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    posted a message on Demon Hunter was a failure.
    Quote from Psy_Kik >>

    Constructed has always just been a race to the most broken thing you can first. I mean you mention graveyard manipualtion?...Like that is what the game needs, more rez priest? ...more massive mana cheated minions all at once?

    Atleast Demon Hunter is relatively honest in that respect - its fast and efficient (which is it's identity, for what its worth) and does everything fairly well, but it doesn't slap you from out of nowhere like a lot of the other classes.

    It absolutely does slap you in the face - quite literally.  I just played a game where I have a 6/12 on the board with lifesteal (and 30 health).  He cleared it, developed a board (5/5) and did 12 damage to my face all for "8" mana. 

    I think that's the main issue with the class at the moment (as I see it). 

    He also drew 10 more cards than me during that game (which probably lasted a whole 11 turns) but that's a whole other issue with the classes.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Demon Hunter was a failure.

    Full disclosure - I hate the DH class, but always try to be impartial and objective in things, so here's my two cents.

    What counts as a failure?  Plenty people play it, so it's no a failure on that front.  If you assume there's only a small number of deck arcehtypes (control, aggro, tempo, combo) there's no reason to think that it would (or should) be different from those.  The issue in this regard is that the only viable deck appears to be tempo (but is that any different from priest who can only really play control?).

    Where I think it does fall down (aside from the OP cards that I still think remain) is that the random generated cards might be too predictable.  Take Cobalt Spellkin - he only has a choice of 6 spells which gives a pretty good chance of getting whatever you were looking for.   Compare that with mage who has 12 one mana cards (discounting quests) in standard and you can see where the issue lies.  Aside from SHaman (who only has 7 one mana spells in standard) all the other classes have much more variability.

    I think this limited deck choice create the main issue with the class.  They just don't have enough cards to flesh out some other decent decks.  I would love for "big demon" DH to be a thing, but it isn't.  There just aren't enough cards to make it work.

    I think after a couple of expansions and a few nerfs cough * Skull of Gul'dan, Blade Dance * cough it will seem like it's just another class.

    I do think the one mana hero power might problematic in the future though. Its fine balance wise compared to all the others, but it probably pushes the class too far towards tempo based decks in the same way that the hunter hero power pushes decks towards the aggro/face decks. That in itself might limit the options for the class.

     

     

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on The RNG mechanism isn't really Random?
    Quote from OldenGolden >>

    Boy, people do love the phrase "confirmation bias" on this site, don't they? So much easier than actually considering the possibility that the way "random" is programmed could be something other than true random. The best is when they want you to have documentation on 10000 games played to support your theory, whereas they just throw "confirmation bias" out there for everything without actually looking into anything.

    I think it IS ridiculous to get that many Kargaths, and that it very likely has something to do with the way it is programmed. Dunno why people think that's so far-fetched.

    The only way to disprove the idea of confirmation bias would be to collect a large enough sample of data to do an analysis on.  I'm not going to do that.  You're also just throwing out "deliberate programming" without actually looking into it.  While I don't have any idea about how Blizzard code their random stuff I suspect it's something as simple as:

    1) create database susbset containing all possiblities for the given constraint (i.e. minion costing 4 mana)

    2) count the number of entries in that subset

    3) generate "random" number within the bounds of the number of entries

    4) return the minion selected.

    How the system generates the random part is anyones guess and only Blizzard really know, but there are lots of ways to generate random (or psuedo random) numbers. My suspicion is that they've used the easiest because if you were asked to code something like that why wouldn't you do the easiest thing?  Sure you could make an arugment that they've biased it to make cool cards occure more often in the hope that people craft/buy them, but again, no one but Blizzard knows.

    I've pasted the first paragraph from Wiki on ramdom numbers in case anyone is interested. 

    Random number generation (RNG) is a process which, through a device, generates a sequence of numbers or symbols that cannot be reasonably predicted better than by a random chance. Random number generators can be true hardware random-number generators (HRNGS), which generate random numbers as a function of current value of some physical environment attribute that is constantly changing in a manner that is practically impossible to model, or pseudo-random number generators (PRNGS), which generate numbers that look random, but are actually deterministic, and can be reproduced if the state of the PRNG is known.

     

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on The RNG mechanism isn't really Random?
    Quote from Geoff >>
    Quote from lv426a11 >>

    I believe this is called confirmation bias and that, counterintuitively, the odds aren't actually 1 in 10000 but only 1 in 100. 

     You are actually mixing two things. Of course every single occurrence of the card played is a 1/100 to get a specific result. But for having two of the same result twice in a row odds aren't actually 1/100, just because every roll is a separate one. Yes, you have always 50% chance to hit tails or heads with a coin flip and it's not like 5 tails in a row increase a chance to get heads next time. And if you hit Kargath on a first roll, you still have the same odds - 1/100 - to roll it for the second time in a row. You are right. But the actual odds of getting 5 tails in a row aren't 50% and neither having two Kargaths from the Portal is 1/100. It's actually much less.

    Granted, this proves nothing, because unless chances are literal, definitive 0% everything can happen so judging entire algorithm of Hearthstone's RNG just by one unlikely occurrence is very inappropriate. 

    I'm not sure I am mixing two things (but as I said I'm not a statistician).  My point about confirmation bias is that you only take note of the first event after it already occurs - in this example you or your opponent get a Kargath.  Because that event has already happened (and you aren't noticing all the times when you didn't get Kargath) you cant include it in the overall calculation for two Kargaths to be drawn. 

    This is different from the idea of "inheriting" odds from the previous outcome (e.g. toin coss multiple times).  It's true that each event is independant from those that came before (i.e tossing 6 heads in a row does not change the odds of the outcome for the 7th coin toss, which is still 50/50) however the odds of tossing 7 heads in a row before you throw the first coin can still be calculated. 

    To make a coin analogy of what I'm saying, if you randomly toss coins all the time but only really pay attention after you get 4 heads in a row, you might believe that your coin is baised when you end up flipping that 5th head in a row, because to you it would seem like it's happening more often that it should.  In reality it's because you don't remember all those occassion when you didn't get 5 in a row.

    Have a read of the psychic octopus paper I mentioned - that's the essence of what I understand is discussed in there (and he is a statistician).

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on The RNG mechanism isn't really Random?
    Quote from PewPewPiew >>
    Quote from lv426a11 >>

    I believe this is called confirmation bias and that, counterintuitively, the odds aren't actually 1 in 10000 but only 1 in 100.  I'm not a statistician (but I have studies some stats), but the first event "doesn't count" unless you're already looking for it in advance.  The explaination here is that there will be lots of times that the opponent (or you) doesn't get a Kargath, but you don't register and take note of these occurrences because nothing intersting happened.  Once you get the first Kargath you're now interested in what the next one is, but because you only took note when you got Kargath you can't count that first event in the probability.

    I probably haven't explained that very well - like I said I'm not a statistician.

    There was a really interesting article about Paul the psychic octopus (if you remember he was an octopus that predicted world cup scores alledgedly) on the website understanding uncertainty where this phenomenon is explained in more detail than I can understand!

    I get you, I have just read the article about the octopus, nice remark, nice read too. I am not a statistician as well, but I got too much Kargath's in a day, 3 in total and I played 12 games, I did not get Kargath 6 times.

    So I played 9 times Netherwind Portal today, 3 times it gave me Kargath today. That just feels too much to be random, because for me it is 1 to 3 (33%), considering each time the odds this happening is 1/100 if you are waiting for it.

    I am buying a lottery ticket as we speak :-)

    The guy who published it (David Spiegelhalter) has a really interesting take when it comes to stats.  I saw him speak once at an epidemiology lecture (and he also does stuff for the BBC in the UK) and he has a really nice way of making things understandable while you're listening.   

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on The RNG mechanism isn't really Random?

    I believe this is called confirmation bias and that, counterintuitively, the odds aren't actually 1 in 10000 but only 1 in 100.  I'm not a statistician (but I have studies some stats), but the first event "doesn't count" unless you're already looking for it in advance.  The explaination here is that there will be lots of times that the opponent (or you) doesn't get a Kargath, but you don't register and take note of these occurrences because nothing intersting happened.  Once you get the first Kargath you're now interested in what the next one is, but because you only took note when you got Kargath you can't count that first event in the probability.

    I probably haven't explained that very well - like I said I'm not a statistician.

    There was a really interesting article about Paul the psychic octopus (if you remember he was an octopus that predicted world cup scores alledgedly) on the website understanding uncertainty where this phenomenon is explained in more detail than I can understand!

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Wrenchcalibur & Soulshard Lapidary

    I had a whole thread about the lack of fun related to Bomb warrior so you have my support from that side of things. 

    As for Soulshard lapidary I think there are two issues.  First off - In any other class that would be a 3 card combo over two turns which wouldn't happen all that often, but DH has so much card draw they nearly always have the cards for the combo which makes it very difficuly to get any minions to stick at all. 

    The second issue is that the soul shards (imo) are too easy to put in the deck; there's really no downside to them at all and they generally don't need to be "managed" in any meaningful way.  I think it would have been interesting if a) some of the soul shard cards had only added one shard to reduce the number in the deck and make it more like a resource, or B) if they had added cards to hand that you either used for healing or got consumed to power the soul shard effects.  You would then need to manage cards in hand and wouldn't want too many in at any one time, but obviously they might need tweaking (and there have never been any problems with zero mana cards.../s)  This comment also relates to warlock but obvioulsy there aren't many top tier warlock decks at the moment.

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Issue against Bomb Warrior

    You could always stick in Lightforged Blessing.   It would give you 4 spells for additional healing with Lady Liadrin.  Other than that try to keep a 1 health dude on the board to play around bladestorm.  They don't generally run silence so you can be pretty carefree with buffs, but you sometimes want to hold off just make sure you can get your Libram of Hope from Liadrin.

    Posted in: Paladin
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    posted a message on Disapointed in Hearthstone now
    Quote from Platy >>

    1) I agree of course weapon removals reduce win rates against non weapon class, but your initial message was that they reduce win rates against "every other deck". Hence, I prove you wrong as there are tons of many other decks which run weapons aside from bomb warriors. In fact, all aggro decks run weapons (DH, warrior and Rogue). Stickyfinger works great as it makes that 4/2 pirate useless until they find a 2nd weapon. Even if they already swung the weapon once, it is still great to remove it to prevent them from using upgrade. Using ooze against 4/2 weapons of DH or paladin also means you healed yourself 4 damage. 

    3) I played my fair share of warriors as I have played priest to legend for past few seasons. As you said, only deathwing is big. Priest is a control class that have multiple ways of dealing with one tiny minion. The real damage from bomb warriors come from swinging that wrench or drawing bombs. Hence if you managed to sticky wrench away, or ooze it multiple times, the various upgrade cards are all useless. Raise dead helps to give you back more ooze and zephyr. 

    I actually said "pretty much every other deck" so if we're being pedantic the "pretty much" part could exlude the weapon wielding decks :P

    In response to number 3 - those multiple ways of removing minions.  They all cost cards which you cant afford to use if you're trying to burn all the bombs.  And the sticky finger can already have missed his first target if the warrior goes second as he can play the weapon on 3 and have it destroyed before you can play the kobold.  I'm not saying you can't win against this deck (and that statement is true for all the decks I listed), just that it's an uninteractive and gimmicky deck.  From my experience bomb warrior is one of the worst match ups for priest.

    Also - part of the point of this thread was me pointing how I feel the game has become un-interactive.  You've pretty much summed up the most uninteractive strategy there can be in response to one of the uninterative decks.  Do nothing and heal face (not that it works particularly effectively imo.)

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Disapointed in Hearthstone now
     

     1) Weapon removals do not reduce winrates against every other deck. DH is another annoying aggro deck with multiple weapons, + paladin and hunters to a certain extend. 

    2) Zephyr is a 3rd weapon removal which you can use before the 2nd bomb goes into your deck. Hence, you have 3 cards to mulligan for when you face warriors.

    3) Except for gala warrior and Dr bomb, bomb warriors have no means to attack face, hence it is pretty safe to just hold 10 cards and heal till fatigue. They will fatigue faster since you have bombs in your deck. 

    1) Weapon removals abosultely reduce win rates against non-weapon decks otherwise everyone would use them.  They're not even that effective against most weapon decks these days either due to the pirate who puts the destroyed weapon back.  Also, most decks running weapons have multiple weapons.  Most decks running tech only run a single card.  The weapon will nearly always get one charge off as well which means you only destroy "half" a weapon most of the time (the exception being hunters and their infinite weapons).

    2) Zephyrs is a card to muligan for and if you don't get him a dead card due to multiple bombs in the deck.  In any case it's not even that effective as the destroyed weapon just gets put back in hand by the two pirates.

    3) You obviously haven't played against bomb warrior as they have plenty of minions that can go face if left alive (and many weapons that do that too).  Aside from Deathwing these aren't super powerful minions, but you still have to answer them or you'll definitely lose.   You're correct that they fatigue faster but not for the reason you mention (as the bombs basically dont affect card count).  They have card draw - you (as a priest) do not.  The weapon swings alone can often do enough damage to kill you with a total of 24 damage from face swinging alone (assuming one pirate and 2 weapons).  This can easily be increased with corsair cache, Dr Krastinov, Upgrade and another pirate. 

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Disapointed in Hearthstone now
    Quote from Platy >>
    Quote from lv426a11

    Warrior - two varients Bomb and Big.  Bomb warrior is close to turtle mage in terms of interaction.  Remove minions, place bombs, repeat and hopefully watch the oponent slowly die with nothing they can do - bnous points if the weapon attack goes face.  Big variant - cheat out large minions early.  Doesn't work very well in the current meta and is also heavily dependant on the order you draw your cards.

    Rogue - mostly face. Deck strategy - me go face and draw my whole deck.  You cant target my minions so they nearly all get one attack in on your face.  I never run out of cards in hand, but sometimes I still like to draw more through the secret passage. You play taunt - me sap and go face.  Did I mention I go face

    Funny why people keep saying there is nothing you can do against bomb warriors. I play highlander priest and I win by teching in both ooze and sticky fingers. Sticky finger is better than ooze as the weapon stolen is not considered as destroyed so opponents cannot get it back via the 4/2 pirate. There are also cards that you can use to get rid of bombs in your deck. And lastly, as a priest the easiest solution is to fill your hand and just watch cards burn. Especially after gala, you can play a card and generate a card every turn, while maintaining full hand.

    Rogue is easy. Just use aoe. Who said you cannot target means u must take damage. 

    So re: bomb warrior - you add two cards which lower your winrate against pretty much every other deck one of which you absolutely have to draw and play by turn 5 to make it worthwhile (and have no means to do so as priest).  Sounds like a top strategy to me.  I've even used Wyrmrest Purifier in priest against bomb warrior and while it can help you still need to draw it and it's difficult to use effectively as they have potential for so many bombs and it's a completely dead/detrimental card in every other matchup.  I will say though, watching for the puzzled pause after they drop Blastmaster Boom after you've used Wyrmrest Purifier is very satisfying.  Using Galakrond for Priest is pretty much the only strategy you have as priest against bomb warrior and even then you need to draw Gala early as you can't build a hand and answer board threats at the same time (and if you don't have Galakrond you're just burning cards and can't play any, which probably means the ooze and stickyfinger you teched in are getting burned.)

    As for Rogue and AoE - of course you can use AoE but unless the rogue is saving up stealthed minions for card draw with Greyheart Sage they're still going to get a hit in (unless you use your AoE on a single minion which is a waste imo).

     

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Disapointed in Hearthstone now

    To all the people saying stop playing - that's obviously an option for everyone and may be what I choose to do.  But that's not to say I shouldn't be alllowed to have a discussion.  Also, maybe I have a diffent definition of "salt" but I don't feel this is a salt thread.  I'm not complaining about an "OP" card that I happened to lose to and I'm not particularly angry about losing against these decks (and often I beat these decks).  My point is just that I think Hearthstone seems to be moving towards becoming a psuedo single player game where your actions matter less than your opponents.

    As for the people discussing RNG and saying I should play chess, I don't mind a little RNG, particularly the sort of RNG that can be "controlled".  For example, Rag could be played around by loading your board with minions to make it less likely he hits the best target.  I am absolutely not talking about card draw RNG, which for most classes can be mitigated by including card draw and building a balanced deck. 

    What I dislike is the "discovered by" >  "discovered by" > etc.  You get the idea.  It's not a rare occurence and while I'm sure it mixes things up for the person playing the cards (or the viewers if the game is being streamed), it's extremely un-fun to play against.  You can't play around it, there's no skill aspect to it and it can turn a game on it's head just like that.  As I said before I think a degree of RNG is OK but the extent to which games can be decided now by who generated the best cards is daft. 

    Finally - to the person who said that we have a diverse meta and I'm complaining - I'm not complaining about the diversity of the classes represented, and obviously the ideal scenario would be to have a balanced distribution of classes in every meta.  But let me ask you - if all classes are represented in the meta and they're all playing aggro does that represent success?  To me we have a situation similar to that at the moment.  A mix of gimmicky, highroll, uninteractive decks and face decks. 

     

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Disapointed in Hearthstone now
    Quote from Nevermore00 >>

    All I can say is you really point out the negative perspective on all the decks you mentioned (pretty much the meta) but I enjoy a couple of those decks and in my opinion is varied enough that when I play my deck I am usually going to face multiple decks.  Can you name a time in hearthstone that you didn't face a bunch of either overpowering control or aggro that ended up being fairly dominant?  I'll say this, hearthstone has always been hearthstone and while some elements have grown or diminished, there will always be the ability to be negative and find it unenjoyable (I took 3 months off and came back a short time ago). So step away.  Nobody is forcing you to play.  Voice your complaints (like this), discuss as you like, but since they plan stuff out well in advance, nothing is going to change much for half a year, so check back in and see if it's fun for you. Otherwise, do something else with your time.

    I pointed out the negatives of these decks because imo that's pretty much all they are - negative.  Almost all the decks have a gimmick which is extremely un-fun to play against.  Can anyone honestly say they enjoy watching a mage play twenty 0 mana spells then re-fill their hand with random spells all while freezing or destroying your board?  What about a druid ramping into guardian animals while you're on turn 4?  There's no skill and no interaction.  Face rogue - you cant attack their minions and you minions mostly dont matter.  Bomb warrior - kill them before the bombs kill you? 

    I actually think Hearthstone has historically been pretty good at balancing the control/aggro relationship. Sure there were some blips, but even when face hunter was a thing there was some usable neutral healing and hunters did run out of resources (after the starving buzzard nerf).  Maybe this is all rose coloured glasses though.

    It's true you could focus on a deck you enjoy and concede when you meet decks which you know will stomp all over you.  But what's the point?  You're not really playing the game and part of the enjoyment for me has always been about trying to tune my decks to adapt to the meta.  The way hearthstone is at the moment part of that tuning is often to play a different class entirely and have a race to the face.  That's probably the most consistent way to play now.

     

    Posted in: General Discussion
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    posted a message on Disapointed in Hearthstone now

    Did you read it - it's clearly not a salt thread.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 11

    posted a message on Disapointed in Hearthstone now

    First off - this isn't a salt thread so if all you're going to do is post a reply with a link to the salt thread then please don't bother.  This isn't about one deck or card being OP, more about the general tone of the game.

    The main point is that I'm pretty disappointed with the direction this game has taken.  So much of what made Hearthstone Hearthstone is gone, and winning and losing seems more and more like some crazy coin flip. It feels like there's very little interactivity and too many games end up being decided by random events.  Take aggro.  It used to be that you had to manage the minions on board, play around board clears and keep some resources in hand in case there was a board reset.   Now - you just dump your hand and endlessly re-fill your hand.  Board clears have been power creeped by minions so you don't need to worry too much about those any more.  In contrast control is mostly absent because the excessive resources avialable to aggro overwhelm the available removal.

    Look at the decks which have made up the recent meta and you can see they all either have some cheesy gimick that makes them viable or they can draw their whole deck in 10 turns.  You can also see there are almost no control decks.  I've highlighted some them below but feel free to disagree.

    Mage - full RNG whether it be mana cyclone mage or highlander mage.   Whether it be a board full of 5/5's and 8/8's on turn 4 or a clutch Reno spell to turn the game RNG is the key.  Don't expect to attack with your minions either - they're too cold...Turtle mage (now dead) was also a blast to play against. 

    Hunter - mostly aggro/face these days.  Drop your hand and go face.  Use snowballing tempo tools to make some highly effecient mana plays to stop your opponent doing anything (via secrets/hero power combo).  Refill hand with voracious reader when resources are low.

    Demon Hunter - I only see soul shard DH.  Hit face every turn while removing every minion the opponent plays and doing stupidly large burst damage/mininon removal/healing at the same time.  Refill hand at will and draw entire deck by turn 10.

    Paladin - mosly libram/pure/broom - Despite all the hate paladin generated I don't actually feel this deck is too bad.  It lacks draw and can run out of resources but can also steamroll you if the minions stick.  Doesn't really do anything super cheesy appart from Argent Bragart and Lady Liadrin. Still has potential for RNG through Lightforged Crusader

    Priest - res or Gala - both feel gimicky and are influenced heavily by card draw RNG (as priest has essentially no card draw) and "created by" RNG.  Neither is fun to play against (and I say this as a former priest main) and winning is often a result of genrating the right resource at the right time (or because your opponent fell asleep). The mirror match up is a clown fiesta of the highest order!

    Warrior - two varients Bomb and Big.  Bomb warrior is close to turtle mage in terms of interaction.  Remove minions, place bombs, repeat and hopefully watch the oponent slowly die with nothing they can do - bnous points if the weapon attack goes face.  Big variant - cheat out large minions early.  Doesn't work very well in the current meta and is also heavily dependant on the order you draw your cards.

    Rogue - mostly face. Deck strategy - me go face and draw my whole deck.  You cant target my minions so they nearly all get one attack in on your face.  I never run out of cards in hand, but sometimes I still like to draw more through the secret passage. You play taunt - me sap and go face.  Did I mention I go face?

    Shaman - do people play shaman?

    Druid - I think we all know what the gimicky druid deck is/was (maybe dead now?).  The next one will be just as gimicky though with mountseller.  Oh - it also draw's it's whole deck by turn 10 with extra bonus dragons thrown in for good measure.

    Warlock - I haven't really seen a warlock on the ladder since the new expac.  Prior to this it was mostly quest OTK which removed all minions, drew it's whole deck and OTK'd -  the height of interactivity.

     

     

    Posted in: General Discussion
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