• 1

    posted a message on Hearthstone's MM is *NOT* rigged and is *NOT* keeping everyone at 50% win rate
    Quote from SirJohn13 >>

    Government priorities w.r.t to regulation:

    a) Regulate financial institutions whose irresponsible actions once led to a global financial crisis with far-reaching consequences
    b) Regulate gaming companies whose actions may have led to my opponent discovering DQ Alextrasza off a Draconic Lackey and causing me to lose a game I should have won

    Sounds about right...

    This made me lol!

    Card packs and loot boxes which be bought  for real money are actually regulated afaik. They have to inform well about the rng of what you get.

    I can't believe how butthurt and paranoid some players are about in-game RNG. Our brains are not well put together to understand true randomness, but we are great at assuming patterns where there are none or the dataset is too small. 

    Reposting this great video about RNG by numberphile:

    https://youtu.be/tP-Ipsat90c

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 2

    posted a message on 11x star bonus how to get

    It should be some top % of MMRs, but as the Wild player pool is so small, not many will get it.

    I hope they just make the MMRs numbers available at some point, like they eventually did in Starcraft 2 and already do in battlegrounds. The current ranked Hearthstone just leaves us with a pointless ranking system (up to legend) and a lot of unanswered questions.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Challenge!!

    What about resurrecting this thread? It was pretty active in the heyday and the most recent latest challenge should be very doable!

    https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-deck-building/228308-game-hearthpwns-deck-building-challenge?page=53

    Posted in: Paladin
  • 5

    posted a message on Unabe to reach Legend

    Patience is the key. Don't think about your rank and that you are close to legend, but rather focus on each play you do, making absolutely sure you are putting yourself in the best position to win. When you are this close to legend, winning is much more important than playing many games, so take your time.

    I would not change decks too much, everything is countered by something, and you WILL face counters as well as good matchups no matter what you do.

    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 0

    posted a message on Hearthstone's MM is *NOT* rigged and is *NOT* keeping everyone at 50% win rate
    Quote from 1xbenx1 >>

    Don't engage with that dude. He's a fucking idiot.

    Lol, it is funny he still comes around for these threads. Where was that giant one a few years back which eventually got locked and Hooghout banned?

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 3

    posted a message on Hearthstone's MM is *NOT* rigged and is *NOT* keeping everyone at 50% win rate
     
    Quote from Hooghout >>
    Quote from ScarfaceRo >>

    Hey everyone!

    I decided to make this thread because I recently saw a lot of posts of people claiming that Hearthstone's MM is rigged and if you go over 50% win rate it "cheats" you by queueing you against your counters, give you bad cards in the mulligan or draw, etc.

    Of course, like everyone else, I had my highs and lows (with win/lose streaks going on two digits range at times), but I never felt that the system is rigged or that I'm cheated in any way, and by tracking my win rates at the end of each month I was able to notice two things: that each and every month I got over 50% win rate and that the win rate was pretty consistent at the end of each month.

    But enough with the "feeling"; I should better get to the facts and give you the cold numbers. But, before that, I should probably give some details about my play style to better get the context: I play at most six games per day, which take an hour at most (so I usually average less than 180 games per month), with the best possible deck that matches my daily quest (so that means that I don't play a deck enough to really master it and that I don't always play tier 1 decks because not all classes have them). I'm also a decent player (reaching legend in most months and having a couple of top legend rankings), but I'm definitely nowhere close to calling myself an expert, a hardcore, or a pro player.

    And now the numbers (print screens to prove them will be provided at the end of the post):

    December 2017: 61% win rate (83-52)
    January 2018: 68% win rate (57-27)
    February 2018: 68% win rate (61-29)
    March 2018: 62% win rate (92-56)
    April 2018: 58% win rate (104-76)
    May 2018: 57% win rate (79-59)
    June 2018: 67% win rate (85-41)

    --- that was my best month ever, ending the month in top 5 legend and holding for a while even the #1 legend, at which point I had a hard time finding new challenges in the game so took a half-year break ---

    January 2019: 66% win rate (129-65)
    February 2019: 57% win rate (112-85)
    March 2019: 61% win rate (114-72)
    April 2019: 61% win rate (81-51)
    May 2019: 57% win rate (79-59)
    June 2019: 74% win rate (34-12)
    July 2019: 67% (8-4)
    August 2019: 57% (134-100)
    September 2019: 61% (17-11)
    October 2019: 57% (79-59)
    November 2019: 57% (75-57)
    December 2019: 57% (75-57)
    January 2020: 57% (35-26)
    February 2020: 58% (50-36)
    March 2020: 61% (35-22)
    April 2020: 57% (103-77)

    The average (excluding the two months with less than 50 games) was 60.1%; out of the 21 tracked months only four months (two which were during the old system where we were all resetted back to rank 18, so first few games were almost auto wins and two during which I had a lot of luck and managed to end the month in top 10 legend) had a variation of more than 3% from my average 60% win rate, while during the rest of 17 out of 21 I consistently had between 57% and 63% win rate. And, btw, this month I'm also at 58% win rate far now.

    I think that, while it can still somehow be seen as anecdotical evidence since they're just my personal games, there is enough evidence to see that there is a pattern that says that no, the game is not forcing everyone at 50% win rate, but it just aims too point everyone toward that value via MMR, but, ultimately, everyone's win rate is a personal constant dependent of their skill compared with the skill of the average player - a better player will have higher than 50% win rate (the better the player, the better the win rate) and a bad player will have lower than 50% win rate (the worse the player, the lower the win rate) - the MMR is simply trying to limit those variations so we don't end up having people with 80% and people with 20% win rates.

    So, seriously, if you think Blizzard is artificially capping your win rate at 50% win rate and it simply doesn't let you break over it, how you explain the fact that in 23 tracked months, spawning over three years and a lot of various expansions and metas my win rate never fall bellow 57% (and that while still being a rather regular/casual player playing at most one hour a day and switching decks/classes depending on whatever daily quest I get)?

    And, as I promised, here are all the referenced screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/xNIoA1u

    I further detailed my playstyle and win rates depending on deck variation in this answer: https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-discussion/242896-hearthstones-mm-is-not-rigged-and-is-not-keeping?comment=16

     Working hard to celebrate Blizzards excellent A.I. ability to make it all ook like non-rigging. Reminding me of the flatlanders 'proving'  that flat is all there is. Anyways the only credible way is an independent investigation into Blizzard MMR/RNG mechanics. And with independent I mean independent.

    Or you can come up with a dataset remotely close to what this guy has proving that the game actually IS rigged.

    But no, you are too lazy or incompetent.

    Guys like you have said the same thing for YEARS, but no reasonable attempt of proving rigging has ever been presented. It is not that hard, the data is easily accessible.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Zephyrs The Great - Worst card in the history of the game (poll based on explanation not on title)

    If highlander decks are worth making, they need some completely broken plays to make up for their inconsitancy and lack of synergy.

    The saving grace for Zephrys the Great imo is that your opponent usually gets to play him once, and there is a skill cap to chosing that moment perfectly. His RNG is also limited, which makes him a bit less frustrating to play against.

    Among the broken Highlander neutral cards, Kazakus actually has the best deck winrate at higher levels, followed by Dragonqueen Alexstrasza in Wild.

    That being said, if Highlander decks are too strong, a stat/cost nerf would do a lot.

    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Hearthstone's MM is *NOT* rigged and is *NOT* keeping everyone at 50% win rate

    Thanks. Good points. MMR is not that mysterious, it will try to make your winrate 50%, but will be unable to succeed as players do have different skills, and the top players have no higher levels to climb to. However, a player with very high MMR will be punished harder by losses.

    Good job reaching 67% winrate over a month, that is probably close to as high as possible in this game.

    This is how the top GM in Starcraft 2 looks atm, with one player way ahead in MMR (7k numbers)

    1 7423 73 8
    -- 2 7151 55 14
    3 7093 173 33
    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on The new MMR matchmaking system sux!

    [deck]Deck ID or Code[/deck]

    Quote from KingOfKings >>

    I don’t think that Blizzard is actually rigging the match making system. However, I’ve never seen an analysis that attempted to prove that they aren’t. Scrutiny like that is necessary to keep businesses that profit from games of chance honest. The opportunity to rig the game exists, and only independent statistical audit can confirm that isn’t happening. To my knowledge, casinos in the United States have to submit to far more regulation than game companies like Blizzard, even though the Computer gaming industry is far more profitable on the whole. 

    I think it’s incumbent on organizations that gather Hearthstone data, like Vicious Syndicate and HSReplay, to study this question frequently, no tinfoil hat required.

    No. The burden of proof lies with people who claim Blizzard is not telling the truth or is hiding information. If no rigging is proved, it is a very solid proof no rigging takes place.

    Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.

    I have said this before, but the community was actually able to prove there was a pity timer for legendaries, and it was later confirmed by Blizzard. It is not impossible to do.

     

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 3

    posted a message on The new MMR matchmaking system sux!
    Quote from abupaco >>

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    really bro?

    the curve?

    i mean, really?

    SlydE look very closely and try to think this time what we are talking about and how relates with the new attachment

    ....frankly i'm really excited about next reply

    Come on, man, you can do better. I think we all know they have a way to code their decks, but that does not change the fact the number of decks played on deck on the ladder is enormous and the number possible decks is astronomical. Through rapidly changing metas, they need a formula to determine the likely outcome to punish YOUR deck. They are not even able to code Zephyrs to accurately find the best play.

    A better strategy for you: They use core cards (rapidly updated to accurately reflect the meta ofc) to calculate your archetype similar to HSreplay, and then match you with and archetype you have a bad winrate against when YOU are behaving badly.

    But why would they? It is a complete waste of resources on a very complex operation that will increase queue time and computing power needed for matchmaking for no reason.

    You have to face it, you are just a simple number for the matchmaking bot. Some times you get lucky, some times you don't, but over 100s of games it all evens out, which is why nobody has dug up any statistically relevant evidence for any of these theories yet. The material is there, hsraplay has millions of games recorded, go out there and prove the game is rigged against YOU.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on The new MMR matchmaking system sux!

    Yes, of course. Your curve will very accurately determine both your archetype, how you teched it and what counters it. It is the best way for Blizzard to make sure they punish YOU when you behave BADLY by playing their game in wrong ways.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Legendary Tier List & Crafting Guide

    Thanks a lot for taking a shared responsability that this guide is up to date, even in this very unstable metagame with very frequent nerfs and buffs. Most of the suggestions have been followed:
    Unseal the Vault Tier 2 to 4
    Bazaar Burglary Tier 3 to 4
    Malygos Tier 2 to 1
    Chef Nomi Tier 2 to 4
    Activate the Obelisk Tier 2 to 3
    Corrupt the Waters Tier 2 to 3
    Valdris Felgorge Tier 2 to 3
    Zzeraku the Warped Tier 2 to 4
    Grommash Hellscream Tier 2 to 1
    Teron Gorefiend Tier 1 to 2
    Maiev Shadowsong Tier 1 to 2

    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on The new MMR matchmaking system sux!
    Quote from Hooghout >>
    Quote from SlydE >>

    The matchmaking does not know which deck you queue up with.

    How do you know that? Been at Blizzards design team and mechanics and have insiders knowledge? You saw with your own eyes the inner workings of the matchmaking?  I seriously doubt that. Blizzard has reasons enough to exactly know which decks ae queued. 

    Oh, sorry, I am wrong. They run their matchmaking through a database of 1000s of decks and variations (probably with a specific look on tech cards) to make sure that YOU are getting the matchup YOU deserve at the moment. Before a new release, they have worked all the new metadecks out, and will sure you get countered if you behave badly, even before the players know what the counters are.

    Or, maybe they just try to make you find a good MMR matchup ASAP...

    About the 50% winrate, yes, that is exactly the point of MMR based matchmaking. You don't need to handpick decks for that, you just need to face better/worse players. As all players are not equal, the very top and very bottom of the MMR ladder will have scewed winrates, but the system will always try to send you to 50% by changing your MMR up and down.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Legendary Tier List & Crafting Guide
    Quote from LinkFan001 >>

    There are formatting issues in Wild tier 4, were Dr. Morrgian and Myra Rotspring bleed together from misplaced coding.  

     Fixed

    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 7

    posted a message on The new MMR matchmaking system sux!

    This again?

    Nobody has ever come up with anything but anecdotal evidence that the game chooses counterdecks for you if you are on a winstreak.

    The matchmaking does not know which deck you queue up with.

    If you are on a winstreak with a good deck, the most probably way that winstreak will end (being at 4 or 10 games) is a counterdeck.

    At specific times of the day at specific MMR ranks, mini-metas occur. Choosing a deck which has a good winrate against the current field is an important skill playing the ladder, especially at high legend. Just don't expect any magic, you can get unlucky with any deck.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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