I saw the problems with standard for this expansion a mile away, it doesn't make me special because everyone could see Secret Paladin was going to be stupidly busted. And Deck of Lunacy is a serious problem.
So I have played no games of standard.
But I have watched a lot of streams and it sure looks like Hearthstone has fixed a ton of problems with various classes and also fixed the "too much card generation problem".
I suspect that after the nerfs I might play Standard again.
Priest looks less like a cancerous class and more like a late game class. Hunter is a bit less face oriented and a bit more minion oriented. Rogue with the loss of sap and eviserate looks to be a little more fair. Demon Hunter actually looks fairly "normal" with the loss of Twin Slice and doesn't look like unfair cancer. Shaman doesn't seem to quite have what the other classes have, but Menancing Nimbus in Core is on of the best 2 drops Shaman ever had. And Druid losing Savage Roar means no more token cancer.
If the nerfs manage to properly address current issues without somehow making some other class God Tier, I think they might have Standard in a "good place" for the first time in quite a while.
I’m going to be pessimistic. In the eyes of the community, “no” it won’t be.
Kibler hit the nail on the head on his stream today. So many people in this community are just never happy. The meta is always “the worse it’s ever been.” People love love love to complain and blame the game for their losses. This happens every single time.
A couple of classes are top of the meta game. People whine and complain.
They roll out a balance patch, something else becomes the top of the meta game. People will whine and complain about that.
They could literally roll out a balance patch a week about whatever the community is witch hunting that particular week, and then people would just move onto complaining about the next thing.
Scarily correct. I swear we could simply keep removing cards from the meta till every keyword, battlecry, deathrattle, and steady state ability was out of the game, and people would start posting about how War Golem is too OP.
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Scarily correct. I swear we could simply keep removing cards from the meta till every keyword, battlecry, deathrattle, and steady state ability was out of the game, and people would start posting about how War Golem is too OP.
This is exactly right. They could prune, and prune, and prune, and prune and all of a sudden “chillwind yeti is beyond broken.”
I really can’t be convinced otherwise, because I’ve been around since beta, and seen the complaining since then. 8 mana mind control, 8 mana pyro was “the worst thing ever,” both got nerfed, people moved on. Miracle rogue came along, got nerfed, people moved on.
It never ends, and to prove it, just save my responses in here for next weeks nerfs. It will take no longer than 48 hours for the next round of complaints to scour the forums. Because again, when people lose, it’s the game’s fault, not theirs.
On an only slightly related note, there's a popular youtuber in the chess community, I think his name is Levy something, but the channel name is Gotham Chess.
Anyway, he's an IM (International Master) which is below a GM in chess rankings, and he just started making this series of videos where he and this other chess player who is considerably better than Gotham both tackle the same chess puzzle. What is interesting and relevant to the discussion here is how incredibly NOT self-conscious the player is about openly comparing himself to a better player and talking about his shortcomings at finding the solutions and what not.
That type of attitude was so refreshing to see after the average Hearthstone forum stuff, I was floored.
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Helpful Clarification on Forbidden Topics for Hearthstone Forums:
Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
I’m going to be pessimistic. In the eyes of the community, “no” it won’t be.
Kibler hit the nail on the head on his stream today. So many people in this community are just never happy. The meta is always “the worse it’s ever been.” People love love love to complain and blame the game for their losses. This happens every single time.
A couple of classes are top of the meta game. People whine and complain.
They roll out a balance patch, something else becomes the top of the meta game. People will whine and complain about that.
They could literally roll out a balance patch a week about whatever the community is witch hunting that particular week, and then people would just move onto complaining about the next thing.
Thank you for saving me time to comment. You're absolutely right. No matter what, people won't ever be satisfied.
On an only slightly related note, there's a popular youtuber in the chess community, I think his name is Levy something, but the channel name is Gotham Chess.
Anyway, he's an IM (International Master) which is below a GM in chess rankings, and he just started making this series of videos where he and this other chess player who is considerably better than Gotham both tackle the same chess puzzle. What is interesting and relevant to the discussion here is how incredibly NOT self-conscious the player is about openly comparing himself to a better player and talking about his shortcomings at finding the solutions and what not.
That type of attitude was so refreshing to see after the average Hearthstone forum stuff, I was floored.
This is the mentality of a mature person that realizes that there is always room for them to grow.
And I really am sick and tired of the RNG complaint. First, and frankly foremost, people know the boat their getting into when it comes to hearthstone/any card game really. Card games, EVERY card game, is going to have variance. If you want to play something that has no variance, go play fifa or something else. You can’t jump in a pool and whine about getting wet.
And second, RNG is only a portion of it. The same names don’t end top 10, top 100, top 500 every month because they’re stars watch over them more than everyone else’s. This game is about realizing your outs, and playing to them. Of course there are going to be games where you get screwed by getting a bad draw, by your opponent getting a god draw, or some Discover card hitting the “perfect” card. See my first point.
Personally, I don’t think people have the right to complain about RNG and play any card game. It’s just nonsense, and is so obviously not the genre they should be playing.
The main thing for me is I thought this meta had REAL potential. There were metas I liked fine last year, but I've always thought the core set kept the classes from being what they *should* be. So I thought this year, with the new core set, and how overall well designed I thought the year of the phoenix was, that we'd have a really healthy, solid meta.
Which -- I think overall we do. I think most match-ups are pretty fair, every class feels imposing, the new core set I think -- overall -- has been a great success. The cards feel impactful, but nothing feels broken.
But I'm really bummed out by how strong Paladin has consistently been for the last year and Blizzard's unwillingness to tone it down even a little. And no-minion mage is just gross. Beatable, but really gross, and forcing a lot of stuff I like playing just out of the meta.
Kibler hit the nail on the head on his stream today. So many people in this community are just never happy. The meta is always “the worse it’s ever been.” People love love love to complain and blame the game for their losses. This happens every single time.
I mean from a guy who's not even going to stream hearthstone tomorrow because he's so annoyed with deck of lunacy mage that's a really weird thing to say. But, mostly he's right.
It's not a weird thing to say in the least. Everyone has the right to take a break if they don't happen to like the way the game is situated at the moment. That's not in any way comparable to putting up threads about people who play meta decks not having integrity or blaming balance for inability to progress on the ladder.
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Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
It's not a weird thing to say in the least. Everyone has the right to take a break if they don't happen to like the way the game is situated at the moment. That's not in any way comparable to putting up threads about people who play meta decks not having integrity or blaming balance for inability to progress on the ladder.
I'm not faulting him, I just think it's funny that he said that the same day he rather emphatically said "I'm not playing tomorrow because of [Lunacy Mage]!!!!"
There have definitely been times where people complained LESS about the meta than now. Of course, people will always complain, that’s the nature of people. But when every class is playable and win rates are closer to 50-55% for everyone, people are generally happier. Right now there are several classes which have no deck at 50%+ and one of the best decks, lunacy mage, is completely rng dependent. Sure, some amount of rng is great for the game. I love discover effects and of course draw related rng is part of the game, but the main reason lunacy mage is so awful to play against is because there are over 100 cards which could possibly be in the mages’ decks after playing lunacy, and it’s impossible to play around them all, so you often end up either over-committing and getting your board wiped or not committing enough and getting out-pressured. It’s totally different than playing against secret Paladin or control warlock because you know all or at least most of the cards in their deck and can adapt your plays accordingly. With lunacy mage, you can’t play around anything and the game is basically already decided based on when they draw deck of lunacy and what cards they get from it, nothing else matters. Games where decisions matter are much more fun and losing is less frustrating if you feel you either got outplayed or it’s simply an unfavored match up.
Pizza, I'm sorry, but you said, "when every class is playable and win rates are closer to 50-55% for everyone, people are generally happier," and at least as far as these forums go, that is just not true.
There have been several instances over the past couple years that fit that description, and there has been no discernible drop in complaint threads. That's the only way I would know to judge such a thing, and by any objective look at the forums, it just ain't so.
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Helpful Clarification on Forbidden Topics for Hearthstone Forums:
Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
Pizza, I'm sorry, but you said, "when every class is playable and win rates are closer to 50-55% for everyone, people are generally happier," and at least as far as these forums go, that is just not true.
There have been several instances over the past couple years that fit that description, and there has been no discernible drop in complaint threads. That's the only way I would know to judge such a thing, and by any objective look at the forums, it just ain't so.
I find that statement to go against logic that has been presented in other threads where you even said not to assess data based on feelings. When it “seems” that the game is rigged, for example, you believe it to be rigged. If there is any amount of people complaining, you say “oh it’s always the same”. If you look at actual data, such as from hearthstone mathematics, or look at it objectively, then no, it’s not always the same. I too have been on the forum quite some time, and no, not every other thread is always a complaint about the same 3 decks.
It's true, there will always be people that complain. But there is a big difference between a community complaining about completely busted cards/decks, and some people complaining about annoying cards or unfavored matchups.
To answer OP's question. Yes, I think after balance patch, the meta will be pretty good. I will probably only complain about Tickatus. And the meta will definately not be "the worst we've ever seen".
EDIT: i believe pizzacats is right btw. When is the last time you saw so many threads about the same deck on this forum? Last expansion, almost no one was complaining about the meta. There were some threads here and there about ramp paladin, which needed a small fix. These complaints were pretty justified.
The thing is, happy people don't often post on the forum to say that they are happy. They just play the game. Unhappy people come here to share their frustration and trying to be heard. So all you see is negative stuff.
There have definitely been times where people complained LESS about the meta than now. Of course, people will always complain, that’s the nature of people. But when every class is playable and win rates are closer to 50-55% for everyone, people are generally happier. Right now there are several classes which have no deck at 50%+ and one of the best decks, lunacy mage, is completely rng dependent. Sure, some amount of rng is great for the game. I love discover effects and of course draw related rng is part of the game, but the main reason lunacy mage is so awful to play against is because there are over 100 cards which could possibly be in the mages’ decks after playing lunacy, and it’s impossible to play around them all, so you often end up either over-committing and getting your board wiped or not committing enough and getting out-pressured. It’s totally different than playing against secret Paladin or control warlock because you know all or at least most of the cards in their deck and can adapt your plays accordingly. With lunacy mage, you can’t play around anything and the game is basically already decided based on when they draw deck of lunacy and what cards they get from it, nothing else matters. Games where decisions matter are much more fun and losing is less frustrating if you feel you either got outplayed or it’s simply an unfavored match up.
You're incorrect. The only class that does not have a positive winrate deck rn is priest. Everything else has a deck that is at least 55% winrate.
I agree that lunacy mage is a problem, but to say that other classes can't be viable is silly.
There have definitely been times where people complained LESS about the meta than now. Of course, people will always complain, that’s the nature of people. But when every class is playable and win rates are closer to 50-55% for everyone, people are generally happier. Right now there are several classes which have no deck at 50%+ and one of the best decks, lunacy mage, is completely rng dependent. Sure, some amount of rng is great for the game. I love discover effects and of course draw related rng is part of the game, but the main reason lunacy mage is so awful to play against is because there are over 100 cards which could possibly be in the mages’ decks after playing lunacy, and it’s impossible to play around them all, so you often end up either over-committing and getting your board wiped or not committing enough and getting out-pressured. It’s totally different than playing against secret Paladin or control warlock because you know all or at least most of the cards in their deck and can adapt your plays accordingly. With lunacy mage, you can’t play around anything and the game is basically already decided based on when they draw deck of lunacy and what cards they get from it, nothing else matters. Games where decisions matter are much more fun and losing is less frustrating if you feel you either got outplayed or it’s simply an unfavored match up.
You're incorrect. The only class that does not have a positive winrate deck rn is priest. Everything else has a deck that is at least 55% winrate.
I agree that lunacy mage is a problem, but to say that other classes can't be viable is silly.
According to what? According to hsreplay tier list, the only decks above 55% are Paladin decks, with no minion mage just shy of 55%. Maybe at higher ranks it changes, but not for the general population. Of course, if you are good enough at a deck or class, you can get close to 55% win rate with anything, but it’s literally impossible for every deck to be 55% win rate because the average win rate HAS to be 50% because it’s a 1v1 game.
There have definitely been times where people complained LESS about the meta than now. Of course, people will always complain, that’s the nature of people. But when every class is playable and win rates are closer to 50-55% for everyone, people are generally happier. Right now there are several classes which have no deck at 50%+ and one of the best decks, lunacy mage, is completely rng dependent. Sure, some amount of rng is great for the game. I love discover effects and of course draw related rng is part of the game, but the main reason lunacy mage is so awful to play against is because there are over 100 cards which could possibly be in the mages’ decks after playing lunacy, and it’s impossible to play around them all, so you often end up either over-committing and getting your board wiped or not committing enough and getting out-pressured. It’s totally different than playing against secret Paladin or control warlock because you know all or at least most of the cards in their deck and can adapt your plays accordingly. With lunacy mage, you can’t play around anything and the game is basically already decided based on when they draw deck of lunacy and what cards they get from it, nothing else matters. Games where decisions matter are much more fun and losing is less frustrating if you feel you either got outplayed or it’s simply an unfavored match up.
I've been playing DoL because I had the entire deck anyway and I highly suggest you watch the DoL video of HS player Viper. He isn't the best at explaining things, but he basically says that people overestimate the amount of randomness that DoL currently creates and he is absolutely right.
Your biggest spells come from a very small range of cards (there even is only 1 9-mana spell in standard right now). This is obviously a big strength of the deck, but it's also one of its biggest weaknesses because as an opponent, you can rather easily predict the big spells based on when your opoonent played Incanter's Flow. If anything, the 3 or lower cost spells are where the RNG sets in and there aren't that many board clears among these. If in doubt, I would rather overcommit than underpressure, unless your opponent was so smart to play both Flows before DoL. The RNG aspect of the deck is frustrating for opponents, but it's definitely not the problem of this deck.
The actual problem is the cost reduction. Nobody would care if Libram of Hope still costs 9. Nobody would care if Nagrand Slam still costs 10. Nobody would care about a 6 mana Skull of Guldan that draws into a 3 mana Hand of Guldan. But the tempo gain and massive card draw in a single turn are problematic.
That being said, I agree that the current winrates of Paladin and Mage in standard create a frustrating experience, especially since 60-80% of your matches are against these two classes. Hearthstone has gone waaaaaaay too far with cost reduction and their ways of countering this (Cult Neophyte, 2-mana Watch Post) create annoying experiences for everyone who isn't attempting to play 10 cards on turn 5.
The funny thing, is that even though there is a lot of complaining absolut rng, that the problem and frustration with lunancy mage is the lack thereof. Pack 4x 7 Mana spell and have about two or more 7 Mana Nagrand Slam every game is just too consistent
There have definitely been times where people complained LESS about the meta than now. Of course, people will always complain, that’s the nature of people. But when every class is playable and win rates are closer to 50-55% for everyone, people are generally happier. Right now there are several classes which have no deck at 50%+ and one of the best decks, lunacy mage, is completely rng dependent. Sure, some amount of rng is great for the game. I love discover effects and of course draw related rng is part of the game, but the main reason lunacy mage is so awful to play against is because there are over 100 cards which could possibly be in the mages’ decks after playing lunacy, and it’s impossible to play around them all, so you often end up either over-committing and getting your board wiped or not committing enough and getting out-pressured. It’s totally different than playing against secret Paladin or control warlock because you know all or at least most of the cards in their deck and can adapt your plays accordingly. With lunacy mage, you can’t play around anything and the game is basically already decided based on when they draw deck of lunacy and what cards they get from it, nothing else matters. Games where decisions matter are much more fun and losing is less frustrating if you feel you either got outplayed or it’s simply an unfavored match up.
I've been playing DoL because I had the entire deck anyway and I highly suggest you watch the DoL video of HS player Viper. He isn't the best at explaining things, but he basically says that people overestimate the amount of randomness that DoL currently creates and he is absolutely right.
Your biggest spells come from a very small range of cards (there even is only 1 9-mana spell in standard right now). This is obviously a big strength of the deck, but it's also one of its biggest weaknesses because as an opponent, you can rather easily predict the big spells based on when your opoonent played Incanter's Flow. If anything, the 3 or lower cost spells are where the RNG sets in and there aren't that many board clears among these. If in doubt, I would rather overcommit than underpressure, unless your opponent was so smart to play both Flows before DoL. The RNG aspect of the deck is frustrating for opponents, but it's definitely not the problem of this deck.
The actual problem is the cost reduction. Nobody would care if Libram of Hope still costs 9. Nobody would care if Nagrand Slam still costs 10. Nobody would care about a 6 mana Skull of Guldan that draws into a 3 mana Hand of Guldan. But the tempo gain and massive card draw in a single turn are problematic.
That being said, I agree that the current winrates of Paladin and Mage in standard create a frustrating experience, especially since 60-80% of your matches are against these two classes. Hearthstone has gone waaaaaaay too far with cost reduction and their ways of countering this (Cult Neophyte, 2-mana Watch Post) create annoying experiences for everyone who isn't attempting to play 10 cards on turn 5.
Yes I understand there is a reduced card pool so it helps with the consistency of the person playing the deck, but you still can’t really play around much as the opponent. Yes you might be able to play around a few of the highest cost cards, but if you are playing around something that never comes, you just end up holding cards, making them effectively dead or a wasted opportunity to create pressure. Yes, I tend to just over-commit and hope they don’t have random board clears, but often they do, and it just feels bad because DoL decided to give them the answer that time, when it wouldn’t have other times. It would be better either if it was less consistent for the person playing the deck by having a worse spell pool or was more expensive. As you said, there’s too much cost reduction and the ability to manipulate your deck to create high frequencies of card draw and cost reduction just feels unreasonable. It should either be more random to make it more memey, or less cost reduction/higher initial mana commitment.
I saw the problems with standard for this expansion a mile away, it doesn't make me special because everyone could see Secret Paladin was going to be stupidly busted. And Deck of Lunacy is a serious problem.
So I have played no games of standard.
But I have watched a lot of streams and it sure looks like Hearthstone has fixed a ton of problems with various classes and also fixed the "too much card generation problem".
I suspect that after the nerfs I might play Standard again.
Priest looks less like a cancerous class and more like a late game class. Hunter is a bit less face oriented and a bit more minion oriented. Rogue with the loss of sap and eviserate looks to be a little more fair. Demon Hunter actually looks fairly "normal" with the loss of Twin Slice and doesn't look like unfair cancer. Shaman doesn't seem to quite have what the other classes have, but Menancing Nimbus in Core is on of the best 2 drops Shaman ever had. And Druid losing Savage Roar means no more token cancer.
If the nerfs manage to properly address current issues without somehow making some other class God Tier, I think they might have Standard in a "good place" for the first time in quite a while.
/One opinion
I’m going to be pessimistic. In the eyes of the community, “no” it won’t be.
Kibler hit the nail on the head on his stream today. So many people in this community are just never happy. The meta is always “the worse it’s ever been.” People love love love to complain and blame the game for their losses. This happens every single time.
A couple of classes are top of the meta game. People whine and complain.
They roll out a balance patch, something else becomes the top of the meta game. People will whine and complain about that.
They could literally roll out a balance patch a week about whatever the community is witch hunting that particular week, and then people would just move onto complaining about the next thing.
Scarily correct. I swear we could simply keep removing cards from the meta till every keyword, battlecry, deathrattle, and steady state ability was out of the game, and people would start posting about how War Golem is too OP.
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Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
I mean, some people will always complain yes but the stats don't lie, this meta sucks atm
This is exactly right. They could prune, and prune, and prune, and prune and all of a sudden “chillwind yeti is beyond broken.”
I really can’t be convinced otherwise, because I’ve been around since beta, and seen the complaining since then. 8 mana mind control, 8 mana pyro was “the worst thing ever,” both got nerfed, people moved on. Miracle rogue came along, got nerfed, people moved on.
It never ends, and to prove it, just save my responses in here for next weeks nerfs. It will take no longer than 48 hours for the next round of complaints to scour the forums. Because again, when people lose, it’s the game’s fault, not theirs.
On an only slightly related note, there's a popular youtuber in the chess community, I think his name is Levy something, but the channel name is Gotham Chess.
Anyway, he's an IM (International Master) which is below a GM in chess rankings, and he just started making this series of videos where he and this other chess player who is considerably better than Gotham both tackle the same chess puzzle. What is interesting and relevant to the discussion here is how incredibly NOT self-conscious the player is about openly comparing himself to a better player and talking about his shortcomings at finding the solutions and what not.
That type of attitude was so refreshing to see after the average Hearthstone forum stuff, I was floored.
Helpful Clarification on Forbidden Topics for Hearthstone Forums:
Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
Thank you for saving me time to comment. You're absolutely right. No matter what, people won't ever be satisfied.
This is the mentality of a mature person that realizes that there is always room for them to grow.
And I really am sick and tired of the RNG complaint. First, and frankly foremost, people know the boat their getting into when it comes to hearthstone/any card game really. Card games, EVERY card game, is going to have variance. If you want to play something that has no variance, go play fifa or something else. You can’t jump in a pool and whine about getting wet.
And second, RNG is only a portion of it. The same names don’t end top 10, top 100, top 500 every month because they’re stars watch over them more than everyone else’s. This game is about realizing your outs, and playing to them. Of course there are going to be games where you get screwed by getting a bad draw, by your opponent getting a god draw, or some Discover card hitting the “perfect” card. See my first point.
Personally, I don’t think people have the right to complain about RNG and play any card game. It’s just nonsense, and is so obviously not the genre they should be playing.
The main thing for me is I thought this meta had REAL potential. There were metas I liked fine last year, but I've always thought the core set kept the classes from being what they *should* be. So I thought this year, with the new core set, and how overall well designed I thought the year of the phoenix was, that we'd have a really healthy, solid meta.
Which -- I think overall we do. I think most match-ups are pretty fair, every class feels imposing, the new core set I think -- overall -- has been a great success. The cards feel impactful, but nothing feels broken.
But I'm really bummed out by how strong Paladin has consistently been for the last year and Blizzard's unwillingness to tone it down even a little. And no-minion mage is just gross. Beatable, but really gross, and forcing a lot of stuff I like playing just out of the meta.
I mean from a guy who's not even going to stream hearthstone tomorrow because he's so annoyed with deck of lunacy mage that's a really weird thing to say. But, mostly he's right.
It's not a weird thing to say in the least. Everyone has the right to take a break if they don't happen to like the way the game is situated at the moment. That's not in any way comparable to putting up threads about people who play meta decks not having integrity or blaming balance for inability to progress on the ladder.
Helpful Clarification on Forbidden Topics for Hearthstone Forums:
Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
I'm not faulting him, I just think it's funny that he said that the same day he rather emphatically said "I'm not playing tomorrow because of [Lunacy Mage]!!!!"
There have definitely been times where people complained LESS about the meta than now. Of course, people will always complain, that’s the nature of people. But when every class is playable and win rates are closer to 50-55% for everyone, people are generally happier. Right now there are several classes which have no deck at 50%+ and one of the best decks, lunacy mage, is completely rng dependent. Sure, some amount of rng is great for the game. I love discover effects and of course draw related rng is part of the game, but the main reason lunacy mage is so awful to play against is because there are over 100 cards which could possibly be in the mages’ decks after playing lunacy, and it’s impossible to play around them all, so you often end up either over-committing and getting your board wiped or not committing enough and getting out-pressured. It’s totally different than playing against secret Paladin or control warlock because you know all or at least most of the cards in their deck and can adapt your plays accordingly. With lunacy mage, you can’t play around anything and the game is basically already decided based on when they draw deck of lunacy and what cards they get from it, nothing else matters. Games where decisions matter are much more fun and losing is less frustrating if you feel you either got outplayed or it’s simply an unfavored match up.
Pizza, I'm sorry, but you said, "when every class is playable and win rates are closer to 50-55% for everyone, people are generally happier," and at least as far as these forums go, that is just not true.
There have been several instances over the past couple years that fit that description, and there has been no discernible drop in complaint threads. That's the only way I would know to judge such a thing, and by any objective look at the forums, it just ain't so.
Helpful Clarification on Forbidden Topics for Hearthstone Forums:
Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
I find that statement to go against logic that has been presented in other threads where you even said not to assess data based on feelings. When it “seems” that the game is rigged, for example, you believe it to be rigged. If there is any amount of people complaining, you say “oh it’s always the same”. If you look at actual data, such as from hearthstone mathematics, or look at it objectively, then no, it’s not always the same. I too have been on the forum quite some time, and no, not every other thread is always a complaint about the same 3 decks.
It's true, there will always be people that complain. But there is a big difference between a community complaining about completely busted cards/decks, and some people complaining about annoying cards or unfavored matchups.
To answer OP's question. Yes, I think after balance patch, the meta will be pretty good. I will probably only complain about Tickatus. And the meta will definately not be "the worst we've ever seen".
EDIT: i believe pizzacats is right btw. When is the last time you saw so many threads about the same deck on this forum? Last expansion, almost no one was complaining about the meta. There were some threads here and there about ramp paladin, which needed a small fix. These complaints were pretty justified.
The thing is, happy people don't often post on the forum to say that they are happy. They just play the game. Unhappy people come here to share their frustration and trying to be heard. So all you see is negative stuff.
You're incorrect. The only class that does not have a positive winrate deck rn is priest. Everything else has a deck that is at least 55% winrate.
I agree that lunacy mage is a problem, but to say that other classes can't be viable is silly.
According to what? According to hsreplay tier list, the only decks above 55% are Paladin decks, with no minion mage just shy of 55%. Maybe at higher ranks it changes, but not for the general population. Of course, if you are good enough at a deck or class, you can get close to 55% win rate with anything, but it’s literally impossible for every deck to be 55% win rate because the average win rate HAS to be 50% because it’s a 1v1 game.
I've been playing DoL because I had the entire deck anyway and I highly suggest you watch the DoL video of HS player Viper. He isn't the best at explaining things, but he basically says that people overestimate the amount of randomness that DoL currently creates and he is absolutely right.
Your biggest spells come from a very small range of cards (there even is only 1 9-mana spell in standard right now). This is obviously a big strength of the deck, but it's also one of its biggest weaknesses because as an opponent, you can rather easily predict the big spells based on when your opoonent played Incanter's Flow. If anything, the 3 or lower cost spells are where the RNG sets in and there aren't that many board clears among these. If in doubt, I would rather overcommit than underpressure, unless your opponent was so smart to play both Flows before DoL. The RNG aspect of the deck is frustrating for opponents, but it's definitely not the problem of this deck.
The actual problem is the cost reduction. Nobody would care if Libram of Hope still costs 9. Nobody would care if Nagrand Slam still costs 10. Nobody would care about a 6 mana Skull of Guldan that draws into a 3 mana Hand of Guldan. But the tempo gain and massive card draw in a single turn are problematic.
That being said, I agree that the current winrates of Paladin and Mage in standard create a frustrating experience, especially since 60-80% of your matches are against these two classes. Hearthstone has gone waaaaaaay too far with cost reduction and their ways of countering this (Cult Neophyte, 2-mana Watch Post) create annoying experiences for everyone who isn't attempting to play 10 cards on turn 5.
The funny thing, is that even though there is a lot of complaining absolut rng, that the problem and frustration with lunancy mage is the lack thereof. Pack 4x 7 Mana spell and have about two or more 7 Mana Nagrand Slam every game is just too consistent
Yes I understand there is a reduced card pool so it helps with the consistency of the person playing the deck, but you still can’t really play around much as the opponent. Yes you might be able to play around a few of the highest cost cards, but if you are playing around something that never comes, you just end up holding cards, making them effectively dead or a wasted opportunity to create pressure. Yes, I tend to just over-commit and hope they don’t have random board clears, but often they do, and it just feels bad because DoL decided to give them the answer that time, when it wouldn’t have other times. It would be better either if it was less consistent for the person playing the deck by having a worse spell pool or was more expensive. As you said, there’s too much cost reduction and the ability to manipulate your deck to create high frequencies of card draw and cost reduction just feels unreasonable. It should either be more random to make it more memey, or less cost reduction/higher initial mana commitment.