There's somewhere around 740 different spells to choose from if we include Scholomance, according to Hearthstonetopdecks.
I've done a very quick evaluation of all of them and sorted them in three categories; almost never good, almost never bad, and somewhat neutral. The lists are in the bottom of my post.
Almost never good are cards that will generally just fuck your shit up - those are the cards you're asking about. There are 20 spells in this category.
Almost never bad includes cards that only destroy or deal damage to enemies or only generate resources for you. I've not included any cards that remove cards from your deck in this category, since getting fatigued by Reno is a very real possibility. I've also not included cards that generate too many minions on your board or cards in your hand, since cluttering can also be problematic, but generally cards that create 1-2 cards in hand or minions on board, I've counted as almost never bad. There are 255 spells in this category.
Somewhat neutral is everything else, which is 740-20-255=465 spells. I'll assume these have good and bad outcomes at the same rate, so 50/50. That means we can count half these cards as bad and the other half as good, for the purpose of probability.
Thus, a rough estimate of the odds of a good outcome is 487,5/740, or roughly 66%, and of a bad outcome is 252,5/740, or roughly 34%.
There's somewhere around 740 different spells to choose from if we include Scholomance, according to Hearthstonetopdecks.
I've done a very quick evaluation of all of them and sorted them in three categories; almost never good, almost never bad, and somewhat neutral. The lists are in the bottom of my post.
Almost never good are cards that will generally just fuck your shit up - those are the cards you're asking about. There are 20 spells in this category.
Almost never bad includes cards that only destroy or deal damage to enemies or only generate resources for you. I've not included any cards that remove cards from your deck in this category, since getting fatigued by Reno is a very real possibility. I've also not included cards that generate too many minions on your board or cards in your hand, since cluttering can also be problematic, but generally cards that create 1-2 cards in hand or minions on board, I've counted as almost never bad. There are 255 spells in this category.
Somewhat neutral is everything else, which is 740-20-255=465 spells. I'll assume these have good and bad outcomes at the same rate, so 50/50. That means we can count half these cards as bad and the other half as good, for the purpose of probability.
Thus, a rough estimate of the odds of a good outcome is 487,5/740, or roughly 66%, and of a bad outcome is 252,5/740, or roughly 34%.
There's somewhere around 740 different spells to choose from if we include Scholomance, according to Hearthstonetopdecks.
I've done a very quick evaluation of all of them and sorted them in three categories; almost never good, almost never bad, and somewhat neutral. The lists are in the bottom of my post.
Almost never good are cards that will generally just fuck your shit up - those are the cards you're asking about. There are 20 spells in this category.
Almost never bad includes cards that only destroy or deal damage to enemies or only generate resources for you. I've not included any cards that remove cards from your deck in this category, since getting fatigued by Reno is a very real possibility. I've also not included cards that generate too many minions on your board or cards in your hand, since cluttering can also be problematic, but generally cards that create 1-2 cards in hand or minions on board, I've counted as almost never bad. There are 255 spells in this category.
Somewhat neutral is everything else, which is 740-20-255=465 spells. I'll assume these have good and bad outcomes at the same rate, so 50/50. That means we can count half these cards as bad and the other half as good, for the purpose of probability.
Thus, a rough estimate of the odds of a good outcome is 487,5/740, or roughly 66%, and of a bad outcome is 252,5/740, or roughly 34%.
Here are the lists:
Almost never good:
Astral communion
Cataclysm
Daring escape
dinomancy
Explore un’goro
Forbidden flame
Forbidden healing
Forbidden ritual
Forbidden words
Living mana
Myra’s unstable element
Naturalize
Nature studies
Plague of flames
Purify
Renounce darkness
Shriek
Spirit bomb
Surrender to madness
Treachery
Almost never bad
A light in the darkness
A new challenger
Academic espionage
Adaptation
Adorable infestation
Air raid
Ancient mysteries
Animal companion
Any fin can happen
Arcane explosion
Arcane missiles
Assassinate
Astral rift
Athletic studies
Autodefense matrix
Avenge
Avenging wrath
Ball of spiders
Bamboozle
Bear trap
Bestial wrath
Betrayal
Big bad voodoo
Bite
Blade dance
Blazing invocation
Blessing of the ancients
Blessing of wisdom
Blizzard
Bloodlust
Blur
Bolster
Boom squad
Burgle
Call of the void
Call of the wild
Cannon barrage
Carrion studies
Cat trick
Charge
Cheat death
Cinderstorm
Claw
Clear the way
Cleave
Clever disguise
Cloning device
Command the illidari
competitive spirit
Conceal
Consecration
Consume magic
Coordinated strike
corruption
counterfeit coin
counterspell
crushing walls
curse of rafaam
curse of weakness
dark prophecy
dart trap
deadly poison
deadly shot
deep freeze
demon companion
demonic studies
desperate measures
dimensional ripper
dirty tricks
divine hymn
dr boom’s scheme
draconic studies
dragon roar
dragon’s hoard
dragon’s pack
dreamway guardians
duplicate
earthen scales
effigy
elemental allies
elemental evocation
embrace darkness
envenom weapon
eternal servitude
evasion
every fin is awesome
evolving spores
execute
explosive runes
explosive trap
eye for an eye
felosophy
feral rage
fiendish rites
fist of jaraxxus
flame ward
flamecannon
flamestrike
floop’s glorious goop
Free from amber
freezing potion
freezing trap
frost nova
frost shock
frozen clone
germination
getaway todo
gift of the wild
glacial mysteries
greater arcane missiles
greater healing potion
hallucination
headcrack
healing rain
heavy metal!
heroic strike
hidden cache
holy nova
holy ripple
I know a guy
ice barrier
ice block
in formation!
incanter’s flow
inner demon
innervate
into the fray
invocation of frost
iron hide
ironforge portal
jade blossom
journey below
kangor’s endless army
landscaping
leeching poison
lesser diamond spellstone
lesser emerald spellstone
lesser mithril spellstone
lesser onyx spellstone
lesser pearl spellstone
lesser ruby spellstone
lesser sapphire spellstone
lightforged blessing
luna’s pocket galaxy
maelstrom portal
magic trick
mana bind
mana burn
mark of the lotus
mass dispel
mass resurrection
master’s call
mind blast
mind control
mind vision
mindgames
mirror entity
mirror image
misdirection
molten reflection
Nagrand slam
Netherwind portal
never surrender!
nine lives
noble sacrifice
omega assembly
overgrowth
pack tactics
parter assignment
pick pocket
pilfer
pint-size potion
play dead
potion of madness
potion of polymorph
pounce
power of creation
power of the wild
power word: glory
power word: replicate
preparation
pressure plate
primordial glyph
primordial studies
protect the king!
psionic probe
radiance
rat trap
raven idol
rebuke
redemption
repentance
resurrect
righteous cause
righteousness
rockbiter weapon
sabotage
sacred trial
sanctuary
savage roar
seal of light
seance
secret plan
secure the deck
shadow essence
shadow madness
shadow visions
simulacrum
sinister deal
sinister strike
smuggler’s crate
smuggler’s run
snake trap
snipe
soul cleave
soul infusion
soul of the forest
soul split
soulfire
spellbender
spreading plague
stampede
stolen goods
stolen steel
strength in numbers
sudden betrayal
survival of the fittest
swarm of locusts
swipe
thoughtsteal
time out!
tinker’s sharpsword oil
to my side!
tome of intellect
toxic reinforcements
twilight’s call
twin slice
twisted knowledge
unexpected results
unidentified shield
unleash the beast
unleash the hounds
unstable portal
upgrade
vaporize
venomstrike trap
violet haze
vivid nightmare
vivid spores
wandering monster
wave of apathy
waxmancy
webweave
whispers of EVIL
worthy expedition
Give this man a raise
At first I was going to point out it's probably a woman seeing the name 'Jennifer.'
There's somewhere around 740 different spells to choose from if we include Scholomance, according to Hearthstonetopdecks.
I've done a very quick evaluation of all of them and sorted them in three categories; almost never good, almost never bad, and somewhat neutral. The lists are in the bottom of my post.
Almost never good are cards that will generally just fuck your shit up - those are the cards you're asking about. There are 20 spells in this category.
Almost never bad includes cards that only destroy or deal damage to enemies or only generate resources for you. I've not included any cards that remove cards from your deck in this category, since getting fatigued by Reno is a very real possibility. I've also not included cards that generate too many minions on your board or cards in your hand, since cluttering can also be problematic, but generally cards that create 1-2 cards in hand or minions on board, I've counted as almost never bad. There are 255 spells in this category.
Somewhat neutral is everything else, which is 740-20-255=465 spells. I'll assume these have good and bad outcomes at the same rate, so 50/50. That means we can count half these cards as bad and the other half as good, for the purpose of probability.
Thus, a rough estimate of the odds of a good outcome is 487,5/740, or roughly 66%, and of a bad outcome is 252,5/740, or roughly 34%.
Holy crap you're a godsend! Thank you so much, you have no idea how much this means to me and thank you again for putting so much into this post!
You're welcome! I had been wondering the same thing for a while, it was good to find out.
Remember that the odds vary depending on game state, particularly the number of targets on your side vs their side and the number of cards in your hand and deck.
There's somewhere around 740 different spells to choose from if we include Scholomance, according to Hearthstonetopdecks.
I've done a very quick evaluation of all of them and sorted them in three categories; almost never good, almost never bad, and somewhat neutral. The lists are in the bottom of my post.
Almost never good are cards that will generally just fuck your shit up - those are the cards you're asking about. There are 20 spells in this category.
Almost never bad includes cards that only destroy or deal damage to enemies or only generate resources for you. I've not included any cards that remove cards from your deck in this category, since getting fatigued by Reno is a very real possibility. I've also not included cards that generate too many minions on your board or cards in your hand, since cluttering can also be problematic, but generally cards that create 1-2 cards in hand or minions on board, I've counted as almost never bad. There are 255 spells in this category.
Somewhat neutral is everything else, which is 740-20-255=465 spells. I'll assume these have good and bad outcomes at the same rate, so 50/50. That means we can count half these cards as bad and the other half as good, for the purpose of probability.
Thus, a rough estimate of the odds of a good outcome is 487,5/740, or roughly 66%, and of a bad outcome is 252,5/740, or roughly 34%.
Here are the lists:
Almost never good:
Astral communion
Cataclysm
Daring escape
dinomancy
Explore un’goro
Forbidden flame
Forbidden healing
Forbidden ritual
Forbidden words
Living mana
Myra’s unstable element
Naturalize
Nature studies
Plague of flames
Purify
Renounce darkness
Shriek
Spirit bomb
Surrender to madness
Treachery
Almost never bad
A light in the darkness
A new challenger
Academic espionage
Adaptation
Adorable infestation
Air raid
Ancient mysteries
Animal companion
Any fin can happen
Arcane explosion
Arcane missiles
Assassinate
Astral rift
Athletic studies
Autodefense matrix
Avenge
Avenging wrath
Ball of spiders
Bamboozle
Bear trap
Bestial wrath
Betrayal
Big bad voodoo
Bite
Blade dance
Blazing invocation
Blessing of the ancients
Blessing of wisdom
Blizzard
Bloodlust
Blur
Bolster
Boom squad
Burgle
Call of the void
Call of the wild
Cannon barrage
Carrion studies
Cat trick
Charge
Cheat death
Cinderstorm
Claw
Clear the way
Cleave
Clever disguise
Cloning device
Command the illidari
competitive spirit
Conceal
Consecration
Consume magic
Coordinated strike
corruption
counterfeit coin
counterspell
crushing walls
curse of rafaam
curse of weakness
dark prophecy
dart trap
deadly poison
deadly shot
deep freeze
demon companion
demonic studies
desperate measures
dimensional ripper
dirty tricks
divine hymn
dr boom’s scheme
draconic studies
dragon roar
dragon’s hoard
dragon’s pack
dreamway guardians
duplicate
earthen scales
effigy
elemental allies
elemental evocation
embrace darkness
envenom weapon
eternal servitude
evasion
every fin is awesome
evolving spores
execute
explosive runes
explosive trap
eye for an eye
felosophy
feral rage
fiendish rites
fist of jaraxxus
flame ward
flamecannon
flamestrike
floop’s glorious goop
Free from amber
freezing potion
freezing trap
frost nova
frost shock
frozen clone
germination
getaway todo
gift of the wild
glacial mysteries
greater arcane missiles
greater healing potion
hallucination
headcrack
healing rain
heavy metal!
heroic strike
hidden cache
holy nova
holy ripple
I know a guy
ice barrier
ice block
in formation!
incanter’s flow
inner demon
innervate
into the fray
invocation of frost
iron hide
ironforge portal
jade blossom
journey below
kangor’s endless army
landscaping
leeching poison
lesser diamond spellstone
lesser emerald spellstone
lesser mithril spellstone
lesser onyx spellstone
lesser pearl spellstone
lesser ruby spellstone
lesser sapphire spellstone
lightforged blessing
luna’s pocket galaxy
maelstrom portal
magic trick
mana bind
mana burn
mark of the lotus
mass dispel
mass resurrection
master’s call
mind blast
mind control
mind vision
mindgames
mirror entity
mirror image
misdirection
molten reflection
Nagrand slam
Netherwind portal
never surrender!
nine lives
noble sacrifice
omega assembly
overgrowth
pack tactics
parter assignment
pick pocket
pilfer
pint-size potion
play dead
potion of madness
potion of polymorph
pounce
power of creation
power of the wild
power word: glory
power word: replicate
preparation
pressure plate
primordial glyph
primordial studies
protect the king!
psionic probe
radiance
rat trap
raven idol
rebuke
redemption
repentance
resurrect
righteous cause
righteousness
rockbiter weapon
sabotage
sacred trial
sanctuary
savage roar
seal of light
seance
secret plan
secure the deck
shadow essence
shadow madness
shadow visions
simulacrum
sinister deal
sinister strike
smuggler’s crate
smuggler’s run
snake trap
snipe
soul cleave
soul infusion
soul of the forest
soul split
soulfire
spellbender
spreading plague
stampede
stolen goods
stolen steel
strength in numbers
sudden betrayal
survival of the fittest
swarm of locusts
swipe
thoughtsteal
time out!
tinker’s sharpsword oil
to my side!
tome of intellect
toxic reinforcements
twilight’s call
twin slice
twisted knowledge
unexpected results
unidentified shield
unleash the beast
unleash the hounds
unstable portal
upgrade
vaporize
venomstrike trap
violet haze
vivid nightmare
vivid spores
wandering monster
wave of apathy
waxmancy
webweave
whispers of EVIL
worthy expedition
quoting because i can, and want to say thank you, you did want many people wanted! you are a god among hearthstoners!
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To live is to suffer, to survive is to find meaning in the suffer!
There's somewhere around 740 different spells to choose from if we include Scholomance, according to Hearthstonetopdecks.
I've done a very quick evaluation of all of them and sorted them in three categories; almost never good, almost never bad, and somewhat neutral. The lists are in the bottom of my post.
Almost never good are cards that will generally just fuck your shit up - those are the cards you're asking about. There are 20 spells in this category.
Almost never bad includes cards that only destroy or deal damage to enemies or only generate resources for you. I've not included any cards that remove cards from your deck in this category, since getting fatigued by Reno is a very real possibility. I've also not included cards that generate too many minions on your board or cards in your hand, since cluttering can also be problematic, but generally cards that create 1-2 cards in hand or minions on board, I've counted as almost never bad. There are 255 spells in this category.
Somewhat neutral is everything else, which is 740-20-255=465 spells. I'll assume these have good and bad outcomes at the same rate, so 50/50. That means we can count half these cards as bad and the other half as good, for the purpose of probability.
Thus, a rough estimate of the odds of a good outcome is 487,5/740, or roughly 66%, and of a bad outcome is 252,5/740, or roughly 34%.
Here are the lists:
Almost never good:
Astral communion
Cataclysm
Daring escape
dinomancy
Explore un’goro
Forbidden flame
Forbidden healing
Forbidden ritual
Forbidden words
Living mana
Myra’s unstable element
Naturalize
Nature studies
Plague of flames
Purify
Renounce darkness
Shriek
Spirit bomb
Surrender to madness
Treachery
Almost never bad
A light in the darkness
A new challenger
Academic espionage
Adaptation
Adorable infestation
Air raid
Ancient mysteries
Animal companion
Any fin can happen
Arcane explosion
Arcane missiles
Assassinate
Astral rift
Athletic studies
Autodefense matrix
Avenge
Avenging wrath
Ball of spiders
Bamboozle
Bear trap
Bestial wrath
Betrayal
Big bad voodoo
Bite
Blade dance
Blazing invocation
Blessing of the ancients
Blessing of wisdom
Blizzard
Bloodlust
Blur
Bolster
Boom squad
Burgle
Call of the void
Call of the wild
Cannon barrage
Carrion studies
Cat trick
Charge
Cheat death
Cinderstorm
Claw
Clear the way
Cleave
Clever disguise
Cloning device
Command the illidari
competitive spirit
Conceal
Consecration
Consume magic
Coordinated strike
corruption
counterfeit coin
counterspell
crushing walls
curse of rafaam
curse of weakness
dark prophecy
dart trap
deadly poison
deadly shot
deep freeze
demon companion
demonic studies
desperate measures
dimensional ripper
dirty tricks
divine hymn
dr boom’s scheme
draconic studies
dragon roar
dragon’s hoard
dragon’s pack
dreamway guardians
duplicate
earthen scales
effigy
elemental allies
elemental evocation
embrace darkness
envenom weapon
eternal servitude
evasion
every fin is awesome
evolving spores
execute
explosive runes
explosive trap
eye for an eye
felosophy
feral rage
fiendish rites
fist of jaraxxus
flame ward
flamecannon
flamestrike
floop’s glorious goop
Free from amber
freezing potion
freezing trap
frost nova
frost shock
frozen clone
germination
getaway todo
gift of the wild
glacial mysteries
greater arcane missiles
greater healing potion
hallucination
headcrack
healing rain
heavy metal!
heroic strike
hidden cache
holy nova
holy ripple
I know a guy
ice barrier
ice block
in formation!
incanter’s flow
inner demon
innervate
into the fray
invocation of frost
iron hide
ironforge portal
jade blossom
journey below
kangor’s endless army
landscaping
leeching poison
lesser diamond spellstone
lesser emerald spellstone
lesser mithril spellstone
lesser onyx spellstone
lesser pearl spellstone
lesser ruby spellstone
lesser sapphire spellstone
lightforged blessing
luna’s pocket galaxy
maelstrom portal
magic trick
mana bind
mana burn
mark of the lotus
mass dispel
mass resurrection
master’s call
mind blast
mind control
mind vision
mindgames
mirror entity
mirror image
misdirection
molten reflection
Nagrand slam
Netherwind portal
never surrender!
nine lives
noble sacrifice
omega assembly
overgrowth
pack tactics
parter assignment
pick pocket
pilfer
pint-size potion
play dead
potion of madness
potion of polymorph
pounce
power of creation
power of the wild
power word: glory
power word: replicate
preparation
pressure plate
primordial glyph
primordial studies
protect the king!
psionic probe
radiance
rat trap
raven idol
rebuke
redemption
repentance
resurrect
righteous cause
righteousness
rockbiter weapon
sabotage
sacred trial
sanctuary
savage roar
seal of light
seance
secret plan
secure the deck
shadow essence
shadow madness
shadow visions
simulacrum
sinister deal
sinister strike
smuggler’s crate
smuggler’s run
snake trap
snipe
soul cleave
soul infusion
soul of the forest
soul split
soulfire
spellbender
spreading plague
stampede
stolen goods
stolen steel
strength in numbers
sudden betrayal
survival of the fittest
swarm of locusts
swipe
thoughtsteal
time out!
tinker’s sharpsword oil
to my side!
tome of intellect
toxic reinforcements
twilight’s call
twin slice
twisted knowledge
unexpected results
unidentified shield
unleash the beast
unleash the hounds
unstable portal
upgrade
vaporize
venomstrike trap
violet haze
vivid nightmare
vivid spores
wandering monster
wave of apathy
waxmancy
webweave
whispers of EVIL
worthy expedition
Give this man a raise
At first I was going to point out it's probably a woman seeing the name 'Jennifer.'
Then I saw the battetag was: BangkokJizz#2238
So I am not sure what to think anymore.
we can ask... maybe we get an answer...
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To live is to suffer, to survive is to find meaning in the suffer!
Great list but still can't understand why Nature Studies are "almost never good".
That's a mistake. I made those lists very quickly, so surely there are a few blunders, but it's probably not that significant to the overall probabilities.
I may have accidentally switched it with soulfire, which is in the "almost never bad" list for some reason.
Just saying there are "good" and "bad" outcomes is a little too simple and the criteria for "good" and "bad" are also debatable.
First of all not every "not bad" outcome is a good outcome. Without going too much into detail, any spell that does exaclty nothing like Innervate, Deadly Poison, Biology Project and many more is already a "bad" outcome because you essentially have no hero power that turn. It won't harm you, but given that you gave up your hero power, you have to hope for an outcome that is at least lightly beneficial to you.
As the posting only briefly mentioned, overdraw is a concern, and in that regard, spells like Ultimate Infestation, Sprint, or Overflow can be outright disastrous, and are more likely to mess you up than Daring Escape or Purify. And all sorts of buff spells like Spikeridged Steed are generally more likely to benefit your opponent, just because you play a deck with The Amazing Reno in it and very often will have fewer minions, and (almost) guaranteed no minion on your first turn after you played Reno.
I won't go through the entire "neutral" category, but with these things to consider, "half-good, half-bad" seems a bit too generous to me and the "66% good" as misleading.
Just saying there are "good" and "bad" outcomes is a little too simple and the criteria for "good" and "bad" are also debatable.
First of all not every "not bad" outcome is a good outcome. Without going too much into detail, any spell that does exaclty nothing like Innervate, Deadly Poison, Biology Project and many more is already a "bad" outcome because you essentially have no hero power that turn. It won't harm you, but given that you gave up your hero power, you have to hope for an outcome that is at least lightly beneficial to you.
As the posting only briefly mentioned, overdraw is a concern, and in that regard, spells like Ultimate Infestation, Sprint, or Overflow can be outright disastrous, and are more likely to mess you up than Daring Escape or Purify. And all sorts of buff spells like Spikeridged Steed are generally more likely to benefit your opponent, just because you play a deck with The Amazing Reno in it and very often will have fewer minions, and (almost) guaranteed no minion on your first turn after you played Reno.
I won't go through the entire "neutral" category, but with these things to consider, "half-good, half-bad" seems a bit too generous to me and the "66% good" as misleading.
That's right, which is why the lists are "almost never bad" and "almost never good" as opposed to simply "good" and "bad". I realise I mixed it up in the end, but I think most people are smart enough to get the point.
There are no spells that draw cards in the "almost never bad" list, since it depends entirely on the game state whether card draw is beneficial. This is true for pretty much all the somewhat neutral cards, I think.
Just as spikeridged may hit an enemy, so may fireball. I've assumed such things balance each other out in the big picture, because I didn't want to do the math.
It should go without saying that this analysis is based on simplifications. My evaluation criteria and assumptions are clearly stated, and whether or not you think they are too generous is entirely up to you. I do think the result is a valid evaluation of the overall quality of the hero power.
Feel free to do a more in depth analysis yourself!
is there a probability guide of some sort to tell me I'm which ways reno can screw with me in the wild format? And does it happen more often than not?
A lot?
Let's try to find out!
There's somewhere around 740 different spells to choose from if we include Scholomance, according to Hearthstonetopdecks.
I've done a very quick evaluation of all of them and sorted them in three categories; almost never good, almost never bad, and somewhat neutral. The lists are in the bottom of my post.
Almost never good are cards that will generally just fuck your shit up - those are the cards you're asking about. There are 20 spells in this category.
Almost never bad includes cards that only destroy or deal damage to enemies or only generate resources for you. I've not included any cards that remove cards from your deck in this category, since getting fatigued by Reno is a very real possibility. I've also not included cards that generate too many minions on your board or cards in your hand, since cluttering can also be problematic, but generally cards that create 1-2 cards in hand or minions on board, I've counted as almost never bad. There are 255 spells in this category.
Somewhat neutral is everything else, which is 740-20-255=465 spells. I'll assume these have good and bad outcomes at the same rate, so 50/50. That means we can count half these cards as bad and the other half as good, for the purpose of probability.
Thus, a rough estimate of the odds of a good outcome is 487,5/740, or roughly 66%, and of a bad outcome is 252,5/740, or roughly 34%.
Here are the lists:
Almost never good:
Almost never bad
Give this man a raise
At first I was going to point out it's probably a woman seeing the name 'Jennifer.'
Then I saw the battetag was: BangkokJizz#2238
So I am not sure what to think anymore.
Not all heroes wear capes
I guess it's never too late to start!
Holy crap you're a godsend! Thank you so much, you have no idea how much this means to me and thank you again for putting so much into this post!
You're welcome! I had been wondering the same thing for a while, it was good to find out.
Remember that the odds vary depending on game state, particularly the number of targets on your side vs their side and the number of cards in your hand and deck.
quoting because i can, and want to say thank you, you did want many people wanted! you are a god among hearthstoners!
To live is to suffer, to survive is to find meaning in the suffer!
Great list but still can't understand why Nature Studies are "almost never good".
we can ask... maybe we get an answer...
To live is to suffer, to survive is to find meaning in the suffer!
That's a mistake. I made those lists very quickly, so surely there are a few blunders, but it's probably not that significant to the overall probabilities.
I may have accidentally switched it with soulfire, which is in the "almost never bad" list for some reason.
Just saying there are "good" and "bad" outcomes is a little too simple and the criteria for "good" and "bad" are also debatable.
First of all not every "not bad" outcome is a good outcome. Without going too much into detail, any spell that does exaclty nothing like Innervate, Deadly Poison, Biology Project and many more is already a "bad" outcome because you essentially have no hero power that turn. It won't harm you, but given that you gave up your hero power, you have to hope for an outcome that is at least lightly beneficial to you.
As the posting only briefly mentioned, overdraw is a concern, and in that regard, spells like Ultimate Infestation, Sprint, or Overflow can be outright disastrous, and are more likely to mess you up than Daring Escape or Purify. And all sorts of buff spells like Spikeridged Steed are generally more likely to benefit your opponent, just because you play a deck with The Amazing Reno in it and very often will have fewer minions, and (almost) guaranteed no minion on your first turn after you played Reno.
I won't go through the entire "neutral" category, but with these things to consider, "half-good, half-bad" seems a bit too generous to me and the "66% good" as misleading.
That's right, which is why the lists are "almost never bad" and "almost never good" as opposed to simply "good" and "bad". I realise I mixed it up in the end, but I think most people are smart enough to get the point.
There are no spells that draw cards in the "almost never bad" list, since it depends entirely on the game state whether card draw is beneficial. This is true for pretty much all the somewhat neutral cards, I think.
Just as spikeridged may hit an enemy, so may fireball. I've assumed such things balance each other out in the big picture, because I didn't want to do the math.
It should go without saying that this analysis is based on simplifications. My evaluation criteria and assumptions are clearly stated, and whether or not you think they are too generous is entirely up to you. I do think the result is a valid evaluation of the overall quality of the hero power.
Feel free to do a more in depth analysis yourself!