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    posted a message on I feel like I'm doing things wrong. I'm always falling behind in the early game

    Don't worry about tribes early. Always upgrade on turn 2 (with some exceptions for certain heroes). Avoid rolling as much as possible until tavern tier 4.

    Posted in: Battlegrounds
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    posted a message on What is the odds?
    Quote from same_midaisun >>

    Well, there is a 70% chance not to get a specific class per run:

    9/10 * 8/9 * 7/8 = 7/10

    So not getting one in 16 runs in a row looks like a 0.7^16 = 0,33%

    Or 1 in 300. Not a very low chance BTW but still a feat.

     What you need to consider tho is this: The chance of it happening to one specific person , i.e. the op might be 0,33% but with probably millions of arena players everywhere, that still means that something like that happens all the time. People are being hit by lightning - just unlucky it was you op ;)

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on This is called Perfection for the new expansion.

    Very pleasing - not only because all the quests are as close to done as possible but especially because all the quests can be finished in a single priest game !

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Preorder? Yes or no?

    I'm a sucker for hero cards and i like a lot of what they showed thus far - so i'll preorder.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on I am level 58 (I don't own tavernpass), any chance to get level 100 before next reset?

    You need pretty much exactly 100k XP to get from 58 to 100: 7*1200 + 2*2100 + 3000 is 15600 xp per week only from quests. Since its only 2 weeks you would need to get almost 70k only from playing which seems.. kinda hard. I've read that you get around 400XP/hour for playing ranked. Using that number you would need to play 12 and a half hours of ranked each day. So i guess it is possible - not likely tho :D

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Biggest Battleground minion? (over 600/600+)
    Quote from DeathsAdvocate >>

     Oof - i kinda wanna try this build now

    Posted in: General Chat
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    posted a message on Murloc Madness Round 3
    Quote from Pherosizm >>
    Quote from MurlocHolmes_HS >>

    I must say -- I'm surprised to see Sylvanas Windrunner pulling away from Dr. Boom.

    I really expected to see him in the final four, if not further.

     I guess it depends on the motivation for voting.

    I'd say a lot of people voting might be voting for the character and not necessarily the Hearthstone card in this one.

    I was pretty fascinated with her as a character even back before she got redesigned in WoW: and I mean... for anyone who doesn't remember, she used to look like this:

    So, you know... it's not always about the sexy pixels.

     I tried to make my choice strictly on the cards themselves. I voted for Sylvanas because to this day it is my favorite card art. Plus the effect can be fun - had some good times wit her in deathrattle hunter meme decks.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Wait, people GENUINELY think the game is rigged?
    Quote from 3nnu1 >>

    It's funny how the reality deniers always fall back on the same tired excuses.

     

    Uh, you have confirmation bias. Which is a classic gaslighting technique that is use by con men of all ilks. Basically the argument is. You see that reality that is right in front of you, you are too stupid to know it is not real. Which is quite effective, especially with younger people who fear being perceived as different or dumb and are very sensitive to the criticism of their peers. This makes manipulating them way too easy. 

    But my very favorite is when they start in with burden of proof. That is language from court proceedings which is tied to two meanings, preponderance of evidence and beyond a reasonable doubt. Most lay people only think of beyond a reasonable doubt which is actually quite a difficult burden to make. I mean a guy has to be really guilty with a lot of strong evidence to overcome a reasonable doubt which a decent atty can generate. 

    So just in life, remember when someone goes to Burden of Proof to defend their position. What they usually mean is you are right but I can still deny it, nyaah, nyaah, nyaah. 

     

    But if you look at Blizzard/Activision...it is very hard to look at them as some moral group that would never engage in shenanigans to make money. I think their track record in the last decade speaks for itself. If you read through the other zephry;s thread I linked you will see many of the same arguments as this one, there is another good thread on this too, but I am bit too lazy to dig it up. But one thing to keep in mind is that Activision acquired King, which is notorious for manipulative controlled gameplay designed to cause frustration in their users to get them to spend. King also generates a bazillion dollars because that shit works. It is ridiculous to think that blizzard would not engage in similar tactics in this game. 

     So are you saying cognitive biases do not exist ? Or just that you and everyone on your side of an argument are somehow immune to them ?

    The burden of proof is not only a thing in court and its not only semantics. From Wikipedia:
    The burden of proof (Latinonus probandi, shortened from Onus probandi incumbit ei qui dicit, non ei qui negat) is the obligation on a party in a dispute to provide sufficient warrant for its position.

    Simply put you can't just make any statement without any proof whatsoever and expect people to believe you. That is just not how anything works.

    Lastly .. no one is arguing that Blizzard is somehow morally above doing something if it helps their profit. Nor does anyone deny that it would be possible to influence all kinds of things in games.
    But none of the proposed "rigging" has any actual benefit for Blizzard or their profits and more importantly there just is no prove for it !

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Wait, people GENUINELY think the game is rigged?
    Quote from MyDude33 >>

    Threads like these are fascinating to me. I guess you can say that anything that deviates from truly random is rigging the game. Although that statement doesn't add value to the argument or the game. 

    I think it's fair to say that the game has a matchmaking system that tries to find you a "Worthy Opponent". Is that detrimental? I think not. Especially since there is no evidence it does it based on cards or decks. It's just a normal matchmaking system. Does it feel bad when you are higher up than you actually should be and you get your ass handed to you? Yea, but that's just part of finding your equilibrium.

    People here are just ill equipped mentally to find their own faults in their play or deck. If it worked for so and so, why not me? because you are a human going up against another human who makes decisions and has creative thoughts. But it didn't follow the exact percentages I was told. Yea because those are based on huge sample sizes. You will see far more variation in your games than the stats show. Fact of the matter is that what you see is variation in how people see things and make decisions based on them. No one plays exactly the same way and there is always room for creativity and ingenuity which is what humans are good at. Adaptation to a meta is a sign of ingenuity not rigging.

    I'd also like someone to respond to the HSReplay stuff. Seriously, any rigging would show up in their stats somewhere. The only answer I've seen is that they are not analyzing it correctly lol. That's not how data analysis works. 

    Here's my conspiracy theory. There are people that get paid by competitors to come here and try to get people to think Hearthstone is rigged and the developers are pure evil. I find it hard to believe people would troll so hard without getting paid.

     This :D In the future i will just assume everyone making some outrageous claims about Hearthstone being rigged is a mad artifact developer ! 

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Wait, people GENUINELY think the game is rigged?

    I'm always shocked that a lot of these posts in threads like this sound like what you would see posted on the insanepeoplefacebook subreddit.

    The patent discussed above has nothing to do with making people lose or giving them certain cards in a match. As far as i can tell it only relates to matchmaking as a whole and goes into some detail about it. Much of the described functionality is not even relevant for Hearthstone. But theoretically this mechanism could be used to give players statistically worse match ups. Why tho ?  Frustrating players is the opposite of what the company would want. In fact a lot of whats described seems to be related to "rigging" (really more of adjusting a little) matchmaking in a positive sense for player enjoyment. Which seems like a much better way to make them spend money anyways.

    I see people always say "yeah yeah i know about confirmation bias and all the other things that make you think its rigged but that's actually not it - it really is rigged". These people obviously have heard about cognitive biases but don't really understand them.
    There is so much data out there on Hearthstone matches. If there was any weird stuff going on you could find it. Sometimes the absence of any evidence is quite clear in itself. So if you are convinced get some prove. (And I'm not talking about your last 20 games)

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Battlegrounds is rigged
    Quote from Toribasher >>
    Quote from Lorcen >>
     Wait, what?  In order for it to be rigged against you, it would need to be rigged FOR other players.  BGs are a zero-sum play mode.  If you're thinking "crap, those attacks sucked", your opponent is thinking "wow!  Those were some lucky attacks". 

    No Battlegrounds is NOT rigged against me.

    Battlegrounds is rigged to have shorter games or more excitement.

    Yes, confirmation bias exists and like everyone else I remember when the RNG sucks for me and forget the times it worked in my favor.

    I didn't think the game was rigged, but then saw too many statistically unlikely AI-precision attacks too often in too short a timespan.

    Some sort of rigging is going on.  But it is not against anyone in particular.  It could just be there to cull opponents to shorten games --- we see how they like short games in standard and it somehow boosts revenue.

     

     You were so close.. :(

    Posted in: Battlegrounds
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    posted a message on Battlegrounds is rigged
    Quote from Livesage >>

    Use some basic common sense, please. What would be the point of rigging BG in this fashion? Why waste resources to assign each player a custom MMR cap and then adjust their triple rates on a case-by-case basis, just to make players unhappy?

     This actually is an even better point than anything i've said!

    Posted in: Battlegrounds
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    posted a message on Battlegrounds is rigged
    Quote from user-18143276 >>

    Its easy to see for yourself. Just concede a bunch of games and watch the system give you more benefits and favorable rolls. 

     Even if that would randomly work for me it would not prove anything at all. Literally nothing.

    Posted in: Battlegrounds
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    posted a message on Battlegrounds is rigged

    This sounds to me like a mediocre player unsatisfied with their ability to climb and looking for something external to explain it. Very common sadly - not just in Hearthstone, but in gaming overall.
    Every matchmaking system aims to get players to their respective "correct" rating. If you don't improve you wont climb any further. Picking some random observations to "prove" anything is... oof

    Posted in: Battlegrounds
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    posted a message on Ranking the Questlines

    I think its really difficult to rank because there are a lot of factors to consider:

    - How quickly will you be able to complete the whole questline
    - How many cards in you deck will have to be dedicated just for that purpose (And related to that: How well does the Questline fit into a currently existing decktype for that class)
    - How good are the rewards for each step
    - How good is the final reward

    I think it would make sense to rank every questline in each of these categories.

    Demonhunter

    I have played so little Demonhunter compared to all other classes that i don't feel too comfortable to judge this one. But it seems to me that you will have drawn so much of you deck upon reaching the final reward that it often won't even matter. That being said.. maybe the cost reduction rewards for the steps are good enough ? 

    Druid

    I really dislike this one. To complete it quickly you need a lot of cards in your decks you would not want otherwise with any current decktype. And the rewards don't seem very exciting. The final reward is just a one time thing compared to the other often gamechanging ones.

    Hunter

    Most people seem to rank this very highly and i would have to agree. In a spell/face hunter deck you would already have a lot of the spells to complete this very quickly and once you get there it can be quite explosive. Maybe draw could be a problem for this kind of deck but we'll see. Could even work as a control tool in a slower deck ? (Probably not but i always try to make control hunter a thing)

    Mage

    For this one you would need to build a specific deck to be able to complete it in a reasonable time. The first 2 rewards help completing the following step which is nice i guess because with this one you are only playing for the final reward. This might be better than people make it out to be and i could see it getting completed and subsequently winning the game quite fast. I will certainly give this a try.

    Paladin

    First day of school, secrets and other useful one cost cards should make this very easy to complete. The rewards are not exactly gamebreaking but they provide a nice bit of extra juice to any aggressive paladin deck. There is ofc the drawback of not playing something to contest the board turn 1 which can be quite bad in aggressive decks but i still think that this will be pretty strong.

    Rogue

    Not a big rogue player but this seems pretty underwhelming. Possibly even weaker than druid. But then again.. rogue has the tendency to create surprisingly strong decks out of mediocre looking cards so .. who knows.

    Shaman

    You would have to build pretty much a full overload deck to be able to complete this which as far as i'm aware is not very good right now. It is getting a few more potential cards with the expansion but ..meh. The rewards for the first to step are pretty good tempo so that's nice and the final reward is obviously strong if you can make use of it but despite all this i'm still not convinced that this will actually make the deck good. 

    Warlock

    This might be the one where my opinion differs most from that of others. I've been playing a kind of selfhurting zoo deck quite a bit lately and it is actually an ok deck already. I could put this questline in that deck and it would instantly be much better. A little healing on the way and a great reward at the end that helps finishing the game. Especially because the deck draws really fast and you can now kill the opponent with your own fatigue ! This will be the one i will probably try first and i think it could be really strong (but maybe i just wish it was :D )

    Priest

    Objectively the best final reward. Getting there will take a while but the step rewards help getting the right cards in hand. The best thing about this is that it doesn't limit you to any specific decktype other than a general control deck. You can play the current versions of priest with this maybe instead of C'thun or you can probably make it work in some kind of new shadowpriest. This should be strong in at least one deck.

    Warrior

    This clearly limits you to playing a pirate deck which is by design an aggressive one. The Juggernaut seems like a nice finisher for this type of deck which tends to run out of juice if it can't kill the opponent. Possible to complete very quickly so it might actually a competitive deck in the end. Not quite sure tho.

     

    I did not really judge all criteria for every class but its a short overview over what i'm thinking. Feel free to disagree :D

    Posted in: General Discussion
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