Actually, the math works out pretty well in my favor.
You have about a 1-in-3 chance of drawing a particular card in a 30 card deck, when you draw 9 cards (which is starting turn 1 with 3, and adding 6 per turn). That's, of course, NOT factoring in Acolyte of Pain, Battle Rage, Slam, and Shield Block (staples of this deck). And it's also not factoring in common, but not necessarily staple, cards like Gnomish Inventor, Loot Hoarder, and Commanding Shout. If we raise that average up to about 12 card draws (say, 1 Shield Block and 2 from Acolyte of Pain draws, for example), you have a 40% chance of having drawn Emperor Thaurissan.
Sure, it is "unusual" to have every card necessary for the combo in hand at a glance. But mathematically it's actually very likely to have all of them in your hand. I mean, by turn 6, if you've had 1 extra draw, you've drawn 1/3 of your deck (if you go 2nd, you don't need the extra draw). That gives any card in your deck a 45% chance of being in your hand.
This isn't necessarily basic math, but with each card draw, your chances of drawing X card increases. That is why, on specific turns against specific decks, people play around certain combos.
The math you are referring to is only valid for the initial draw/mulligan.
In regards to the ability to draw into a specific card (Say a legendary since only 1 can be included)...if you had 17 cards left in your deck; your chances of drawing that card is 5.8%. If you were trying to draw into a card that you knew you had 2 left in your deck (Say Warsong Commander) then your chances double to 11.7%. Obviously the less cards in your deck, the higher this number becomes, but saying "I have a 40% chance of having drawn X card by turn 5" is a fallacy since statistical math only will allow for an observation of a system, not the interference in a system by player interaction (such as mulligans). When you start including player interaction, mulligans, of course you can skew numbers in your favor in a discussion. That's what every single Wall Street company does every quarter in their holdings reports.
Anyhow, I didn't create this topic but can we keep the discussion on topic regarding Thunder Bluff Valiant viability? Thanks :)
I say decently strong. It snowballs quickly, it generates value to inspire and if you play a Flametongue Totem the next turn, it creates a really scary board, it draws silence and baits removal, and even then it stands ready for a Bloodlust. But, it's also slow, while you can potentially drop it t5, you should not do that unless you have cleared their board beforehand, and most certainly don't drop it into a Fireball. Everything else, and it's already 2-for-1. And sometimes people can't get through, and you drop the second one - hey, I've got 4/2 totems out of nowhere! So yes, about optimal for balance and return of shaman to playable meta.
I was actually using Mukka's Champion at first because it buffs every minion, and not jsut totems, but Thunder Bluff is a 3/6. Twilight Guardian is a 3/6 if you have a dragon in your hand, so not bad. Survives Death's Bite deathrattle.
Very strong finisher for totem shaman, very decent card for mid-range or control. It's a turn 7 drop, no matter what it says. The instances where I would drop it without being able to activate it are few and far between. This card absolutely stomps opponents in the right conditions. Very durable body to take some hits and control the board with.
I see the logic here, but I think it's missing something crucial: compared to other things happening on/around turn 7 (I say this because if you go second, your turn 7 will lead into your opponent's turn 8; or if you go first, your turn 7 can mean a 7+coin play for your opponent), this play seems very weak.
I actually just made an Edit to the original thread talking about how comments like yours made me change my mind about this card in a way. It seems like it is a much stronger Turn 5 play than a Turn 7 play, compared to other viable Turn 5 plays for Shaman, and the kinds of plays your opponent can make. Hell, if you can coin it out on Turn 4, you limit your opponent's responses so much that them having to waste large removal and essentially pass gives you a huge opportunity for bigger plays.
All i can say is, it's insane vs druids in general and all control/slower decks, control warriors and dragon priests cry when I grind their removal out, and just win the game with valiant, or in other cases valiant alone causes panic brawls/lightbombs that go 1 for 1 with it at best. I was 9-2 last season vs dragon priest, and had like 90% vs dragon/control warrior purely due to this card. It's a pure value card, so don't play it turn 5 in those match-ups, wait for a board with 2-3+ totems(btw once you have 2 real minions up and have board control, just totem every turn, eventually they have to blow their aoe, or valiant gets disgusting value). Vs Druids this card is even good as a turn 5 play, druids can`t deal with valiant at all(outside of keeper, which still leaves you with a 3 6).
Vs aggro you are better of with playing 1 valiant and 2 belcher instead, but valiant isn't bad as a turn 5 play in those games and some aggro also tends to ignore totems. Overall, amazing card, midrange shaman now only needs 1 more early game staple/a better aoe(since lightning storm is 5 mana whirlwind vs heavy aggro).
I finished last season at rank 1, and didn't play at all this season, so my guess is that ladder is now nothing but secret paladins, due to people wanting to climb fast? If so, I would run 1 valiant in my deck, while running 2 belcher/belcher+loatheb. Also run double ferals, if you already don't, they really help vs paladins.
From my experience with playing the deck I feel that TBV is a very strong card, but the deck has to be built around generating totems and keeping them on the board. Building the deck to do that makes the rest of the deck outside of TBV slightly weaker, but if you can get a solid board and then buff it with TBV then it is insane. So overall TBV is really good as a card, it's just the deck around him that will hold him back from making it to tier 1.
Turn 3 - Fencing Coach, turn 4 - Flametongue Totem + another 1-2 drop, Turn 5 - Thunder Bluff Valiant + Hero Power = a 2/2, another 2/2 flametongue (adding +2 to adjacent minions), a 3/6, another buffed totem, and whatever your 1-2 drop was on turn 5.
OR (if going second)
Turn 3 - Fencing Coach, turn 4 - Coin + Thunder Bluff Valiant + Hero Power = 2/2, 3/6, and buffed totem on turn 4, and it'll be harder for your opponent to answer TBV on turn 4. This gives you most likely at least one more opportunity to hero power (turn 5 Tuskarr Totemic + Hero power, anyone?)
+/- Totemic Might to make your opponent rage quit, btw
IMO Fencing Coach can really add some nice early/mid game combos to this build. Gives you good board control and threats your opponent has to answer. This card lets you drop TBV on turn 5 ([card]Mukla's Champion[/card too, if you run that] and get great value for it. It also reduces the chance that your opponent has an immediate answer for it, compared to playing it on turn 7.
Turn 3 - Fencing Coach, turn 4 - Flametongue Totem + another 1-2 drop, Turn 5 - Thunder Bluff Valiant + Hero Power = a 2/2, another 2/2 flametongue (adding +2 to adjacent minions), a 3/6, another buffed totem, and whatever your 1-2 drop was on turn 5.
OR (if going second)
Turn 3 - Fencing Coach, turn 4 - Coin + Thunder Bluff Valiant + Hero Power = 2/2, 3/6, and buffed totem on turn 4, and it'll be harder for your opponent to answer TBV on turn 4. This gives you most likely at least one more opportunity to hero power (turn 5 Tuskarr Totemic + Hero power, anyone?)
+/- Totemic Might to make your opponent rage quit, btw
IMO Fencing Coach can really add some nice early/mid game combos to this build. Gives you good board control and threats your opponent has to answer. This card lets you drop TBV on turn 5 ([card]Mukla's Champion[/card too, if you run that] and get great value for it. It also reduces the chance that your opponent has an immediate answer for it, compared to playing it on turn 7.
I don't understand why Fencing Coach is not used more. What cards would you drop for the Fencing Coach in a Totem Shaman Deck btw?
I really want to agree with you, but beyond TBV, there is 0 synergy with the rest of the deck. Your totems are good, but they won't trade well. Fencing Coach won't trade well, either. His stats are weak even if he were a 2-drop.
@OP: you're probably not playing it right. I assume you're one of the people who thinks you need to play it as a 7-drop all the time, but you really don't. Since it has 6 health it's perfectly fine and safe to slap down as a 5 drop if you're aggressively controlling the board early game, and it forces the opponent to deal with it (which is often hard). Worst case scenario it's a Fen Creeper (or Druid of the Claw depending on if the extra +1 attack is relevant--4 health minions are rare so it often isn't). Best case scenario your opponent doesn't have an answer, and you can do some crazy stuff on turn 6. You need to be playing aggressively for tempo with decks that run stuff like Thunder Bluff Valiant; the hope is that if you keep slapping stuff down, eventually your opponent will run out of answers and whatever sticks will win you the game.
LITERALLY THE SECOND LINE OF THE POST: "This card could be quite valuable as a Turn 5 play."
I want to agree with you, except that I pointed out in the beginning that the same problems persist (but get worse) on Turn 7 as Turn 5: You've got options on turn 5 that are pretty significant.
Bloodlust on a board of 3 or more minions could mean a win, or at least excellent trades for higher value cards, regardless of the existence of Totems on your board. Sludge Belcher provides just as good, if not better, protection. Azure Drake by the nature of it's battlecry is a 2-for-1 even in it's worse case scenario. Loatheb can provide protection that neither Sludge Belcher or TBV could provide, and depending on the situation, could provide the same soft Taunt. Even Frostwolf Warlord provides a solid and strong play on that turn, regardless of what kind of minions are on your board.
More importantly, none of those cards suffer from the weakness that a lack of totems does to TBV. Unlike those other cards, TBV has 2 points of weakness: it's own silence/removal AND the removal of the totems. Even IF you get to use TBV's ability on Turn 6, that 2/2 u just spent 2 mana for is unusable this turn. That leaves you with a 4-mana play to make, and this deck doesn't have any really solid 4-mana plays to make.
So, yeah, even as a 5-drop, while it does seem "better" than a Turn 7 drop (unless you start that turn with 3+ totems), it still seems weaker than other options of cards you could've put in the deck instead.
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Apples to oranges?
Actually, the math works out pretty well in my favor.
You have about a 1-in-3 chance of drawing a particular card in a 30 card deck, when you draw 9 cards (which is starting turn 1 with 3, and adding 6 per turn). That's, of course, NOT factoring in Acolyte of Pain, Battle Rage, Slam, and Shield Block (staples of this deck). And it's also not factoring in common, but not necessarily staple, cards like Gnomish Inventor, Loot Hoarder, and Commanding Shout. If we raise that average up to about 12 card draws (say, 1 Shield Block and 2 from Acolyte of Pain draws, for example), you have a 40% chance of having drawn Emperor Thaurissan.
Sure, it is "unusual" to have every card necessary for the combo in hand at a glance. But mathematically it's actually very likely to have all of them in your hand. I mean, by turn 6, if you've had 1 extra draw, you've drawn 1/3 of your deck (if you go 2nd, you don't need the extra draw). That gives any card in your deck a 45% chance of being in your hand.
This isn't necessarily basic math, but with each card draw, your chances of drawing X card increases. That is why, on specific turns against specific decks, people play around certain combos.
The math you are referring to is only valid for the initial draw/mulligan.
In regards to the ability to draw into a specific card (Say a legendary since only 1 can be included)...if you had 17 cards left in your deck; your chances of drawing that card is 5.8%. If you were trying to draw into a card that you knew you had 2 left in your deck (Say Warsong Commander) then your chances double to 11.7%. Obviously the less cards in your deck, the higher this number becomes, but saying "I have a 40% chance of having drawn X card by turn 5" is a fallacy since statistical math only will allow for an observation of a system, not the interference in a system by player interaction (such as mulligans). When you start including player interaction, mulligans, of course you can skew numbers in your favor in a discussion. That's what every single Wall Street company does every quarter in their holdings reports.
Anyhow, I didn't create this topic but can we keep the discussion on topic regarding Thunder Bluff Valiant viability? Thanks :)
Not even nearly broken enough to make Shaman top tier, basically, and that's what the class needs.
I say decently strong. It snowballs quickly, it generates value to inspire and if you play a Flametongue Totem the next turn, it creates a really scary board, it draws silence and baits removal, and even then it stands ready for a Bloodlust. But, it's also slow, while you can potentially drop it t5, you should not do that unless you have cleared their board beforehand, and most certainly don't drop it into a Fireball. Everything else, and it's already 2-for-1. And sometimes people can't get through, and you drop the second one - hey, I've got 4/2 totems out of nowhere! So yes, about optimal for balance and return of shaman to playable meta.
There is a lot of steak here...
Actually, measuring hypergeometric probabilities like these have been very important to card games since before I started playing Magic.
But you're right. TBV, overrated but not terrible.
I was actually using Mukka's Champion at first because it buffs every minion, and not jsut totems, but Thunder Bluff is a 3/6. Twilight Guardian is a 3/6 if you have a dragon in your hand, so not bad. Survives Death's Bite deathrattle.
Very strong finisher for totem shaman, very decent card for mid-range or control. It's a turn 7 drop, no matter what it says. The instances where I would drop it without being able to activate it are few and far between. This card absolutely stomps opponents in the right conditions. Very durable body to take some hits and control the board with.
Works slightly better than I first anticipated.
I see the logic here, but I think it's missing something crucial: compared to other things happening on/around turn 7 (I say this because if you go second, your turn 7 will lead into your opponent's turn 8; or if you go first, your turn 7 can mean a 7+coin play for your opponent), this play seems very weak.
TBV is bad...
I actually just made an Edit to the original thread talking about how comments like yours made me change my mind about this card in a way. It seems like it is a much stronger Turn 5 play than a Turn 7 play, compared to other viable Turn 5 plays for Shaman, and the kinds of plays your opponent can make. Hell, if you can coin it out on Turn 4, you limit your opponent's responses so much that them having to waste large removal and essentially pass gives you a huge opportunity for bigger plays.
All i can say is, it's insane vs druids in general and all control/slower decks, control warriors and dragon priests cry when I grind their removal out, and just win the game with valiant, or in other cases valiant alone causes panic brawls/lightbombs that go 1 for 1 with it at best. I was 9-2 last season vs dragon priest, and had like 90% vs dragon/control warrior purely due to this card. It's a pure value card, so don't play it turn 5 in those match-ups, wait for a board with 2-3+ totems(btw once you have 2 real minions up and have board control, just totem every turn, eventually they have to blow their aoe, or valiant gets disgusting value). Vs Druids this card is even good as a turn 5 play, druids can`t deal with valiant at all(outside of keeper, which still leaves you with a 3 6).
Vs aggro you are better of with playing 1 valiant and 2 belcher instead, but valiant isn't bad as a turn 5 play in those games and some aggro also tends to ignore totems. Overall, amazing card, midrange shaman now only needs 1 more early game staple/a better aoe(since lightning storm is 5 mana whirlwind vs heavy aggro).
I finished last season at rank 1, and didn't play at all this season, so my guess is that ladder is now nothing but secret paladins, due to people wanting to climb fast? If so, I would run 1 valiant in my deck, while running 2 belcher/belcher+loatheb. Also run double ferals, if you already don't, they really help vs paladins.
From my experience with playing the deck I feel that TBV is a very strong card, but the deck has to be built around generating totems and keeping them on the board. Building the deck to do that makes the rest of the deck outside of TBV slightly weaker, but if you can get a solid board and then buff it with TBV then it is insane. So overall TBV is really good as a card, it's just the deck around him that will hold him back from making it to tier 1.
Potential snowballer. Just don't build the deck around him, having 1 is good enough.
Dudes, Fencing Coach
Turn 3 - Tuskarr Totemic, Turn 4 - Fencing Coach, Turn 5 - Thunder Bluff Valiant + Hero Power = 2 buffed totems, a 3/2, a 2/2, and a 3/6 all out on turn 5, with snowball potential.
OR
Turn 3 - Fencing Coach, turn 4 - Flametongue Totem + another 1-2 drop, Turn 5 - Thunder Bluff Valiant + Hero Power = a 2/2, another 2/2 flametongue (adding +2 to adjacent minions), a 3/6, another buffed totem, and whatever your 1-2 drop was on turn 5.
OR (if going second)
Turn 3 - Fencing Coach, turn 4 - Coin + Thunder Bluff Valiant + Hero Power = 2/2, 3/6, and buffed totem on turn 4, and it'll be harder for your opponent to answer TBV on turn 4. This gives you most likely at least one more opportunity to hero power (turn 5 Tuskarr Totemic + Hero power, anyone?)
+/- Totemic Might to make your opponent rage quit, btw
IMO Fencing Coach can really add some nice early/mid game combos to this build. Gives you good board control and threats your opponent has to answer. This card lets you drop TBV on turn 5 ([card]Mukla's Champion[/card too, if you run that] and get great value for it. It also reduces the chance that your opponent has an immediate answer for it, compared to playing it on turn 7.
I don't understand why Fencing Coach is not used more. What cards would you drop for the Fencing Coach in a Totem Shaman Deck btw?
Agree with OP. TBV is an overpriced win-more card. One of many reasons shaman remains a tier-3 class.
I really want to agree with you, but beyond TBV, there is 0 synergy with the rest of the deck. Your totems are good, but they won't trade well. Fencing Coach won't trade well, either. His stats are weak even if he were a 2-drop.
@OP: you're probably not playing it right. I assume you're one of the people who thinks you need to play it as a 7-drop all the time, but you really don't. Since it has 6 health it's perfectly fine and safe to slap down as a 5 drop if you're aggressively controlling the board early game, and it forces the opponent to deal with it (which is often hard). Worst case scenario it's a Fen Creeper (or Druid of the Claw depending on if the extra +1 attack is relevant--4 health minions are rare so it often isn't). Best case scenario your opponent doesn't have an answer, and you can do some crazy stuff on turn 6. You need to be playing aggressively for tempo with decks that run stuff like Thunder Bluff Valiant; the hope is that if you keep slapping stuff down, eventually your opponent will run out of answers and whatever sticks will win you the game.
LITERALLY THE SECOND LINE OF THE POST: "This card could be quite valuable as a Turn 5 play."
I want to agree with you, except that I pointed out in the beginning that the same problems persist (but get worse) on Turn 7 as Turn 5: You've got options on turn 5 that are pretty significant.
Bloodlust on a board of 3 or more minions could mean a win, or at least excellent trades for higher value cards, regardless of the existence of Totems on your board. Sludge Belcher provides just as good, if not better, protection. Azure Drake by the nature of it's battlecry is a 2-for-1 even in it's worse case scenario. Loatheb can provide protection that neither Sludge Belcher or TBV could provide, and depending on the situation, could provide the same soft Taunt. Even Frostwolf Warlord provides a solid and strong play on that turn, regardless of what kind of minions are on your board.
More importantly, none of those cards suffer from the weakness that a lack of totems does to TBV. Unlike those other cards, TBV has 2 points of weakness: it's own silence/removal AND the removal of the totems. Even IF you get to use TBV's ability on Turn 6, that 2/2 u just spent 2 mana for is unusable this turn. That leaves you with a 4-mana play to make, and this deck doesn't have any really solid 4-mana plays to make.
So, yeah, even as a 5-drop, while it does seem "better" than a Turn 7 drop (unless you start that turn with 3+ totems), it still seems weaker than other options of cards you could've put in the deck instead.