | 63 | 12 | 75 | 17.69% |
5 mana minions | 42 | 7 | 49 | 11.56% |
6 mana minions | 41 | 8 | 49 | 11.56% |
7 mana minions | 20 | 3 | 23 | 5.42% |
8 mana minions | 9 | 3 | 12 | 2.83% |
9 mana minions | 16 | 2 | 18 | 4.25% |
10 mana minions | 4 | 5 | 9 | 2.12% |
12 mana minions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.24% |
20 mana minions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.24% |
Totals | 372 | 52 | 424 |
Using this data I quickly added up the percentages to find out how often Zerus will be on curve for a given turn. I start with turn 2 since he is always a 1/1 for 1 mana on turn 1. Technically that would make him 100% playable on turn 1, though you'd probably only ever play him on turn 1 if you are up against extreme aggro.
Can Cast | On Curve | |
Turn 2 Playable | 25.47% | 14.86% |
Turn 3 Playable | 44.10% | 18.63% |
Turn 4 Playable | 61.79% | 17.69% |
Turn 5 Playable | 73.35% | 11.56% |
Turn 6 Playable | 84.91% | 11.56% |
Turn 7 Playable | 90.33% | 5.42% |
Turn 8 Playable | 93.16% | 2.83% |
Turn 9 Playable | 97.41% | 4.25% |
Turn 10+ Playable | 99.53% | 2.12% |
So from the following data you can see that by turn 4 you are going to have a fairly good chance of playing him. However that is taking into account every card that is playable, you are probably not really going to consider a wisp on turn 4 "playable", so you should really look at the on curve percentage to see if it is actually playable.
But it's actually worse than that too, because some on curve cards are actually going to be quite bad. Let's be generous and say that half of the cards are quite good (If someone would like to give more accurate numbers for each slot that'd be even better.) That gives us the following chart.
Can Cast | On Curve | On Curve and "Good" | |
Turn 2 Playable | 25.47% | 14.86% | 7.43% |
Turn 3 Playable | 44.10% | 18.63% | 9.32% |
Turn 4 Playable | 61.79% | 17.69% | 8.84% |
Turn 5 Playable | 73.35% | 11.56% | 5.78% |
Turn 6 Playable | 84.91% | 11.56% | 5.78% |
Turn 7 Playable | 90.33% | 5.42% | 2.71% |
Turn 8 Playable | 93.16% | 2.83% | 1.42% |
Turn 9 Playable | 97.41% | 4.25% | 2.12% |
Turn 10+ Playable | 99.53% | 2.12% | 1.06% |
Looks like this card doesn't have a very high chance on any given turn of being on curve and a card which is worth playing, however I'm probably being a little too harsh on the turns after turn 6, as you'd probably be happy with any sort of late game card at that point. Even with that taken into account though you are looking at about a 1 in 10 chance on any given turn that this is even a card which makes you think about playing it that turn.
And in terms of using him as a counter tech card (the best argument I've heard for him so far), the math is quite easy. He has a 1/424 (0.24%) chance of being the card you are looking for. That means for every 424 games in which you need the counter, you can expect 1 game to go in your favor. You are better off running that kezan mystic.
2
Great enabler for Zerek, Master Cloner.
1
Just wait till you cast this on a full board and get Chameleos, Bloodmage Thalnos, Patches the Pirate, Shifter Zerus, Lynessa Sunsorrow, Lorewalker Cho, and Nat Pagle. Much wow.
1
I think people are underrating this card. Combined with other cards like Baleful Banker, Faceless Manipulator or Carnivorous Cube, this could potentially replace itself ad infinitum. That's why it has to be at 8-mana.
And lest we forget, here's a sampling of the reactions that people had when Possessed Lackey was first revealed (and keep in mind that this was before it was nerfed):
"A 5 mana 2/2 that will usually do nothing on the turn you play it? It's a little underwhelming."
"Rubbish card like almost all the recruit cards."
"WTF...a joke probably."
" I hope when blizzard nerfs all the annoying cards in the set they actually buff this for a change"
"You MIGHT put this in a wild voidcaller deck but the stat to mana ratio makes it virtually unplayable anywhere else. "
The point is, don't judge cards like this before seeing the full set. Especially when there are still so many Warlock cards to be revealed. All you need is one support card (like something that helps you cheat out a Deathrattle minion) to make Dr. Morrigan oppressive.
3
Uhh no. There are plenty of neutral Legendaries that only fit within specific decks, and are basically useless if you don't play those decks. For example, I don't see how this is any worse than someone opening a King Togwaggle when he doesn't have the support cards to make it work. To call this particular card a "nightmare" is really overstating it when people open legendaries they have no use for all the time.
4
I don't understand the hate for this card. You only need to draw 2 Secrets to get your mana's worth (draw two cards is worth 3 mana), and tutors are usually better than just drawing a random card. Compare this to Fight Promoter, which is more expensive, more restrictive, has no tribe tag, and still saw play in some handbuff decks.
And who cares if not all classes can use this card - there are plenty of neutral minions that are only useful for certain classes (e.g. Captain Greenskin).
38
Thank you for supporting the game and keeping it F2P for others.
1
Uh no, Meteorologist works exactly like Avenging Wrath and Arcane Missiles in that it shoots 1-damage missiles at a random enemy each time, and not all at the same enemy. Watch the video.
3
The bigger news is that Dr Morrigan is the Warlock scientist and her specialty is "Soulology"!
2
Its effect is a Deathrattle.
19
Myra's Unstable Element hype!