We Learn Nothing New About Card Pack Drop Rates
A new set of rules in China that became active on May 1st requires that games with "loot boxes" publish their odds publicly as to let consumers know what they're getting into. There was a lot of hype surrounding this announcement of these rules because we'd finally learn the deep dark secrets of Hearthstone's card packs, but that's not what happened.
A blog on the Hearthstone China website came out and had this to say about card packs.
- You'll get at least 1 rare, or better, in each pack.
- An epic will be received, on average, in 1 of every 5 packs.
- Legendaries, on average, will be received in 1 of every 20 packs.
- As players open more packs, the actual probability of opening cards with higher quality increases.
TADA! We learned nothing new. Over the past few years, the community itself has done a better job at figuring out the various card drop rates, and even figured out the pity timer. You should check out the card pack statistics page on the Hearthstone Wiki.
Blog Post Translation
Google Translate to the rescue! You should be able to get the gist of it.
Interestingly, the post has been backdated April 2nd. We're assuming this is because they didn't want it to be on the front of their blog and thus widespread knowledge to more casual fans. Fun.
Quote from BlizzardAccording to the relevant national laws and regulations, "slag legend" is now the probability of taking cards to publish, as follows:
Note: "slag legend" card package a total of five cards, including four different quality.
Rare cards
Each slag card package, at least to get a rare or higher quality card.
Epic card
An average of 5 slag card card package, you can get an epic quality card.
Legend card
An average of 20 slag card card package, you can get a legendary quality card.
In addition, it should be noted that: with the number of cards to increase the number of packages, players actually get high-quality card card probability will also increase.
Well, someone got 2 legendaries in one pack, while I got 1 legendary in 60 packs, that's 1 in 20 on average. That's how it always worked.
i am playing HS since beta and i never was so unlucky LOL.FeelsBadMan
I guess I've been lucky. Since I've started tracking my pack openings I have a global rate of 1.13% for legendaries and 4.69% for epics which are both slightly higher than the expected 1% (1/100 cards) and 4% (1/25 cards) from Blizzard.
The Blog post translation from Reddit is more accurate in text.
Why don't hearthstone devs increase the chances of getting a legendary card? If you don't get a legendary card in a pack, keep increasing the legendary percentage chance; once you get a legendary, reset it back to the original '5%' rate.
That is exactly how it works, according to this article.
I have the same rate, but nice to know
this is how it works
A simple understanding of statistics and a good understanding what probability really means should mitigate those feelings.
"I knew it!" -Doomsayer
The truth?
I don't understand what your issue is. Golden card rates would have been nice, but we have so much data, of course we know. However, chinese law required that they officially make this post. And they made it with accurate information provided in an easily understood manner. Absolutely nothing that people should 'rage' about.
I don't understand your rage. What else are they supposed to explain?
They should be publishing something like this:
https://steam.shadowverse.com/drawrates?pack_id=10002
Now THAT is statistical transparency. This Blizzard "explanation" is trash.
Fascinating...
Why is there no information about golden cards?
People die if they get killed! Water makes wet! You know nothing, John Snow!
Literally Blizzard "playin us like a damn fiddle"...
over 70 packs and 2 legendary.
why...