• 0

    posted a message on Should I buy the United in Stormwind mini-set?

    You should always buy the miniset for gold if you a casual or FTPlayer.

    Probably you've heard from streamers smth like 'better buy 20 packs' - well, it's a trap. There are very limited circumstances when it could work out well, like, already having full collection of current expansion along with 20+ packs hoarded from "end of month" ... But those are mostly applicable to aforementioned streamers.

    Nothing can beat 4 legendaries for 2k gold. They could be trash, but if you are still to open rest of legendaries at least this trash won't interfere.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on holy damage and frost damage

    Frost and fire quests do suck indeed.

    Yeah, I agree that those quests were created with Merc mode in mind, and Arcane/Holy/Nature can be completed really quickly there, but Fire and especially Frost are almost unavailable (GL triggering Tavish's trap) for an average Joe. So the only realistic way is to grind them in traditional HS.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Which nerf is more likely for pirate warrior quest? vote.
    Quote from jferrante831 >>

    my biggest issue with it is the random Mr. Smite that The Juggernaut gives them. just game winning RNG whenever that happens with 10-15 burst damage in a non combo deck.

     Huh, if only it was 10-15 burst. It can be like 20+ given 4+ attack weapon, random pirate from Jugg and Mr. Smite + Bloodsail Raider from hand.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 2

    posted a message on better use of gold?

    I think right now you are in a good spot to start/resume your Standard collection because it's the last expansion this year. But it's a lenghty process. And I wouldn't expect much from future 3 months.

    First of all I'd start hoarding gold and packs - Standard and class-specific. Guess "Year of the Phoenix" ones will give the same cards either this or next season so they can be opened safely.

    Next I would definitely buy future mini-set - it's 4 legendaries after all.

    Then I'd start farming Rewards Track like crazy, including achievements with experience rewards. And even if you are not planning to spend real money I would still consider purchasing a Tavern Pass, it has the best value for money.

    I'd have spent all of this gold right at the start of next season (and year), opened seasonal packs first and Standard next to catch up a bit on previous seasons. And then repeat allf of this again.

    My main concerns with Arena approach is that you don't really have time to play Standard after it if you can't afford playing HS all day long.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Legend First Time

    >And so far as I know, those figures applied to populations across all formats

    Also they were collected for previous ranking system, without threshold ranks. There are estimations that current ranking system results in 10x more legend players. I tend to agree with that. So now it's like 5% for a large player base - this is important.

    >It is also worth noting that in China, which is the most populous region for HS, there are considerably more legend players in wild than there are in standard. 

    The only source I've seen on this topic states there is an equality in numbers there. Other 3 regions have like 10:1 proportion. But again those numbers are all questionable because Blizzard doesn't share statistics.

    >But it doesn't prove that the number of players in wild legend is representative of the larger proportion of that formats base relative to standard in any way: that doesn't follow.

    And now goes an interesting part. Because it can lead to a research.

    Question 1: is it possible to reach legend with flat 50% chance to win (not to be confused with winrate)?

    Answer 1: Yes, it is. It can take quite some time until a streak happens. Still it's around 200 games from D5 to legend. Could be more, could be less. This abstract model can be easily verified with a simple computer program.

    Actually with patience even lower chances to win are feasible.

    Question 2: what will be the final ranks of 2 players if they only play ranked games with each other and have 50% chance to win?

    Answer 2: both of them will be legends.

    Question 3: what is the ratio of legends in 2-player scenario?

    Answer 3: 100%.

    2-people groups are actually the hardest to progress - one's wins are others' losses after all - but they are good for illustration. And still correct: extreme case example is where first player gets his 16 win streak first and his opponent stays at D5 without losing stars, then 2nd player get his 16 wins - voila, in 32 rigged games they are both legends.

    If there are more people then it is easier to get a big fraction of them to legends because losses are duluted in ever growing fraction of legends. So, given time all of them become legends. That's why seasons exist.

    So, the smaller the group the bigger is the fraction of legends there in a given amount of time.

    Reality is a bit more complex - some ppl stop playing seriously after reaching legend, some ppl don't have time to play that many games, and of course not everybody has a competitive deck to grind legend... But if we assume that's Wild community is a bit more dedicated than the Standard one - then again it should result in bigger fraction of legends there.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 0

    posted a message on Legend First Time
    Quote from Sevasmios >>
    at least 600,000 people are participating in the format in NA alone if Blizzards cited figures for the statistical percentage of players in legend is even remotely accurate

     This is an unsanctioned use of statistical energy.

    You extrapolate statistics valid for Standard mode to Wild. I'd say percentage of legends is higher in Wild at least by an order of magnitude, with Wild legend players at 2-3k rating having to play Diamond or even Platinum players. This means there is a way more opportunities to play positive-sum game in Wild in general - where players can get stars without making other player lose them (cuz they are legends already and don't care lol).

    Proof: https://youtu.be/ovvrC5SF-cY - here is an abomination of a Wild player (Ignite APM OTK mage) at rating ~1500 having to play vs Diamond I player.

    Currently in Standard one cannot get a Diamond opponent even residing at 20k legend.

    Last month - seemengly not a popular one - I could have been easily matched against low Diamond when playing at 15k legend.

    So: if your extrapolations are correct - and they are not - there are like 12-15 MILLIONS of standard players. Which is probably bit far from true. But even if not - well, Standard still vastly outnumbers Wild so it is not be considered seriously from a financial standpoint.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on What is the odds?

    Well, there is a 70% chance not to get a specific class per run:

    9/10 * 8/9 * 7/8 = 7/10

    So not getting one in 16 runs in a row looks like a 0.7^16 = 0,33%

    Or 1 in 300. Not a very low chance BTW but still a feat.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 2

    posted a message on Trying to Find a Specific Warlock Deck

    I think it was done with The Dark Portal and 2x Felosophy after that with the Tickatus being the only minion in the deck.

    Posted in: General Deck Building
  • -4

    posted a message on Winter Veil Returns, New Legendary Quest Chain, Honor Point Event Update & More

    They've shortened the event span. It finishes prematurely. Seems that Teh Alliance wins so if u r in da Horde u wont miss 2nd legendary regardless of your Honor grind and get it in Diamond in fact.

    Posted in: News
  • 0

    posted a message on Safe to Dust Now?
    Quote from RMD01 >>

    Don't mass disenchant, just manually disenchant duplicates you don't expect to get nerfed

    And get screwed up by Blizzard who know better.

    So no, never disenchant unless nerfs are active or forced to.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • -3

    posted a message on Hottest Decks for Fractured in Alterac Valley - Community Favorites - Standard and Wild!

    I don't see them at bronze or platinum 5. Where should I look for them?

    And what deck do u play? The game seems to tailor your opponents to it. So it won't give you a "too good" of a matchup - the game should be hard for one, you know.

    Posted in: News
  • 0

    posted a message on Miracle Ramp Druid

    Hey, it's bronze rank after all! There are many dumb netdecks which are somehow extremely effective at carelessly punching your face to death.

    Some decks become much more effective past bronze ranks. I can't explain why this happens.

    Posted in: Miracle Ramp Druid
  • 0

    posted a message on Quest Control lock 67% Wr to Rank D2

    Does it really need to run rods? If this deck doesn't rush OwlTK, and with the amount of Vipers in the meta, shouldn't they be replaced with smth more relevant?

    Posted in: Quest Control lock 67% Wr to Rank D2
  • 0

    posted a message on How to nerf quests
    Quote from Suikiele >>
    little pond

    This is a precise description of Wild. Not only it is very little - only a fraction of Standard, and I suppose negligible near to BG - it is also very rotten and smells badly. Most whine I read here is from Wild players - and they even don't find it necessary to mention the mode, as if it was natural for someone to play Wild. Very frustating and confusing.

    Nope. Wild is dead ant is meant to be dead. Sure, it has a zombie ladder, same as a Classic mode, but if anyone cared about Wild there would have been a tournament or two per year. But as we know nobody cares about Standard tournaments - and never cared to begin with - so...

    It leads me to conclusion that the sole purpose of Wild players is to whine in their masochistic ecstase about things that will never be "fixed". Surely this mode should have been renamed to Whild years ago.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Worst Pack Opening Since 2014...

    Wel it is still not on the front page but there is a new cost-effective bundle in the store - 2 legendaries and 10 Alterac + 10 Standard packs. For $20 I guess.

    This is an offer I mentioned earlier: the biggest buck for money is small preorder (2L + 60 packs) + Tavern Pass + Post-release bundle (2L + 10 packs + 10 other packs) - it costs the same as a large preorder but fills one's Legendary collection a bit more.

    Opening results: me and my partner got 4 legendaries from 40 packs! In fact, she got all 4 of them (from 20 packs) - that's everything you should know about statistics.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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