And since somebody mentioned Hunterace earlier, I'd urge everybody to check out the Hunterace vs. Kolento match that just went down. GM Europe, week 5, day 1. Hunterace on the Holy Wraith Paladin, Kolento playing Hunter. Amazing game with Kolento two off of lethal for several turns at the end, holding off on playing minions to avoid the Shirvallah rush heal. Really a clinic by both players.
hearthstone at it's core is 100% RNG based. if everyone played everything perfectly then the luckier player would always win.
HOWEVER, not everyone plays perfectly. In fact, almost nobody does. Using skill allows you to influence how much of a chance you have to win. manage your resources better, get more value, do better mulligans, all these things give you a better chance of winning. So yes, a dumbass could win just by being really really lucky, but a lot of matches are actually decided by what player plays their cards better.
It's not just "playing cards better". A lot of the "skill" is based on your knowledge of your opponent's deck. I've recently been playing against a lot of decks I've never seen before, because I don't watch streamers or read articles. I've made a lot of plays that turned out to be bad simply because I incorrectly predicted what my opponent was capable of.
Knowledge of the gaming environment is really the biggest "skill" in Hearthstone, which can only be gained through experience.
I've noticed this when I used to play the CCG Vampire: the Eternal Struggle. In a tournament final, some players had knowledge of other players' decks through chance placement in prior games, and that gave them a huge advantage over those who hadn't seen those decks before. Preparation is at least as important as "skill".
Don't forget bluffing and hand tracking. This game has so many skill layers that base players don't even come close to understanding. For instance I can hand track thorough intuition but firebat actually knows which cards have been held from which turns and can predict what they're holding with high accuracy.
Also someone said 5 years ago it took 100 games just to reach rank 5 and now it takes them 50 to get somewhere between 1-5... And used this to say it's rng based.... How? Likely in 5 years your skill got better and they changed the laddering system to make it softer to get to legend. Lol.
I’m surprised no one talked about the main topic of grit and self regulation in HS. I still feel that those skills alone are the most important, followed closely by luck/rng.
The skill in this game only matters till certain point.
For example, every GM players know the meta, what to play arround, they track the cards, antecipate the plays, etc. They are all in the same lvl of gameplay, or really close to it. In this case, most games are decided by RNG, and the luckier player wins. And that's what makes professional HS a joke, it's a tournament where basically every single game is decided by rng. Remember pavel's book? No wonder why some dude played TFT while on a GM match
Anyway, thats what the community enjoys the most: RNG fiesta.
Firebat uses a tracker that tells him what turn the card came into his opponents hand. It tracks everything relevant and I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of legend uses one. You could easily do this on paper but it makes it really easy with the program.
Don't forget bluffing and hand tracking. This game has so many skill layers that base players don't even come close to understanding. For instance I can hand track thorough intuition but firebat actually knows which cards have been held from which turns and can predict what they're holding with high accuracy.
Also someone said 5 years ago it took 100 games just to reach rank 5 and now it takes them 50 to get somewhere between 1-5... And used this to say it's rng based.... How? Likely in 5 years your skill got better and they changed the laddering system to make it softer to get to legend. Lol.
Exactly. Reaching a higher rank in shorter time span, means you have become better at the game.
Over multiple games, the RNG effect flattens out between players.
Luck greatly determines the outcome of a single game, but over the span of many games, luck becomes less of a factor and skills become more important.
With regards to grit: The skill of playing hearthstone is determined by your personal skills like perseverance, adaptability and such. Grit is one of those, along with self regulation. In the end a player's gaming skill is built from multiple other skills.
The arguments Ive given here are comparable to playing poker: the hand you play poker with highly determines the outcome of that hand. Whether a player is a winner or loser is however determined after several thousands of hands dealt. Luck evens out.
Just yesterday I was talking to myself (my favorite and most treasured conversation partner) about this topic, and it feels to me like the majority of the skill element of this game is in deckbuilding. A lot of players don't bother to deckbuild, but just copy decks and allow their raw power to carry them up the ranks, but in my recent time in high wild legend, I've noticed that the highest ranking players (the top 25) are almost all playing decks that don't appear on any tier lists or meta snapshots I could find. Meanwhile, the supposed "strongest decks in the game," like secret mage, are nowhere to be found.
In terms of mechanics, Hearthstone is a pretty easy game to learn how to play well, but deckbuilding takes months, even years, to master. Peak skill in Hearthstone isn't copying the most popular strategies for success, but understanding how the most popular strategies work and how to counter them.
There is plenty of skill. Don't be fooled. If you think that luck and RNG play the biggest role in determining your rank then you are sadly mistaken.
Think for a minute about the hours and hours spent learning the different meta decks and what cards to play and when. And what cards to expect your opponent to play. And determining the percentage of winning by what is in your hand and what your opponent has played.
Or you just get lucky and wait for RNG to move you up the ladder? I think not.
There is plenty of skill. Don't be fooled. If you think that luck and RNG play the biggest role in determining your rank then you are sadly mistaken.
Think for a minute about the hours and hours spent learning the different meta decks and what cards to play and when. And what cards to expect your opponent to play. And determining the percentage of winning by what is in your hand and what your opponent has played.
Or you just get lucky and wait for RNG to move you up the ladder? I think not.
Its crazy to think luck and RNG doesn’t play a role in a game full of luck and RNG. Then again, ZtG has proven RNG is manipulated to begin with so...
As for skill vs luck, there is both. Skill basically determines the mean of your win rate, and luck determines the variance. It's just that if the decks are RNG-heavy, variance is much bigger. Skill still matters, and in a big series of games will show, but in a single game (or a small sample), variance plays a very big role.
Many forget that skill has many components though: deck building (until data takes over and meta is "solved", but even then with little tweaks), deck selection (from known decks, depending on ladder pocket metas or tournament formats), meta knowledge, mulligan... and that's all before any card was even played.
Once the match starts, it's about piloting the deck, meta knowledge, some bluffing and reading, and generally managing the RNG possibilities.
Saying skill doesn't matter in HS at all is like saying skill doesn't matter in Poker, cause it's all just random anyway. And yet, we have some players consistently on top. Consistent luck is not luck, it's skill.
Its crazy to think luck and RNG doesn’t play a role in a game full of luck and RNG. Then again, ZtG has proven RNG is manipulated to begin with so...
Which RNG is manipulated and how? Can you link to that proof please?
Link what? The card alone proves it. It scans the board and looks for the “perfect” solution. That’s manipulation of the RNG right there.
ZtG is not RNG, it generates the cards based on an algorithm, not randomly. Zephrys proves that it is possible to manipulate discover options/topdecks etc. to suit the situation, but it does not on any level prove that it is actually happening outside of the instance of itself (which is exactly how it is supposed to work).
Which RNG is manipulated and how? Can you link to that proof please?
Link what? The card alone proves it. It scans the board and looks for the “perfect” solution. That’s manipulation of the RNG right there.
Ah, I thought you meant something hidden happening behind the scenes.
So, a card works as designed and publicized. Where is the problem?
I mean, you either misunderstand what manipulation means, or what RNG means. Calling this "RNG manipulation" is the same as calling a "discover a 4-cost card" "manipulation" because it limits the discover pool to only a certain subset of cards, or calling Arcane Missiles "manipulated" because their targets depend on the board state.
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And since somebody mentioned Hunterace earlier, I'd urge everybody to check out the Hunterace vs. Kolento match that just went down. GM Europe, week 5, day 1. Hunterace on the Holy Wraith Paladin, Kolento playing Hunter. Amazing game with Kolento two off of lethal for several turns at the end, holding off on playing minions to avoid the Shirvallah rush heal. Really a clinic by both players.
It's not just "playing cards better". A lot of the "skill" is based on your knowledge of your opponent's deck. I've recently been playing against a lot of decks I've never seen before, because I don't watch streamers or read articles. I've made a lot of plays that turned out to be bad simply because I incorrectly predicted what my opponent was capable of.
Knowledge of the gaming environment is really the biggest "skill" in Hearthstone, which can only be gained through experience.
I've noticed this when I used to play the CCG Vampire: the Eternal Struggle. In a tournament final, some players had knowledge of other players' decks through chance placement in prior games, and that gave them a huge advantage over those who hadn't seen those decks before. Preparation is at least as important as "skill".
Very, very, very, very little skill. But there is SOME.
Don't forget bluffing and hand tracking. This game has so many skill layers that base players don't even come close to understanding. For instance I can hand track thorough intuition but firebat actually knows which cards have been held from which turns and can predict what they're holding with high accuracy.
Also someone said 5 years ago it took 100 games just to reach rank 5 and now it takes them 50 to get somewhere between 1-5... And used this to say it's rng based.... How? Likely in 5 years your skill got better and they changed the laddering system to make it softer to get to legend. Lol.
45% skill 40% luck 15% other bs
I’m surprised no one talked about the main topic of grit and self regulation in HS. I still feel that those skills alone are the most important, followed closely by luck/rng.
The skill in this game only matters till certain point.
For example, every GM players know the meta, what to play arround, they track the cards, antecipate the plays, etc. They are all in the same lvl of gameplay, or really close to it. In this case, most games are decided by RNG, and the luckier player wins. And that's what makes professional HS a joke, it's a tournament where basically every single game is decided by rng. Remember pavel's book? No wonder why some dude played TFT while on a GM match
Anyway, thats what the community enjoys the most: RNG fiesta.
I reached legend few times and it is skill of not making mistakes and know your winning condition against all other decks.
I am avarage at best but still not hard for me to get to legend.
Every month if I had the time.
Firebat uses a tracker that tells him what turn the card came into his opponents hand. It tracks everything relevant and I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of legend uses one. You could easily do this on paper but it makes it really easy with the program.
Exactly. Reaching a higher rank in shorter time span, means you have become better at the game.
Over multiple games, the RNG effect flattens out between players.
Luck greatly determines the outcome of a single game, but over the span of many games, luck becomes less of a factor and skills become more important.
With regards to grit: The skill of playing hearthstone is determined by your personal skills like perseverance, adaptability and such. Grit is one of those, along with self regulation. In the end a player's gaming skill is built from multiple other skills.
The arguments Ive given here are comparable to playing poker: the hand you play poker with highly determines the outcome of that hand. Whether a player is a winner or loser is however determined after several thousands of hands dealt. Luck evens out.
Lol skill in a rigged matchmaking system. Talk about an oxymoron.
Just yesterday I was talking to myself (my favorite and most treasured conversation partner) about this topic, and it feels to me like the majority of the skill element of this game is in deckbuilding. A lot of players don't bother to deckbuild, but just copy decks and allow their raw power to carry them up the ranks, but in my recent time in high wild legend, I've noticed that the highest ranking players (the top 25) are almost all playing decks that don't appear on any tier lists or meta snapshots I could find. Meanwhile, the supposed "strongest decks in the game," like secret mage, are nowhere to be found.
In terms of mechanics, Hearthstone is a pretty easy game to learn how to play well, but deckbuilding takes months, even years, to master. Peak skill in Hearthstone isn't copying the most popular strategies for success, but understanding how the most popular strategies work and how to counter them.
There is plenty of skill. Don't be fooled. If you think that luck and RNG play the biggest role in determining your rank then you are sadly mistaken.
Think for a minute about the hours and hours spent learning the different meta decks and what cards to play and when. And what cards to expect your opponent to play. And determining the percentage of winning by what is in your hand and what your opponent has played.
Or you just get lucky and wait for RNG to move you up the ladder? I think not.
Its crazy to think luck and RNG doesn’t play a role in a game full of luck and RNG. Then again, ZtG has proven RNG is manipulated to begin with so...
Which RNG is manipulated and how?
Can you link to that proof please?
Get your tin foil hat on. It's about to get good.
Link what? The card alone proves it. It scans the board and looks for the “perfect” solution. That’s manipulation of the RNG right there.
As for skill vs luck, there is both.
Skill basically determines the mean of your win rate, and luck determines the variance.
It's just that if the decks are RNG-heavy, variance is much bigger. Skill still matters, and in a big series of games will show, but in a single game (or a small sample), variance plays a very big role.
Many forget that skill has many components though: deck building (until data takes over and meta is "solved", but even then with little tweaks), deck selection (from known decks, depending on ladder pocket metas or tournament formats), meta knowledge, mulligan... and that's all before any card was even played.
Once the match starts, it's about piloting the deck, meta knowledge, some bluffing and reading, and generally managing the RNG possibilities.
Saying skill doesn't matter in HS at all is like saying skill doesn't matter in Poker, cause it's all just random anyway.
And yet, we have some players consistently on top.
Consistent luck is not luck, it's skill.
ZtG is not RNG, it generates the cards based on an algorithm, not randomly. Zephrys proves that it is possible to manipulate discover options/topdecks etc. to suit the situation, but it does not on any level prove that it is actually happening outside of the instance of itself (which is exactly how it is supposed to work).
Ah, I thought you meant something hidden happening behind the scenes.
So, a card works as designed and publicized. Where is the problem?
I mean, you either misunderstand what manipulation means, or what RNG means.
Calling this "RNG manipulation" is the same as calling a "discover a 4-cost card" "manipulation" because it limits the discover pool to only a certain subset of cards, or calling Arcane Missiles "manipulated" because their targets depend on the board state.