Hearthpwn

I've beaten Mecha'thun druid using the strategy you mention, but don't understand why it works. It seems to me that all they need to do is play Mecha'thun and then Innervate -> Naturalize the small minion. Then they have a 10/10 unkillable minion, which seems like it should be enough to win in many games.

I love this and look forward to reading more in the series! However, I am kind of confused by the concept. What does it mean to see how high you can climb "as a casual player"? Does that mean, without playing many games? Without netdecking? Without spending extra cash? This is a great article from the casual perspective, but I don't quite get "The Plan"...

I'm loving all the arena attention. It'll get annoying if their adjustments keep being as significant as the last few have been, and if they happen every week or two. But I have faith that over time they'll zero in on a satisfactory equilibrium, as long as they keep giving arena the love it deserves.

I agree, this article is disappointing. Especially the inclusion of prepatch decks. And I wish the analysis were a bit deeper, less along the lines of "Alanna is good in Big Spells decks," and more like, "This card is a good craft because even though it is boring, it has high win rates in decks X, Y, Z. This other card is a good craft even though it does not appear in high win rate decks because it leads to a unique play style."

I don't agree that Stoneskin Basilisk will be broken, but surely everyone agrees it is an extremely good card. I'm also surprised it didn't get a mention. It's gonna feel so good playing this against non-ping classes.

You should also consider your preferred playstyle when deciding whether to craft or dust. Combo style Quest Mage decks need to be played a very particular kind of way. I'd recommend watching a couple of videos of streamers playing the deck and seeing if it appeals to you before crafting epics necessary for it.

Congrats! Rank 5 is great. I've only ever hit it once myself, for the same reason as you; I'd rather play arena or decks that are bad for laddering. I covet the Legend card back, but there's no way I'll ever buckle down hard enough to make it...

I can hear Brode laughing at me... I guess I'll take the Battle Rage

I opened Scourgelord Garrosh from a Hallow's End pack and have been trying a similar list to this. I'm curious: what do you think are the advantages of this list over a 2x Dead Man's Hand deck geared more toward control and fatiguing out your opponent? This deck seems easier to play (which is why I'm playing it) but maybe less powerful overall.

Lost my first game (as Cat) horribly, so bad that I was sure I had misunderstood some mechanic. Turned out it's just that my hand was horrible; easily won the next three games, one of each costume. Having the option to mulligan would have been nice to help avoid this feels-bad experience.  Otherwise, I think this brawl is awesome. (Except that it's maybe a little too easy to be very replayable.)

Here's how I, as a mathematician who is not especially good at probability, would do it. First, find a lower bound. Do this by ignoring card draw. (In the sample deck, these are Bloodmage Thalnos, Novice Engineer, Gnomish Inventor, Acolyte of Pain, and Power Word: Shield. Also the outside cases of drawing from Shadow Visions into PW:S, Kabal Courier into a draw card turn 4, or drawing from Northshire Cleric.)

I'll compute by the "one minus" method; find the probability of NOT drawing Raza by turn 5, and subtract that from 1. (I assume you meant _by_ turn 5, rather than _on_ turn 5.) Three things have to happen: one is to miss Raza in the opening hand, the second is to miss Raza on the mulligan assuming you didn't start with it, and the third is to miss Raza after the mulligan assuming it wasn't in your first 7 cards. 

The prob of not drawing Raza in first 3 is (29 choose 3)/(30 choose 3), or 90%. The probability of not opening with Raza and not getting Raza in the hard mulligan is .9*(26 choose 3)/(27 choose 3), or 80%. The probability of missing Raza in both first two stages and then not drawing Raza by turn 5 is .8*(26 choose 5)/(27 choose 5), or about 65%. According to this, the minimum probability of drawing Raza by turn 5 is therefore about (1-.65) or 35%. 

Then I'd find a close-to-upper-bound. The probability gets higher the more cards you draw. Let's not calculate quite the max number of cards you could draw, but rather say you drop Engineer turn 2, Acolyte turn 3, and Inventor turn 4, and manage to draw 2 cards from Acolyte. That's 4 extra cards, a pretty high expectation for the number of extra draws. This only affects the third stage of the calculation, where we just change the number 5's to 9's. That gives a number of (1-.53) or 47%.

So, the answer is somewhere between 35% and 47%. The upper bound was pretty extreme, so the true value is almost certainly much closer to 35%. I'd guess the 37-39% range.

Just banged this out real quick. Might not be right, even though I am a "good mathematician".

Nat, the Darkfisher after 2 years of F2P. Had some fun with him in Mill Rogue but eventually dusted (I think to make Kazakus). Only other golden Legendary is Pyros, though I'm no longer F2P so it's not as special.

I agree with everyone else. If your goal is to get cards, spend your time working and spend that money to get cards. If you want to play Arena all day for a month, then do so and you'll definitely have a butt load of cards at the end.

I don't understand your desire to "gauge how well you're doing." Keep playing Arena, and if you never have to pay real money, then you're infinite. If you win more, then you'll make more gold, and be "doing better." It's not like there's one amount of profit an infinite arena player can make.

Quote from zil_hs >>

Quote from Delnai >>

Quote from zil_hs >>

Here's a fun puzzle:  If your opponent is a druid and plays Innervate + Innervate +  Millhouse +  Dirtyrat turn 1.  Can you kill him on your turn 1? Class + card combo? (You would have coin + 4 cards + 1 minion on board).  Don't forget the 2/6 taunt body of the Dirtyrat.

 I found solutions for every class. Thanks for the puzzle! I had fun coming up with the Warrior and Warlock ones.

Mage: Take your pick. Antonidas + anything; any minion + 2x Pyroblast + 2x Fireball, etc.

Paladin: Any minion + 2x Holy Wrath into Molten Giants

Priest: Prophet Velen + 2x Mindblast + Embrace the Shadow + Flash Heal

Hunter: Tundra Rhino + 2x Call of the Wild + 2x Kill Command

Rogue: Malygos + Shadow Strike + 2x Eviscerate + Sinister Strike

Shaman: Malygos + 2x Lightning Bolt + 2x Lava Burst

Druid: Malygos + 2x Swipe + 2x Starfire

Warrior: Grom + Inner Rage + 2x Sudden Genesis

Warlock: Dirty Rat pulls Malygos, then play Malchezar's Imp + 2x Soulfire + Bane of Doom

 NICE~!! 

 

Just thought of one for Pally that doesn't require RNG.  Pulls any minion, Stonetusk boar + Dinosize to kill Dirty rat, Dinosize + Blessed Champ x2 to hit for 40!

Quote from zil_hs >>

Here's a fun puzzle:  If your opponent is a druid and plays Innervate + Innervate +  Millhouse +  Dirtyrat turn 1.  Can you kill him on your turn 1? Class + card combo? (You would have coin + 4 cards + 1 minion on board).  Don't forget the 2/6 taunt body of the Dirtyrat.