I did a rough calculation, if you have 2 pairs of cards, there is only a 27% chance to trigger Reno combo with 15 cards undrawn, halving the value of Reno. You need to draw 4 more cards to get the 50% probability again.
Or you can think of it in another way: if you have 1 pair of cards, then Reno's battlecry becomes a 2-card combo. If you have 2 pairs, then it's a 3-pieces combo.
Highlander decks will work, but I wonder if reno won't do well for cycle decks as well. Cycle rogue for example, might become a thing. You set it up and you can cycle your deck by 9/10 and perhaps gang up reno. There will be a skill requirement (read: pen&paper) for those though, but that's cool.
I was actually wondering if there's mathematical function that can be fit to calculate the chance of Reno healing. Variables would be: [30] - constant deck size [0-14] - number of duplicates (Reno can't be duplicated so you cant have 15 dupes) [1-30] - number of cards drawn so far
I think Multivariate hypergeometric distribution portrays that correctly right?
Precisely, it is just some basic combinatorics, although the mulligans are a huge factor, that right know I can't be bothered to calculate (if it is even possible), I only know that the less duplicates you have in the deck, the bigger role they play. I am PRETTY sure that with the mulligans as a factor, you can safely run 2-3 (even 4) dupes. Right now I am running CW with double Axe, Bite, Slam, Execute, Armorsmith (which would be the first to go) and so far Reno is still working. I have no idea why is all the fuss about "unreliabilty" with a small number of duplicates.
Anyway, only time and, more importantly, mathematics will tell. :)
The first thing I thought of was control paladin, an archetype that tends to run a crazy number of one-ofs to begin with. I threw this together quickly, but I think it actually looks semi-viable:
I was trying a similar Paladin deck, and I found Enter the Coliseum seldom work, so I replaced it with Avenging Wrath. I ran similar Legendaries as you do, with an addition of Eadric.
The only inferior matchup I had was against Dragon Priest, due to a lack of coming back mechanism. Seems like an easy and fun way to make go-to-5 decks.
I'm obsessed with the conception of Reno decks. The idea behind is simple, you put Reno Jackson and 29 single cards into your deck. So you can trigger Reno's battlecry unconditionally. Let me do some naive calculations. In aggro matchups, you averagely have a chance to draw 12 cards before your opponent kills you. So if you mulligan for Reno, then there's about 50% chance you can drop Reno in time. And if you drop Reno in time, then it's almost a guaranteed win versus aggro, because aggro decks are not equipped the tool to deal with the additional 20+ health. Let's assume your deck have a 30% chance against aggro without Reno, then you get 65% chance overall.
The upside of Reno deck is that, you get inherent advantage over aggro. Even if you build a deck that can hardly win over aggro without Reno, they are not unfavored matchups. So you can build greedy decks with other matchups in mind. But there're downsides, that you can't have 2 copies of the most OP cards, and your deck will have less synergy. Since if you run 2 copies of 2 cards, then there is 4 times the chance that you can trigger the 2-card combo if you only run 1 copy of them.
Then comes the question: can Reno decks afford to run 2 copies of any card? I don't think so. For every 2 copies of a card included, there's a 25% chance that both of them will sit in the bottom half of the deck, hindering your Reno from saving you. And if you run a normal deck with so many 2-ofs, then on average you can play Reno when there's about 6 cards undrawn, not much point unless you use it in fatigue to postpone your death by 2 or 3 turns.
The next question is that how much of a downside it is to put 30 single cards into the deck. Considering the strength of single cards alone, you can't run 2 Shredders and 2 Scientists, but there're substitutes like Mech-Yeti, Senjin, Kirin'Tor or Wild Pyromancer, many cards that are decent themselves but just not the 1st picks. Although they're weaker, they themselves seldom lose you the game. And Reno can help you to regain lost tempo, so that's not that bad. As for the synergies, you cannot run 2 copies of Giants and Sunfury/Argus anymore, so no point to make a Reno-Handlock imo, a Reno deck cannot be built around strategies like this. Then probably a Reno deck should be built to emphasize single card strength. Probably as a control deck, try to stall into the late game and throw out late game threats to overwhelm your opponent.
I first tried to build a Reno Hunter. Because I've been playing a L&L Hunter this month, and the deck runs many single cards. So it felt easier for me to build a single-card Hunter. But in retrospect, this may not be a good deck, maybe not a good idea to hybrid Reno with L&L synergy.
Then I tried a Reno Fatigue Priest. I like the deck better. I believe it will work and can only imagine Combo Druid and Control Paladin as its bad matchup. There are still a few cards that I want to include, but not sure which card to switch out, need to be tested.
I believe Mage also have potential for a successful Reno deck. Jaina has so many good tools. I'm just not good at Mage to make a deck. And Reno synergies with Weapon Classes, since you can get more value out of him. I really think a Reno Hunter can be viable, though not of my build. And possibly a Reno Paladin?
What do you think? Do you have any Reno deck in mind?
Pit Snake - essentially a 1-mana 4/1 creature that deals only 2 damage when going face. Good tempo value, and a good combo activator, I've been looking forward to a Shadow-Pan Rogue for long, and this card can push it by a step.
Sacred Trial - mainly a tech against Dr. Boom I suppose. I really can't see the other reasons to put it into a deck.
Cursed Blade - might be used by a Face Warrior, to fight for early board and to activate Mortal Strike.
Curse of Rafaam - should be Zoo's tech against Freeze Mage. In other matchups the best timing for it should be in turn 3~5, when you can force opponents to divide their mana or to postpone. The card need to wait for more punish-spell synergy in later sets.
Desert Camel - if this card gets popular, it will be another reason to run Resurrect Priest with Injured Kvaldir.
I mean, it isn't really a bug, it's just that disenchanting doesn't remove the "new" flag if you have the 2 copies. It seems like a trivial enough thing to fix though, so unless Blizzard's codebase is Riot-flavoured, I don't see why this feature can't be added in.
It's not a failure to remove the flag. The false flags are obtained through disenchanting.
If we don' thave combo, though, the question is what would serve as the 3rd archetype that naturally stops aggro, since Combo is meant to be THAT deck (which is why patron held back aggro so well ad the meta went aggro heavy after it was gone). Midrange is anti-control in HS, not anti-aggro. Control, traditionally, is meant to be stopped by aggrobut PERHAPS we can morph it to be strong against aggro since we DO have Midrange to hold it back (and Midrange has aggro to hold it back). There's also Tempo, but it seems people don't care for Tempo decks.
The stopper of Aggro should be Midrange. Midrange is supposed to be the most versatile archetype with respect to deckbuilding and playing style, seeking either tempo or value plays to battle against Aggro or Control.
However, Midrange was constantly harmed hard by the Combo decks. Because in Hearthstone there is no way to interact with opponent's deck or hand, so there is no feasible way for Midrange to deal with Combo. You cannot undermine your opponent's combo strategy other than doing gimmicky things, a weapon destroyer against Loatheb or a Loatheb to buy you 1 turn against Miracle Rouge is not something you can comfortably rely on. So the only way out is to either be aggressive enough to kill them quick or to outlive their damage, so in a meta defined by Combo, you want to be either an Aggro or a Control, not a Midrange.
Combo matchup reward extreme strategies, and punishes the mild ones. Combo decks keeps Midrange in check, thereby drives away the mediator between the aggro and control. So the dominance of Combo decks is usually a toxic thing.
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I did a rough calculation, if you have 2 pairs of cards, there is only a 27% chance to trigger Reno combo with 15 cards undrawn, halving the value of Reno. You need to draw 4 more cards to get the 50% probability again.
Or you can think of it in another way: if you have 1 pair of cards, then Reno's battlecry becomes a 2-card combo. If you have 2 pairs, then it's a 3-pieces combo.
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Don't replace Alex.
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Reno decks tend to be so expensive.
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if you're really interested: http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Advanced_rulebook
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Eerie Statue.
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I'm obsessed with the conception of Reno decks. The idea behind is simple, you put Reno Jackson and 29 single cards into your deck. So you can trigger Reno's battlecry unconditionally. Let me do some naive calculations. In aggro matchups, you averagely have a chance to draw 12 cards before your opponent kills you. So if you mulligan for Reno, then there's about 50% chance you can drop Reno in time. And if you drop Reno in time, then it's almost a guaranteed win versus aggro, because aggro decks are not equipped the tool to deal with the additional 20+ health. Let's assume your deck have a 30% chance against aggro without Reno, then you get 65% chance overall.
The upside of Reno deck is that, you get inherent advantage over aggro. Even if you build a deck that can hardly win over aggro without Reno, they are not unfavored matchups. So you can build greedy decks with other matchups in mind. But there're downsides, that you can't have 2 copies of the most OP cards, and your deck will have less synergy. Since if you run 2 copies of 2 cards, then there is 4 times the chance that you can trigger the 2-card combo if you only run 1 copy of them.
Then comes the question: can Reno decks afford to run 2 copies of any card? I don't think so. For every 2 copies of a card included, there's a 25% chance that both of them will sit in the bottom half of the deck, hindering your Reno from saving you. And if you run a normal deck with so many 2-ofs, then on average you can play Reno when there's about 6 cards undrawn, not much point unless you use it in fatigue to postpone your death by 2 or 3 turns.
The next question is that how much of a downside it is to put 30 single cards into the deck. Considering the strength of single cards alone, you can't run 2 Shredders and 2 Scientists, but there're substitutes like Mech-Yeti, Senjin, Kirin'Tor or Wild Pyromancer, many cards that are decent themselves but just not the 1st picks. Although they're weaker, they themselves seldom lose you the game. And Reno can help you to regain lost tempo, so that's not that bad. As for the synergies, you cannot run 2 copies of Giants and Sunfury/Argus anymore, so no point to make a Reno-Handlock imo, a Reno deck cannot be built around strategies like this. Then probably a Reno deck should be built to emphasize single card strength. Probably as a control deck, try to stall into the late game and throw out late game threats to overwhelm your opponent.
I first tried to build a Reno Hunter. Because I've been playing a L&L Hunter this month, and the deck runs many single cards. So it felt easier for me to build a single-card Hunter. But in retrospect, this may not be a good deck, maybe not a good idea to hybrid Reno with L&L synergy.
Then I tried a Reno Fatigue Priest. I like the deck better. I believe it will work and can only imagine Combo Druid and Control Paladin as its bad matchup. There are still a few cards that I want to include, but not sure which card to switch out, need to be tested.
I believe Mage also have potential for a successful Reno deck. Jaina has so many good tools. I'm just not good at Mage to make a deck. And Reno synergies with Weapon Classes, since you can get more value out of him. I really think a Reno Hunter can be viable, though not of my build. And possibly a Reno Paladin?
What do you think? Do you have any Reno deck in mind?
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If you were quick enough, you could reply a "pathetic" before he remove you.
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Personally, I want to try a Reno Anti-Aggro, a Entomb Dragon Priest, and perhaps a Shadow-Pan Rogue.
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Pit Snake - essentially a 1-mana 4/1 creature that deals only 2 damage when going face. Good tempo value, and a good combo activator, I've been looking forward to a Shadow-Pan Rogue for long, and this card can push it by a step.
Sacred Trial - mainly a tech against Dr. Boom I suppose. I really can't see the other reasons to put it into a deck.
Cursed Blade - might be used by a Face Warrior, to fight for early board and to activate Mortal Strike.
Curse of Rafaam - should be Zoo's tech against Freeze Mage. In other matchups the best timing for it should be in turn 3~5, when you can force opponents to divide their mana or to postpone. The card need to wait for more punish-spell synergy in later sets.
Desert Camel - if this card gets popular, it will be another reason to run Resurrect Priest with Injured Kvaldir.
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Hunter if f2p, Paladin if p2w.
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