I’m calling it now. This is going to be the single most toxic part of launch day. Nellie being able to discover 3 pirates is going to make Mr. Smite come up very often. Oh yeah, and cost 1, along with the other two pirates.
I don’t need to cite examples of what makes this stupid. Battlegrounds battle master, for one example.
I have no possible ability to comprehend why smite was made. But it’s going to be absolutely broken with Nellie.
I think we should wait to see how many pirates will be in game after full expansion reveal and new core set before jumping at conclusions, after that we’ll know the odds
I think we should wait to see how many pirates will be in game after full expansion reveal and new core set before jumping at conclusions, after that we’ll know the odds
Assuming you can’t pick other class pirates, which id assume so, even if there are twenty pirates, between warrior and neutral, your odds are pretty damn decent of hitting it on one of the discovers.
I think you have PTSD from Pirate Questline Warrior. Just wait a bit before being angry at smth that didn't even happen yet. I can also tell you: If you by chance get killed once by that constelation, you probably will feel validated in your anger. Even if it only happens 1 out of 20 times.
Speaking of quest warrior, it should be pointed out that hooktusk is an 8 mana 8-8 that the juggernaut can give you for free on board, which will make in-hand Mr Smite more dangerous than previously was. The variance on the jugg effect is just moronic, weapon can be a 1-3 or a 7-1, pirate can be a 1-1,a Smite or an 8-8 that you can enable with your own Smite from hand, that's freaking ridiculous.
Why are you acting like this is some mythical scenario? Unless they print/rotate into core A LOT of pirates, this is going to be very, very common. It's not mathematically difficult whatsoever to find the probability of hitting smite out of 3 discovers.
Assuming a pool of 20 pirates and that there can be duplicates, there is a 15% probability to discover smite. At least one being smite from 3 discovers is a 45% chance.
Assuming a pool of 20 pirates and that there can be duplicates, there is a 15% probability to discover smite. At least one being smite from 3 discovers is a 45% chance.
I don't think this is correct (though it's been a while since I've done probability, so forgive me if I screw something up!). Let's assume 20 pirates, keeping in mind that each discover choice is between 3 different cards.
The chance of NOT getting Smite in a given discovery choice is calculated as follows: .95 (19/20) x .947 (18/19) x .944 (17/18), which equals about .85. So, you're right about having a 15% chance of Smite appearing in a given round of discovery. The mistake you're making is adding the 15%'s together. What you actually have to do is multiply the chance of not getting Smite in each round together, then subtract it from 1. So, it's: .85 x .85 x .85, which equals .61, meaning you have about a 39% chance of discovering Smite.
We don't know how many pirates will be added via the core set, so we can't know if it is happening often. They also may weigh the propability against smite. And there are counter measures as explained (freeze, silence, sap).
I didn't act like it is a mythical chance, but it is not as common as is presented here -and obviously supported by the general hate/experience regarding the questline. I am pretty sure it won't be "very, very common". A lot needs to happen to get to the scenario apart from the chance to even discover a Smite.
Speaking of quest warrior, it should be pointed out that hooktusk is an 8 mana 8-8 that the juggernaut can give you for free on board, which will make in-hand Mr Smite more dangerous than previously was. The variance on the jugg effect is just moronic, weapon can be a 1-3 or a 7-1, pirate can be a 1-1,a Smite or an 8-8 that you can enable with your own Smite from hand, that's freaking ridiculous.
At the same time we got a 2/3 dredge pirate and a 2/2 amalgam so overall the pool got worse. Also lets wait and see what weapons are coming in the core set, Goregowl should be gone.
That's hardly the point, the huge variance will be there making for some insane board turns where skill had no impact. Oh, your juggs have you a 5attack weapon, a hooktusk and you had smite in hand? Well I guess I'm dead from full now. Good counterplay opportunity.
I’m calling it now. This is going to be the single most toxic part of launch day. Nellie being able to discover 3 pirates is going to make Mr. Smite come up very often. Oh yeah, and cost 1, along with the other two pirates.
I don’t need to cite examples of what makes this stupid. Battlegrounds battle master, for one example.
I have no possible ability to comprehend why smite was made. But it’s going to be absolutely broken with Nellie.
It can‘t be smite 3x at least.
Yeah but you only need the 1. A 1 mana 6/5 charge, that leaves you 9 mana to load other pirates that also have charge, is going to be beyond toxic.
I think we should wait to see how many pirates will be in game after full expansion reveal and new core set before jumping at conclusions, after that we’ll know the odds
Assuming you can’t pick other class pirates, which id assume so, even if there are twenty pirates, between warrior and neutral, your odds are pretty damn decent of hitting it on one of the discovers.
Well, silence/freeze/sap Nellys ship then.
I think you have PTSD from Pirate Questline Warrior. Just wait a bit before being angry at smth that didn't even happen yet.
I can also tell you: If you by chance get killed once by that constelation, you probably will feel validated in your anger. Even if it only happens 1 out of 20 times.
Speaking of quest warrior, it should be pointed out that hooktusk is an 8 mana 8-8 that the juggernaut can give you for free on board, which will make in-hand Mr Smite more dangerous than previously was. The variance on the jugg effect is just moronic, weapon can be a 1-3 or a 7-1, pirate can be a 1-1,a Smite or an 8-8 that you can enable with your own Smite from hand, that's freaking ridiculous.
Why are you acting like this is some mythical scenario? Unless they print/rotate into core A LOT of pirates, this is going to be very, very common. It's not mathematically difficult whatsoever to find the probability of hitting smite out of 3 discovers.
Assuming a pool of 20 pirates and that there can be duplicates, there is a 15% probability to discover smite. At least one being smite from 3 discovers is a 45% chance.
I don't think this is correct (though it's been a while since I've done probability, so forgive me if I screw something up!). Let's assume 20 pirates, keeping in mind that each discover choice is between 3 different cards.
The chance of NOT getting Smite in a given discovery choice is calculated as follows: .95 (19/20) x .947 (18/19) x .944 (17/18), which equals about .85. So, you're right about having a 15% chance of Smite appearing in a given round of discovery. The mistake you're making is adding the 15%'s together. What you actually have to do is multiply the chance of not getting Smite in each round together, then subtract it from 1. So, it's: .85 x .85 x .85, which equals .61, meaning you have about a 39% chance of discovering Smite.
Still WAY too high, in my view.
We don't know how many pirates will be added via the core set, so we can't know if it is happening often.
They also may weigh the propability against smite. And there are counter measures as explained (freeze, silence, sap).
I didn't act like it is a mythical chance, but it is not as common as is presented here -and obviously supported by the general hate/experience regarding the questline. I am pretty sure it won't be "very, very common".
A lot needs to happen to get to the scenario apart from the chance to even discover a Smite.
At the same time we got a 2/3 dredge pirate and a 2/2 amalgam so overall the pool got worse. Also lets wait and see what weapons are coming in the core set, Goregowl should be gone.
:)
https://hsreplay.net/replay/27u2NJTZZJgToJ6k6n5BTM
That's hardly the point, the huge variance will be there making for some insane board turns where skill had no impact. Oh, your juggs have you a 5attack weapon, a hooktusk and you had smite in hand? Well I guess I'm dead from full now. Good counterplay opportunity.
Im 100% going to try quest control warrior with Zola creating a second Juggernaut
:)
https://hsreplay.net/replay/27u2NJTZZJgToJ6k6n5BTM