Since GVG launched i feel that drop rate from packs got nerfed to the ground, since january ive played everyday bought a 50$ bundle, i dont buy packs with gold only arena and normally i won around 4 wins sometimes more sometimes less, i've only opened 2 legendary (a second dr boom, and a second troggzor crafted both at the beggining of expansion) and my last 14 packs have been 40 dust packs i am the only one who feels the nerf on the packs?
I´m pretty sure there will be guys saying that it didn´t change. but it most certainly has. First it didn´t bother me (i´ve got all the important legendaries for all classes) but if that is the direction this game is heading (milking the cow), i ´ll stop spending money on this game. It´s not the only free2start-game i play and blizzard is by far the customer-unfriendliest company in that regard. You only need to look at the preorder-bonus: a friggn card back. Compare this to other free2start preorder bonus´ and you know what i´m talking about. They are lucky this game provides me that much fun, that i was willing to pay money on it but seeing how friends of mine are struggling in order to get their decks and hearthstone experience going, i begin to notice how greedy blizzard really is.
Why should you get freebies? If you want to play Magic the Gathering you can't just walk into Walmart and leave with a free starter kit, why should this be any different? You're lucky you get to play for free at all.
Strange, it didn't happen to me, 6 goldens (a golden legendary), 2 legendaries in 2 weeks, and in those 2 days I've got 2 golden commons, a rare and an epic in each pack, it's probably just terrible bummer
Well, I'm sorry but you are wrong. There has been no change to drop rate. You have my condolences that your packs have been lower than average value recently, but the game's values have not changed.
You are a valued player and your opinions matter, but no person's opinions hold power over facts.
Read my post god damn it. I spent lots (!) of money on this game and i did it happily. But two simple things:
If they change the drop rate, which i think they did and i´m thinking that you don´t get your money´s worth now i should be allowed to say so without getting a stupid comment like "You're lucky you get to play for free at all." Makes me wonder why you feel so butthurt about it.
Secondly, blizzard calls this free2play, not me. And they are the ones that are building payment walls for new and old players as their business concept. one should be able to complain about their drop rate. As simple as that.
If you are not willing to discuss, just stay out of this thread or provide any input. So far you respones were:
"No, you are wrong" "Be happy that is free to play after all"
Very constructive!
They haven't changed the drop rates. Stop being an asshole. You asked a question and you got your answer. Also the "freebies" comment was in regards to your new friends. You won't get every great card instantly just because you buy packs, but it will take even longer if you don't spend.
With consistent arena and and consistent playing in general, even from the get-go a consistent collection is fairly easy to get. Plenty of pros right now haven't spent a cent on the game.
They didn't change the drop rate. They never have, statistically speaking they likely never will. People go on long-term bad luck streaks all the time, and every time they do someone makes one of these threads. It's very nonconstructive to pander to incorrect ideas born of no empirical evidence and unexaminable anecdotes.
These aren't "payment walls". These are just different offers for content. The game is very playable without a full-fledged collection, and the more ways to spice up said collection the merrier. You can spend nothing on hearthstone, you can spend just a little, you can spend some every now and again, or you can spend a lot. Either way you do it, you're getting quality content for your money and the game is incredibly fun to boot. That's an incredibly healthy free to play style. Much economic analysis has been done on this matter, and there's more than a few sources explaining why hearthstone's (and now Heroes's) models are so appealing.
On top of all that, blizzard is also aware that there is a lot of fun content in the game that takes a while to access, and they are currently looking for ways to alleviate that. It's not their highest priority, as content production, server management, tournament management and options, the list goes on (team 5's not all that big, fun facts!) are slightly larger on the list than offering more options in an environment that, if you can arena, or have a friend who can help you arena, you bypass all these problems anyway.
They make the preorder bonuses superfluous because doing otherwise would be incredibly stupid. They added golden mekkatorque and golden etc as bonuses for support/blizzcon, but that already got tons of upset comments from people who wanted completely golden decks, or people who think legendaries are inherently overpowered. If they sold packs with the adventure, it puts away the focus of the adventure. Preorder content is a scary thing to implement, and adding a thematic skin (as they've done in starcraft and warcraft countless times) is a very safe, understandable decision. The other reason they offer this preorder is because of the problem they had with Naxxramas, where everyone would try to order at the same time. The results were catastrophic, and just offering the option to preorder is a very good option for the many players who know they want all the hearthstone content they can get, or who are just specifically excited for BRM. It also gets the hype out there, which they've managed to thoroughly maintain with spoilers and much faster release dates.
Unfamiliarity and a lack of logical rigor should not be responded to with either rude disregards nor with acceptance. They are to be met with information and logical rigor, and I hope I've provided that.
The fact is you haven't opened nearly enough packs to have your actual drop % converge with what the actual drop rarity is with a high confidence level. The standard deviations are very high with such low frequencies.
But if you are basing your accusations on "feelings" I guess that means nothing to you.
It's possible Blizzard changed it behind the scenes, no one can really prove whether or not they have. But the number of packs you open has nothing to do with what you get. If you have a bad luck streak you're not due for a good pack soon, each pack is it's own individual chance of getting good / bad cards.
So there's about an (estimated) 6.33% chance of getting a legendary card. That chance doesn't increase with more packs, so it's totally possible to go 14, or even 40 packs without getting one.
I'm on the other end of the spectrum, just opened a legendary, multiple epics I didn't craft yet (one was a golden Ancient of Lore) just this week. It feels like Blizzard increased the drop rate. But I'm sure they wouldn't do that :)
I think the problem is there have been a number of very whiny posts about the drop rate in the past and an awful lot of butthurt. You made you point well and you are completely entitled to question something you have a problem with.
I do not believe the drop rate has changed at all based on a sample size of no knowledge whatsoever. There are some very clever people, probably locked in a basement away from sunlight, that have calculated the percentages to give out rewards in order to encourage people to continue playing. Sometimes you just get unlucky and it can feel longer/more unfair when you get average packs with unexciting cards.
On a side note I loved the EA vs. Blizzard comment on page 1.
The burden of proof is on the people who are claiming that the drop rate got changed behind all our backs without anyone telling us. Saying "well where's your proof that it DIDN'T change" is bullshit. People have accumulated stats on the drop rate in the past, and if you want to suggest that it changed, you need to provide stats to back that point up, not just go "well you don't have up-to-this-very-moment stats either so it's my word against yours!" That's not how this shit works. The burden of proof is on the people making the weird conspiratorial accusation, not on the people saying that things probably are still the way they've been observed to be throughout the game's history.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I hate Hearthstone. This game is a joke. Let's go play a real game." - Xixo on me beating him with his own face hunter list
If you had started out saying "I think the drop rate might have changed," you might have gotten less strident replies. But you started with "I´m pretty sure there will be guys saying that it didn´t change. but it most certainly has," which is telling everyone else that they're wrong and you're right, based on nothing more than your personal experience. With an opener like that, you shouldn't be surprised that people get gruff.
The burden of proof is on the people who are claiming that the drop rate got changed behind all our backs without anyone telling us. Saying "well where's your proof that it DIDN'T change" is bullshit. People have accumulated stats on the drop rate in the past, and if you want to suggest that it changed, you need to provide stats to back that point up, not just go "well you don't have up-to-this-very-moment stats either so it's my word against yours!" That's not how this shit works. The burden of proof is on the people making the weird conspiratorial accusation, not on the people saying that things probably are still the way they've been observed to be throughout the game's history.
What a twisted logic. I don´t need to proof anything to you. And only because my point of view differs from yours doesnt make it conspiratorial. Just cut the personal insults.
I´m trying to be open minded here. As i stated serveral times now, i´m willing to change my point of view, sth that you are obviously not capable of. So from now on, spare your time. I won´t read you anymore.
@Duranoar: Thx for the links. I will look into them. Especially the 250 and 420 pack samples sizes are great. That is something i can work with. Appreciate it.
Well, maybe it was a long bad card opening run in addition with the crappy preorderbonus which lead me to the conclusion they might have changed the drop rate. I´m not fully convinced yet but maybe i will be after reading through your links.
I didn't insult you personally at all. I insulted the argument you're making, which is a completely different thing. As for the idea that somehow I'm some kind of fundamentalist drop-rate-er who would never change their view, I literally stated in my post the conditions under which I'd change my point of view, namely that you and/or the people who agree with you present evidence in support of your point. I also stated in my post the reason I hold my view, which is that there are statistics to show what the drop rates are and as of yet no one on your side of the argument has presented any statistics to suggest that they've changed.
What makes it conspiratorial isn't that you disagree with me, it's that you're suggesting that blizzard has decided to change the game in a way that doesn't benefit players at all without telling anyone and without any evidence that that's the case. Again, I feel the need to re-iterate that I would change my viewpoint if there were evidence to suggest that the drop rates had, in fact, changed beyond "I think it changed because I feel like I'm getting bad packs now"
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I hate Hearthstone. This game is a joke. Let's go play a real game." - Xixo on me beating him with his own face hunter list
The burden of proof is on the people who are claiming that the drop rate got changed behind all our backs without anyone telling us. Saying "well where's your proof that it DIDN'T change" is bullshit. People have accumulated stats on the drop rate in the past, and if you want to suggest that it changed, you need to provide stats to back that point up, not just go "well you don't have up-to-this-very-moment stats either so it's my word against yours!" That's not how this shit works. The burden of proof is on the people making the weird conspiratorial accusation, not on the people saying that things probably are still the way they've been observed to be throughout the game's history.
What a twisted logic. I don´t need to proof anything to you. And only because my point of view differs from yours doesnt make it conspiratorial. Just cut the personal insults.
I´m trying to be open minded here. As i stated serveral times now, i´m willing to change my point of view, sth that you are obviously not capable of. So from now on, spare your time. I won´t read you anymore.
@Duranoar: Thx for the links. I will look into them. Especially the 250 and 420 pack samples sizes are great. That is something i can work with. Appreciate it.
Well, maybe it was a long bad card opening run in addition with the crappy preorderbonus which lead me to the conclusion they might have changed the drop rate. I´m not fully convinced yet but maybe i will be after reading through your links.
What your facing is a backlash from a very old topic. Sad to say, this statement you made has been made for over a year now. It's very very VERY common for someone to come in after a bad set of packs then declare that Blizzard has changed the system. There's 10+ pages of constant back and forth about how everyone is wrong and being Blizzard Fan Boys and we're all being screwed and "who cares what Amaz opened?" and so on and so on. The community has been worn down in doing a normal defense and has turned to biting really. Myself I've gotten that way regarding the Coin: another hot issue.
Though yes, burden of proof is on the one making the declaration. Thus why everyone is demanding evidence from you about the matter. Especially since you started off on someone else's topic and flat out said that everyone was wrong without any evidence.
As the links show though, this has been looked over many many times. I don't even think Blizzard made an official announcement about the drop rates. According to our own research:
1. THe drop rates are the same.
2. the number of common/rares are smaller in ration so, even accounting for the smaller size, you'll start getting duplicates faster than in Classic. (This won't affect the chance of getting legendaries, but it will mark the point when you go fro mgetting 'new' cards' to getting repeats.
3. The only counterevidence to #1 is people with VERY small samples (a few packs) and, to be blunt, conspiracies.
4. I'll be blunt here too. We're VERY tired of going over a topic talked about in many many MANY threads by people who swear they are right and everyone else is wrong.
Note that the attitude didn't help. The OP came in with a question and a curiosity explaining why he felt the way he did. Thus he got reasonable answers and statments of understanding. You come in with an antagonistic tone. So you get the bit.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
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Since GVG launched i feel that drop rate from packs got nerfed to the ground, since january ive played everyday bought a 50$ bundle, i dont buy packs with gold only arena and normally i won around 4 wins sometimes more sometimes less, i've only opened 2 legendary (a second dr boom, and a second troggzor crafted both at the beggining of expansion) and my last 14 packs have been 40 dust packs i am the only one who feels the nerf on the packs?
yea i felt like i got alot less legendaries after gvg. but then again my RNG is actually terrible so it could be coincidence.
it still only took me like 100$ to get everything useful in gvg tho which i guess is alright
There has been no nerf, we would know if there was one. You're just very unlucky.
Just bad luck. Last night I got Sneed's, a golden epic and 2 rares from a single pack. You win some and you lose some.
Why should you get freebies? If you want to play Magic the Gathering you can't just walk into Walmart and leave with a free starter kit, why should this be any different? You're lucky you get to play for free at all.
The rarity distribution is the same as it was in both GvG and classic. Nothing changed.
Strange, it didn't happen to me, 6 goldens (a golden legendary), 2 legendaries in 2 weeks, and in those 2 days I've got 2 golden commons, a rare and an epic in each pack, it's probably just terrible bummer
mfw his Yogg steals my win
Well, I'm sorry but you are wrong. There has been no change to drop rate. You have my condolences that your packs have been lower than average value recently, but the game's values have not changed.
You are a valued player and your opinions matter, but no person's opinions hold power over facts.
They haven't changed the drop rates. Stop being an asshole. You asked a question and you got your answer. Also the "freebies" comment was in regards to your new friends. You won't get every great card instantly just because you buy packs, but it will take even longer if you don't spend.
ITT: People who don't understand variance and sample size.
With consistent arena and and consistent playing in general, even from the get-go a consistent collection is fairly easy to get. Plenty of pros right now haven't spent a cent on the game.
They didn't change the drop rate. They never have, statistically speaking they likely never will. People go on long-term bad luck streaks all the time, and every time they do someone makes one of these threads. It's very nonconstructive to pander to incorrect ideas born of no empirical evidence and unexaminable anecdotes.
These aren't "payment walls". These are just different offers for content. The game is very playable without a full-fledged collection, and the more ways to spice up said collection the merrier. You can spend nothing on hearthstone, you can spend just a little, you can spend some every now and again, or you can spend a lot. Either way you do it, you're getting quality content for your money and the game is incredibly fun to boot. That's an incredibly healthy free to play style. Much economic analysis has been done on this matter, and there's more than a few sources explaining why hearthstone's (and now Heroes's) models are so appealing.
On top of all that, blizzard is also aware that there is a lot of fun content in the game that takes a while to access, and they are currently looking for ways to alleviate that. It's not their highest priority, as content production, server management, tournament management and options, the list goes on (team 5's not all that big, fun facts!) are slightly larger on the list than offering more options in an environment that, if you can arena, or have a friend who can help you arena, you bypass all these problems anyway.
They make the preorder bonuses superfluous because doing otherwise would be incredibly stupid. They added golden mekkatorque and golden etc as bonuses for support/blizzcon, but that already got tons of upset comments from people who wanted completely golden decks, or people who think legendaries are inherently overpowered. If they sold packs with the adventure, it puts away the focus of the adventure. Preorder content is a scary thing to implement, and adding a thematic skin (as they've done in starcraft and warcraft countless times) is a very safe, understandable decision. The other reason they offer this preorder is because of the problem they had with Naxxramas, where everyone would try to order at the same time. The results were catastrophic, and just offering the option to preorder is a very good option for the many players who know they want all the hearthstone content they can get, or who are just specifically excited for BRM. It also gets the hype out there, which they've managed to thoroughly maintain with spoilers and much faster release dates.
Unfamiliarity and a lack of logical rigor should not be responded to with either rude disregards nor with acceptance. They are to be met with information and logical rigor, and I hope I've provided that.
Nothings changed.
The fact is you haven't opened nearly enough packs to have your actual drop % converge with what the actual drop rarity is with a high confidence level. The standard deviations are very high with such low frequencies.
But if you are basing your accusations on "feelings" I guess that means nothing to you.
http://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/2ornhx/420_packs_opened_amaz_here_are_the_stats/
http://www.liquidhearth.com/forum/hearthstone/474637-pack-opening-stats
http://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-discussion/24773-statistics-on-96-gvg-packs
https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/2zuu3q/stats_on_250_gvg_packs_opened/
There. Statistics. Much better then your guts.
It's possible Blizzard changed it behind the scenes, no one can really prove whether or not they have. But the number of packs you open has nothing to do with what you get. If you have a bad luck streak you're not due for a good pack soon, each pack is it's own individual chance of getting good / bad cards.
So there's about an (estimated) 6.33% chance of getting a legendary card. That chance doesn't increase with more packs, so it's totally possible to go 14, or even 40 packs without getting one.
I'm on the other end of the spectrum, just opened a legendary, multiple epics I didn't craft yet (one was a golden Ancient of Lore) just this week. It feels like Blizzard increased the drop rate. But I'm sure they wouldn't do that :)
I think the problem is there have been a number of very whiny posts about the drop rate in the past and an awful lot of butthurt. You made you point well and you are completely entitled to question something you have a problem with.
I do not believe the drop rate has changed at all based on a sample size of no knowledge whatsoever. There are some very clever people, probably locked in a basement away from sunlight, that have calculated the percentages to give out rewards in order to encourage people to continue playing. Sometimes you just get unlucky and it can feel longer/more unfair when you get average packs with unexciting cards.
On a side note I loved the EA vs. Blizzard comment on page 1.
The burden of proof is on the people who are claiming that the drop rate got changed behind all our backs without anyone telling us. Saying "well where's your proof that it DIDN'T change" is bullshit. People have accumulated stats on the drop rate in the past, and if you want to suggest that it changed, you need to provide stats to back that point up, not just go "well you don't have up-to-this-very-moment stats either so it's my word against yours!" That's not how this shit works. The burden of proof is on the people making the weird conspiratorial accusation, not on the people saying that things probably are still the way they've been observed to be throughout the game's history.
"I hate Hearthstone. This game is a joke. Let's go play a real game." - Xixo on me beating him with his own face hunter list
If you had started out saying "I think the drop rate might have changed," you might have gotten less strident replies. But you started with "I´m pretty sure there will be guys saying that it didn´t change. but it most certainly has," which is telling everyone else that they're wrong and you're right, based on nothing more than your personal experience. With an opener like that, you shouldn't be surprised that people get gruff.
I didn't insult you personally at all. I insulted the argument you're making, which is a completely different thing. As for the idea that somehow I'm some kind of fundamentalist drop-rate-er who would never change their view, I literally stated in my post the conditions under which I'd change my point of view, namely that you and/or the people who agree with you present evidence in support of your point. I also stated in my post the reason I hold my view, which is that there are statistics to show what the drop rates are and as of yet no one on your side of the argument has presented any statistics to suggest that they've changed.
What makes it conspiratorial isn't that you disagree with me, it's that you're suggesting that blizzard has decided to change the game in a way that doesn't benefit players at all without telling anyone and without any evidence that that's the case. Again, I feel the need to re-iterate that I would change my viewpoint if there were evidence to suggest that the drop rates had, in fact, changed beyond "I think it changed because I feel like I'm getting bad packs now"
"I hate Hearthstone. This game is a joke. Let's go play a real game." - Xixo on me beating him with his own face hunter list
What your facing is a backlash from a very old topic. Sad to say, this statement you made has been made for over a year now. It's very very VERY common for someone to come in after a bad set of packs then declare that Blizzard has changed the system. There's 10+ pages of constant back and forth about how everyone is wrong and being Blizzard Fan Boys and we're all being screwed and "who cares what Amaz opened?" and so on and so on. The community has been worn down in doing a normal defense and has turned to biting really. Myself I've gotten that way regarding the Coin: another hot issue.
Though yes, burden of proof is on the one making the declaration. Thus why everyone is demanding evidence from you about the matter. Especially since you started off on someone else's topic and flat out said that everyone was wrong without any evidence.
As the links show though, this has been looked over many many times. I don't even think Blizzard made an official announcement about the drop rates. According to our own research:
1. THe drop rates are the same.
2. the number of common/rares are smaller in ration so, even accounting for the smaller size, you'll start getting duplicates faster than in Classic. (This won't affect the chance of getting legendaries, but it will mark the point when you go fro mgetting 'new' cards' to getting repeats.
3. The only counterevidence to #1 is people with VERY small samples (a few packs) and, to be blunt, conspiracies.
4. I'll be blunt here too. We're VERY tired of going over a topic talked about in many many MANY threads by people who swear they are right and everyone else is wrong.
Note that the attitude didn't help. The OP came in with a question and a curiosity explaining why he felt the way he did. Thus he got reasonable answers and statments of understanding. You come in with an antagonistic tone. So you get the bit.
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.