Sorry i don't have the link, but about a month ago Reynad on stream took about an hour to explain Blizzard's matchmaking, and although i'm sure it's speculation, he's gathered a mountain of data and was basically predicting his match-ups that entire hour with no deviations. Based on my own experiences it seems to line up. Basically it was this:
1) Every deck you build has independent win/loss data saved by blizzard as you play it (it also looks for identical decks and adds your data to that).
2) When it encounters a deck it is unfamiliar with (say you swap in a rando card) it will take 5 games or 3 wins in a row or 3 losses in a row (whichever comes first) before it starts to stack matches in a certain way against you (see next point)
3) For sure blizzard ramps difficultly both as you rank and as you get win streaks. If you win 3 games in a row, it will start throwing decks at you that are statistically likely to beat you. When you lose 3 in a row, it then reverts to just random deck RNG (no attempt to make it easy - just not stacked)
4) This effect is much more noticeable at ranks up till about 3-4 as at that point the diversity of decks goes way down.
Basically this is why when you load up a new deck, suddenly you are playing against a new meta (because you are).
So what can you learn from this? I have had WAY more success building 4-5 versions of the same deck with minor card variations (like a random Spellbreaker in one, a Frost Elemental in the other) and as soon as I hit a win streak switching to another deck. Has taken me basically from rank 20 to rank 5 in a couple of days (i only get a couple hours a day to play).
TLDR: yup, matchmaking is rigged and you can use that to your benefit. Don't believe me try it.
1
I have Troggzor in the Europe region, and I actually like him quite a bit. I wouldn't say he's a top choice, but if you already have the top ones, I wouldn't be afraid of creating him. I'd pick him over the other two in your initial list of 3 because he can have an immediate impact (i.e., stopping your opponent from casting spells).
1
Seems like Gazlowe would be a good legendary to run this week, then.
1
Liking that idea of having gameboards impact gameplay...that's the first time I've heard that suggestion.
1
Any more conjecture on what the previously datamined chalkboard pictures mean (I listed them here)? I still think these might hint at upcoming brawl rules.
2
Actually, looking more closely at the datamined pictures from the Brawl patch, I think Unstable Portal and Webspinner brawls, at least, are coming:
http://media-hearth.cursecdn.com/attachments/13/765/tavernbrawl_chalkboard4.png
http://media-hearth.cursecdn.com/attachments/13/767/tavernbrawl_chalkboard5.png
Guesses for the others:
http://media-hearth.cursecdn.com/attachments/13/763/tavernbrawl_chalkboard3.png
No idea...a treasure chest full of cards...could this be a random deck of all available cards?
http://media-hearth.cursecdn.com/attachments/13/768/tavernbrawl_chalkboard6.png
No idea, again. A dragon with a broken chain looking at a portal? Or is that supposed to be a timepiece (fast fights?)
http://media-hearth.cursecdn.com/attachments/13/769/tavernbrawl_chalkboard7.png
Totem fight?
http://media-hearth.cursecdn.com/attachments/13/770/tavernbrawl_chalkboard8.png
Dragon being summoned...could be something with large minion decks?
http://media-hearth.cursecdn.com/attachments/13/771/tavernbrawl_chalkboard9_wide.png
A gorilla (Mukla) looking at a card, with the number '1'...could that be small minion decks (of which Mukla would be the king)?
Of course, take this with a grain of salt, because the Nef versus Rag drawing wasn't datamined...
1
You can also finish your daily quests there, if they're not class-specific. Playing as Nef is a great way to finish off the 'play minions of 5 mana or higher' quest quickly,
1
The number of tavern wins is currently just used for matchmaking purposes, per Blizzard's tweets last week.
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- 30 Unstable Portals
- 30 Webspinners
- Nothing but shredders (probably need to increase hero health for this)
- Random decks built before each game from the player's collection, preferably without their seeing the end result beforehand
1
I don't think they're anything like tournaments. They're just a place to play with new rules for a week. Basically, a different version of casual that will hopefully be more fun.
2
Yes, just for fun. And frankly, depending on where you are on the ladder, brawl matches might be easier for completing your dailies, and won't hurt your ranking. Though, not sure how the brawl MMR will work.