Hearthpwn

Wow, this is insane. Control Hunter struggles in the current meta because it has a hard time dealing with aggro. With this card, Control Hunter is about to dominate.

Quote from Tahladnas »

Quote from plsDontShoot »

cabal shadowpriest says hi (same goes for the warlock card =D)

If your cabal can only steal this card on turn 6, u have bigger problems in your hands.

because this card will definitely never get dropped on the board after turn 6 Kappa

Ragnaros! Only top tier legendary I've ever gotten via pack.

Quote from Tahladnas »

2 variables unaccounted for: possible new 1-drops from BRM, and possible dragon hate tech cards from BRM.

Other than that, agree that it is superb value for 4 mana. 

I'll provide updates on new one drops if/when they release them.

Quote from Mister_Smith »

Quote from thej00 »

Quote from Mister_Smith »

No Velerios, you are incorrect. The most common drops from Hungry Dragon will be 1/2. Pretty much everything you said in your post is off base, except that the fact that this card will be very good in priest.

There is a total of 34 one drops this card could potentially spawn since those cards are known for not spawning token creatures and only choose from the pool of actually collectible cards. 

Exactly 12 out of those are 2/1s or better - Dust Devil Zombie Chow etc. - among the remaining ones there are at least 5 cards that might be considered equally valuable Argent Squire, Mana Wyrm and so on and also 3 providing a taunt which will be relevant most of the time. 

So while you might not get a 2/1 on average the chance of getting something with at least half decent value is really high.

Incorrect Mr. Smith. The odds of your opponent getting a 2 or 3 attack minion are 38.2%.

And i never said anything else? I have even listed the number ob those minions and yes i can do the math myself and there is literally nothing in my post that would contradict your statement. (the numbers roughly match, might be a miss count somewhere)

So maybe before throwing around phrases like "incorrect" really read the post? What i said was that you do NOT get a 2(+) attack minion on average but that the probability of getting a minion that has some value in one form or another - Argent Squire with divine shield, Mana Wyrm which can potentially be buffed, Voidwalker with taunt etc. - is pretty high and shouldn't be underestimated instead of just looking at raw stats.

I probably should've elaborated more in my response, so I apologize if I sounded terse and for my lack of explanation. I counted Argent Squire as a two attack minion in my calculation because of divine shield, which is probably why our numbers don't match. The reason that I said you're incorrect is because the odds that an opponent gets a minion with an effect that can make it valuable to them are incredibly small. 

Finally, you will always have an opportunity to react to whatever drops from Hungry Dragon before you end your turn. Because of the fact that the odds of giving your opponent a USEFUL, valuable minion are very low, combined with the fact that you can react to said minion before the end of your turn, I believe it to be highly improbable that your opponent will get half decent value out of the one drop on a regular basis.

Quote from Velerios »

Quote from thej00 »

Quote from Mister_Smith »

No Velerios, you are incorrect. The most common drops from Hungry Dragon will be 1/2. Pretty much everything you said in your post is off base, except that the fact that this card will be very good in priest.

There is a total of 34 one drops this card could potentially spawn since those cards are known for not spawning token creatures and only choose from the pool of actually collectible cards. 

Exactly 12 out of those are 2/1s or better - Dust Devil Zombie Chow etc. - among the remaining ones there are at least 5 cards that might be considered equally valuable Argent Squire, Mana Wyrm and so on and also 3 providing a taunt which will be relevant most of the time. 

So while you might not get a 2/1 on average the chance of getting something with at least half decent value is really high.

Incorrect Mr. Smith. The odds of your opponent getting a 2 or 3 attack minion are 38.2%.

For now we don't know yet what Blackrock brings out on 1 mana creatures. Also yes it might be true that there's only a chance of ~38%, but even the 1 attack-creatures can be dangerous: Argent squire is a 2/1 for example, buffed even worse, Goldshire Footman is a 1/2 with taunt that is very good on an empty board. 1/2 Lightwarden against Priest can wreck you, since it quickly grows into a 9/2, Mana Wyrm also only have 1/3 in theory, but think of giving Rogue a Mana Wyrm; but also every other deck that have spells will benefit from it heavily. Cogmaster is in many decks also always a 3/2 and not a 1/2, Undertaker will also benefit from an attack bonus since most decks have deathrattle in it. Timber Wolf against a hunter; ouch and even Secretkeeper might be useful for some classes.

And Angry Chicken... i would never include it in a deck, but if i get an Angry chicken and give him Velen's Chosen... can be fun ^^

Thanks for telling me that we don't know what one drop creatures will come from Blackrock. I didn't realize that. I completely missed that none of the cards that were released had a mana cost of one.

So, yeah, I can't predict the future, but when/if they do release more one mana minions in the expansion, I'll add them to my calculations.

In the stat I gave above, I counted Argent Squire as a 2 attack minion. I'm really not worried about my opponent having a Goldshire Footman when I'm getting a 5/6. The odds of giving a priest a Lightwarden, a Rogue or a Mage a Mana Wyrm, a Hunter a Timberwolf, or a Mech Deck a Cogmaster, are incredibly low. Secret decks run Mad Scientist, so the odds of Secretkeeper becoming useful are also quite low. The odds of your Angry Chicken-Velen's Chosen combo are also incredibly low.

You can list all the worst case scenarios like you do above, but the fact of the matter is that they will rarely ever happen. The only card with an effect that I think most opponents will be able to utilize frequently is Undertaker because of the prevalence of Piloted Shredder as a four drop.

Quote from Mister_Smith »

No Velerios, you are incorrect. The most common drops from Hungry Dragon will be 1/2. Pretty much everything you said in your post is off base, except that the fact that this card will be very good in priest.

There is a total of 34 one drops this card could potentially spawn since those cards are known for not spawning token creatures and only choose from the pool of actually collectible cards. 

Exactly 12 out of those are 2/1s or better - Dust Devil Zombie Chow etc. - among the remaining ones there are at least 5 cards that might be considered equally valuable Argent Squire, Mana Wyrm and so on and also 3 providing a taunt which will be relevant most of the time. 

So while you might not get a 2/1 on average the chance of getting something with at least half decent value is really high.

Incorrect Mr. Smith. The odds of your opponent getting a 2 or 3 attack minion are 38.2%.

Quote from Mecha_Lynx »

Quote from thej00 »

Quote from Metzelmax »

Returning a card to your hand can be benefitial, whereas giving your opponents minions is rarely ever benificial.

Unless it's the crazy dude always preaching on the corner.

THE END IS COMING!

 

But that's a 2-drop.

I'm aware. Simply wanted to point out a situation where giving your opponent a minion is beneficial.

Quote from Metzelmax »

People called sludgebelcher a bad tazdingo at first, too^^

Lots of people (myself included) initially disliked Piloted Shredder too. Look at how that turned how.

Quote from Velerios »

Sorry, but all the people who say this is op and trades evenly with sludge belcher: do you all forget Ancient Brewmaster? He was a 5/4 to beginn with and traded always evenly with this card. Now we get a 5/4 (the enemy 1 mana is mostly a 2/1) that also trades evenly with the enemy. so it's no different, both traded always evenly with him. But still it does not outclass sludge belcher; as long as he is 2 taunts in 1 he will be always useful.

In the end this card will be no autoinclude in every deck: if you can deal with him the 1 drop can be very dangerous: Think of giving the enemy rogue a Dust Devil, then he oils him... instant loss.

Does not say it happens always and he is strong, but not stronger than cards we already have. And compared to Goblin Blastmage, he is still worse.

Only deck this will be a auto-include is Priest: we can heal the damage of the 1 mana minion easily away: even more: we can give him a 1 mana minion, trade with another minion and draw something with Northshire Cleric.

Edit: We also have Lost Talstrider since the last xpack and nobody plays him. so why should Hungry Dragon now be an auto-include in all aggro-decks: Lost Tallstrider doesn't have a drawback but still nobody plays him. So i don't think that the upcoming 5/4 will be played too (except priest)

No Velerios, you are incorrect. The most common drops from Hungry Dragon will be 1/2. Pretty much everything you said in your post is off base, except that the fact that this card will be very good in priest.

Quote from SeraphicFire »

Quote from thej00 »

Quote from SeraphicFire »

I dont find this card being that good? giving stuff to your opponent is not good, unless you combo it with MCT or anything else, but why you would run this card, for example over Pit Lord? That minion that you give to our opponent can just be buffed or anything else, or it simply make your Dragon a 5/4??? I have to see it first, I only see it "viable" in Dragon decks.

You still have the opportunity to remove whatever minion you give your opponent before the end of your turn. Nobody seems to realize this.

What, i am the only one to realize this?? nope, look at this tweet:

https://twitter.com/ArchonXixo/status/573888549965139968

Foolish to say that without having a clue as to what other one drops will be released in the adventure, or having an idea about how the meta will be when the adventure is released. There are plenty of pros who like Hungry Dragon. If after the adventure is released, the meta shifts to a very aggro meta that can easily buff their minions, this card might not be very good, but it's impossible to say until we know more.

Quote from Metzelmax »

Returning a card to your hand can be benefitial, whereas giving your opponents minions is rarely ever benificial.

Unless it's the crazy dude always preaching on the corner.

THE END IS COMING!

Quote from pflaume2003 »

Good analysis. But you left out the effects some minions have and just isolated the stats.

I'm mostly thinking about Webspinner here, but Undertaker, Timber Wolf, Mana Wyrm (for rogue), Northshire Cleric,Blood Imp,Argent Squire,Lightwarden also come to my mind.

Just saying the card is probably a tiny bit weaker than your analysis shows. Still in my opinion a damn good card. And a damn good analysis from your side.

edit: never mind - just saw some else already posted what i said lol

Yeah, the card probably is slightly weaker than what my analysis shows. However, the only purpose of my analysis is to provide a theoretical baseline value for the card. It's impossible to account for all of the scenarios that can occur in all honesty.

Quote from FinalFortune »

That card is probably going to end up in Rogue like Spectral Knight ended up in Druid as a good but not necessarily great 4 drop alternative - Piloted Shredder is a steep competitor to climb over, let's not forget yee who is in all decks right now.

While your point about Piloted Shredder is fair, look at all the cards that Hungry Dragon trades evenly with or out-trades that Piloted Shredder is unable to do so with.

Quote from musicmf »

The minion you summon for the enemy has 56% chance to have 1 health (Many hero powers drop this), 26% chance for 2 health (Common removal generally), and 15% chance for 3 Health.

If the 1-Mana minion gets to trade with the dragon, it has a 65% chance to be 0~1 attack. Leaving the dragon at 5/5 or 5/6. Making this pretty nice for its cost. That leaves 35% chance for 2~3 attack minions. This would leave the dragon at 5/4 or 5/3, not exactly stellar.
Of course, you have to consider something like the enemy using a buff card (Dark Iron Dwarf for example) to make the 1-mana minion deal even more damage.
(Oh, and Cogmaster could be a 3/2, changing the numbers around. Depends on the enemy's board)

Some minions to consider before summoning this dragon:

- Argent Squire (Divine Shield)
- Clockwork Gnome (Spare Parts)
- Leper Gnome (Deathrattle: 2 Damage)
- Webspinner (Deathrattle: Minion creation)

- Cogmaster (vs Mech Decks)
- Lightwarden (vs Priest)
- Northshire Cleric (vs Priest)
- Mana Wyrm (vs Spell classes)
- Murloc Tidecaller (vs Murloc Decks)
- Secretkeeper (vs Secret Classes)
- Timber Wolf (vs Beast Hunters)
- Undertaker (vs Deathrattle Decks)

- Goldshire Footman (1/2 Taunt)
- Shieldbearer (0/4 Taunt)
- Voidwalker (1/3 Taunt)

- Worgen Infiltrator (Stealth)
- Blood Imp (Stealth, gives minions health)
- Young Priestess (Gives minions health)
- Dust Devil (Windfury)
- Young Dragonhawk (Windfury)

- Flame Imp (3/2, One of the strongest picks)
- Zombie Chow (2/3, either one of the best minions; or free 5 health recovery)

 

Each of those has around a 3% chance each of being summoned.
I think one of the most important to consider would be the taunts (If it could mess up plays, so attack first). So there's a good ~9% chance that a taunt can mess up a play.

***These numbers are rounded, and don't take into consideration any new 1-Mana drops that BRM will be adding to the game***

Thankfully, the odds of problem creatures dropping for the right classes are quite poor. Cogmaster to Mech Mage is a problem, but it's worthless if you give it to an oil rogue or a warrior.