Ok so i readily admit that i could be wrong about this, but it seems to me that there is a way higher likelihood of pulling an unplayable rare/epic/legendary as opposed to a playable one from packs. To all of you guys that have bought 40 packs just ask yourselves, how many of those rares were stuff like azure drake/defender of argus/etc compared to ancient mage/angry chicken/etc.
From a business perspective it's pretty genius for Blizzard to make the playable cards statistically lower odds of being opened thus forcing players to buy more packs but it would be pretty messed up if that's what they do.
Anyone else feel like this or am i just being salty from my disappointing pack openings?
For example on my first account I opened about 15 packs and got Rag, Gruul and a golden Tirion Fordring but after starting my new account I've opened about 20 packs and got 2 epics or something.
*sigh* it's just RNG people, there's no hidden things. Blizzard could only hurt themselves with stuff like that. Don't let yourself get talked into these conspiracy theories, cause you never got a pack with a Golden Legendary in it, or even a good legendary. The system works as described, you just haven't gotten on the good side of RNG yet.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
If you see a bad post on the forum use the report function under it, so I or someone else of the moderation team can take care of it!
*sigh* it's just RNG people, there's no hidden things. Blizzard could only hurt themselves with stuff like that. Don't let yourself get talked into these conspiracy theories, cause you never got a pack with a Golden Legendary in it, or even a good legendary. The system works as described, you just haven't gotten on the good side of RNG yet.
That sounds like something THEY would say.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
If you see a post that you find objectionable, report it, it helps keep the forum clean. But be aware people are allowed a lot of latitude.
If you find my posts to be rude, objectionable, or whatever, well, I got tired of writing polite TL; DR (Too Long, Didn't Read) posts at crybaby whiners. So now I just make it short and nasty.
If you find that funny, well and good. If you find that sad, that's even better.
Obviously its far more likely to get a 'bad' rare/epic/legendary than a 'good' one.
Cause there are about 5 bad ones for every good one. So the odds of getting a unplayable rare are about 5 times higher. Thats just common sense. There is no evil conspiracy, its just there are more unplayable ones so you will obviously get them more often.
One of my friend's first legendary was a golden jaraxus and his second legendary was a golden antonidas; and he's a f2p player; i don't think packs are as rigged as you think.
*sigh* it's just RNG people, there's no hidden things. Blizzard could only hurt themselves with stuff like that. Don't let yourself get talked into these conspiracy theories, cause you never got a pack with a Golden Legendary in it, or even a good legendary. The system works as described, you just haven't gotten on the good side of RNG yet.
I agree with your conclusion, but not your reasoning for it. Blizzard would stand to gain by having a skewed RNG that doesnt work as intended, but it would be far too hard to keep that under wraps. I mean, I am sure a lot of people have worked on these RNGs, and if it werent on the up and up, someone probably would have anonymously whistleblown about it.
But if you dont think it happens, look no further than Ultimate Bet/Absolute Poker. The website funneled literally millions of dollars to its top players by allowing for people to cheat at online poker. And it didnt happen once, it happened twice. And then Full Tilt poker later turned out to be a massive ponzi scheme. And you can say that these are shady businesses, but these were businesses owned and run by well known american poker players, they were considered to be the safest company in the business.
Most people probably base their conclusions on their own small sample sizes, and dont understand the concept of statistical variance, however the easiest way to figure out whether or not a system is working as intended is to look at the extreme ends of variance. I actually dont think blizzard would do this on purpose, but based on some of the evidence I have received, I think it is VERY unlikely that the RNGs are working as intended.
I mean, put the "1 in 20 packs"/"1 in 400 packs" legendary/golden legendary numbers into a calculator and see what kind of odds there are for some of the packs that people have drawn. They are 1,000,000+:1. I mean, the odds of getting two legendaries in a pack is ~500:1 (dont feel like doing the exact math), and the odds of having a legendary and a golden legendary in the same pack is ~10,000:1. So how is it that between myself and my two friends, we have had TWO packs with a legendary and a golden legendary, and yet another pack with two legendaries in it? we have spent a low amount or no money at all on the game. I would guess that between the four of us we have maybe opened 400 packs total?
And if you look up the best packs ever that people have posted, do some math on what the odds of pulling one of those types of packs would be, the likelyhood is shockingly low. True Random generation is impossible in a computer, and my guess is that Hearhtstone's RNG is grouping numbers together, which allows for certain packs to be unbelieveably good, and leaves the rest of the packs as weaker than expected.
There are more "bad" cards than good cards, and there are a LOT of situationally good cards.
Oh, and the reason that gold cards drop so rarely is that they have aren't in the same pool as other cards, if 50% of all cards were golden then what's the point and why do they cost so much more?
I've seen amazing packs, terrible ones, and mediocre ones.
RNG conspiracy theories are everywhere, it's a staple of games with heavy RNG elements.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Unless explicitly stated, my posts are my opinion and mine only.
Personally I have pulled really good Legendaries. I got a Golden Nat Page before the nerf and dusted him for 3200 dust. I've got about 10 Legendary cards with only one duplicate, which was Nat Page after I had dusted him.
I got a golden Lord Jaraxxus and dusted him (For Archmage Antonidas since I play mage). After opening about 120 packs, some are good, some are terrible like the one I opened last night. The best you can hope for is more than 40 dust but sometimes you get lucky.
Horrible for business in the long run (due to #2).
Therefore it's bad for them to do on the whole. It's also not supported by anything more than anecdotes but those aren't worth the bandwidth they're printed on. The simple fact that there are millions of players implies there will be tens of thousands of players with godawful luck and tens of thousands with godlike luck. The people with the worst luck will swear the whole thing is rigged and good luck convincing their emotions otherwise with just data and reason.
Maybe a better line of argument is to agree with them that's it rigged but ask how do they know it's Blizzard that rigged it and not Baby Jesus punishing them for touching themselves? Or The Devil/Lizard People/Skynet/The Rothchilds/President Obama/Zombie Elvis? Think about it!1
Its all RNG. One day I bought 5 packs and I got a normal Nat and Golden Alexstraza in back to back packs. The next day bought 10 packs and got 0 legendary and like 1 epic. So I dont think they are rigged.
Blizzard Chief director, also a member of the Illuminati:
LOL
Randomness... ...You always try to see patterns in Randomness its completely normal.
I very constantly get 2 legendaries every 50 packs. Also a huge game company like blizz wont try to scam us by rigging the odds. That would hurt their rep too much.
I think mtg packs are rigged. Garbage rares come by the bushel but those dual lands man you are lucky to get two different ones let alone two of the same.
I think mtg packs are rigged. Garbage rares come by the bushel but those dual lands man you are lucky to get two different ones let alone two of the same.
It's more likely to open one of the dozens of garbage rares than opening one of the five dual lands. That has nothing to do with rigging.
The only way MTG packs are not random is that we have some information about how they physically "randomized" the cards. The same way people who sell scratch-and-wins know if the remainder of a pack has a good chance of containing a winning ticket. On that note, don't get individual packs in MTG unless you have good reasons to believe the seller hasn't rigged the box.
Ok so i readily admit that i could be wrong about this, but it seems to me that there is a way higher likelihood of pulling an unplayable rare/epic/legendary as opposed to a playable one from packs. To all of you guys that have bought 40 packs just ask yourselves, how many of those rares were stuff like azure drake/defender of argus/etc compared to ancient mage/angry chicken/etc.
From a business perspective it's pretty genius for Blizzard to make the playable cards statistically lower odds of being opened thus forcing players to buy more packs but it would be pretty messed up if that's what they do.
Anyone else feel like this or am i just being salty from my disappointing pack openings?
I'm pretty sure it's just luck.
For example on my first account I opened about 15 packs and got Rag, Gruul and a golden Tirion Fordring but after starting my new account I've opened about 20 packs and got 2 epics or something.
Go ahead...hehe...
...nya...
...hmm...make my day.
*sigh* it's just RNG people, there's no hidden things. Blizzard could only hurt themselves with stuff like that. Don't let yourself get talked into these conspiracy theories, cause you never got a pack with a Golden Legendary in it, or even a good legendary. The system works as described, you just haven't gotten on the good side of RNG yet.
If you see a bad post on the forum use the report function under it, so I or someone else of the moderation team can take care of it!
That sounds like something THEY would say.
If you see a post that you find objectionable, report it, it helps keep the forum clean. But be aware people are allowed a lot of latitude.
If you find my posts to be rude, objectionable, or whatever, well, I got tired of writing polite TL; DR (Too Long, Didn't Read) posts at crybaby whiners. So now I just make it short and nasty.
If you find that funny, well and good. If you find that sad, that's even better.
Obviously its far more likely to get a 'bad' rare/epic/legendary than a 'good' one.
Cause there are about 5 bad ones for every good one. So the odds of getting a unplayable rare are about 5 times higher. Thats just common sense. There is no evil conspiracy, its just there are more unplayable ones so you will obviously get them more often.
One of my friend's first legendary was a golden jaraxus and his second legendary was a golden antonidas; and he's a f2p player; i don't think packs are as rigged as you think.
I agree with your conclusion, but not your reasoning for it. Blizzard would stand to gain by having a skewed RNG that doesnt work as intended, but it would be far too hard to keep that under wraps. I mean, I am sure a lot of people have worked on these RNGs, and if it werent on the up and up, someone probably would have anonymously whistleblown about it.
But if you dont think it happens, look no further than Ultimate Bet/Absolute Poker. The website funneled literally millions of dollars to its top players by allowing for people to cheat at online poker. And it didnt happen once, it happened twice. And then Full Tilt poker later turned out to be a massive ponzi scheme. And you can say that these are shady businesses, but these were businesses owned and run by well known american poker players, they were considered to be the safest company in the business.
Most people probably base their conclusions on their own small sample sizes, and dont understand the concept of statistical variance, however the easiest way to figure out whether or not a system is working as intended is to look at the extreme ends of variance. I actually dont think blizzard would do this on purpose, but based on some of the evidence I have received, I think it is VERY unlikely that the RNGs are working as intended.
I mean, put the "1 in 20 packs"/"1 in 400 packs" legendary/golden legendary numbers into a calculator and see what kind of odds there are for some of the packs that people have drawn. They are 1,000,000+:1. I mean, the odds of getting two legendaries in a pack is ~500:1 (dont feel like doing the exact math), and the odds of having a legendary and a golden legendary in the same pack is ~10,000:1. So how is it that between myself and my two friends, we have had TWO packs with a legendary and a golden legendary, and yet another pack with two legendaries in it? we have spent a low amount or no money at all on the game. I would guess that between the four of us we have maybe opened 400 packs total?
And if you look up the best packs ever that people have posted, do some math on what the odds of pulling one of those types of packs would be, the likelyhood is shockingly low. True Random generation is impossible in a computer, and my guess is that Hearhtstone's RNG is grouping numbers together, which allows for certain packs to be unbelieveably good, and leaves the rest of the packs as weaker than expected.
It's just RNG.
There are more "bad" cards than good cards, and there are a LOT of situationally good cards.
Oh, and the reason that gold cards drop so rarely is that they have aren't in the same pool as other cards, if 50% of all cards were golden then what's the point and why do they cost so much more?
I've seen amazing packs, terrible ones, and mediocre ones.
RNG conspiracy theories are everywhere, it's a staple of games with heavy RNG elements.
Unless explicitly stated, my posts are my opinion and mine only.
Personally I have pulled really good Legendaries. I got a Golden Nat Page before the nerf and dusted him for 3200 dust. I've got about 10 Legendary cards with only one duplicate, which was Nat Page after I had dusted him.
Well i saw a friend opening 40 packs and he got Cairne, Ysera, Tirion and Illidan. 3/4 "playable" legendaries in 40 packs not bad huh?
I got a golden Lord Jaraxxus and dusted him (For Archmage Antonidas since I play mage). After opening about 120 packs, some are good, some are terrible like the one I opened last night. The best you can hope for is more than 40 dust but sometimes you get lucky.
Free to try and find a game, dealing cards for sorrow, cards for pain.
Rigging packs is:
Therefore it's bad for them to do on the whole. It's also not supported by anything more than anecdotes but those aren't worth the bandwidth they're printed on. The simple fact that there are millions of players implies there will be tens of thousands of players with godawful luck and tens of thousands with godlike luck. The people with the worst luck will swear the whole thing is rigged and good luck convincing their emotions otherwise with just data and reason.
Maybe a better line of argument is to agree with them that's it rigged but ask how do they know it's Blizzard that rigged it and not Baby Jesus punishing them for touching themselves? Or The Devil/Lizard People/Skynet/The Rothchilds/President Obama/Zombie Elvis? Think about it!1
Its all RNG. One day I bought 5 packs and I got a normal Nat and Golden Alexstraza in back to back packs. The next day bought 10 packs and got 0 legendary and like 1 epic. So I dont think they are rigged.
I spent the 150 gold I had yesterday on an Arena. Had a terrible run and finished 3-3. Opened the pack and found golden Tirion in it. I was happy.
Blizzard = Illuminati, proof:
Blizzard Chief director, also a member of the Illuminati:
Retired Hearthstone Columnist
LOL
Randomness...
...You always try to see patterns in Randomness its completely normal.
I very constantly get 2 legendaries every 50 packs. Also a huge game company like blizz wont try to scam us by rigging the odds. That would hurt their rep too much.
If it never shows any pattern at all, it's not random.
I think mtg packs are rigged. Garbage rares come by the bushel but those dual lands man you are lucky to get two different ones let alone two of the same.
yeah MTG packs are rigged for sure, but I dont think hearthstone ones are.
Retired Hearthstone Columnist
It's more likely to open one of the dozens of garbage rares than opening one of the five dual lands. That has nothing to do with rigging.
The only way MTG packs are not random is that we have some information about how they physically "randomized" the cards. The same way people who sell scratch-and-wins know if the remainder of a pack has a good chance of containing a winning ticket. On that note, don't get individual packs in MTG unless you have good reasons to believe the seller hasn't rigged the box.