How come when someone raise this issue a lot of people just come in and state this is a conspiracy theory with tin foil hat on?
I have the same exact concern with OP. A deck seems only to work well, in Constructed, when it is newly made. Then after winning a few solid games the draws are so bad and you go on a losing streak. This doesn't happen all the time but it does happen often.
I think people state it as a conspiracy theory because it sounds like one, at least if my understanding is the idea that Blizzard is altering your matchups on ladder to assure you run into bad matchups. Mainly because, like you stated, it doesn't happen all the time but it happens often; it's likely just ladder variance at work, which is why I can run hot with Token Druid for 30 games and then go on a 6-7 game losing streak like I did last season. It's also why it sometimes ends up that swapping decks to try and counter your local meta can lead to instantly running into the bad matchups for the new deck (I've had this happen a lot lol).
The main issue I think is that it's generally with small sample sizes and it's not something that can reliably be recreated. There's actually merit to switching decks, and someone actually did the analysis on it over on the Hearthstone subreddit forever ago; unfortunately I can't seem to find it, but basically the idea is that you have a % chance of running into one of the top meta decks and you're trying to capitalize on that. Even that wasn't super reliable, but it was at least an interesting angle to trying to reduce variance on ladder.
For the most part you should be alright sticking to one deck, and if it's good against the top decks you're going to be fine. Ladder is very streaky, so generally you won't have a very good idea until about 30-40 games in at least (most Pros appear to use 100 games as their test for competitive viability).
Edit: I found the Reddit post here. I still wouldn't suggest switching decks like crazy unless your deck is just unable to compete, but it's interestingto see the theory someone had based outside of the "Blizzard wants me to lose" mindset.
I think people state it as a conspiracy theory because it sounds like one, at least if my understanding is the idea that Blizzard is altering your matchups on ladder to assure you run into bad matchups.
Most likely, that kind of effect is a result of random variance and doesn't hold up to testing.
That said, since it's pretty clear that there is an MMR being maintained for ranked ladder players, even if it's not the primary means of matchmaking, it's very possible that matchmaking to some extent depends on it. For example, the game may try to match players first by rank and then by MMR within that. If that were the case, a few wins might lead to slightly increased MMR and matching against stronger players, which leads to losses.
It's also possible that something else like time of day is affecting this. Play quality at high ranks is definitely higher at peak periods, so someone who's playing at rank 5+ just before the start of prime time may have some success for an hour or so and then find things more difficult. If they're changing decks daily, it may seem like the new deck is the reason when in fact it's an unrelated effect.
@Lysenko; I'd agree it's probably variance. At the very least it absolutely does also depend on time of day and meta shifts that come alongside that. I think it's also possible people forget that 55-60% winrate is actually solid, but that means that in an 8 game sample you can easily win 4 and lose 4 while still being on target for that winrate.
I did track down an article where Max McCall went a bit more in depth about it though, and it looks like Ranked mode really doesn't care about MMR and tries to match you with people close to your actual rank (it really only uses the internal MMR for matchups with Legend players I'm guessing).
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Articles I suggest every player reads to improve at the game;
I experience this all the time. What's even worse is that there are days, that I cannot win. I lose 6 straight, go to arena for 0-3, Go back to ranked and lose 4 straight. Punch the computer and go to bed.
Next day: Win 10 straight with the same deck. I haven't figured out why there are streaks like that. I've learned that I just need to get off that day, when I'm having one and wait for a day or two, Then the win streaks happen again. Usually happens about twice per month. /shrug
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There are 3 kinds of people in the world. Those that can count and those that can't.
I experience this all the time. What's even worse is that there are days, that I cannot win. I lose 6 straight, go to arena for 0-3, Go back to ranked and lose 4 straight. Punch the computer and go to bed.
Next day: Win 10 straight with the same deck. I haven't figured out why there are streaks like that. I've learned that I just need to get off that day, when I'm having one and wait for a day or two, Then the win streaks happen again. Usually happens about twice per month. /shrug
I think it is suffice to say that what you just described fits 95% if not or more of players experience. I've had instances where I logged in on Saturday evening and lose 7 games in a row by playing the same deck and then when playing the EXACT same deck on Sunday afternoon I would go on a winning streak of say like 15 games. The extreme of these winning and losing odds cannot be simply defined as "Random". I've played card games for many many years and the instances where I would consistently draw into bad hands are limited in very rare occasion but does happen. The fact that in Hearthstone this kind of bullshit happens more often to the point where I think the system is most likely skewed.
I think it is suffice to say that what you just described fits 95% if not or more of players experience. I've had instances where I logged in on Saturday evening and lose 7 games in a row by playing the same deck and then when playing the EXACT same deck on Sunday afternoon I would go on a winning streak of say like 15 games. The extreme of these winning and losing odds cannot be simply defined as "Random". I've played card games for many many years and the instances where I would consistently draw into bad hands are limited in very rare occasion but does happen. The fact that in Hearthstone this kind of bullshit happens more often to the point where I think the system is most likely skewed.
Or you suffer from some confirmation bias. It's a matter of what's more likely: You having bad luck, or the game being programmed to favor your opponent. Since there is no evidence to support the latter... I'll lean towards saying: Shit happens.
its not programmed to favor the opponent, it just increases the success rate of some variables ingame for you. its actually quite simple to achieve this through an algorithm. they do this with all their games..
its not programmed to favor the opponent, it just increases the success rate of some variables ingame for you. its actually quite simple to achieve this through an algorithm. they do this with all their games..
must be easy to spout all this nonsense about tinfoil hats when not being able to provide any counter arguments. and you wonder why blizzfanbois arent taken seriously
You said you reached rank 12. Not very impressive. Prolly played like 50 games to get there. Best decks can get a 60% wr on ladder. The bigger the sample size the closer you are to expected wr. To hit legend you need to play 200-250 games in aseason.
Yeah bro I reached Rank 12and I started playing Hearthstone after the Un'Goro expansion release, I never touched the game before.
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My Secret Mage deck got me from 15 to Legend. Check it out HERE
Just keep playing. You will eventuall get past rank 18... I am a legend player and I am stuck for a few hours every month at 14-10, but from 10 to 5 it is a lot easiers from my point of view...Just keep playin.
its not programmed to favor the opponent, it just increases the success rate of some variables ingame for you. its actually quite simple to achieve this through an algorithm. they do this with all their games..
must be easy to spout all this nonsense about tinfoil hats when not being able to provide any counter arguments. and you wonder why blizzfanbois arent taken seriously
Agreed. I seriously can't comprehend why does so many people on the forum jump to defense for Blizzard about this "skewed" match making possibility and bad draw consistency.
I mean wouldn't it be easier just to keep an open mind about these things without simply putting everything to "Random"?
In Diablo 3, the drop rates for items and quality of those drop rates can be easily controlled and manipulated. The exact thing can be done for Hearthstone with ease.
Ya MMR is so messed up I hit r5-legend each season and I only ever get matched against opponents with gold portrait, legend card back who are playing T1 decks and get good curve, what gives blizz?
How come I still win games even though I'm so unlucky on MMR? I am so confused!
MMR is working, classes/decks faced are random as that's not part of MMR. Card draw and mulligans are rng, if it's that bad you are being unlucky, that's all.
You honestly think with 70m players world wide blizz has singled you out to keep you forever locked above r15?
Good grief. I dare you to kick the football again Charlie Brown.
Well, OP thread is clearly not bright, but let me say a few things. I have more than 4k wins in ranked play, and i can confirm a certain pattern around RNG. Back in the day when secret paladin was good in Wild, i took it at rank 17 and got to rank 5 with 1 loss only, with normal RNG openings. The day after i log in and try to push it to legend, and went 0-5, with 5 times opening with Dr.Boom, MC and Tyrion in my hand, and after mulligan i got belchers and piloted shredder. I know it is possible statistically speaking, but after i get big win rates, i always draw the most expensive cost spells of my deck. This happens quite often, but this one time was the more abused and clear one.
must be easy to spout all this nonsense about tinfoil hats when not being able to provide any counter arguments. and you wonder why blizzfanbois arent taken seriously
As long as you have no evidence, or testable theory, there is nothing to counter argue.
Agreed. I seriously can't comprehend why does so many people on the forum jump to defense for Blizzard about this "skewed" match making possibility and bad draw consistency.
I mean wouldn't it be easier just to keep an open mind about these things without simply putting everything to "Random"?
In Diablo 3, the drop rates for items and quality of those drop rates can be easily controlled and manipulated. The exact thing can be done for Hearthstone with ease.
This goes for the both of you. I know it´s easier on the ego of the mind to blame external influence for your misfortune or short comings. There is nothing wrong with having an open mind, but you have to self reflect here and realize that you are unreasonably paranoid. There is nothing to support the idea that the games in hearthstone are rigged, besides you trying to explain why you are unlucky. With limited understanding of probability, confirmation biases, etc. it is easier to blame a boogie man than accepting reality.
in your case, accepting ignorance. learn to read. i didnt blame, i dont even agree with the OP. i stated that they can and are able to push different ingame algorithms, thats all. you seem not to understand the difference between a technical analyze and "blaming the boogyman" whatever that means. you dont have any credible source either, neither the actual formula to counter anything we say.
must be easy to spout all this nonsense about tinfoil hats when not being able to provide any counter arguments. and you wonder why blizzfanbois arent taken seriously
As long as you have no evidence, or testable theory, there is nothing to counter argue.
Agreed. I seriously can't comprehend why does so many people on the forum jump to defense for Blizzard about this "skewed" match making possibility and bad draw consistency.
I mean wouldn't it be easier just to keep an open mind about these things without simply putting everything to "Random"?
In Diablo 3, the drop rates for items and quality of those drop rates can be easily controlled and manipulated. The exact thing can be done for Hearthstone with ease.
This goes for the both of you. I know it´s easier on the ego of the mind to blame external influence for your misfortune or short comings. There is nothing wrong with having an open mind, but you have to self reflect here and realize that you are unreasonably paranoid. There is nothing to support the idea that the games in hearthstone are rigged, besides you trying to explain why you are unlucky. With limited understanding of probability, confirmation biases, etc. it is easier to blame a boogie man than accepting reality.
in your case, accepting ignorance. learn to read. i didnt blame, i dont even agree with the OP. i stated that they can and are able to push different ingame algorithms, thats all. you seem not to understand the difference between a technical analyze and "blaming the boogyman" whatever that means. you dont have any credible source either, neither the actual formula to counter anything we say.
If you claim that the system is rigged then the burden of proof is on you, not the other way around.
* As someone already said, this explanation is just not logical: if you get bad matchups or draws constantly then there are some who don't get them. How Blizzard decides that? And why they would do it? It just does not make sense. IMO creating an MMO system that would give some players bad luck would be too much effort for too little or no reward for Blizzard.
* Confirmation bias. You will remember losing streaks, games lost to a bad draw more than lucky draws and win streaks, especially after going on a losing streak as you pay more attention to it then. Of course, I have had times when it seems nothing is going my way, but my losing streaks often have normal explanations, for example, I'm just tired, I'm concentrating less, making more mistakes, losing more. I suggest that if you are on losing streak, just take a day off, calm down, it will be much better, I'm sure.
* Also, git gud. It's just natural that we like to blame others for our own mistakes. It can't be that you just play bad, it must be that someone has rigged system against you.
must be easy to spout all this nonsense about tinfoil hats when not being able to provide any counter arguments. and you wonder why blizzfanbois arent taken seriously
As long as you have no evidence, or testable theory, there is nothing to counter argue.
Agreed. I seriously can't comprehend why does so many people on the forum jump to defense for Blizzard about this "skewed" match making possibility and bad draw consistency.
I mean wouldn't it be easier just to keep an open mind about these things without simply putting everything to "Random"?
In Diablo 3, the drop rates for items and quality of those drop rates can be easily controlled and manipulated. The exact thing can be done for Hearthstone with ease.
This goes for the both of you. I know it´s easier on the ego of the mind to blame external influence for your misfortune or short comings. There is nothing wrong with having an open mind, but you have to self reflect here and realize that you are unreasonably paranoid. There is nothing to support the idea that the games in hearthstone are rigged, besides you trying to explain why you are unlucky. With limited understanding of probability, confirmation biases, etc. it is easier to blame a boogie man than accepting reality.
This.
The OP is a rank 12 player complaining about not being able to win more than three or four games in a row. It isn't obvious why the best explanation for his failure is that Blizzard is rigging the game. Winning four consecutive games is a good out-come which the OP is choosing to interpret as a bad out-come. He bases his accusations on his misinterpretation, and completely undermines his own position as a result. If there is anything more to the issue, the OP didn't explain what it might be.
As far as "keeping an open mind" regarding the issue of match-fixing - Blizzard has responded to these sorts of allegations often enough that their responses are compiled on the HS wiki, for anyone who is interested. I assume that most aren't, and would prefer to believe that "something fishy" is going on.
in your case, accepting ignorance. learn to read. i didnt blame, i dont even agree with the OP. i stated that they can and are able to push different ingame algorithms, thats all. you seem not to understand the difference between a technical analyze and "blaming the boogyman" whatever that means. you dont have any credible source either, neither the actual formula to counter anything we say.
Maybe you should learn to read, at the very least the comments you make yourself. Here, try again:
its not programmed to favor the opponent, it just increases the success rate of some variables ingame for you. its actually quite simple to achieve this through an algorithm. they do this with all their games..
This is not discussing a technical possibility (without evidence to back up), this is assertion. Feel free to distance yourself from your own comment, but don't pretend like I misread you.
I don't need a credible source to disprove something you can't even substantiate yourself. The burden of proof is on the one making the claim, not the one questioning your claim.
more nonsense. are you seriously gonna use my own words against me while what i said is perfectly valid? talking about assertion wtf ..
they have bad luck protection algorithm in HS as well as their other games. they can increase (or decrease) chances for legendary items to drop in D3 etc. they do it in wow, in overwatch with lootboxes.
i stated that they can and are able to push different ingame algorithms, thats all.
* As someone already said, this explanation is just not logical: if you get bad matchups or draws constantly then there are some who don't get them. How Blizzard decides that? And why they would do it? It just does not make sense. IMO creating an MMO system that would give some players bad luck would be too much effort for too little or no reward for Blizzard.
* Confirmation bias. You will remember losing streaks, games lost to a bad draw more than lucky draws and win streaks, especially after going on a losing streak as you pay more attention to it then. Of course, I have had times when it seems nothing is going my way, but my losing streaks often have normal explanations, for example, I'm just tired, I'm concentrating less, making more mistakes, losing more. I suggest that if you are on losing streak, just take a day off, calm down, it will be much better, I'm sure.
* Also, git gud. It's just natural that we like to blame others for our own mistakes. It can't be that you just play bad, it must be that someone has rigged system against you.
more horseshit; even blizzard themselves admitted in the past that the system they've created aimed for winrates around 50%. how would they achieve that without creating extended calculations?
in your case, accepting ignorance. learn to read. i didnt blame, i dont even agree with the OP. i stated that they can and are able to push different ingame algorithms, thats all. you seem not to understand the difference between a technical analyze and "blaming the boogyman" whatever that means. you dont have any credible source either, neither the actual formula to counter anything we say.
Maybe you should learn to read, at the very least the comments you make yourself. Here, try again:
its not programmed to favor the opponent, it just increases the success rate of some variables ingame for you. its actually quite simple to achieve this through an algorithm. they do this with all their games..
This is not discussing a technical possibility (without evidence to back up), this is assertion. Feel free to distance yourself from your own comment, but don't pretend like I misread you.
I don't need a credible source to disprove something you can't even substantiate yourself. The burden of proof is on the one making the claim, not the one questioning your claim.
more nonsense. are you seriously gonna use my own words against me while what i said is perfectly valid? talking about assertion wtf ..
they have bad luck protection algorithm in HS as well as their other games. they can increase (or decrease) chances for legendary items to drop in D3 etc. they do it in wow, in overwatch with lootboxes.
(...)
Corresponding to lootboxes and item droprate is the droprate of rare, epics and legendaries in card packs. They do not try to change win% of PvP in Diablo and Overwatch. But yes, Blizzard does influence droprates in card packs. It's called pity timer.
Besides that, there never has been any hint or suggestion that Blizzard pushes the winrate of players to 50% by influencing draws via an algorithm (I don't take unproven statements from tinfoilers into account). How would they even do that? Looking at Hearthstones AI which can't even carry out an appropriate use of Equality , they are miles away from automatically analyzing a specific situation in a game and deducting a certain card a specific player would need in that situation. Moreover, they would've done an awful job since legend players need a winrate of above 50% and there are still many legend players with a win% of 60%+. But feel free to quote Blizzardstating otherwise.
However, I believe that their goal is a 50% winrate for the different classes and decks, but they try to achieve that by card/deck design.
Articles I suggest every player reads to improve at the game;
MTG/Hearthstone biases to avoid
Reframing negative Hearthstone experiences to improve at the game
Who's the Beatdown?
Most likely, that kind of effect is a result of random variance and doesn't hold up to testing.
That said, since it's pretty clear that there is an MMR being maintained for ranked ladder players, even if it's not the primary means of matchmaking, it's very possible that matchmaking to some extent depends on it. For example, the game may try to match players first by rank and then by MMR within that. If that were the case, a few wins might lead to slightly increased MMR and matching against stronger players, which leads to losses.
It's also possible that something else like time of day is affecting this. Play quality at high ranks is definitely higher at peak periods, so someone who's playing at rank 5+ just before the start of prime time may have some success for an hour or so and then find things more difficult. If they're changing decks daily, it may seem like the new deck is the reason when in fact it's an unrelated effect.
@Lysenko; I'd agree it's probably variance. At the very least it absolutely does also depend on time of day and meta shifts that come alongside that. I think it's also possible people forget that 55-60% winrate is actually solid, but that means that in an 8 game sample you can easily win 4 and lose 4 while still being on target for that winrate.
I did track down an article where Max McCall went a bit more in depth about it though, and it looks like Ranked mode really doesn't care about MMR and tries to match you with people close to your actual rank (it really only uses the internal MMR for matchups with Legend players I'm guessing).
Articles I suggest every player reads to improve at the game;
MTG/Hearthstone biases to avoid
Reframing negative Hearthstone experiences to improve at the game
Who's the Beatdown?
I experience this all the time. What's even worse is that there are days, that I cannot win. I lose 6 straight, go to arena for 0-3, Go back to ranked and lose 4 straight. Punch the computer and go to bed.
Next day: Win 10 straight with the same deck. I haven't figured out why there are streaks like that. I've learned that I just need to get off that day, when I'm having one and wait for a day or two, Then the win streaks happen again. Usually happens about twice per month. /shrug
There are 3 kinds of people in the world. Those that can count and those that can't.
@Tze: Thanks for the artice, that's great info!
My Secret Mage deck got me from 15 to Legend. Check it out HERE
Just keep playing. You will eventuall get past rank 18... I am a legend player and I am stuck for a few hours every month at 14-10, but from 10 to 5 it is a lot easiers from my point of view...Just keep playin.
Ya MMR is so messed up I hit r5-legend each season and I only ever get matched against opponents with gold portrait, legend card back who are playing T1 decks and get good curve, what gives blizz?
How come I still win games even though I'm so unlucky on MMR? I am so confused!
MMR is working, classes/decks faced are random as that's not part of MMR. Card draw and mulligans are rng, if it's that bad you are being unlucky, that's all.
You honestly think with 70m players world wide blizz has singled you out to keep you forever locked above r15?
Good grief. I dare you to kick the football again Charlie Brown.
Well, OP thread is clearly not bright, but let me say a few things. I have more than 4k wins in ranked play, and i can confirm a certain pattern around RNG. Back in the day when secret paladin was good in Wild, i took it at rank 17 and got to rank 5 with 1 loss only, with normal RNG openings. The day after i log in and try to push it to legend, and went 0-5, with 5 times opening with Dr.Boom, MC and Tyrion in my hand, and after mulligan i got belchers and piloted shredder. I know it is possible statistically speaking, but after i get big win rates, i always draw the most expensive cost spells of my deck. This happens quite often, but this one time was the more abused and clear one.
f2p, playing for fun ^^
I have to say some things:
* As someone already said, this explanation is just not logical: if you get bad matchups or draws constantly then there are some who don't get them. How Blizzard decides that? And why they would do it? It just does not make sense. IMO creating an MMO system that would give some players bad luck would be too much effort for too little or no reward for Blizzard.
* Confirmation bias. You will remember losing streaks, games lost to a bad draw more than lucky draws and win streaks, especially after going on a losing streak as you pay more attention to it then. Of course, I have had times when it seems nothing is going my way, but my losing streaks often have normal explanations, for example, I'm just tired, I'm concentrating less, making more mistakes, losing more. I suggest that if you are on losing streak, just take a day off, calm down, it will be much better, I'm sure.
* Also, git gud. It's just natural that we like to blame others for our own mistakes. It can't be that you just play bad, it must be that someone has rigged system against you.
they have bad luck protection algorithm in HS as well as their other games. they can increase (or decrease) chances for legendary items to drop in D3 etc. they do it in wow, in overwatch with lootboxes.