Kripparian (one of the top arena players in the world) made a video highlighting this recently. His Paladin and Warlock stats were off the charts in favor of going first. It's definitely a problem.
Kripparian (one of the top arena players in the world) made a video highlighting this recently. His Paladin and Warlock stats were off the charts in favor of going first. It's definitely a problem.
Yeah, that was quite an interesting video. His sample size probably provides more accurate statistics:
Kripparian (one of the top arena players in the world) made a video highlighting this recently. His Paladin and Warlock stats were off the charts in favor of going first. It's definitely a problem.
Yeah, that was quite an interesting video. His sample size probably provides more accurate statistics:
Obviously his winrate is higher than mine, but it's shocking how his spread between going first and second is almost exactly the same as mine. If you look at other people's stats (who've played at least 100 games) it would probably be similar as well.
The difficulty here is that it varies so widely depending on your class. This means there's no blanket cure that will fix the problem across the board without making some classes OP.
But it's important to note that no one really comes out ahead in the long run -- over time, you go first exactly as often as you go second. And while the win rate difference is statistically significant, it's not so large that there's any benefit to auto-conceding just because you lose the coin toss.
There are definitely classes and decks where I prefer to go second. The Coin and the opportunity to see and mulligan four cards are worth it. But the statistics don't lie; there are more classes and decks, especially aggro, that fare better when going first.
There are definitely classes and decks where I prefer to go second. The Coin and the opportunity to see and mulligan four cards are worth it. But the statistics don't lie; there are more classes and decks, especially aggro, that fare better when going first.
Yeah, like rogue, which typically has a lot of 1 drops, you're hugely favored if you get to play a 1 drop first.
You guys said at Blizzcon that there was a slight advantage in going first over second. Is this still holding true, and are there any matchups which vastly differ from the median? Eric: It's still true. Actually, I think for every class now there's a small advantage to going first at every level. Ben: It's about three percent better to go first over second. It's only a tiny bit better to go first at the lower levels of play. Eric: And that being said, are there some decks which are built around going second, and might have a small advantage for going second? Yeah, that's certainly the case, but the advantage for going second in those decks I would imagine is less than one percent.
You guys said at Blizzcon that there was a slight advantage in going first over second. Is this still holding true, and are there any matchups which vastly differ from the median? Eric: It's still true. Actually, I think for every class now there's a small advantage to going first at every level. Ben: It's about three percent better to go first over second. It's only a tiny bit better to go first at the lower levels of play. Eric: And that being said, are there some decks which are built around going second, and might have a small advantage for going second? Yeah, that's certainly the case, but the advantage for going second in those decks I would imagine is less than one percent.
I don't think the devs means the situation in arena. In arena the problem of going second is much worse because board control is vital in the first few turns. You lose the board you lose the game. Whoever go first and drops on curve will take the board and snowball much more easily. In constructed it's ok to miss a drop or two because you have some card draws and comeback mechanics in your deck, but not so much for most classes in arena. It's always a bigger problem in arena and I think the devs can do nothing significant despite Kripp mentioned this so many times already.
I personally have found it detrimental to go first against pirate warrior. If they have coin it's pretty much a t1 Muster for Battle and they don't run out of steam so fast
Yeah, it's not news, it has always been like this. It's really noticeable against aggro. If they open with a perfect 1,2,3, then it's almost impossible to win going second. It's one of the main flaws of this game. My stats here show this perfectly:
Paladin is, in my opinion and what my personal experience has shown me, the main example for this, as it has so many win more and buff cards that easily snowball if they already have board control (which is far easier going first) while they do very little if they are losing. But I have better win rate with every class (except warrior, probably due to not having played too much with it) going first, not just Paladin.
I was just looking at my heartharena stats, and noticed that I have a significantly higher winrate going first.
The sample size isn't huge, but given the massive difference in winrate I think it's statistically significant.
It's especially noticeable for when I play rogue, out of 71 games it's a 34 vs 76% win rate.
S39 Legend - Quest Rogue, S38 Legend - Murloc Paladin, S37 Legend - Miracle Rogue, S36 Top 200 Legend - Aggro Shaman, S35 - Finished Rank 51 Legend - Aggro Shaman, S34 Legend - Aggro Shaman
Kripparian (one of the top arena players in the world) made a video highlighting this recently. His Paladin and Warlock stats were off the charts in favor of going first. It's definitely a problem.
Nope.
S39 Legend - Quest Rogue, S38 Legend - Murloc Paladin, S37 Legend - Miracle Rogue, S36 Top 200 Legend - Aggro Shaman, S35 - Finished Rank 51 Legend - Aggro Shaman, S34 Legend - Aggro Shaman
The difficulty here is that it varies so widely depending on your class. This means there's no blanket cure that will fix the problem across the board without making some classes OP.
But it's important to note that no one really comes out ahead in the long run -- over time, you go first exactly as often as you go second. And while the win rate difference is statistically significant, it's not so large that there's any benefit to auto-conceding just because you lose the coin toss.
"Why, you never expected justice from a company, did you? They have neither a soul to lose nor a body to kick." -- Lady Saba Holland
There are definitely classes and decks where I prefer to go second. The Coin and the opportunity to see and mulligan four cards are worth it. But the statistics don't lie; there are more classes and decks, especially aggro, that fare better when going first.
Dependable loan sharks since 1960. We sink our teeth into every deal we make.
S39 Legend - Quest Rogue, S38 Legend - Murloc Paladin, S37 Legend - Miracle Rogue, S36 Top 200 Legend - Aggro Shaman, S35 - Finished Rank 51 Legend - Aggro Shaman, S34 Legend - Aggro Shaman
Massive difference in winrate? You are talking about fewer than 500 total games played. Nothing massive at all.
Interesting article regarding just this (from 2013):
http://2p.com/2723802_1/Some-Interesting-Data-for-Hearthstone-at-BlizzCon-2013-by-EdwardsLin.htm
I know the article is dated, but Blizz doesn't really release much of this type of data. I can't imagine much has changed in this regards.
Also (from 2014):
http://www.hearthpwn.com/news/296-developer-interview-with-eric-dodds-and-ben-brode
Game Design
You guys said at Blizzcon that there was a slight advantage in going first over second. Is this still holding true, and are there any matchups which vastly differ from the median?
Eric: It's still true. Actually, I think for every class now there's a small advantage to going first at every level.
Ben: It's about three percent better to go first over second. It's only a tiny bit better to go first at the lower levels of play.
Eric: And that being said, are there some decks which are built around going second, and might have a small advantage for going second? Yeah, that's certainly the case, but the advantage for going second in those decks I would imagine is less than one percent.
I personally have found it detrimental to go first against pirate warrior. If they have coin it's pretty much a t1 Muster for Battle and they don't run out of steam so fast
Yeah, it's not news, it has always been like this. It's really noticeable against aggro. If they open with a perfect 1,2,3, then it's almost impossible to win going second. It's one of the main flaws of this game. My stats here show this perfectly:
https://gyazo.com/21b576373078179b7c5c4e07d4520195
https://gyazo.com/4a88b6283857e2569cd3d5554cc77403
Paladin is, in my opinion and what my personal experience has shown me, the main example for this, as it has so many win more and buff cards that easily snowball if they already have board control (which is far easier going first) while they do very little if they are losing. But I have better win rate with every class (except warrior, probably due to not having played too much with it) going first, not just Paladin.