Good analysis and I think you may be right, One thing I'd like to add about your dopplegangster + DK Thrall point is that you have a significant chance of getting baron geddon which destroys a lot of the value that you just got through the double evolve, especially if your opponent has a damage-based aoe removal in hand.
That's a really minor consideration and probably wouldn't even be that terrible if it happened. Considering how late in the game that combo comes down, getting Geddon might be better for you than your opponent.
You might be right about what you say but don't forget about the cards like Moat Lurker and Bomb Squad. The hero card gives you an opportunity to get rid of its harmful effects like a cheaper version of Master of Evolution and you don't have to waste your Evolve for only one Moat Lurker. There are also good battlecry cards with bad stats like Bonemare, Big-Time Racketeer and variaties which i don't remember now.
You can use a Darkspeaker for buffing some cheap taunt minion and after that you can evolve it.
You can also try this hero card with a type of a C'Thun deck, which contains a lot of battlecry minions.
Also it is a good card with a murloc deck which Shaman has already a quest about it. You can boost your murlocs and some murlocs like Corrupted Seer can evolve well.
This card is bringing more things then we thought. It has a potential for the existing cards which never find some place in constructed. Also the cards which were well at constructed and no more find a place like Tinkmaster Overspark can be seen in ranked plays again.
Ofcourse they all are in paper. As you said, we shouldn't overestimate any card but what I'm trying to say is we shouldn't underestimate them too.
I'm trying to direct your attention to other techs than evolve-based decks. This card is more complicated than it seems.
I don't think a 5-cost evolve effect is anywhere close to making meme cards like bomb squad, darkspeaker, and moat lurker worth running. If they weren't good when you can change them for 1-mana, they sure as hell wont be good if you can change them for 5. Yeah, eventually you will be able to hero power them, but that still doesn't seem worth it to me, shaman already has premium removal tools. Like you mentioned, I can see it being useful for cards like Big Time Racketeer, where the small body gives you some other effect besides removal.
"Hey Pal, Trade Prince Gallywix here!"
All Classes Golden - 11/5/2016
Marsh queen had too much condition + reward was so slow compared to that condition but to use this you just need two cards on the board