I wanted to start a thread here discussing the value of your real life dollar in HearthStone.
This will be a little ridden with math, but I don't think I'm going to simplify everything into linear equations when applicable. I'm also rounding the $.99 to $1, because.
I'm not yet in Beta because I suck, so correct any areas that I misunderstand from what I've seen.
You can spend your hard earned $ by entering the arena ($2 or 150g) or at the card shop ($3 for 2 packs, $50 for 40 packs). So what does this mean for you?
The cost of card packs:
Y=MX + B => Cost = (Change in Cost/Pack)Packs + Constant
For 2 packs this means we have $3 = M * 2 + constant
For 40 packs it's $50 = M * 40 + constant
We can solve M as ($50 - $3) / (40 packs - 2 packs) = 1.23684210526.
We can solve B then with $3 = 1.23684210526 * 2 + constant => $3 - 1.24 * 2 = 0.52
So, as an estimate (because I rounded significantly) of the cost of card packs: Cost = 1.24 * #Packs + .52
The value of gold:
Using the equation above we can determine one card pack is worth 1.24 * 1 + .52 = $1.76 and this cost goes down (per pack) as you spend more money on them (at 40 packs the cost per pack is only $1.25). But it is actually impossible to buy packs @ this price as the minimum number of packs purchasable is 2 for $3. So it makes more logical sense to calculate our worst case scenarios using the $1.50/pack model ($3/2 packs).
Now we consider what our gold is worth in this scenario: $1.50 = 1 pack = 100g. So each piece of gold should be roughly equivalent to $0.015
If we compare the gold value to the cost of the arena, $2 for 150g, the gold value decreases to $.01333333.
Where this gets interesting is the Arena
The arena entry fee of $2 seems like a serious nuisance, but where is that money going?
You receive, as an arena reward 1 Card pack + 4 other rewards (ranging from cards to gold to arcane dust).
Now in the worse case scenario, 0 wins 3 losses, you receive 1 card pack + ~10-20 gold + ~ 5-15 arcane. My sample set is pretty small but I think that these sound about correct.
We can calculate the value of dust, roughly, as a worst case pack = $1.50 for 4 common + 1 rare = 5 dust/common + 20 dust/rare = 40 dust for $1.50 = ~ $0.0375/dust.
So what did you win, or lose, in the worst case scenario: $2 entry => $1.50 for the card pack + $.15 (10 gold * $.015 ) + $0.1875 (5 dust $0.0375/dust) * = $1.8375. Yeesh!
It seems like in the very worst case scenario (not sure if it's plausible because when 10 gold was given more than 5 dust was given, and when 5 dust was given 20 gold was given, in source) that the $2.00 entry fee yielded less than $2.00 in rewards. But that's pretty fair because of the value of the best case scenario.
A best case scenario: 200 gold, 150 arcane, 1 pack = $1.50 + $5.625 (150 * $.0375) + $3 (200g * $.015) = $10.125 worth of goods.
Now, bear in mind that these values, the cost of packs, the value of dust, and the value of gold, are hard to truly compute, as they are all on their own axes and scale dependent on their use. For example, the only way to get dust is disenchanting cards, so the value of dust in dollars is relative to the cost to get the dust, but then to make a card pack out of dust the values are cut in half. So although it may cost $5.625 to get 150 dust, 150 dust turned into cards is only worth cost of 4 commons crafted = 160 dust, 1 rare = 100 dust => 260 dust. But then again you got to choose what those 5 cards were, so it doesn't translate well in that regard.
Sorry if I was extremely hard to follow. I'm considering this a work in progress and would love the help and feedback of those interested.
While my sleep deprived brain can't work through and help check the numbers for you, the theory and comparisons you've made are very sound. Nice job!
I didn't realise until recently that you got a card pack guaranteed from arena, so that alone makes it a worthwhile investment. Following it through with the other values and the other rewards, it certainly seems a much more cost efficient way to build up your collection, providing you've got the time to play the Arena mode.
In the end if comes down to preference If people want to spend most of their time doing 1 vs. 1 play mode against friends or challenge others with their deck ideas, then I expect they'll buy packs to do this sooner, even if it's not as cost effective to do so.
I agree! Thanks for doing this and making this topic Shnikum! I will mostly play 1v1 but when I feel like doing the arena now I know it's actually a pretty good deal, win or lose. :) And I'm keeping my card pack buying within a minimum, no more than $20 per month. I want to take my time and enjoy the game. :)
That is some hefty maths I would have never done!, Thanks!! I especially like the idea of making the monies ;)
Except there's no way to cash out "the monies".
Just keeping a 70% winrate in arena is basically free packs and stuff since it already repays your entry fee. It seems like either arena has no MMR (or the MMR system in arena is broken), so anyone that has any decent level experience in card games is sort of just rolling over people with no idea on how card games work.
Like the last set of games i played, which was only like 7 or 8 wins already gave me 245 gold. Deck also sucked since i had 3 of those "cant attack" guys, since apparently i was thinking "MTG - I can use these cost efficient guys to defend". I only lost gold like twice, but the sets that give like way more than 150 gold easily cover for those fail sets of games.
That is some hefty maths I would have never done!, Thanks!! I especially like the idea of making the monies ;)
Except there's no way to cash out "the monies".
Just keeping a 70% winrate in arena is basically free packs and stuff since it already repays your entry fee. It seems like either arena has no MMR (or the MMR system in arena is broken), so anyone that has any decent level experience in card games is sort of just rolling over people with no idea on how card games work.
Like the last set of games i played, which was only like 7 or 8 wins already gave me 245 gold. Deck also sucked since i had 3 of those "cant attack" guys, since apparently i was thinking "MTG - I can use these cost efficient guys to defend". I only lost gold like twice, but the sets that give like way more than 150 gold easily cover for those fail sets of games.
yea thats the impression i was getting as well. however, one huge disadvantage that MTG players have is the counter, block, and phased play mentality. i cant even count the number of time when i automatically thought i would just block the attack with guy x.
I wanted to start a thread here discussing the value of your real life dollar in HearthStone.
This will be a little ridden with math, but I don't think I'm going to simplify everything into linear equations when applicable. I'm also rounding the $.99 to $1, because.
I'm not yet in Beta because I suck, so correct any areas that I misunderstand from what I've seen.
You can spend your hard earned $ by entering the arena ($2 or 150g) or at the card shop ($3 for 2 packs, $50 for 40 packs). So what does this mean for you?
The cost of card packs:
Y=MX + B => Cost = (Change in Cost/Pack)Packs + Constant
For 2 packs this means we have $3 = M * 2 + constant
For 40 packs it's $50 = M * 40 + constant
We can solve M as ($50 - $3) / (40 packs - 2 packs) = 1.23684210526.
We can solve B then with $3 = 1.23684210526 * 2 + constant => $3 - 1.24 * 2 = 0.52
So, as an estimate (because I rounded significantly) of the cost of card packs: Cost = 1.24 * #Packs + .52
The value of gold:
Using the equation above we can determine one card pack is worth 1.24 * 1 + .52 = $1.76 and this cost goes down (per pack) as you spend more money on them (at 40 packs the cost per pack is only $1.25). But it is actually impossible to buy packs @ this price as the minimum number of packs purchasable is 2 for $3. So it makes more logical sense to calculate our worst case scenarios using the $1.50/pack model ($3/2 packs).
Now we consider what our gold is worth in this scenario: $1.50 = 1 pack = 100g. So each piece of gold should be roughly equivalent to $0.015
If we compare the gold value to the cost of the arena, $2 for 150g, the gold value decreases to $.01333333.
Where this gets interesting is the Arena
The arena entry fee of $2 seems like a serious nuisance, but where is that money going?
For reference, and my source (http://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/the-arena/403-rewards-for-arena)
You receive, as an arena reward 1 Card pack + 4 other rewards (ranging from cards to gold to arcane dust).
Now in the worse case scenario, 0 wins 3 losses, you receive 1 card pack + ~10-20 gold + ~ 5-15 arcane. My sample set is pretty small but I think that these sound about correct.
We can calculate the value of dust, roughly, as a worst case pack = $1.50 for 4 common + 1 rare = 5 dust/common + 20 dust/rare = 40 dust for $1.50 = ~ $0.0375/dust.
So what did you win, or lose, in the worst case scenario: $2 entry => $1.50 for the card pack + $.15 (10 gold * $.015 ) + $0.1875 (5 dust $0.0375/dust) * = $1.8375. Yeesh!
It seems like in the very worst case scenario (not sure if it's plausible because when 10 gold was given more than 5 dust was given, and when 5 dust was given 20 gold was given, in source) that the $2.00 entry fee yielded less than $2.00 in rewards. But that's pretty fair because of the value of the best case scenario.
A best case scenario: 200 gold, 150 arcane, 1 pack = $1.50 + $5.625 (150 * $.0375) + $3 (200g * $.015) = $10.125 worth of goods.
Now, bear in mind that these values, the cost of packs, the value of dust, and the value of gold, are hard to truly compute, as they are all on their own axes and scale dependent on their use. For example, the only way to get dust is disenchanting cards, so the value of dust in dollars is relative to the cost to get the dust, but then to make a card pack out of dust the values are cut in half. So although it may cost $5.625 to get 150 dust, 150 dust turned into cards is only worth cost of 4 commons crafted = 160 dust, 1 rare = 100 dust => 260 dust. But then again you got to choose what those 5 cards were, so it doesn't translate well in that regard.
Sorry if I was extremely hard to follow. I'm considering this a work in progress and would love the help and feedback of those interested.
While my sleep deprived brain can't work through and help check the numbers for you, the theory and comparisons you've made are very sound. Nice job!
I didn't realise until recently that you got a card pack guaranteed from arena, so that alone makes it a worthwhile investment. Following it through with the other values and the other rewards, it certainly seems a much more cost efficient way to build up your collection, providing you've got the time to play the Arena mode.
In the end if comes down to preference If people want to spend most of their time doing 1 vs. 1 play mode against friends or challenge others with their deck ideas, then I expect they'll buy packs to do this sooner, even if it's not as cost effective to do so.
"I should have done it all so differently, but I'm just me." - Evergrey
I agree! Thanks for doing this and making this topic Shnikum! I will mostly play 1v1 but when I feel like doing the arena now I know it's actually a pretty good deal, win or lose. :) And I'm keeping my card pack buying within a minimum, no more than $20 per month. I want to take my time and enjoy the game. :)
That is some hefty maths I would have never done!, Thanks!! I especially like the idea of making the monies ;)
Now if you can apply this math to how much they are going to reimburse us in gold for buying packs that would be great.
Except there's no way to cash out "the monies".
Just keeping a 70% winrate in arena is basically free packs and stuff since it already repays your entry fee. It seems like either arena has no MMR (or the MMR system in arena is broken), so anyone that has any decent level experience in card games is sort of just rolling over people with no idea on how card games work.
Like the last set of games i played, which was only like 7 or 8 wins already gave me 245 gold. Deck also sucked since i had 3 of those "cant attack" guys, since apparently i was thinking "MTG - I can use these cost efficient guys to defend". I only lost gold like twice, but the sets that give like way more than 150 gold easily cover for those fail sets of games.
Well, it is beta, so it would be no surprise to anyone if underlying ratings mechanics were not working or not set in stone.
yea thats the impression i was getting as well. however, one huge disadvantage that MTG players have is the counter, block, and phased play mentality. i cant even count the number of time when i automatically thought i would just block the attack with guy x.
my brain hurts as so much maths. But I didn't realize that stuff about the rewards from arena.
The game is so much fun =D Just enjoy it now, get all classes to 10, learn all cards, try all combinations.
Worry about math and "bang for your buck" later, when the game is released and all the mechanics are settled down.