So with some friends, we thought about the chances of an OTK with Unstable Evolution. The basis of this calculation was that it will happen in wild format, and we will begin with a 0 mana cost minion.
The first thing that one of us came up with, was this order:
*in the case of Al'Akir I calculated with 6 output damage
So first I counted the combinations of these, and after that I calculated the damage output for every combination. We have 432 combinations, and 418 of them have 30 or higher damage output, so let's call these the OTK combos.
With the current card pool (without Kobolds and Catacombs minions) we can have 2609349221475610000 (!!) combinations from Unstable Evolution.
So, the chances we have an OTK combination with Unstable Evolution are 0,0000000000000160193199346317%. The chance of 40 damage OTK is 0,0000000000000000766475%
That means after 6.242.462.252.334.000 tries we will certainly see the OTK combo.
So I think we should wait a little longer to see a Trolden video with this combo.
So with some friends, we thought about the chances of an OTK with Unstable Evolution. The basis of this calculation was that it will happen in wild format, and we will begin with a 0 mana cost minion.
The first thing that one of us came up with, was this order:
Snowflipper Penguin -> Stonetusk Boar -> Bluegill Warrior -> Wolfrider -> Kor'kron Elite -> Leeroy Jenkins -> Reckless Rocketeer -> Skycap'n Kragg -> Charged Devilsaur -> and finally King Krush
This example means 40 damage output in one turn, so in most cases it's an OTK.
However, I tried to find more cases, so I made some calculations.
In Wild format we have these cards with charge (without any conditions)
*in the case of Al'Akir I calculated with 6 output damage
So first I counted the combinations of these, and after that I calculated the damage output for every combination.
We have 432 combinations, and 418 of them have 30 or higher damage output, so let's call these the OTK combos.
With the current card pool (without Kobolds and Catacombs minions) we can have 2609349221475610000 (!!) combinations from Unstable Evolution.
So, the chances we have an OTK combination with Unstable Evolution are 0,0000000000000160193199346317%.
The chance of 40 damage OTK is 0,0000000000000000766475%
That means after 6.242.462.252.334.000 tries we will certainly see the OTK combo.
So I think we should wait a little longer to see a Trolden video with this combo.
TL;DR:
The chances are: 0,0000000000000160193199346317%
You're welcome
You should make a list which calculates the odds into evolving into the worst possible minion for that mana.
Like Doomsayer, the 7-mana 1/1 paladin legendary, and so on.
That's very specific number I never knew it was that important to math out a digital card. Gold star 10/10 effort
Do or do not. There is no try.