I've been discussing this a lot, and I'm curious as to other's thoughts on the recent announcement that Arena reward packs are not going to be from the latest expansion, but rather random among Classic, GvG and GT.
Now let's get a few things out of the way to try and keep this on task.
1. Yes, this is primarily a money grab by Blizzard 2. Yes, it would have been better for the long term to likely introduce some sort of choice system 3. Yes, Blizzard is putting new players ahead of veteran players.
Better, now? Now, point 3 is what I want to talk about. The only way this decision can have some sort of credibility (and not just be seen as a money grab) is for #3 to bear long term fruit. But I don't know how it does that. In the short term, this pack system works for new players and it might make Arena even more newb friendly if some people don't play it anymore. But what happens 6 months from now? The new players are now veteran players... and the new pack presumably becomes a 1/4 proposition instead of 1/3. I don't see how this can be sustainable, in terms of always bringing in new players (so that a large enough portion of the base is happy with the system) and in terms of Arena being seen as a good use of gold or $$$ to purchase.
My predictions are that by the time the next expansion rolls around we will see:
-IAP of Arena entries decreasing due to less motivation to play it among the majority of players -Increase in the number of IAPs for Adventures, since they already are very cost effective and people want to save gold for packs -Arena rewards will be based on what's missing from your collection. For instance, I can see the pack being random, but that randomness weighted by what you are missing. Let's say you are missing 100 cards overall for simplicity, and 40 are from Classic, 10 from GvG, and 50 from the Grand Tournament. Expansion 3 let's say is 200 cards (90 unique x2, and 20 Legendaries). You would be missing 300 cards, and the chance you'd get a pack of each type would be:
This would change drastically as you buy packs, and sooner or later you would get to the point where you have more or less equal odds, but this would let Blizzard keep their random UI hidden and would still incentivize buying packs, especially once the odds for getting the packs you want go down. The server could update whenever you get a pack (even before opening it) so that you can't game the system.
A simpler thing that has been suggested is to prioritize the new expansion for a period of time, and then go random, but I don't know if they will do that, since it will let people not buy as much of the new set if they can grind out arena runs for it.
Another idea is that they could let you know ahead of time what your Arena prize will be, and then you can reroll it maybe once for free daily and then maybe gold for more respins. If you buy arena entries with money, maybe you get unlimited reroll (ie you can choose).
As much as I wish for a token system, I don't know if Blizzard will go to it. The time to implement that was now. =(
TLDR - I don't see this working for the long term. What do you think will happen to Arena prizes?
-IAP of Arena entries decreasing due to less motivation to play it among the majority of players
If your hypothesis turned out to be true that the number of players will decrease due to the lack of relevant packs, then Arena should be stagnant already. GvG was such a small set that players completed most of it in a month or two. We were stuck with GvG for months and months. At this point, even many Arena veterans could benefit from Classic packs over GvG. Given that I'm skeptical of this case, I would argue that players simply play Arena for fun despite them already getting tons of duplicates to begin with.
Furthermore, I'd like to point sticking with one pack isn't inherently better or worse in terms of duplicates except for like the first one or two months when the set is newly released. Again, players will start being deluged with duplicates if Arena awarded only one set and, in the long term, awarding random packs is better for completing the collection.
Well, I don't know if Arena use will be stagnant with the new set. They lose the veterans who don't like it, but potentially it is offset by new players and maybe even some farmers who hope that the field is weakened with new players so they can earn more per run. That's why I said IAP - the $2 entry fee. I do think that will go down, since those likely come from veterans who might not want to spend more for a random pack, even if Arena play remains constant.
As to this happening with GvG, yes, I agree that people love to play Arena despite the rewards. I'm one of them. I'll play under the random system as much as I did before. I do think there have been complaints about being forced to get GvG packs, but this is the first time I can recall seeing "Ill quit Arena" posts. That's my prediction, really - the change of not being able to get enough of the new set consistently through repeated runs is what is making people angry to the point of quitting. So I don't think its an equal comparison between everyone being sick of GvG packs to the new system. If they gave out GT packs instead of the random ones, I would think that people would be fine with it for the most part.
After spending $100 on classic, I decided when GVG comes out I will learn how to become an infinite arena player so I won't have to buy any more packs. But after becoming infinite I felt bad because I love this game and I’m not contributing any money to development so I bought all 3 hero skins.
Making the packs random is a dick move, but I also find it irritating when consumers want so much and contribute no money to development.
I think that Blizzard should test this random pack system out and see if people buy more packs. If people leave arena then they should make more customizable items that consumers can purchase like in MOBA’s to make up for development costs.
And the system doesn’t hurt all veteran players. This change has very little effect on infinite arena players like myself.
Let’s say I play 21 arenas per month, which is about right. So 7 Classic packs, 7 GVG packs, and 7 TGT packs as arena rewards. Plus 4 classic packs from brawl. Plus 1500 gold from 30 daily quests which I will spend on 15 TGT packs.
A minimum of 40 packs per month earned for free (7 GVG, 11 Classic, and 22 TGT). 45% of my packs will be a huge amount of dust, but that is what infinite players want anyways.
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4x Top 150 arena player #95 June 2017 6.80, #108 Aug 2017 7.67, #127 Feb 2018 Wildfest 7.7, #33 Nov 2018 7.53
HCT Challenger Finals qualifier: 2018 Season 1, 2, 3
What I don't understand is why not let the players choose the pack from ARENA ? It would be like pre-GvG. the good players could spend all day long playing ARENA and get all the cards they needed from there. If they REALLY wanted to help new players that's what they would make.However it seems they are getting a bit greedy and in any game which calls itself ''f2p'' is very dangerous
In 6 months all packs will be of equal value: 40 dust.
Before that, it's great for newer players (so they don't care), while older players probably saved up their gold/money and bought a bunch of packs at launch and own 80% off the cards in the first week or so(so they shouldn't care either).
I agree, I don't get what all the anger is about. So blizzard has made it take a little longer to get the new cards for free . . . What horrible monsters they are . . .
-IAP of Arena entries decreasing due to less motivation to play it among the majority of players
If your hypothesis turned out to be true that the number of players will decrease due to the lack of relevant packs, then Arena should be stagnant already. GvG was such a small set that players completed most of it in a month or two. We were stuck with GvG for months and months. At this point, even many Arena veterans could benefit from Classic packs over GvG. Given that I'm skeptical of this case, I would argue that players simply play Arena for fun despite them already getting tons of duplicates to begin with.
Furthermore, I'd like to point sticking with one pack isn't inherently better or worse in terms of duplicates except for like the first one or two months when the set is newly released. Again, players will start being deluged with duplicates if Arena awarded only one set and, in the long term, awarding random packs is better for completing the collection.
The ones that finished GvG after 1-2 month are exceptional players. Normally it takes much longer. And for completing the collection. Just given packs from one set might be bad, but random packs are worse. You get more packs with a low value. And it becomes really inefficient to complete a set by crafting the missing cards, since you can't avoid getting those packs again.
After spending $100 on classic, I decided when GVG comes out I will learn how to become an infinite arena player so I won't have to buy any more packs. But after becoming infinite I felt bad because I love this game and I’m not contributing any money to development so I bought all 3 hero skins.
Making the packs random is a dick move, but I also find it irritating when consumers want so much and contribute no money to development.
I think that Blizzard should test this random pack system out and see if people buy more packs. If people leave arena then they should make more customizable items that consumers can purchase like in MOBA’s to make up for development costs.
And the system doesn’t hurt all veteran players. This change has very little effect on infinite arena players like myself.
Let’s say I play 21 arenas per month, which is about right. So 7 Classic packs, 7 GVG packs, and 7 TGT packs as arena rewards. Plus 4 classic packs from brawl. Plus 1500 gold from 30 daily quests which I will spend on 15 TGT packs.
A minimum of 40 packs per month earned for free (7 GVG, 11 Classic, and 22 TGT). 45% of my packs will be a huge amount of dust, but that is what infinite players want anyways.
Not everyone is in that good spot to be so good in Arena that you get the money pack. I play around 30 arena runs a month and maybe spend 500 gold for packs. For me it is a hugh difference if i get 20 TGT packs or 10 Classic and 10 GvG. The expected value of classic and GvG is <150 dust, while TGT starts with an expected value of 400.
I don't even see how the new system should be so good for new players? First of all, new players don't play so many arena, since it is mostly inefficient for them. So in the first month they usually buy packs instead of arena. And then they get a classic pack just in 33 % of all cases. And since they get packs from all sets they don't even have so many synergies as they would had, if they would get packs from the same set. Letting the players choose is the only way.
Wow. This thread is huge, and i don't mean i was reading for some time. :D My opinion: It will not hurt veterans. Yes, they will get duplicates. Yes, they will dust them. Yes, a lot of people are still playing Arena even it gives only G&G packs. No, the average dust per pack isn't 40, thats the lowest ( 4 common + 1 rare). Average is about 107, look it up, someone did the math. And also, veterans only miss some specific epic or legendary cards, and in most cases, they will need dust to craft them. Myself, I am F2P, and dont have all cards, and I am playing HS for almost a year, so randomn cards from Arena is great.
Dunno if i can put someones name in a post, didnt read that part of the rules, but for the guy who gets 40 pack per month. GOOD JOB! Myself, only from grinding the ladder I get on average 2200 gold per month (so 22 packs on average). And i stoped playing Arena few months ago when I released that mine classic card collection is almost nonexistent.
So, yeah. I think this is good move from Blizzard. We are kind of happy, they are a lot happier. :D *grabs popcorn*
TLDR - I don't see this working for the long term. What do you think will happen to Arena prizes?
Veteran players and popular streamers who get invited to blizzard a lot will keep bringing up the arena token idea until the blizzard staff finally caves in and does it, while marketing it as their clever idea to improve player life instead of admitting they should have done that since the start.
"Crest Toothpaste, now with ZERO poison! You're welcome, guys! Only Crest could think of such ideas!"
I've been discussing this a lot, and I'm curious as to other's thoughts on the recent announcement that Arena reward packs are not going to be from the latest expansion, but rather random among Classic, GvG and GT.
Now let's get a few things out of the way to try and keep this on task.
1. Yes, this is primarily a money grab by Blizzard
2. Yes, it would have been better for the long term to likely introduce some sort of choice system
3. Yes, Blizzard is putting new players ahead of veteran players.
Better, now? Now, point 3 is what I want to talk about. The only way this decision can have some sort of credibility (and not just be seen as a money grab) is for #3 to bear long term fruit. But I don't know how it does that. In the short term, this pack system works for new players and it might make Arena even more newb friendly if some people don't play it anymore. But what happens 6 months from now? The new players are now veteran players... and the new pack presumably becomes a 1/4 proposition instead of 1/3. I don't see how this can be sustainable, in terms of always bringing in new players (so that a large enough portion of the base is happy with the system) and in terms of Arena being seen as a good use of gold or $$$ to purchase.
My predictions are that by the time the next expansion rolls around we will see:
-IAP of Arena entries decreasing due to less motivation to play it among the majority of players
-Increase in the number of IAPs for Adventures, since they already are very cost effective and people want to save gold for packs
-Arena rewards will be based on what's missing from your collection. For instance, I can see the pack being random, but that randomness weighted by what you are missing. Let's say you are missing 100 cards overall for simplicity, and 40 are from Classic, 10 from GvG, and 50 from the Grand Tournament. Expansion 3 let's say is 200 cards (90 unique x2, and 20 Legendaries). You would be missing 300 cards, and the chance you'd get a pack of each type would be:
40/300 = 13% Classic
10/300 = 3% GvG
50/300 = 17% GT
200/300 = 66% Expansion 3
This would change drastically as you buy packs, and sooner or later you would get to the point where you have more or less equal odds, but this would let Blizzard keep their random UI hidden and would still incentivize buying packs, especially once the odds for getting the packs you want go down. The server could update whenever you get a pack (even before opening it) so that you can't game the system.
A simpler thing that has been suggested is to prioritize the new expansion for a period of time, and then go random, but I don't know if they will do that, since it will let people not buy as much of the new set if they can grind out arena runs for it.
Another idea is that they could let you know ahead of time what your Arena prize will be, and then you can reroll it maybe once for free daily and then maybe gold for more respins. If you buy arena entries with money, maybe you get unlimited reroll (ie you can choose).
As much as I wish for a token system, I don't know if Blizzard will go to it. The time to implement that was now. =(
TLDR - I don't see this working for the long term. What do you think will happen to Arena prizes?
Play Star Wars: The Customizable Card Game - www.starwarsccg.org
If your hypothesis turned out to be true that the number of players will decrease due to the lack of relevant packs, then Arena should be stagnant already. GvG was such a small set that players completed most of it in a month or two. We were stuck with GvG for months and months. At this point, even many Arena veterans could benefit from Classic packs over GvG. Given that I'm skeptical of this case, I would argue that players simply play Arena for fun despite them already getting tons of duplicates to begin with.
Furthermore, I'd like to point sticking with one pack isn't inherently better or worse in terms of duplicates except for like the first one or two months when the set is newly released. Again, players will start being deluged with duplicates if Arena awarded only one set and, in the long term, awarding random packs is better for completing the collection.
Well, I don't know if Arena use will be stagnant with the new set. They lose the veterans who don't like it, but potentially it is offset by new players and maybe even some farmers who hope that the field is weakened with new players so they can earn more per run. That's why I said IAP - the $2 entry fee. I do think that will go down, since those likely come from veterans who might not want to spend more for a random pack, even if Arena play remains constant.
As to this happening with GvG, yes, I agree that people love to play Arena despite the rewards. I'm one of them. I'll play under the random system as much as I did before. I do think there have been complaints about being forced to get GvG packs, but this is the first time I can recall seeing "Ill quit Arena" posts. That's my prediction, really - the change of not being able to get enough of the new set consistently through repeated runs is what is making people angry to the point of quitting. So I don't think its an equal comparison between everyone being sick of GvG packs to the new system. If they gave out GT packs instead of the random ones, I would think that people would be fine with it for the most part.
Play Star Wars: The Customizable Card Game - www.starwarsccg.org
After spending $100 on classic, I decided when GVG comes out I will learn how to become an infinite arena player so I won't have to buy any more packs. But after becoming infinite I felt bad because I love this game and I’m not contributing any money to development so I bought all 3 hero skins.
Making the packs random is a dick move, but I also find it irritating when consumers want so much and contribute no money to development.
I think that Blizzard should test this random pack system out and see if people buy more packs. If people leave arena then they should make more customizable items that consumers can purchase like in MOBA’s to make up for development costs.
And the system doesn’t hurt all veteran players. This change has very little effect on infinite arena players like myself.
Let’s say I play 21 arenas per month, which is about right. So 7 Classic packs, 7 GVG packs, and 7 TGT packs as arena rewards. Plus 4 classic packs from brawl. Plus 1500 gold from 30 daily quests which I will spend on 15 TGT packs.
A minimum of 40 packs per month earned for free (7 GVG, 11 Classic, and 22 TGT). 45% of my packs will be a huge amount of dust, but that is what infinite players want anyways.
4x Top 150 arena player
#95 June 2017 6.80, #108 Aug 2017 7.67, #127 Feb 2018 Wildfest 7.7, #33 Nov 2018 7.53
HCT Challenger Finals qualifier: 2018 Season 1, 2, 3
What I don't understand is why not let the players choose the pack from ARENA ? It would be like pre-GvG. the good players could spend all day long playing ARENA and get all the cards they needed from there. If they REALLY wanted to help new players that's what they would make.However it seems they are getting a bit greedy and in any game which calls itself ''f2p'' is very dangerous
I agree, I don't get what all the anger is about. So blizzard has made it take a little longer to get the new cards for free . . . What horrible monsters they are . . .
The ones that finished GvG after 1-2 month are exceptional players. Normally it takes much longer. And for completing the collection. Just given packs from one set might be bad, but random packs are worse. You get more packs with a low value. And it becomes really inefficient to complete a set by crafting the missing cards, since you can't avoid getting those packs again.
Not everyone is in that good spot to be so good in Arena that you get the money pack. I play around 30 arena runs a month and maybe spend 500 gold for packs. For me it is a hugh difference if i get 20 TGT packs or 10 Classic and 10 GvG. The expected value of classic and GvG is <150 dust, while TGT starts with an expected value of 400.
I don't even see how the new system should be so good for new players? First of all, new players don't play so many arena, since it is mostly inefficient for them. So in the first month they usually buy packs instead of arena. And then they get a classic pack just in 33 % of all cases. And since they get packs from all sets they don't even have so many synergies as they would had, if they would get packs from the same set. Letting the players choose is the only way.
Wow. This thread is huge, and i don't mean i was reading for some time. :D
My opinion:
It will not hurt veterans.
Yes, they will get duplicates. Yes, they will dust them. Yes, a lot of people are still playing Arena even it gives only G&G packs. No, the average dust per pack isn't 40, thats the lowest ( 4 common + 1 rare).
Average is about 107, look it up, someone did the math. And also, veterans only miss some specific epic or legendary cards, and in most cases, they will need dust to craft them.
Myself, I am F2P, and dont have all cards, and I am playing HS for almost a year, so randomn cards from Arena is great.
Dunno if i can put someones name in a post, didnt read that part of the rules, but for the guy who gets 40 pack per month. GOOD JOB!
Myself, only from grinding the ladder I get on average 2200 gold per month (so 22 packs on average).
And i stoped playing Arena few months ago when I released that mine classic card collection is almost nonexistent.
So, yeah. I think this is good move from Blizzard. We are kind of happy, they are a lot happier. :D
*grabs popcorn*
Veteran players and popular streamers who get invited to blizzard a lot will keep bringing up the arena token idea until the blizzard staff finally caves in and does it, while marketing it as their clever idea to improve player life instead of admitting they should have done that since the start.
"Crest Toothpaste, now with ZERO poison! You're welcome, guys! Only Crest could think of such ideas!"
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