It seems like the meta is settling down a bit post-nerf, and with each class seemingly having multiple viable archetypes the mulligan stage has become a bit more complex. I wanted to get your takes on the best way to handle each opposing class. Here's what I've generally been doing so far:
Warrior -- This is one of two classes with just one significant archetype: quest warrior. It's also a pretty brutal matchup with BSM, unfortunately, though I've had more success than statistics would suggest. My general theory on this matchup is that Frost Lich Jaina on curve is crucial to begin taxing their removal, soaking up 8 damage hero powers, and freezing face to prevent weapon swings. As in most matchups, I'm typically keeping it or full mulliganing for it. I will keep a Skulking Geist in hand as well, though. Destroying Shield Slams can be helpful. I find that Alexstrasza is also crucial to me in this matchup, but it comes late enough to where I'll throw it back and hope to draw it if I don't have the DK.
Paladin -- This is the other one-archetype possibility: odd Paladin. As usual, I find Frost Lich Jaina to be a keeper. Beyond that I'm looking for one Dragon's Fury. Tar Creeper can get some work done in this matchup as well.
Druid -- The latest HSReplay stats show we're looking at about a 2:1 taunt-to-token ratio here. Between those figures and given that token is all but an unwinnable matchup, I'll full mulligan for Skulking Geist and Polymorphs. I'm 30-1 against taunt druids right now, so I feel pretty good about this one.
Shaman -- HSReplay shows about a 2:1 Shudderwock-to-even ratio. Unfortunately this turns out to to be the opposite of our Druid matchups, with the unwinnable one being most prevalent. We're obviously not fast enough to beat a combo deck, so I'm playing to beat even Shaman. This one feels similar to odd Paladin to me. Frost Lich Jaina is a keeper. Dragon's Fury is worth hanging onto. Tar Creeper can buy you some time as well.
Mage -- Looks like tempo and BSM mirrors are pretty even right now. Tempo Mage is arguably our worst matchup in the entire meta, so I start with Big Spell Mage. I'm starting to sound like a broken record here, but let's keep Frost Lich Jaina. Beyond that, though, I'm not sure there's a card worth keeping in the mirror match, so I'll start to hedge against tempo Mage. With the coin, Dragon's Fury is a keeper. Without it, I'm looking for Doomsayer, Tar Creeper, and Arcane Keysmith (in the hopes of finding a Mana Bind to trigger Counterspell generally).
Warlock -- I'm not sure the breakdown on archetypes has really stabilized here; I expect Cube representation to continue to grow as people realize it's no longer heavily teched against. But for now we're looking at about 55-22-17 even-cube-zoo. For the first two matchups, it's very important to have early single target removal to deal with Mountain Giants. Polymorph and Voodoo Doll are both keepers. Arcane Keysmith is an interesting consideration, as well, either to try to Mirror Entity a big minion or at least force a sub-optimal play. Pre-nerf, Skulking Geist was a keep in order to prevent cube Shenanigans with Dark Pact, but that's no longer worthwhile with just a quarter of our matchups playing it. Getting Frost Lich Jaina online against even Warlocks is important as well, so as usual, keep it.
Rogue -- Miracle and odd are pretty similar in terms of frequency, and I'm not sure our early game plan is vastly different. Dragon's Fury is key here. Once we get our AOE train rolling, the game is all but over. Doomsayer is a great turn 2 play to prevent an on-curve Hench-Clan Thug. Frost Lich Jaina can be a bit tough to find a spot for against Miracle given their massive burst potential, but it's still probably a keeper.
Hunter -- I don't know any more. Recruit Hunter seems unbeatable as a BSM. And Spell Hunter... Well, you can hold a Dragon's Fury to deal with the spellstone, but unless Deathstalker Rexxar is buried and they don't manage to find it with either tracking, this seems like an inevitable loss. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this one.
Priest -- I saved the most unconventional one for last. Per HSReplay, the current breakdown is 30% combo, 24% control, 23% quest, 14% resurrect. Combo seems to have recently crept back in, which makes keeping Skulking Geist a good play. Control and resurrect are both very interesting and statistically even matchups, though. Both are capable of bursting you down in a turn or two, but by different methods. Against control, I think we're looking to maximize our armor gain before Alexstrasza --> multiple Mind Blasts happens. I'll typically keep Frost Lich Jaina and an Arcane Artificer. Against resurrect, we also need armor, but Polymorph can be crucial to take Malygos and Prophet Velen out of the resurrect pool.
More seriously though, I'm just relaying my own experiences and in no way am I suggesting that these are objectively good decisions. I'd love to hear some of your thoughts on BSM mulligans so I can improve my game, particularly against Priest, Hunter, and Mage.
Hey folks,
It seems like the meta is settling down a bit post-nerf, and with each class seemingly having multiple viable archetypes the mulligan stage has become a bit more complex. I wanted to get your takes on the best way to handle each opposing class. Here's what I've generally been doing so far:
Warrior -- This is one of two classes with just one significant archetype: quest warrior. It's also a pretty brutal matchup with BSM, unfortunately, though I've had more success than statistics would suggest. My general theory on this matchup is that Frost Lich Jaina on curve is crucial to begin taxing their removal, soaking up 8 damage hero powers, and freezing face to prevent weapon swings. As in most matchups, I'm typically keeping it or full mulliganing for it. I will keep a Skulking Geist in hand as well, though. Destroying Shield Slams can be helpful. I find that Alexstrasza is also crucial to me in this matchup, but it comes late enough to where I'll throw it back and hope to draw it if I don't have the DK.
Paladin -- This is the other one-archetype possibility: odd Paladin. As usual, I find Frost Lich Jaina to be a keeper. Beyond that I'm looking for one Dragon's Fury. Tar Creeper can get some work done in this matchup as well.
Druid -- The latest HSReplay stats show we're looking at about a 2:1 taunt-to-token ratio here. Between those figures and given that token is all but an unwinnable matchup, I'll full mulligan for Skulking Geist and Polymorphs. I'm 30-1 against taunt druids right now, so I feel pretty good about this one.
Shaman -- HSReplay shows about a 2:1 Shudderwock-to-even ratio. Unfortunately this turns out to to be the opposite of our Druid matchups, with the unwinnable one being most prevalent. We're obviously not fast enough to beat a combo deck, so I'm playing to beat even Shaman. This one feels similar to odd Paladin to me. Frost Lich Jaina is a keeper. Dragon's Fury is worth hanging onto. Tar Creeper can buy you some time as well.
Mage -- Looks like tempo and BSM mirrors are pretty even right now. Tempo Mage is arguably our worst matchup in the entire meta, so I start with Big Spell Mage. I'm starting to sound like a broken record here, but let's keep Frost Lich Jaina. Beyond that, though, I'm not sure there's a card worth keeping in the mirror match, so I'll start to hedge against tempo Mage. With the coin, Dragon's Fury is a keeper. Without it, I'm looking for Doomsayer, Tar Creeper, and Arcane Keysmith (in the hopes of finding a Mana Bind to trigger Counterspell generally).
Warlock -- I'm not sure the breakdown on archetypes has really stabilized here; I expect Cube representation to continue to grow as people realize it's no longer heavily teched against. But for now we're looking at about 55-22-17 even-cube-zoo. For the first two matchups, it's very important to have early single target removal to deal with Mountain Giants. Polymorph and Voodoo Doll are both keepers. Arcane Keysmith is an interesting consideration, as well, either to try to Mirror Entity a big minion or at least force a sub-optimal play. Pre-nerf, Skulking Geist was a keep in order to prevent cube Shenanigans with Dark Pact, but that's no longer worthwhile with just a quarter of our matchups playing it. Getting Frost Lich Jaina online against even Warlocks is important as well, so as usual, keep it.
Rogue -- Miracle and odd are pretty similar in terms of frequency, and I'm not sure our early game plan is vastly different. Dragon's Fury is key here. Once we get our AOE train rolling, the game is all but over. Doomsayer is a great turn 2 play to prevent an on-curve Hench-Clan Thug. Frost Lich Jaina can be a bit tough to find a spot for against Miracle given their massive burst potential, but it's still probably a keeper.
Hunter -- I don't know any more. Recruit Hunter seems unbeatable as a BSM. And Spell Hunter... Well, you can hold a Dragon's Fury to deal with the spellstone, but unless Deathstalker Rexxar is buried and they don't manage to find it with either tracking, this seems like an inevitable loss. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this one.
Priest -- I saved the most unconventional one for last. Per HSReplay, the current breakdown is 30% combo, 24% control, 23% quest, 14% resurrect. Combo seems to have recently crept back in, which makes keeping Skulking Geist a good play. Control and resurrect are both very interesting and statistically even matchups, though. Both are capable of bursting you down in a turn or two, but by different methods. Against control, I think we're looking to maximize our armor gain before Alexstrasza --> multiple Mind Blasts happens. I'll typically keep Frost Lich Jaina and an Arcane Artificer. Against resurrect, we also need armor, but Polymorph can be crucial to take Malygos and Prophet Velen out of the resurrect pool.
TLDR version -- Keep Frost Lich Jaina.
More seriously though, I'm just relaying my own experiences and in no way am I suggesting that these are objectively good decisions. I'd love to hear some of your thoughts on BSM mulligans so I can improve my game, particularly against Priest, Hunter, and Mage.