Lads, I know it's not card reveal season, nor anything even close to that, but I'd like to touch this topic while new cards aren't draining all our attention. I want to talk about the many, many, many complaints we all love to make about how awful the community is at predicting the power level of upcoming cards. However, I'll play the Devil's Advocate on this one. I say we should be glad that most of our predictions are misses instead of hits. Why? Fun factor and unpredictability.
Here's a list of cards that the community generally predicted right:
See a pattern? These cards are either obviously powerful (boring) or obviously filler-tier bad (also boring). Meanwhile, a few of the (huge list of) cards the community guessed wrong are:
These cards stand on similar powerlevels as the cards above, but they have at least been misleading. They required some thought for their true power to be revealed, and must have surprised everyone when they first proved how good/terrible they actually were.
What I'm trying to say is: be glad that the community gets most of these wrong. It at least means the expansions are unpredictable and might be the only thing that fuels the post-release experimenting stage everyone likes so much.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Start of Year: Provoke the failure of 3 expansions, force nerfs on otherwise balanced cards, bring deckbuilding to an all-time low and get rotated one year earlier for being such a threat to the game's health. - Genn and Baku's historical entry on the White Book of Shit Design, shortly before retiring unpunished
I think the order of reveals is also a big factor in missed predictions. A lot of the generic aggro/tempo cards get dumped on the last day of reveals, so while everyone is theory crafting around the cool new epics and legendaries, cards like Small Time Buccaneer and Corridor Creeper don't get noticed until they start destroying everything in their path. People tend to think the meta will be slower than it turns out to be. People who enjoy brewing aren't usually into fast decks, so they often miss the strength of aggro cards.
People also tend to overestimate the drawback of deck building restrictions versus payoff cards (Prince K, Baku/Genn, people were even unsure about Reno). But I agree that it's cool that out takes a while to figure out which cards are good and that we the community are wrong a lot.
While there is some truth to what ur saying, the fact that those votes (or majority of them anyway) come from the day the card(s) is(are) released, the results r very skewed. I think if we would have knowledge of all the cards from the new set at once, we could make a better educated guess. The hype obviously also plays the role and other factors. I get what ur trying to say, but you just take the parts you want to highligh to make your point, i dont think that provides a relevant overview of the subject, sorry.
People tend to think the meta will be slower than it turns out to be. People who enjoy brewing aren't usually into fast decks, so they often miss the strength of aggro cards.
This is a big factor that I think I only witnessed actually happening during KoFT, and to be fair it does misdirect a lot of predictions and hype.
While there is some truth to what ur saying, the fact that those votes (or majority of them anyway) come from the day the card(s) is(are) released, the results r very skewed. I think if we would have knowledge of all the cards from the new set at once, we could make a better educated guess. The hype obviously also plays the role and other factors. I get what ur trying to say, but you just take the parts you want to highligh to make your point, i dont think that provides a relevant overview of the subject, sorry.
To be fair, LoE was all revealed at once and it still had its share of mispredictions. I remember people predicting Elise would be broken, fairly optimistic predictions about Animated Armor and very little attention being given to, for example, Desert Camel, which did create its own decks for a while. This might have to do with the hype, since people don't focus on commons as much as the bigger cards.
With all that being said, I still get that the hourglass-style reveals do disrupt the accuracy of most predictions, but playing the game will always shape decks in a way theorycrafting never can, which means we're always bound to overlook certain flaws or strengths that will end up taking over the meta until we see them first-hand.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Start of Year: Provoke the failure of 3 expansions, force nerfs on otherwise balanced cards, bring deckbuilding to an all-time low and get rotated one year earlier for being such a threat to the game's health. - Genn and Baku's historical entry on the White Book of Shit Design, shortly before retiring unpunished
Lads, I know it's not card reveal season, nor anything even close to that, but I'd like to touch this topic while new cards aren't draining all our attention. I want to talk about the many, many, many complaints we all love to make about how awful the community is at predicting the power level of upcoming cards. However, I'll play the Devil's Advocate on this one. I say we should be glad that most of our predictions are misses instead of hits. Why? Fun factor and unpredictability.
Here's a list of cards that the community generally predicted right:
See a pattern? These cards are either obviously powerful (boring) or obviously filler-tier bad (also boring). Meanwhile, a few of the (huge list of) cards the community guessed wrong are:
These cards stand on similar powerlevels as the cards above, but they have at least been misleading. They required some thought for their true power to be revealed, and must have surprised everyone when they first proved how good/terrible they actually were.
What I'm trying to say is: be glad that the community gets most of these wrong. It at least means the expansions are unpredictable and might be the only thing that fuels the post-release experimenting stage everyone likes so much.
Start of Year: Provoke the failure of 3 expansions, force nerfs on otherwise balanced cards, bring deckbuilding to an all-time low and get rotated one year earlier for being such a threat to the game's health.
- Genn and Baku's historical entry on the White Book of Shit Design, shortly before retiring unpunished
I think the order of reveals is also a big factor in missed predictions. A lot of the generic aggro/tempo cards get dumped on the last day of reveals, so while everyone is theory crafting around the cool new epics and legendaries, cards like Small Time Buccaneer and Corridor Creeper don't get noticed until they start destroying everything in their path. People tend to think the meta will be slower than it turns out to be. People who enjoy brewing aren't usually into fast decks, so they often miss the strength of aggro cards.
People also tend to overestimate the drawback of deck building restrictions versus payoff cards (Prince K, Baku/Genn, people were even unsure about Reno). But I agree that it's cool that out takes a while to figure out which cards are good and that we the community are wrong a lot.
While there is some truth to what ur saying, the fact that those votes (or majority of them anyway) come from the day the card(s) is(are) released, the results r very skewed. I think if we would have knowledge of all the cards from the new set at once, we could make a better educated guess. The hype obviously also plays the role and other factors. I get what ur trying to say, but you just take the parts you want to highligh to make your point, i dont think that provides a relevant overview of the subject, sorry.
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This is a big factor that I think I only witnessed actually happening during KoFT, and to be fair it does misdirect a lot of predictions and hype.
To be fair, LoE was all revealed at once and it still had its share of mispredictions. I remember people predicting Elise would be broken, fairly optimistic predictions about Animated Armor and very little attention being given to, for example, Desert Camel, which did create its own decks for a while. This might have to do with the hype, since people don't focus on commons as much as the bigger cards.
With all that being said, I still get that the hourglass-style reveals do disrupt the accuracy of most predictions, but playing the game will always shape decks in a way theorycrafting never can, which means we're always bound to overlook certain flaws or strengths that will end up taking over the meta until we see them first-hand.
Start of Year: Provoke the failure of 3 expansions, force nerfs on otherwise balanced cards, bring deckbuilding to an all-time low and get rotated one year earlier for being such a threat to the game's health.
- Genn and Baku's historical entry on the White Book of Shit Design, shortly before retiring unpunished
You think this is bad
Look at the community card ratings for KnC. Look at the bottom of the raw vote data for some real gems
https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/card-discussion/208932-kobolds-catacombs-community-compendium-qa-all-card
cards with unique mechanics being more difficult to evaluate is not that surprising