• 0

    posted a message on Any additional incoming nerfs?

    I have done a lot of highroll bullshit with Exotic Mountseller lately, but with the very slow starts spell druid tends to have, I am not sure if it is enough to warrant a nerf.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Hearthstone's MM is *NOT* rigged and is *NOT* keeping everyone at 50% win rate
    Quote from Hooghout >>
    Quote from Alp2760 >>
    Quote from Mansfield92 >>

    Yeah match making can't be rigged. It is completely random and based on your MMR. Kappa

     What is your point here?

     just another fanboy, just like you.

    Damn, the F-word, aka universal tool to send any discussion off the rails and discredit anyone with a different opinion without respect to strength of their reasoning and arguments.

    About man-made randomness not being "random enough": If you really want to convince people of your theories of Blizzard being the big evil, rigging can be proved very convincingly using the vast datasets available and big experiments can be set up. Come on, man, I know you want to!

    If your MMR goes up when you win to face better players, that is plenty to try to give you a 50% winrate. As mentioned in the OP, the best winrate possible in high legend this game is around 70%. If there were less random factors, it would be higher, but even maintaining a 60%+ winrate over 100+ games takes considerable skill imo. Good thing you can  blames mysterious formula to punish YOU specifically if you don't succeed at it.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Legendary Tier List & Crafting Guide
    Quote from Vexling >>

    In my opinion, at the moment the must-have neutrals (common and rare) include: Beaming Sidekick, Blazing Battlemage, Frozen Shadowreaver, Fearie Dragon, Scalerider, Evasive Feywing, Big Ol'Whelp, Faceless Corruptor, Devoted Maniac, Shield of Galakrond, Serpent Egg, Hoard Pillager, Bone Wright, Twilight Drake, Ruststeed Raider, Khartut Defender, Parachute Brigand, Southsea Deckhand and Overconfident Orc. 

     The list has been updated, thanks.

    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Ranking system analysis and tricks
    Quote from SirJohn13 >>

    Last month after I made it to Legend I was getting matched with either D1-D5 players or fellow legend players around my rank. As the month went by and since I didn't have any further aspirations like high legend, I started playing some 'meme' decks for fun and had a win rate around 40% over 100-120 games. My legend rank slowly dropped from 10'000 to below 30'000 and I was getting matched with either ~Platinum5 players or again legend players around my rank, but I didn't face a single D1-D5 player again. I don't think my MMR was so low though that ALL Diamond players had a higher MMR than me (and other legend players around my rank) so I am not sure how to interpret that

    To me it sounds like the system works as intended. My interpretation is that there are very few players meming around with a low winrate at the rank floors in Diamond. They probably tryhard to climb further, as climbing from D5 to Legend is not that difficult, or just stop playing ranked (like I did last season.)

    One of the weaknesses of the current system is that a lot of D5-D1 players would be a lot more motivated and confident knowing that their MMR is actually much higher than many Legend players. I entered in top 1k in Wild at a time when there were at least 8k people in legend.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Ranking system analysis and tricks

    If you play to Diamond 5 and do your dailies to accumulate rewards, why not make it to legend then?  It’s literally just a few extra wins, especially with the multiplier and you get an extra pack and a free legendary the first time.

    Because bonus stars tend to have dried up at that point, and even 15 wins over losses can take a considerable amount of hours when you play against opponents at your MMR level.

    Btw, I did get my free legendary.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Ranking system analysis and tricks

    A player in one of the lower leagues can raise his MMR very quickly (only by winning a couple of matches) to the legend-level MMR poolThis means the probability of facing a legend player until you reach D5 with SBM 1 is very close to 100%.

    Here I think you are wrong. Players of low MMR should never be matched with players 1000s of points above them. If Hearthstone MMR works remotely close to the ones in Battlegrounds or StarCraft 2, you can absolutely NOT reach Legend MMR quickly.

    The HSreplay matches actually often show the ranks of players. Some matchups are close, others are several leagues apart. Has this site figured out how the MMR is calculated so you can know where you are at yet? It has been done for other games and should not be that complicated.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Bonus Stars ARE lost if you don't play

    The whole idea of a double bonus star system terrible imo! Some main flaws:

    -MMR, which is the core of the matchmaking is hidden, so players don't know what really goes on.

    -You don't face players of the same rank, so they decided to hide the rank of your opponents so you can't see how nosensical the ladder really is.

    -A win can get you between 1 and 22(!) stars, making climbing ranks a weird and swingy affair. The winstreak bonus was enough already, now they doubled up on it.

    I get they want players to face opponents of equal skill while still feeling good climbing, but I think they underestimate the players too much. People have stopped caring about those leagues you can just breeze through already.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Duplicate protection in wild.

    The duplicate protection not keep you from filling out your collection with cards you dusted before that exact patch. Cards you dusted afterwards will count as "owned," and can only be found once you opened all other cards from that rarity, and at equal chance as all others.

    As for the packs... It depends, make a list of the cards you want to hit and make a calculation. My gut says crafting it all is actually cheaper.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Hearthstone's MM is *NOT* rigged and is *NOT* keeping everyone at 50% win rate
    Quote from SirJohn13 >>

    Government priorities w.r.t to regulation:

    a) Regulate financial institutions whose irresponsible actions once led to a global financial crisis with far-reaching consequences
    b) Regulate gaming companies whose actions may have led to my opponent discovering DQ Alextrasza off a Draconic Lackey and causing me to lose a game I should have won

    Sounds about right...

    This made me lol!

    Card packs and loot boxes which be bought  for real money are actually regulated afaik. They have to inform well about the rng of what you get.

    I can't believe how butthurt and paranoid some players are about in-game RNG. Our brains are not well put together to understand true randomness, but we are great at assuming patterns where there are none or the dataset is too small. 

    Reposting this great video about RNG by numberphile:

    https://youtu.be/tP-Ipsat90c

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 3

    posted a message on 11x star bonus how to get

    It should be some top % of MMRs, but as the Wild player pool is so small, not many will get it.

    I hope they just make the MMRs numbers available at some point, like they eventually did in Starcraft 2 and already do in battlegrounds. The current ranked Hearthstone just leaves us with a pointless ranking system (up to legend) and a lot of unanswered questions.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Challenge!!

    What about resurrecting this thread? It was pretty active in the heyday and the most recent latest challenge should be very doable!

    https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-deck-building/228308-game-hearthpwns-deck-building-challenge?page=53

    Posted in: Paladin
  • 5

    posted a message on Unabe to reach Legend

    Patience is the key. Don't think about your rank and that you are close to legend, but rather focus on each play you do, making absolutely sure you are putting yourself in the best position to win. When you are this close to legend, winning is much more important than playing many games, so take your time.

    I would not change decks too much, everything is countered by something, and you WILL face counters as well as good matchups no matter what you do.

    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 0

    posted a message on Hearthstone's MM is *NOT* rigged and is *NOT* keeping everyone at 50% win rate
    Quote from 1xbenx1 >>

    Don't engage with that dude. He's a fucking idiot.

    Lol, it is funny he still comes around for these threads. Where was that giant one a few years back which eventually got locked and Hooghout banned?

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 3

    posted a message on Hearthstone's MM is *NOT* rigged and is *NOT* keeping everyone at 50% win rate
     
    Quote from Hooghout >>
    Quote from ScarfaceRo >>

    Hey everyone!

    I decided to make this thread because I recently saw a lot of posts of people claiming that Hearthstone's MM is rigged and if you go over 50% win rate it "cheats" you by queueing you against your counters, give you bad cards in the mulligan or draw, etc.

    Of course, like everyone else, I had my highs and lows (with win/lose streaks going on two digits range at times), but I never felt that the system is rigged or that I'm cheated in any way, and by tracking my win rates at the end of each month I was able to notice two things: that each and every month I got over 50% win rate and that the win rate was pretty consistent at the end of each month.

    But enough with the "feeling"; I should better get to the facts and give you the cold numbers. But, before that, I should probably give some details about my play style to better get the context: I play at most six games per day, which take an hour at most (so I usually average less than 180 games per month), with the best possible deck that matches my daily quest (so that means that I don't play a deck enough to really master it and that I don't always play tier 1 decks because not all classes have them). I'm also a decent player (reaching legend in most months and having a couple of top legend rankings), but I'm definitely nowhere close to calling myself an expert, a hardcore, or a pro player.

    And now the numbers (print screens to prove them will be provided at the end of the post):

    December 2017: 61% win rate (83-52)
    January 2018: 68% win rate (57-27)
    February 2018: 68% win rate (61-29)
    March 2018: 62% win rate (92-56)
    April 2018: 58% win rate (104-76)
    May 2018: 57% win rate (79-59)
    June 2018: 67% win rate (85-41)

    --- that was my best month ever, ending the month in top 5 legend and holding for a while even the #1 legend, at which point I had a hard time finding new challenges in the game so took a half-year break ---

    January 2019: 66% win rate (129-65)
    February 2019: 57% win rate (112-85)
    March 2019: 61% win rate (114-72)
    April 2019: 61% win rate (81-51)
    May 2019: 57% win rate (79-59)
    June 2019: 74% win rate (34-12)
    July 2019: 67% (8-4)
    August 2019: 57% (134-100)
    September 2019: 61% (17-11)
    October 2019: 57% (79-59)
    November 2019: 57% (75-57)
    December 2019: 57% (75-57)
    January 2020: 57% (35-26)
    February 2020: 58% (50-36)
    March 2020: 61% (35-22)
    April 2020: 57% (103-77)

    The average (excluding the two months with less than 50 games) was 60.1%; out of the 21 tracked months only four months (two which were during the old system where we were all resetted back to rank 18, so first few games were almost auto wins and two during which I had a lot of luck and managed to end the month in top 10 legend) had a variation of more than 3% from my average 60% win rate, while during the rest of 17 out of 21 I consistently had between 57% and 63% win rate. And, btw, this month I'm also at 58% win rate far now.

    I think that, while it can still somehow be seen as anecdotical evidence since they're just my personal games, there is enough evidence to see that there is a pattern that says that no, the game is not forcing everyone at 50% win rate, but it just aims too point everyone toward that value via MMR, but, ultimately, everyone's win rate is a personal constant dependent of their skill compared with the skill of the average player - a better player will have higher than 50% win rate (the better the player, the better the win rate) and a bad player will have lower than 50% win rate (the worse the player, the lower the win rate) - the MMR is simply trying to limit those variations so we don't end up having people with 80% and people with 20% win rates.

    So, seriously, if you think Blizzard is artificially capping your win rate at 50% win rate and it simply doesn't let you break over it, how you explain the fact that in 23 tracked months, spawning over three years and a lot of various expansions and metas my win rate never fall bellow 57% (and that while still being a rather regular/casual player playing at most one hour a day and switching decks/classes depending on whatever daily quest I get)?

    And, as I promised, here are all the referenced screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/xNIoA1u

    I further detailed my playstyle and win rates depending on deck variation in this answer: https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-discussion/242896-hearthstones-mm-is-not-rigged-and-is-not-keeping?comment=16

     Working hard to celebrate Blizzards excellent A.I. ability to make it all ook like non-rigging. Reminding me of the flatlanders 'proving'  that flat is all there is. Anyways the only credible way is an independent investigation into Blizzard MMR/RNG mechanics. And with independent I mean independent.

    Or you can come up with a dataset remotely close to what this guy has proving that the game actually IS rigged.

    But no, you are too lazy or incompetent.

    Guys like you have said the same thing for YEARS, but no reasonable attempt of proving rigging has ever been presented. It is not that hard, the data is easily accessible.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Zephyrs The Great - Worst card in the history of the game (poll based on explanation not on title)

    If highlander decks are worth making, they need some completely broken plays to make up for their inconsitancy and lack of synergy.

    The saving grace for Zephrys the Great imo is that your opponent usually gets to play him once, and there is a skill cap to chosing that moment perfectly. His RNG is also limited, which makes him a bit less frustrating to play against.

    Among the broken Highlander neutral cards, Kazakus actually has the best deck winrate at higher levels, followed by Dragonqueen Alexstrasza in Wild.

    That being said, if Highlander decks are too strong, a stat/cost nerf would do a lot.

    Posted in: Card Discussion
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