Greetings, good fellows. here's a piggy roll to start off :
('o'))~ ~((.o.) ('o'))~
now that we got that out of the way, let's talk. I wish to know how deep do you think the matchmaking hole goes. This is a little exercise in paranoia, skepticism, realism and statistical accuracy. I'll make some statements and observations below, you see if you agree or not. this is not a topic where I'm claiming anything non-factual, this is about opinions and experiences.
it is no hidden information that Blizzard games use a rigged matchmaking system to give everyone an easier chance to reach 50% winrate ; for what is a more balanced experience but to win a game and give a win to someone else, so we're all a bunch of content pigglets? a player that comes into a game only to experience losses is not a player that will stay around, so it is in the company's interest to keep us around.
an easy way to see this philosophy at work is in games like Heroes of the Storm, where you will be rewarded or punished depending if you're on a long win or loss streak. If you lost a dozen games in a row, suddenly you'll be awarded with weak opponents and an incredibly knowledgeable and superior skilled team in a row. at the same time, when people are on a great win streak they're basically paranoid for a good reason - the doom of the lose streak is hovering above, where they'll be given teams that simply isn't on the same level as the opponents. there's a lot of systems going on in HOTS to attempt to make it fair, but the "keep you at 50% winrate to make everyone a content pigglet" with the lose/win streaks is well documented and should be accepted as fact by now. to beat this system, you must display exceptional skill to 'carry' games.
in Hearthstone we see a similar thing. Hearthstone is still a massively popular game where there should basically always be someone of equal level of skill/experience to fight you... yet sometimes someone like me who's been around since the release gets matched up with someone who's completely new and lacking cards, and their deck and experience cannot match mine. Hearthstone is basically throwing me some meat to keep me around, I guess, and it feels bad for both of us.
aside from this brute matchmaking (new vs veteran player recovering from loss) there's some curiosities that happen with matching mulligans (full keep/mulligan vs full keep/mulligan) and drawing the best winrate card against the opponent, but that would be extremely difficult to put in statistics and mulliganing is still a player decision choice, so am not gonna think much on that.
have you experienced matching and losing consistently to a particular deck (let's say some combo/control deck), taking a counter deck (like Quest Rogue) to the ladder, only to not encounter that deck anymore?
do you ever have a day when you always draw your amazing turn 1,2,3 in your opening hand and jumping your winrate like +10-0 but then suddenly can't perform that winstreak again and your deck starts to perform averagely/below average?
that's about all I have to say on this topic. give some thought and think about your average experience. do you think you've been cheated by the system just so you or someone else wins? I gave a Salt Thread option on top for all the dummies who can't read, that one is for you. the system has always been rigged to a degree, my question is - how rigged do you think it is? here's some explanation on the options given above ;
Win/Loss balancing - win or lose enough games in a row and the system will accommodate you with harder/easier opponents based on their own statistics. to escape this, one must win with superior skill and play more matches to break out of 50%.
Class balancing - matching based on cards and classes that show up in your deck ; if Blizz's statistics show that you lose to Druid but win against Priest with your Warlock, it may use that for your matchmaking.
Winrate cards balancing - certain cards win matches or boost the winrate chance by a massive percentage. Some days you always draw your Shudderwock or Jaina, some days they're always at the bottom of your deck.
Mulligan balancing - both players get a similar situation with starting hands. this would be linked to mulligan rate/chance per card.
Draw balancing - win or lose a game by the draw of specific cards that statistically bring high winrate in these matchups.
TLDR :
how rigged do you think the game is in setting up your game's experience?
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
''He traded sands for skins, skins for gold, gold for life. In the end, he traded life for sand.''
I don't know how much the matchmaking is rigged, but I see that famous streamers get almost always awesome matchup, starting hands, top decks and rng effects in their favor, and this is a fact.
They just try to match players with similar rank and similar MMR for legend players. That is complicated enough, they still get big rank-differences at low hours and high ranks early in the season. The rank system of HS is a MMR system in its own right. When you get matched vs better players as you rank up, everybody will drift towards a 50% winrate. It is not that weirs.
Why would they get longer queue times by taking stupid stuff like streaks, classes, decks and screwing YOU over into consideration? Makes no sense.
Balancing a 5v5 like in Hots is also a different ballgame. They have had big headaches about compromising between queue times and fair matches.
I don't know how much the matchmaking is rigged, but I see that famous streamers get almost always awesome matchup, starting hands, top decks and rng effects in their favor, and this is a fact.
I saw this post last week, but didn’t have time to respond to it. I’ll do that now: when you go into a game, the only variable that affects who your opponent will be is your skill rating.
Matchmaking works as follows:
We use a formula to assess player skill. After every game, the formula looks at if you won or lost and uses your current rating, your opponent’s rating, and your rating history to generate your new rating. We call this rating MMR for short. In casual and at Legend rank, we pair players with similar MMRs. In Ranked below legend, we pair people with similar star ranks instead of similar MMRs. Your rating is the only input that the matchmaker receives. It doesn’t know what deck you’re playing, what deck you just played with or against, or anything else, except for your rating.
When you press ‘play’ you enter a queue for your chosen game mode. The matchmaker looks at your MMR and compares it to the MMR of everyone else in the queue. If it finds someone else with the same MMR as you, it pairs you into a game. If it doesn’t, it will wait a few seconds and look again. The second time, it doesn’t look just for someone with your MMR; it will also look for someone with an MMR that’s almost the same as yours. If it still doesn’t find a match, it waits another few seconds and looks again. The bound for what MMRs are considered a good match keep widening the longer you’re in the queue; this is to ensure that you don’t have to wait too long to play. Usually a match is found so quickly that the widening bounds never really matter. After the game, your rating is updated, and the process is repeated the next time you queue up.
I realize some won't accept this and are convinced the game is rigged. I'll listen if an analysis of 100K+ matchups by a statistics collection site by unbiased competent people show there is statistically significant matchup bias. Humans (including you and including me) are too susceptible to confirmation bias.
I saw this post last week, but didn’t have time to respond to it. I’ll do that now: when you go into a game, the only variable that affects who your opponent will be is your skill rating.
Matchmaking works as follows:
We use a formula to assess player skill. After every game, the formula looks at if you won or lost and uses your current rating, your opponent’s rating, and your rating history to generate your new rating. We call this rating MMR for short. In casual and at Legend rank, we pair players with similar MMRs. In Ranked below legend, we pair people with similar star ranks instead of similar MMRs. Your rating is the only input that the matchmaker receives. It doesn’t know what deck you’re playing, what deck you just played with or against, or anything else, except for your rating.
When you press ‘play’ you enter a queue for your chosen game mode. The matchmaker looks at your MMR and compares it to the MMR of everyone else in the queue. If it finds someone else with the same MMR as you, it pairs you into a game. If it doesn’t, it will wait a few seconds and look again. The second time, it doesn’t look just for someone with your MMR; it will also look for someone with an MMR that’s almost the same as yours. If it still doesn’t find a match, it waits another few seconds and looks again. The bound for what MMRs are considered a good match keep widening the longer you’re in the queue; this is to ensure that you don’t have to wait too long to play. Usually a match is found so quickly that the widening bounds never really matter. After the game, your rating is updated, and the process is repeated the next time you queue up.
I realize some won't accept this and are convinced the game is rigged. I'll listen if an analysis of 100K+ matchups by a statistics collection site by unbiased competent people show there is statistically significant matchup bias. Humans (including you and including me) are too susceptible to confirmation bias.
oh! that's a very interesting post, thank you for bringing it up. I tried digging up matchmaking topics but all I was suggested were salt threads. it's very odd how strict and clear it is in a game where they don't want to release game rules and pack statistics. even though I'm not that paranoid about the MM in Hearthstone, it's hard to trust this statement when even the MMR isn't visible to us. my average opponent sports a legend cardback, but every now and then I get a punching bag with nothing. what's going on there, did the search comb the planet that thoroughly and found nothing? I need to see our MMRs or MMR decay rate for this.
I don't know how much the matchmaking is rigged, but I see that famous streamers get almost always awesome matchup, starting hands, top decks and rng effects in their favor, and this is a fact.
It is not a fact.
that's so wonderfully paranoid, I love it!
also loving the salt thread votes, I knew I didn't make a mistake adding that! please keep in mind I'm not trying to convince you of anything ; I want to know what you think is happening in the system.
Golden cards weigh more than non-golden cards but that's due to the materials used so of course they will always find themselves at the bottom of your deck.
oh! that's a very interesting post, thank you for bringing it up. I tried digging up matchmaking topics but all I was suggested were salt threads. it's very odd how strict and clear it is in a game where they don't want to release game rules and pack statistics. even though I'm not that paranoid about the MM in Hearthstone, it's hard to trust this statement when even the MMR isn't visible to us. my average opponent sports a legend cardback, but every now and then I get a punching bag with nothing. what's going on there, did the search comb the planet that thoroughly and found nothing? I need to see our MMRs or MMR decay rate for this.
You can see your MMR in ladder. It's your rank + stars, or legend rank.
I do understand how the game can feel sometimes though. You get wrecked for games in a row by deck A so you switch to deck B and then queue up against deck C which is favored against B. But that stands out in your mind because emotion is involved. If you look at how many games you've played that's bound to happen sometimes especially when the meta is pretty polarized. As of course you don't know when you face an opponent who is currently experiencing the same kind of negative trend.
I thought that too until i switched to aggro. Then u find out that if u dont give enough time for ur opponent to play his good cards he cant win. Facing control? Well thats normal since many play it to stop the majority of aggro opponent's so thats not rigged. I dont complain ehrn i face aggro with my odd warrior nor do i complain to face hunter with my odd warrior and l9se on turn 6 when they play Dk rexxar. If 50% of players run hunter what fo i expect?
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
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Greetings, good fellows. here's a piggy roll to start off :
('o'))~ ~((.o.) ('o'))~
now that we got that out of the way, let's talk. I wish to know how deep do you think the matchmaking hole goes. This is a little exercise in paranoia, skepticism, realism and statistical accuracy. I'll make some statements and observations below, you see if you agree or not. this is not a topic where I'm claiming anything non-factual, this is about opinions and experiences.
it is no hidden information that Blizzard games use a rigged matchmaking system to give everyone an easier chance to reach 50% winrate ; for what is a more balanced experience but to win a game and give a win to someone else, so we're all a bunch of content pigglets? a player that comes into a game only to experience losses is not a player that will stay around, so it is in the company's interest to keep us around.
an easy way to see this philosophy at work is in games like Heroes of the Storm, where you will be rewarded or punished depending if you're on a long win or loss streak. If you lost a dozen games in a row, suddenly you'll be awarded with weak opponents and an incredibly knowledgeable and superior skilled team in a row. at the same time, when people are on a great win streak they're basically paranoid for a good reason - the doom of the lose streak is hovering above, where they'll be given teams that simply isn't on the same level as the opponents. there's a lot of systems going on in HOTS to attempt to make it fair, but the "keep you at 50% winrate to make everyone a content pigglet" with the lose/win streaks is well documented and should be accepted as fact by now. to beat this system, you must display exceptional skill to 'carry' games.
in Hearthstone we see a similar thing. Hearthstone is still a massively popular game where there should basically always be someone of equal level of skill/experience to fight you... yet sometimes someone like me who's been around since the release gets matched up with someone who's completely new and lacking cards, and their deck and experience cannot match mine. Hearthstone is basically throwing me some meat to keep me around, I guess, and it feels bad for both of us.
aside from this brute matchmaking (new vs veteran player recovering from loss) there's some curiosities that happen with matching mulligans (full keep/mulligan vs full keep/mulligan) and drawing the best winrate card against the opponent, but that would be extremely difficult to put in statistics and mulliganing is still a player decision choice, so am not gonna think much on that.
have you experienced matching and losing consistently to a particular deck (let's say some combo/control deck), taking a counter deck (like Quest Rogue) to the ladder, only to not encounter that deck anymore?
do you ever have a day when you always draw your amazing turn 1,2,3 in your opening hand and jumping your winrate like +10-0 but then suddenly can't perform that winstreak again and your deck starts to perform averagely/below average?
that's about all I have to say on this topic. give some thought and think about your average experience. do you think you've been cheated by the system just so you or someone else wins? I gave a Salt Thread option on top for all the dummies who can't read, that one is for you. the system has always been rigged to a degree, my question is - how rigged do you think it is? here's some explanation on the options given above ;
Win/Loss balancing - win or lose enough games in a row and the system will accommodate you with harder/easier opponents based on their own statistics. to escape this, one must win with superior skill and play more matches to break out of 50%.
Class balancing - matching based on cards and classes that show up in your deck ; if Blizz's statistics show that you lose to Druid but win against Priest with your Warlock, it may use that for your matchmaking.
Winrate cards balancing - certain cards win matches or boost the winrate chance by a massive percentage. Some days you always draw your Shudderwock or Jaina, some days they're always at the bottom of your deck.
Mulligan balancing - both players get a similar situation with starting hands. this would be linked to mulligan rate/chance per card.
Draw balancing - win or lose a game by the draw of specific cards that statistically bring high winrate in these matchups.
TLDR :
how rigged do you think the game is in setting up your game's experience?
''He traded sands for skins, skins for gold, gold for life. In the end, he traded life for sand.''
(.o.))~ ~(('o') (.o.))~
Zero percent rigged.
All I'd be glad to have is the algorithm they use to create the matchmaking system. That would definitely shut down every complaint about this topic
I don't know how much the matchmaking is rigged, but I see that famous streamers get almost always awesome matchup, starting hands, top decks and rng effects in their favor, and this is a fact.
They just try to match players with similar rank and similar MMR for legend players. That is complicated enough, they still get big rank-differences at low hours and high ranks early in the season. The rank system of HS is a MMR system in its own right. When you get matched vs better players as you rank up, everybody will drift towards a 50% winrate. It is not that weirs.
Why would they get longer queue times by taking stupid stuff like streaks, classes, decks and screwing YOU over into consideration? Makes no sense.
Balancing a 5v5 like in Hots is also a different ballgame. They have had big headaches about compromising between queue times and fair matches.
/thread.
Editor of the Heartpwn Legendary Crafting Guide:
https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/card-discussion/205920-legendary-tier-list-crafting-guide
It is not a fact.
Not rigged. Based on MMR and widens scope if queue is taking a long time. Basic.
From https://www.hearthstonetopdecks.com/matchmaking-works-tyrandespecial-promotions-max-mccall-yong-woo/
(the bold is my emphasis)
I realize some won't accept this and are convinced the game is rigged. I'll listen if an analysis of 100K+ matchups by a statistics collection site by unbiased competent people show there is statistically significant matchup bias. Humans (including you and including me) are too susceptible to confirmation bias.
.
oh! that's a very interesting post, thank you for bringing it up. I tried digging up matchmaking topics but all I was suggested were salt threads. it's very odd how strict and clear it is in a game where they don't want to release game rules and pack statistics. even though I'm not that paranoid about the MM in Hearthstone, it's hard to trust this statement when even the MMR isn't visible to us. my average opponent sports a legend cardback, but every now and then I get a punching bag with nothing. what's going on there, did the search comb the planet that thoroughly and found nothing? I need to see our MMRs or MMR decay rate for this.
that's so wonderfully paranoid, I love it!
also loving the salt thread votes, I knew I didn't make a mistake adding that! please keep in mind I'm not trying to convince you of anything ; I want to know what you think is happening in the system.
''He traded sands for skins, skins for gold, gold for life. In the end, he traded life for sand.''
(.o.))~ ~(('o') (.o.))~
Golden cards weigh more than non-golden cards but that's due to the materials used so of course they will always find themselves at the bottom of your deck.
You can see your MMR in ladder. It's your rank + stars, or legend rank.
I do understand how the game can feel sometimes though. You get wrecked for games in a row by deck A so you switch to deck B and then queue up against deck C which is favored against B. But that stands out in your mind because emotion is involved. If you look at how many games you've played that's bound to happen sometimes especially when the meta is pretty polarized. As of course you don't know when you face an opponent who is currently experiencing the same kind of negative trend.
.
Look out folks, here comes the tinfoil hat brigade.
I thought that too until i switched to aggro. Then u find out that if u dont give enough time for ur opponent to play his good cards he cant win. Facing control? Well thats normal since many play it to stop the majority of aggro opponent's so thats not rigged. I dont complain ehrn i face aggro with my odd warrior nor do i complain to face hunter with my odd warrior and l9se on turn 6 when they play Dk rexxar. If 50% of players run hunter what fo i expect?