Hearthpwn

Quote from mungo2613 >>

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I still think we may have to split the cases based on how many hunter beasts we see in the discover if they are weighted.

At 5-mana or less, there are 20 Hunter Beasts and 36 Neutral Beasts

Since Class cards are 4x more likely to appear, the total pool is essentially out of (20*4) + 36 = 116.

The odds of NOT getting one of the two desired beasts on the first step is (114/116) * (113/115) * (112/114) = 94.872563 %

Therefore the odds of succeeding in the 1st step is 5.127436 %

And, the odds of NOT getting the other desired beast on the second step is (114/115) * (113/114) * (112/113) = 97.391304 %

Therefore, the odds of succeeding in the 2nd step is 2.608695 %

The odds of succeeding at both is 0.05127436 * 0.02608695 = 0.133759 %

EDIT:  Forgot to consider duplicates.

EDIT2:  Sources or duplicates:  Source, Source, Source

EDIT3:  Omitting Beasts of other classes (whoops).

For me, a comparison of HS to other CGs is moot, because I don't enjoy the others like I do Hearthstone.  I would never argue that HS is cheap, but compared to what other video games [of varying genre and type] offer, Hearthstone is worth considering.

And, as was mentioned by a couple others, AAA titles are finite, so I have to consider not only their initial cost but also the quantity of them I would need to fill the same timeslot as HS.  That brings the overall price of HS more in line with what I already have been spending on other games and entertainment.

Quote from futhead_HarassedGiraffe >>

I have no idea why you're comparing hearth to other genres. Compare it to other tcgs, Hearthstone is extremely expensive...

Whether it be Exodia, pre-Warsong nerf Grim Patron, mill, any-flavour-OTK, or whatever, combo decks have and always will be the highest skill decks.  While combo decks are quite linear because of their single win condition, their pilot must typically think several turns ahead all while constantly calculating and re-calculating their own odds of drawing into the combo pieces and weighing that against their opponents draws and potential reach options.  Games are often decided by milling/freezing at the wrong time or when the pilot breaks the combo pieces for an alternate win condition with better odds than waiting for the combo. 

TLDR:  At what I call the "moderately high end" of Hearthstone, it still only costs $1 per day for essentially unlimited playtime.  I spend more than that on Mountain Dew and coffee.

While explaining economics to my son and why I'm willing to buy for him premium currency and items in some games but not others, I managed to change my mind a lot on how expensive Hearthstone is.

I'll start quickly with a little perspective, since I reached my new conclusion by comparison with other games.

In games like Castle Crush or Clash of Clans, unlocking things with premium currency doesn't ultimately help with the reward system -- they just allow the player to more quickly get to the next paywall.  The game is literally pay to play ... you'll either continually pay with $IRL or with a LOT of time (typically in the form of waiting while unable to even play the game).

In titles like Forza, Fallout, Witcher, Civilization, Mass Effect, DragonAge, etc, purchasing the game allows you to play as much or as little as you want.  There is no paywall.  Granted, there's typically a point where you beat, finish, or just lose interest in the game, but you can still pay once and play ad nauseam.

I don't spend money on games with persistent unavoidable paywalls.

So onto Hearthstone now ...

Prior to each expansion, Blizzard offers a 50-pack pre-order for $50 USD.  During the ~120 days between expansions, players can easily earn 7200g [at 60g per day for wins + daily quests] -- or 72 more packs.  So for $50 every ~3 months, a player can open 122 packs per expansion.  (This is generally enough cards to amass a decent, competitive collection.)

To really feel like you're getting the most out of Hearthstone, I think 180 packs per expansion is a great goal.  That means another $70 USD for 60 more packs.  At a grand total of $120 per ~120, that comes out to $1 per day.  I spend more than that on Mountain Dew and coffee.

Unlike many popular mobile games, Hearthstone has no hard paywall.  The more you win at the game, the more you earn, which makes it easier still to win more games, which makes it easier to -- you get the picture.  If anything, Hearthstone's paywall is very soft, because the alternative to $IRL is to play the game more -- not wait for some arbitrary timer to count down.

Like for-purchase titles, Hearthstone also permits unlimited play.  For me, most of these titles are played out after about 2 months.  At $60 a pop for a AAA title every ~2 months, that comes out to $1 per day -- the same as Hearthstone near its high end.

It's worth noting, I think, that if your entire gaming budget is $1 per day, Hearthstone can monopolize that budget -- whereas spending the budget on for-purchase titles means an entirely new game/experience every couple months.  But if your budget is more than that, Hearthstone may not hurt as much as it initially seems.

As others have said, you're probably better of skipping out on them all, unless you're swimming in dust.

If you want to maximize your gold, you should d/e ALL duplicates over 2.  If you have a golden card you know you'll never use, d/e that one also.

I have two accounts (regions).  Each one alternates/staggers which expansion it "mains".  So for this expansion, the one account had almost 15k to burn.  That gives plenty of current cards and enough dust to craft the last expansion's cards still in the meta.  Next expansion, the other region will do the same and become my main for a while.

I like the idea of synergy picks; I just disagree with what cards they thought were synergistic (they put all the activated cards despite the activators being the important ones).

I'd like to see them bring it back with one list of activators and another of activated ... and then offer once from each list but also at random times.

I used to accept their request knowing I could just report them for being cancer, but Blizzard has long since removed (or hidden all too well) that option.  It's unfortunate, because now I just don't accept potential ragequests.

Jade Druid is mostly Common & Rare cards.  Even a budget version using just those can get you to Rank 5 easily enough.  Unless you want to push to Legend, I don't think it's worth spending 3k dust.

Quote from Sinti >>

Quote from Maehlice >>

For me, the real issue is duplicates.

When you open 100 packs (valued $120 USD) and are still missing a dozen rares and most of the epics, despite having a substantial number of duplicates, it really feelsbadman.

Either one of two things would be better, IMO:  (A) we can't open duplicate Rares or Legendaries or (B) duplicates starting at the 3rd d/e for more dust.

But duplicate Epics r fair game ?:D

For me, the real issue is duplicates.

When you open 100 packs (valued $120 USD) and are still missing a dozen rares and most of the epics, despite having a substantial number of duplicates, it really feelsbadman.

Either one of two things would be better, IMO:  (A) we can't open duplicate Rares or Legendaries or (B) duplicates starting at the 3rd d/e for more dust.

Almost every deck is the problem, because they all feel like bullsh!t to play against.

If anything, I LIKE playing against a Jade Druid, because at least with that deck, I know what I'm in for.  There are no unexpected events, which actually makes it a skillful game navigating the turns and leveraging my resources to exhaust them.

All these other bullsh!t decks are a different story, because they either draw blanks and make for a boring game or they highroll and stomp you in the stupidest you don't stand a chance way possible.

And then there's Arena, where seeing decks with 3 Legendary minions and a DK Hero is f*cking normal starting around 6 wins.

This expansion has some serious issues everywhere you look.