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    posted a message on How do y'all do it?!
    Quote from ImLikeWhoaaa >>
    Quote from VenoChron >>

    No, it's literally just practice. The more you play arena, the better you get. With 7-8 wins per run, going infinite or near-infinite in arena is not too difficult. Getting to that point, however, takes some persistent effort and patience.

     probably less than 100 people in the world avg 7-8 wins..
     Statistically, 8.98% of all runs go 7+ wins.
    Even if only 1 million people play arena regularly, that's still nearly 90k runs.  Pretty sure 100 people aren't doing all those runs themselves.
    Posted in: The Arena
  • 1

    posted a message on Your Experience Playing Hearthstone Thus Far

    Paraphrased from Reddit:  HearthStone is like that girlfriend who's no good for you but to whom you've become too attached to leave.

    I've been playing since BRM, and despite trying to quit several times (I actually managed to for 3 weeks just before and during KFT), I just can't seem to pull myself away.

    I often feel mysteriously pressured to play every day -- or at least enough to knock out daily quests every 3 days.  Part of that feeling comes from having spent so much time and money on this game that I can't bear to drop all the "work" I've put in.

    Advise I would give to any player is to avoid watching the "Salty" streamers.  While Kripp certainly speaks more truth than not, it's easy to let his negativity get in your head and jade your experience.  (Instead, watch Kibler, DisguisedToast, Savjz, etc.)

    Overall, HS is worth playing -- especially if you're familiar with Blizzard's universes.  However, it costs a significant amount of time and/or money to "keep up".

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on help on crafting pleasee

    If you enjoy the game enough to keep playing with your current collection, I'd advise to just hold onto your dust until the next Standard rotation.  The 1st expansion of the next rotation will be good for 12 months.

    Posted in: Standard Format
  • 0

    posted a message on Wasted my dust on Velen now I feel bad.

    I swapped Velen in for N'Zoth and generally get more value.  It's not a total loss.

    Posted in: Priest
  • 2

    posted a message on Is the Starving Buzzard being starved of deck time?

    The crux of the problem is that it triggers upon summoning a minion.  Change the text to play along with re-balancing its cost, and things will be fine.

    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on What is the best/easiest time to play?

    For you, when do you find the opponents are easiest [in Ladder as well as Arena]?

    In the Arena, I find matches are easiest from about midnight-2am Central Time.  Sunday all day feels easiest for Ladder, though at Rank 5+, there seems to be no easier times at all.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Ultimate infestation for the other 8 classes

    I like the idea, but I don't think these cards are anywhere near the power level of Ultimate Infestation, because UI shores up the Druid's weakness (card draw and lack of tempo post-ramp).  They should all be doing something their class typically can't do (like killing 4-attack minions in Priest).

    Posted in: Fan Creations
  • 0

    posted a message on Gahz'rilla OTK
    I agree that this kind of combo is nigh impossible to pull off.  Any opponent who lets Tundra Rhino survive a turn is either terrible or completely out of answers (in which case, you'd probably win the match anyway).  
    Posted in: Wild Format
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    posted a message on What is the probability of getting a specific zombeast?
    Quote from mungo2613 >>

     

    EDIT: There are 10 adaptations not 6 anyway :P

     Why did I think it was only 6?  (I blame sleepy.)  Thanks.  (I'm going to sleep now.)
    I corrected my previous post.
    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on What is the probability of getting a specific zombeast?
    Quote from mungo2613 >>

     EDIT: In before someone asks, if I build a Zombeast, and I need a either the classic Bittertide Hydra/Stonetusk Boar combo or the alternative Vicious Fledgling/Stonetusk Boar combo but I'd then need the Vicious Fledgling to get windfury into either +1/+1 or +3 attack, what are the odds for that?

    Chance to get any one particular adaptation is 1 - (9/10) * (8/9) * (7/8) = 30 %

    Chance to get any of two adaptations is 1 - (8/10) * (7/9) * (6/8) = 53.333 %

    So to get a Stonetusk Fledgling and then roll Windfury into +1/+1 or +3 attack is 0.01357466 * 0.3 * 0.53333 = 0.21719456 %

    EDIT:  Why did I think there were only 6 adaptations?  Corrected ...

    Posted in: Card Discussion
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    posted a message on What is the probability of getting a specific zombeast?
    Quote from mungo2613 >>
    Isn't it 34 and 15 (if the picture was correct?).
     
    I counted them manually within Hearthstone.  The picture appears to be missing KFT beasts. 
    Posted in: Card Discussion
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    posted a message on What is the probability of getting a specific zombeast?

    Bittertide Hydra can only be chosen during the first Discover set, which is out of 39 cards.

    Stonetusk Boar can only be chosen during the second Discover set, which is out of 17 cards.

    Odds of succeeding the first step is 1 - ( 38/39 * 37/38 * 36/37 ) = 7.692307 %

    Odds of succeeding the second step is 1 - ( 16/17 * 15/16 * 14/15 ) = 17.647058 %

    Odds of succeeding both steps is 0.07692307 * 0.17647058 = 1.357466 %

    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on What is the probability of getting a specific zombeast?

    From https://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Deathstalker_Rexxar:

    • Build-a-Beast allows the player to create a Zombeast through a Discover-like interface. The player is presented with 3 Beast minions twice to choose from. The first choice will always be from Beasts with card text, whereas the second choice will always be from Beasts with either only keywords or no card text at all.[1] A minion card is then generated for the player with the combined mana costs, Attack, Health and card text of the two Beasts. The Zombeast will have the card art and quotes of the first minion chosen.[2][3]
      • Minions with Battlecry and Enrage count as being in the first pool of cards, since they have additional text besides the keyword to specify what their effect does (for example, "Battlecry: Deal 1 damage", or "Enrage: +2 Attack", instead of simply "Battlecry" or "Enrage").[4][5]
      • Hunter Beasts and neutral Beasts have an equal chance of being offered.[1]
      • The player will never be offered a Beast that costs more than 5 mana, since this could potentially create a Zombeast that costs more than 10 mana and is thus impossible to play under normal circumstances.[6]
    • If Build-a-Beast creates a Zombeast with a Deathrattle effect, the Zombeast will be able to be resummoned by N'Zoth, the Corruptor's Battlecry.[7]

    My previous answer was way off.  Recalculating ...

    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on What is the probability of getting a specific zombeast?
    Quote from mungo2613 >>

    ...

    I still think we may have to split the cases based on how many hunter beasts we see in the discover if they are weighted.

     As per Ben Brode, "A class card is 4x more likely to be discovered."  (https://twitter.com/bdbrode/status/666359351980920832)
    Posted in: Card Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on What is the probability of getting a specific zombeast?

    At 5-mana or less, there are 20 Hunter Beasts and 36 Neutral Beasts

    Since Class cards are 4x more likely to appear, the total pool is essentially out of (20*4) + 36 = 116.

    The odds of NOT getting one of the two desired beasts on the first step is (114/116) * (113/115) * (112/114) = 94.872563 %

    Therefore the odds of succeeding in the 1st step is 5.127436 %

    And, the odds of NOT getting the other desired beast on the second step is (114/115) * (113/114) * (112/113) = 97.391304 %

    Therefore, the odds of succeeding in the 2nd step is 2.608695 %

    The odds of succeeding at both is 0.05127436 * 0.02608695 = 0.133759 %

     

    EDIT:  Forgot to consider duplicates.

    EDIT2:  Sources or duplicates:  Source, Source, Source

    EDIT3:  Omitting Beasts of other classes (whoops).

    Posted in: Card Discussion
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