What are the 3 cards we can't see? Definitely looks strong, even moreso if there's a weapon we can't see. Lack of draw could be an issue but Loot + Lotus for a little help could be enough.
Jade Chieftan will probably be the source of a few concedes. :D
one of them is tunnel trogg, but I forget the other 2, no weapons though.
What are the 3 cards we can't see? Definitely looks strong, even moreso if there's a weapon we can't see. Lack of draw could be an issue but Loot + Lotus for a little help could be enough.
Jade Chieftan will probably be the source of a few concedes. :D
one of them is tunnel trogg, but I forget the other 2, no weapons though.
Without providing all the information (especially about the crucial early game), you've made it completely impossible to answer the question.
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"Why, you never expected justice from a company, did you? They have neither a soul to lose nor a body to kick." -- Lady Saba Holland
Shaman is very variable, but since you don't have weapons or 4 mana 7/7s or hexes, it can go as low as 2 wins to 7+ wins. I honestly can't guess any decks win rate in this meta, even when I craft an above average deck if I face some insane opponent decks and lose at 1 win.
Shaman is very variable, but since you don't have weapons or 4 mana 7/7s or hexes, it can go as low as 2 wins to 7+ wins. I honestly can't guess any decks win rate in this meta, even when I craft an above average deck if I face some insane opponent decks and lose at 1 win.
Agreed - I've gotten some heartharena scores of 73/74 for my decks, yet they will sometimes only go 2-3 wins due to a paladin/mage/priest getting a perfect curve with high-powered cards.
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Quit complaining and just have fun with this game!
I don't like your early game, and I don't think the jade cards you have will help you come back from it. I think 3 wins, maybe.
Pretty much any deck in arena will get you 3 wins if you aren't terrible. I haven't gone under 4 wins in about 15 runs. If this deck only goes 3-3 then OP is a bad player
I don't like your early game, and I don't think the jade cards you have will help you come back from it. I think 3 wins, maybe.
Pretty much any deck in arena will get you 3 wins if you aren't terrible. I haven't gone under 4 wins in about 15 runs. If this deck only goes 3-3 then OP is a bad player
That's a pretty shitty assumption to make. Even good players have losing streaks. Even good decks have bad draws.
"That's a pretty shitty assumption to make. Even good players have losing streaks. Even good decks have bad draws."
Good players with strong decks in arena rarely ever go under 3 wins. The level of competition you play is very sub par if you happen to fall to 1-2. Sure, of course it could happen and a good player ends an arena 2-3 or something, but my response was directed towards the guy who suggested the deck was 3-3 at best. It's an above-average arena deck to be sure and 90% of the time if you're a good player in arena with a good deck, then you're going to get to 4-5 at least.
And I agree with the above assumption that average players can get at least 3 wins in Arena. Among 38 runs I have made, I failed to reach the 3-wins threshold for only 1 time.
Then you clearly haven't played enough insanity at lower wins.
Last season I played a total of 159 runs, and had a total of 7 runs under 3 wins with a 5.8 average win rate. Getting low wins often had little to do with you but all about how unlucky you get matched with the opponent.
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Regular NA Arena Leaderboard player. Reached #1 in NA arena leaderboard in May 2018 with a 9.07 average!
I played 45 arenas in MSG so far with 5.89 average wins. From these 45 runs, 9 were 3 or less wins (yep, I had an 0/3 too!). So 20% of my arenas are like this. :)
I like to draft dangerously but at least most of my decks are fun. :-p
"That's a pretty shitty assumption to make. Even good players have losing streaks. Even good decks have bad draws."
Good players with strong decks in arena rarely ever go under 3 wins. The level of competition you play is very sub par if you happen to fall to 1-2. Sure, of course it could happen and a good player ends an arena 2-3 or something, but my response was directed towards the guy who suggested the deck was 3-3 at best. It's an above-average arena deck to be sure and 90% of the time if you're a good player in arena with a good deck, then you're going to get to 4-5 at least.
If you brush up on your reading skills, then you will notice that it is the same guy.
"That's a pretty shitty assumption to make. Even good players have losing streaks. Even good decks have bad draws."
Good players with strong decks in arena rarely ever go under 3 wins. The level of competition you play is very sub par if you happen to fall to 1-2. Sure, of course it could happen and a good player ends an arena 2-3 or something, but my response was directed towards the guy who suggested the deck was 3-3 at best. It's an above-average arena deck to be sure and 90% of the time if you're a good player in arena with a good deck, then you're going to get to 4-5 at least.
If you brush up on your reading skills, then you will notice that it is the same guy.
My mistake. I have poor reading skills, but you are just poor at arena. How's that?
ANY arena deck drafted with good cards and a half-decent curve will net good arena players over 3 wins 90% of the time. If you think that deck is 3-3, then you are not good at arena and you are looking at his projected wins total from the POV of someone who is an average arena player at best.
You haven't seen me play arena. I haven't seen you play arena. Neither of us have seen the OP play arena.
I gave this deck a projected 3-3 based on the fact that its early game isn't very strong, the mid game is too heavy, and the jade cards are too slow to compete with other decks. If you knew half as much as you pretend to, you would be able to come up with an argument. Instead, you made up some statistics with undefined parameters, which makes everything you've said a bunch of self indulgent bullshit.
I would actually be happy if the OP would tell us that this deck did really well. I wouldn't mind being wrong about that.
You haven't seen me play arena. I haven't seen you play arena. Neither of us have seen the OP play arena.
I gave this deck a projected 3-3 based on the fact that its early game isn't very strong, the mid game is too heavy, and the jade cards are too slow to compete with other decks. If you knew half as much as you pretend to, you would be able to come up with an argument. Instead, you made up some statistics with undefined parameters, which makes everything you've said a bunch of self indulgent bullshit.
I would actually be happy if the OP would tell us that this deck did really well. I wouldn't mind being wrong about that.
I do have stats to back up my point.... so here goes: I drafted the deck into heartharena (which of course won't be entirely accurate because of not knowing the order of cards drafted, but you'll get a general idea) and the final tier score ended up at 67.4 The synergies for the 4 jade lightnings, 2 jade spirits and jade chieftain really started stacking and pushed the numbers into the 100s for the last few of them. With the amount of removal from 4 jade lightnings and the growing tempo, you can see why they were rated so high.
Now, as for my own arenas with a deck in the tier score range of 67 (courtesy of heartharena + a spreadsheet I keep updated), my average win rate with is 5.7 wins. Attached is my analysis of wins vs tier score. Again, I only know what I know, and what I know is that as my tier scores approach 70, my win totals generally average 5-6 wins per arena.
Given this deck's draft and what I know about my own slightly above average arena performances, there is no way I would project this as a 3-3 deck. There are enough 2 drops to hang on until you draw all those juicy jade lightnings. 9 wins is a stretch prediction for any deck, but an above average player should be able to pilot this one to 6 wins without too much trouble.
ATTACHMENTS
tier score analysis
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9 wins is my estimate
Wimmy wam wam wazzle!
Wimmy wam wam wazzle!
Why use OSX at all is the real question.
9 sounds pretty reasonable.
I don't like your early game, and I don't think the jade cards you have will help you come back from it. I think 3 wins, maybe.
Wimmy wam wam wazzle!
"Why, you never expected justice from a company, did you? They have neither a soul to lose nor a body to kick." -- Lady Saba Holland
Shaman is very variable, but since you don't have weapons or 4 mana 7/7s or hexes, it can go as low as 2 wins to 7+ wins. I honestly can't guess any decks win rate in this meta, even when I craft an above average deck if I face some insane opponent decks and lose at 1 win.
Regular NA Arena Leaderboard player.
Reached #1 in NA arena leaderboard in May 2018 with a 9.07 average!
Quit complaining and just have fun with this game!
"That's a pretty shitty assumption to make. Even good players have losing streaks. Even good decks have bad draws."
Good players with strong decks in arena rarely ever go under 3 wins. The level of competition you play is very sub par if you happen to fall to 1-2. Sure, of course it could happen and a good player ends an arena 2-3 or something, but my response was directed towards the guy who suggested the deck was 3-3 at best. It's an above-average arena deck to be sure and 90% of the time if you're a good player in arena with a good deck, then you're going to get to 4-5 at least.
So how did this end up?
And I agree with the above assumption that average players can get at least 3 wins in Arena. Among 38 runs I have made, I failed to reach the 3-wins threshold for only 1 time.
Then you clearly haven't played enough insanity at lower wins.
Last season I played a total of 159 runs, and had a total of 7 runs under 3 wins with a 5.8 average win rate. Getting low wins often had little to do with you but all about how unlucky you get matched with the opponent.
Regular NA Arena Leaderboard player.
Reached #1 in NA arena leaderboard in May 2018 with a 9.07 average!
I played 45 arenas in MSG so far with 5.89 average wins. From these 45 runs, 9 were 3 or less wins (yep, I had an 0/3 too!). So 20% of my arenas are like this. :)
I like to draft dangerously but at least most of my decks are fun. :-p
In all honesty, 10 wins minimum, and if you're lucky 12! Good luck!
"I wield the power of Blackwing."
You haven't seen me play arena. I haven't seen you play arena. Neither of us have seen the OP play arena.
I gave this deck a projected 3-3 based on the fact that its early game isn't very strong, the mid game is too heavy, and the jade cards are too slow to compete with other decks. If you knew half as much as you pretend to, you would be able to come up with an argument. Instead, you made up some statistics with undefined parameters, which makes everything you've said a bunch of self indulgent bullshit.
I would actually be happy if the OP would tell us that this deck did really well. I wouldn't mind being wrong about that.