So, new 50g quests for 3 wins as 1 class already here. Should we reroll them to try get 60g/100g/pack quests? Or should we keep them because we can reroll into 40g quest? What do you think?
I was curious as well. I used HS wiki, which has been updated with the newly announced quests. Just in case I have made a mistake, can someone check my math?
Somewhat surprised this sort of data/probability isn't on the HS wiki, or at least not on the quest page.
Depends. If you count the spectate quest as 100g, then the gold average is slightly higher than the new quests, so you should reroll. If you don't count it as 100g, then the average is slightly lower so you shouldn't reroll.
The only reason to reroll a 50g quest is if you don't think you can win with that class in my opinion.
Or if you want to try to reroll into a 60/100 quest at 34.3% which I think is pretty good odds. Dunno.
I would rather have a 50g quest for a class that I have experience with than taking a chance at dropping to a 40g quest or a 60g quest for classes that I don't have much experience with, just my opinion.
Chance of rerolling 50G to 50G/60G/100G: 20/35 = 57.1%
Chance of rerolling 40G/50G to 60G/100G: 12/35 = 34.3%
Using this, the chance of getting a 40g quest from a reroll is higher than getting a 60/100 gold quest (42.9% > 34.3%)
yeah, but the chance of getting a 50/60/100 is much higher at 60% or 57.1% than getting a 40
Yes, but that doesn't mean much. Rolling a 50 gains 0 gold, so it doesn't really count as a "good" or "bad" outcome unless you really hate that class. Of the outcomes that matter, you have a higher chance of losing gold than gaining it.
Of course, this doesn't account for the amount of gold gained. The average gold per quest(with spectate as 100g) is 51 and change, so it's better in the long-term to reroll 50 gold quests if you want classic packs. If you don't want classic packs, it's 48 and change, so you shouldn't reroll 50 gold quests if you don't want classic packs.
Chance of rerolling 50G to 50G/60G/100G: 20/35 = 57.1%
Chance of rerolling 40G/50G to 60G/100G: 12/35 = 34.3%
Using this, the chance of getting a 40g quest from a reroll is higher than getting a 60/100 gold quest (42.9% > 34.3%)
yeah, but the chance of getting a 50/60/100 is much higher at 60% or 57.1% than getting a 40
Yes, but that doesn't mean much. Rolling a 50 gains 0 gold, so it doesn't really count as a "good" or "bad" outcome unless you really hate that class. Of the outcomes that matter, you have a higher chance of losing gold than gaining it.
Of course, this doesn't account for the amount of gold gained. The average gold per quest(with spectate as 100g) is 51 and change, so it's better in the long-term to reroll 50 gold quests if you want classic packs. If you don't want classic packs, it's 48 and change, so you shouldn't reroll 50 gold quests if you don't want classic packs.
Ahh, I think I get what you are saying. Yeah, the percentage of getting 60/100 from 50 (34.3%) is lower than getting a 40 (42.9%)
Chance of rerolling 50G to 50G/60G/100G: 20/35 = 57.1%
Chance of rerolling 40G/50G to 60G/100G: 12/35 = 34.3%
Using this, the chance of getting a 40g quest from a reroll is higher than getting a 60/100 gold quest (42.9% > 34.3%)
yeah, but the chance of getting a 50/60/100 is much higher at 60% or 57.1% than getting a 40
Yes, but that doesn't mean much. Rolling a 50 gains 0 gold, so it doesn't really count as a "good" or "bad" outcome unless you really hate that class. Of the outcomes that matter, you have a higher chance of losing gold than gaining it.
Of course, this doesn't account for the amount of gold gained. The average gold per quest(with spectate as 100g) is 51 and change, so it's better in the long-term to reroll 50 gold quests if you want classic packs. If you don't want classic packs, it's 48 and change, so you shouldn't reroll 50 gold quests if you don't want classic packs.
Ahh, I think I get what you are saying. Yeah, the percentage of getting 60/100 from 50 (34.3%) is lower than getting a 40 (42.9%)
But you should not look at Win Gold/Lose Gold. Just look at the expected Value for Rerolling a Quest.
afaik you cant get the same quest you just dropped and ofc you cant get the quest you also have in your log. So we might assume, that you dont have any 60+ Gold Quest in your Log as you would have finished them. We can also assume, that you dont have any 40 Gold Quests or Watch and Learn if you measure its worth less than 50 Gold in your Log, otherwise you would just reroll them.
This brings us to three cases. To make this work for everyone we assume, that Watch And Learn equals X Gold
Watch And Learn equals X Gold
1. You have exactly 1 50 Gold Quest: eV of rerolling = 15/35*40 Gold + 8/35*50 Gold + 10/35*60 Gold + 1/35*100 Gold +1/35*X Gold= 48,57+X/35 Gold
For X>50: ev of rerolling > 50 Gold, otherwise <= 50 Gold
2. You have exactly 2 50 Gold Quest: eV of rerolling = 15/34*40 Gold + 7/34*50 Gold + 10/34*60 Gold + 1/34*100 Gold +1/34*X Gold = 48,53+1/34*X Gold
For X>50: ev of rerolling > 50 Gold, otherwise <= 50 Gold
3. You have exactly 3 50 Gold Quest: eV of rerolling = 15/33*40 Gold + 6/33*50 Gold + 10/33*60 Gold + 1/33*100 Gold +1/33*X Gold = 48,48+1/33*X Gold
For X>50: ev of rerolling > 50 Gold, otherwise <= 50 Gold
As all of our cases have the same result we now can make a general suggestion.
If you measure Watch And Learn more than 50 Gold, then you should reroll 50 Gold Quests.
If you measure Watch And Learn less than 50 Gold, then you shouldn't reroll 50 Gold Quests.
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So, new 50g quests for 3 wins as 1 class already here. Should we reroll them to try get 60g/100g/pack quests? Or should we keep them because we can reroll into 40g quest? What do you think?
Keep
*I assume you only have one quest and no quests on cooldown
Before Update:
40G quests: 15
60G quests: 9
100G quest (incl spectate quest): 2
Chance of rerolling 40G to 60G/100G: 11/25 = 44.0%
After Update:
40G quests: 15
50G quests: 9
60G quests: 10
100G quest (incl spectate quest): 2
Chance of rerolling 40G to 50G/60G/100G: 21/35 = 60.0%
Chance of rerolling 50G to 50G/60G/100G: 20/35 = 57.1%
Chance of rerolling 40G/50G to 60G/100G: 12/35 = 34.3%
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I was curious as well. I used HS wiki, which has been updated with the newly announced quests. Just in case I have made a mistake, can someone check my math?
Somewhat surprised this sort of data/probability isn't on the HS wiki, or at least not on the quest page.
Originally I posted here: http://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-discussion/56326-rerolling-50-gold-quests
Do you play Go/Weiqi/Baduk?
I am 4D
Thanks blizzard, now we get even less gold from dailies.
The reason we reroll 40 is that we will always get something equal or better. If we reroll 50, it might be an eternal 40->50->40- >50...etc
So basically they just replaced our 60g with 50g.
The quest pool went from 60% undesirable to 67% undesirable, in other words, from 40% keep to 33% keep.
Depends. If you count the spectate quest as 100g, then the gold average is slightly higher than the new quests, so you should reroll. If you don't count it as 100g, then the average is slightly lower so you shouldn't reroll.
Using this, the chance of getting a 40g quest from a reroll is higher than getting a 60/100 gold quest (42.9% > 34.3%)
yeah, but the chance of getting a 50/60/100 is much higher at 60% or 57.1% than getting a 40
Do you play Go/Weiqi/Baduk?
I am 4D
just rerolled my 50g paladin quest into 40g shaman/warlock. That was the first and last time i ever rerolled 50g quest.
No idea why they just didnt delete all the 40 gold quest
The only reason to reroll a 50g quest is if you don't think you can win with that class in my opinion.
If they do, then 50g will be the "new 40g quests" and everyone will reroll those to get 60g or 100g quests.
Or if you want to try to reroll into a 60/100 quest at 34.3% which I think is pretty good odds. Dunno.
Do you play Go/Weiqi/Baduk?
I am 4D
I would rather have a 50g quest for a class that I have experience with than taking a chance at dropping to a 40g quest or a 60g quest for classes that I don't have much experience with, just my opinion.
Yes, but that doesn't mean much. Rolling a 50 gains 0 gold, so it doesn't really count as a "good" or "bad" outcome unless you really hate that class. Of the outcomes that matter, you have a higher chance of losing gold than gaining it.
Of course, this doesn't account for the amount of gold gained. The average gold per quest(with spectate as 100g) is 51 and change, so it's better in the long-term to reroll 50 gold quests if you want classic packs. If you don't want classic packs, it's 48 and change, so you shouldn't reroll 50 gold quests if you don't want classic packs.
Ahh, I think I get what you are saying. Yeah, the percentage of getting 60/100 from 50 (34.3%) is lower than getting a 40 (42.9%)
Do you play Go/Weiqi/Baduk?
I am 4D
But you should not look at Win Gold/Lose Gold. Just look at the expected Value for Rerolling a Quest.
afaik you cant get the same quest you just dropped and ofc you cant get the quest you also have in your log. So we might assume, that you dont have any 60+ Gold Quest in your Log as you would have finished them. We can also assume, that you dont have any 40 Gold Quests or Watch and Learn if you measure its worth less than 50 Gold in your Log, otherwise you would just reroll them.
This brings us to three cases. To make this work for everyone we assume, that Watch And Learn equals X Gold
Watch And Learn equals X Gold
1. You have exactly 1 50 Gold Quest: eV of rerolling = 15/35*40 Gold + 8/35*50 Gold + 10/35*60 Gold + 1/35*100 Gold +1/35*X Gold= 48,57+X/35 Gold
For X>50: ev of rerolling > 50 Gold, otherwise <= 50 Gold
2. You have exactly 2 50 Gold Quest: eV of rerolling = 15/34*40 Gold + 7/34*50 Gold + 10/34*60 Gold + 1/34*100 Gold +1/34*X Gold = 48,53+1/34*X Gold
For X>50: ev of rerolling > 50 Gold, otherwise <= 50 Gold
3. You have exactly 3 50 Gold Quest: eV of rerolling = 15/33*40 Gold + 6/33*50 Gold + 10/33*60 Gold + 1/33*100 Gold +1/33*X Gold = 48,48+1/33*X Gold
For X>50: ev of rerolling > 50 Gold, otherwise <= 50 Gold
As all of our cases have the same result we now can make a general suggestion.
If you measure Watch And Learn more than 50 Gold, then you should reroll 50 Gold Quests.
If you measure Watch And Learn less than 50 Gold, then you shouldn't reroll 50 Gold Quests.