As a bad matematician, I'd say 3 chances. pree sure bout dat .. but seriously, it really depends how many cards you keep on muligan and if you keep it on muligan. It's a good opportunity for you to get better at simple maths.
An example deck. You go first. You didnt get raza in your starting hand, you mulliganed them all. Raza drawing chance until turn 5. Your opponent does not play coldlight oracle , dirty rat or any other card that effect your cards in your hand and deck. And yes you are a priest
So if you hard mulligan for raza and don't even keep Anduin and have no card draw and no coin then 36.67% any extra card drawn on turns 1-4 adds 3.33% (if you draw your hole deck somehow then 100%)
with the coin it is 43.3% because you get an extra card and extra mulligan... same as before 3.33% for any extra draw you get. If you deck is draw heavy reaching over 50% chance is manageable.
An example deck. You go first. You didnt get raza in your starting hand, you mulliganed them all. Raza drawing chance until turn 5. Your opponent does not play coldlight oracle , dirty rat or any other card that effect your cards in your hand and deck. And yes you are a priest
This is not a mathematically well-defined question. You have the Girl which means that you might be able to draw extra cards, but it depends on how your opponent plays.
If you go first and all you care about is getting Raza by turn 5, but you don't draw ANY extra cards, then the probability you succeed is 0.348148. This is because:
1. With probability 1/10 it is in the first 3 cards you're offered.
2. With probability 1/10 it is NOT among those 3 cards, but it is among the next 3 cards you're offered.
3. With probability 4/27 you don't get it neither on the 1st nor on the 2nd attempt, but it is one of the top 5 cards among the 27 left in your deck.
In total this gives probability 47/135 = 0.348148 of having it in your hand by turn 5.
So if you hard mulligan for raza and don't even keep Anduin and have no card draw and no coin then 36.67% any extra card drawn on turns 1-4 adds 3.33% (if you draw your hole deck somehow then 100%)
with the coin it is 43.3% because you get an extra card and extra mulligan... same as before 3.33% for any extra draw you get. If you deck is draw heavy reaching over 50% chance is manageable.
An example deck. You go first. You didnt get raza in your starting hand, you mulliganed them all. Raza drawing chance until turn 5. Your opponent does not play coldlight oracle , dirty rat or any other card that effect your cards in your hand and deck. And yes you are a priest
This is not a mathematically well-defined question. You have the Girl which means that you might be able to draw extra cards, but it depends on how your opponent plays.
If you go first and all you care about is getting Raza by turn 5, but you don't draw ANY extra cards, then the probability you succeed is 0.348148. This is because:
1. With probability 1/10 it is in the first 3 cards you're offered.
2. With probability 1/10 it is NOT among those 3 cards, but it is among the next 3 cards you're offered.
3. With probability 4/27 you don't get it neither on the 1st nor on the 2nd attempt, but it is one of the top 5 cards among the 27 left in your deck.
In total this gives probability 47/135 = 0.348148 of having it in your hand by turn 5.
In step 3 it is 5/27 because as you said 5 cards.
also card draw on turns 1-4 and surviving acolyte of pain might affect chances.
also card draw on turns 1-4 and surviving acolyte of pain might affect chances.
Step 3 adds 4/5 * 5/27 to the probability you'll succeed, as you're not even getting there if you get Raza on your mulligan. The 4/5 is exactly the probability you're not getting it then.
So if you hard mulligan for raza and don't even keep Anduin and have no card draw and no coin then 36.67% any extra card drawn on turns 1-4 adds 3.33% (if you draw your hole deck somehow then 100%)
with the coin it is 43.3% because you get an extra card and extra mulligan... same as before 3.33% for any extra draw you get. If you deck is draw heavy reaching over 50% chance is manageable.
This is correct. :)
I don't think it is correct. Getting Raza by turn 5 is NOT the same as Raza "being in the top 11 cards of your deck", as the ones you mulligan away go back to the pool and can push Raza further down your deck.
Here's how I, as a mathematician who is not especially good at probability, would do it. First, find a lower bound. Do this by ignoring card draw. (In the sample deck, these are Bloodmage Thalnos, Novice Engineer, Gnomish Inventor, Acolyte of Pain, and Power Word: Shield. Also the outside cases of drawing from Shadow Visions into PW:S, Kabal Courier into a draw card turn 4, or drawing from Northshire Cleric.)
I'll compute by the "one minus" method; find the probability of NOT drawing Raza by turn 5, and subtract that from 1. (I assume you meant _by_ turn 5, rather than _on_ turn 5.) Three things have to happen: one is to miss Raza in the opening hand, the second is to miss Raza on the mulligan assuming you didn't start with it, and the third is to miss Raza after the mulligan assuming it wasn't in your first 7 cards.
The prob of not drawing Raza in first 3 is (29 choose 3)/(30 choose 3), or 90%. The probability of not opening with Raza and not getting Raza in the hard mulligan is .9*(26 choose 3)/(27 choose 3), or 80%. The probability of missing Raza in both first two stages and then not drawing Raza by turn 5 is .8*(26 choose 5)/(27 choose 5), or about 65%. According to this, the minimum probability of drawing Raza by turn 5 is therefore about (1-.65) or 35%.
Then I'd find a close-to-upper-bound. The probability gets higher the more cards you draw. Let's not calculate quite the max number of cards you could draw, but rather say you drop Engineer turn 2, Acolyte turn 3, and Inventor turn 4, and manage to draw 2 cards from Acolyte. That's 4 extra cards, a pretty high expectation for the number of extra draws. This only affects the third stage of the calculation, where we just change the number 5's to 9's. That gives a number of (1-.53) or 47%.
So, the answer is somewhere between 35% and 47%. The upper bound was pretty extreme, so the true value is almost certainly much closer to 35%. I'd guess the 37-39% range.
Just banged this out real quick. Might not be right, even though I am a "good mathematician".
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What is the probability of getting raza on turn 5 ? (could be from mulligan also)
It is actually hard if you try to find the exact number.
Going first, second? Hard mulligan? On turn 5 or by turn 5?
If you spam non stop it's 100% :P
On serious note if you hard mulligan for it,it's approximately
36%(11 cards drawn/30) when 1st
43%(13 cards drawn/30) when second
If you are not mulligan anything for it,it's
26%(8 cards drawn/30) when 1st
30%(9 cards drawn/30) when 2cd
As a bad matematician, I'd say 3 chances. pree sure bout dat .. but seriously, it really depends how many cards you keep on muligan and if you keep it on muligan. It's a good opportunity for you to get better at simple maths.
Pure guess based on my experience vs them...i say around 60%
"What are the chances of drawing Raza on turn 5?"
Too many variables to calculate.
Gonna need to be more specific OP.
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if you can wait i will play a million games and note the stats. who need math bra?
Easy 1 out of 30
So if you hard mulligan for raza and don't even keep Anduin and have no card draw and no coin then 36.67% any extra card drawn on turns 1-4 adds 3.33% (if you draw your hole deck somehow then 100%)
with the coin it is 43.3% because you get an extra card and extra mulligan... same as before 3.33% for any extra draw you get. If you deck is draw heavy reaching over 50% chance is manageable.
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Auto squelch. That's all I'm asking for.
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29399o499920w00e99r9494#$19×002 to the power of 1]0030048999 the answer is =1 out of 30
Here's how I, as a mathematician who is not especially good at probability, would do it. First, find a lower bound. Do this by ignoring card draw. (In the sample deck, these are Bloodmage Thalnos, Novice Engineer, Gnomish Inventor, Acolyte of Pain, and Power Word: Shield. Also the outside cases of drawing from Shadow Visions into PW:S, Kabal Courier into a draw card turn 4, or drawing from Northshire Cleric.)
I'll compute by the "one minus" method; find the probability of NOT drawing Raza by turn 5, and subtract that from 1. (I assume you meant _by_ turn 5, rather than _on_ turn 5.) Three things have to happen: one is to miss Raza in the opening hand, the second is to miss Raza on the mulligan assuming you didn't start with it, and the third is to miss Raza after the mulligan assuming it wasn't in your first 7 cards.
The prob of not drawing Raza in first 3 is (29 choose 3)/(30 choose 3), or 90%. The probability of not opening with Raza and not getting Raza in the hard mulligan is .9*(26 choose 3)/(27 choose 3), or 80%. The probability of missing Raza in both first two stages and then not drawing Raza by turn 5 is .8*(26 choose 5)/(27 choose 5), or about 65%. According to this, the minimum probability of drawing Raza by turn 5 is therefore about (1-.65) or 35%.
Then I'd find a close-to-upper-bound. The probability gets higher the more cards you draw. Let's not calculate quite the max number of cards you could draw, but rather say you drop Engineer turn 2, Acolyte turn 3, and Inventor turn 4, and manage to draw 2 cards from Acolyte. That's 4 extra cards, a pretty high expectation for the number of extra draws. This only affects the third stage of the calculation, where we just change the number 5's to 9's. That gives a number of (1-.53) or 47%.
So, the answer is somewhere between 35% and 47%. The upper bound was pretty extreme, so the true value is almost certainly much closer to 35%. I'd guess the 37-39% range.
Just banged this out real quick. Might not be right, even though I am a "good mathematician".