The theory: Blizzard reduces legendary pull rate by .5% or so on day 1-2 of expansion.
The evidence: none
Personal experience though, like last expansion, i save up TONS of gold, I bought 85 packs.
I pulled 3 legends, some would argue that's about average but It felt low to me.
Day 3-4 rolls around I do an arena and BAM legend practically right away (from the free pack), I know this is kind of shallow and probably coincidental
but I remember this same thing happening last expansion too.
I guess random is random but i don't know. would we really know if they reduced by a fraction of a percent on day 1-2?
I got 8 legendariers from my 123 packs i got at release, and my first one was on the pitty timer so 40 packs in, and after that i got about 1 every 10 packs.
here is the thing about probability, its only useful when your'e dealing with big numbers. i can flip a coin 3 times and claim that its rigged because it always landed on tales but thats not true. Kripp opened more than 700 packs. 5% of them had a legendary. just like any other pack.
The chance to get a legendary is about 1/15 if I remember correctly. That means you'd have to open a LOT more packs to really have ground for suspicion. Even getting 0 legendaries out of these packs would not be a remarkably low chance.
I got a total of 6 legendaries: boogeymonster (38), Deathwing (47), Golden Shifter Zerus (59), Ragnaros (89), Deathwing (106), Golden Mulka (107)
So I think I got someone's golden legendary since I got 2 so close to each other. But don't worry RNG God's have been punishing me everywhere else since then.
You won't convince yourself or anyone else based off of a feeling. You need to have some hard data to draw any type of comparison.
Did you know Hitler plans to enslave and then exterminate the Jewish people? Well he's not done anything but somehow I just don't trust that moustache...That I could get behind. Your memory is not always reliable and Blizzard don't need to tinker with any algorithm to make people feel like they are getting less than they should be. That formula is already written in there to make people feel that way.
You won't convince yourself or anyone else based off of a feeling. You need to have some hard data to draw any type of comparison.
Did you know Hitler plans to enslave and then exterminate the Jewish people? Well he's not done anything but somehow I just don't trust that moustache...That I could get behind. Your memory is not always reliable and Blizzard don't need to tinker with any algorithm to make people feel like they are getting less than they should be. That formula is already written in there to make people feel that way.
Godwin's law in action.
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I was right near the end of the pity timer about to get a legend, then in comes the expansion, and poof, no pity timer, no legend for a looong time unpacking cards. Got 2 legend from 50 packs, neither seeing play.
You won't convince yourself or anyone else based off of a feeling. You need to have some hard data to draw any type of comparison.
Did you know Hitler plans to enslave and then exterminate the Jewish people? Well he's not done anything but somehow I just don't trust that moustache...That I could get behind. Your memory is not always reliable and Blizzard don't need to tinker with any algorithm to make people feel like they are getting less than they should be. That formula is already written in there to make people feel that way.
Godwin's law in action.
Poe's law, too.
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People who refuses to play aggro out of principle are even worse than people who play exclusively aggro.
One should seek to become a complete player and play all archetypes, including ones that he despises for whatever irrational reasons.
As much as I love a good conspiracy theory... And by the way we KNOW blizz messes with legendary pull rates at one specific scenario, right? What would stop them from doing it in other cases? Doesn't mean that it's bad for the players... like the pity timer.
But I doubt that you theory makes sense, especially because you see some people that simply pull ∞ legends on day 1. Like my friend, who hardly plays... he got like 7 legendaries on day 1, and he opened a little less packs than I did (~100 packs).
My theory is that you are more likely to get legends if you don't play as often. I've noticed it with 2 friends who are often pulling legends when they log in, lol.
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The theory: Blizzard reduces legendary pull rate by .5% or so on day 1-2 of expansion.
The evidence: none
Personal experience though, like last expansion, i save up TONS of gold, I bought 85 packs.
I pulled 3 legends, some would argue that's about average but It felt low to me.
Day 3-4 rolls around I do an arena and BAM legend practically right away (from the free pack), I know this is kind of shallow and probably coincidental
but I remember this same thing happening last expansion too.
I guess random is random but i don't know. would we really know if they reduced by a fraction of a percent on day 1-2?
I support your theory! I got exactly 3 epics, 23 rares and the rest commons from my 26 free packs on EU and NA. Ridiculously poor rng.
Tinfoil hat on!
I got 5 legendaries from 83 packs on day 2. one of them was golden
I got 8 legendariers from my 123 packs i got at release, and my first one was on the pitty timer so 40 packs in, and after that i got about 1 every 10 packs.
Even got a double legendary pack ( http://i.imgur.com/NJLfvId.png )
its just your mind mate, you were just unlucky, i opened 30 the first day and got 9 epics and 1 legendary
here is the thing about probability, its only useful when your'e dealing with big numbers. i can flip a coin 3 times and claim that its rigged because it always landed on tales but thats not true. Kripp opened more than 700 packs. 5% of them had a legendary. just like any other pack.
The chance to get a legendary is about 1/15 if I remember correctly. That means you'd have to open a LOT more packs to really have ground for suspicion. Even getting 0 legendaries out of these packs would not be a remarkably low chance.
Thanks. OP's 4 legendaries out 84 cards is actually as close to average as you can get then.
I opened 110 packs on release day.
I got a total of 6 legendaries: boogeymonster (38), Deathwing (47), Golden Shifter Zerus (59), Ragnaros (89), Deathwing (106), Golden Mulka (107)
So I think I got someone's golden legendary since I got 2 so close to each other. But don't worry RNG God's have been punishing me everywhere else since then.
Dammit, I forgot my tinfoil hat again. Why do I never bring it when I need it?
CDC #34, #3.07, #3.08 and Mini Competition #1 Finalist ---
Click on the images below to check out my different custom card threads!
Typical human behaviour to see patterns everywhere..
You won't convince yourself or anyone else based off of a feeling. You need to have some hard data to draw any type of comparison.
Did you know Hitler plans to enslave and then exterminate the Jewish people? Well he's not done anything but somehow I just don't trust that moustache...That I could get behind. Your memory is not always reliable and Blizzard don't need to tinker with any algorithm to make people feel like they are getting less than they should be. That formula is already written in there to make people feel that way.
CDC #34, #3.07, #3.08 and Mini Competition #1 Finalist ---
Click on the images below to check out my different custom card threads!
I pulled 5 Legs out of 60 packs on the first day on EU. Spent 4700 Gold and got the other 13 packs for free/through quests. So... dunno.
I was right near the end of the pity timer about to get a legend, then in comes the expansion, and poof, no pity timer, no legend for a looong time unpacking cards. Got 2 legend from 50 packs, neither seeing play.
The pity timer works on a per set basis; if you were opening WoTOG packs on the first day, the pity timer for that set would start at zero.
People who refuses to play aggro out of principle are even worse than people who play exclusively aggro.
One should seek to become a complete player and play all archetypes, including ones that he despises for whatever irrational reasons.
As much as I love a good conspiracy theory... And by the way we KNOW blizz messes with legendary pull rates at one specific scenario, right? What would stop them from doing it in other cases? Doesn't mean that it's bad for the players... like the pity timer.
But I doubt that you theory makes sense, especially because you see some people that simply pull ∞ legends on day 1. Like my friend, who hardly plays... he got like 7 legendaries on day 1, and he opened a little less packs than I did (~100 packs).
My theory is that you are more likely to get legends if you don't play as often. I've noticed it with 2 friends who are often pulling legends when they log in, lol.