For me it almost matches 1-for-1 with the only exception being Milhouse, which I heavily played before he got buffed (and then nerfed).
As of the recent additions, Malygos is by far my favorite hero in the game and I'll pick him now now matter what, so he'll probably be the one true offset in a some time until he'll probably be first on both.
They do - Jaraxxus is most played and I have most wins with him. I appreciate he's not that good and forces Demons, but Demons is my favorite tribe in BG and I have no problem being forced to use them.
When it comes to wins/played ratio, it's Rafaam for me.