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- Leaga
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Last active Thu, Apr, 25 2024 10:48:34 -
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4
Mulligan winrate is one of the most, if not the absolute most, volatile statistics available on hsreplay. Don't read it as high mulligan winrate means keep in the mulligan. That is incorrect. Dont think that Liam's mulligan winrate being high means that if you play him early you have a better chance at winning. That is incorrect. High mulligan winrate means that over the sample taken when Liam was in the opening hand the winrate was high. Nothing more, nothing less.
"Why is that distinction important?" you may ask... well, look at his kept percentage. He is only kept ~20% of the time. Which means that people are not keeping him in the mulligan unless they have a pretty good hand already. Keep in mind, if he is in your opening hand and you win the game but never played him then his mulligan winrate just went up, his drawn winrate just went up, his played winrate was unaffected. Considering his low played winrate, dont you think it is safe to assume that his mulligan winrate is inflated by the value of the other cards in hand and not actually by the value of playing him?
This isn't to say that an early Liam won't increase your chance to win. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. I've not played with the card enough to know and I'm sure the answer to that question is matchup dependent. My point is that you can't look at statistics with hard rules; statistics need to be interpreted. For instance, with a 43% played winrate, playing the card seems to decrease your chance of winning. Maybe that's just because of people playing him for tempo in bad situations and then never actually getting the benefit from him. Since his benefit does not come the turn that he is played, it's safe to assume that his played winrate is going to be lower than his actual value. He is almost an inverse example of the skew people always talk about with Leeroy. Leeroy is only played when you're winning the game. Liam is mostly played when you're not already steamrolling your opponent with dudes.
I think I found that list on hsreplay and my interpretation is that the mulligan winrate is abnormally high due to variance on a low sample size. There's only 3100 games played with the list. Assuming he is in the opening mulligan 1/10 of the time, people only keep him 1/5 of that time and he shows up in opening hand post-mulligan (but is still included in mulligan WR since mulligan = opening hand on hsreplay) another 1/10 (an overly large estimate by my guess but I'm not going to go do the math): there's only ~350 games where he was in the opening hand and its safe to assume that at least 64 of them were great hands. That said, the list is extremely heavy on 1-drops and Liam's drawn winrate is relatively high as well so even if it normalizes over a larger sample size, it may still be positive. I may even agree that with this list its correct to keep Liam in the mulligan. The deck's effectiveness will drop off heavily as all those 1-cost cards become worse and worse topdecks.
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Since your post was fairly generic about what you find fun, it sounds to me like you just don't want to be playing something popular. Which btw, I dont fault you for. Sometimes I tryhard meta decks, sometimes I build homebrews. Play what you find fun, brother. However, all you said was that you don't want to smorc your enemy down and since one of the best decks in the meta right now is control Warlock, clearly you don't need to be playing off-meta Tier 3/4+ decks like Quest Druid and Divine Shield Paladin to play something that isn't just smorc. So, by the definition of not-popular decks being fun, no the top meta deck has never been fun. Because that's what a meta is; It's just whats popular to play. If you are more specific about what you find fun and what you don't find fun then maybe there is a discussion to be had but from where I'm sitting it sounds like you would never be happy with any meta.
We've had just about every kind of deck be powerful enough to warp the meta. Aggro (Face Hunter), Combo (Razakus Priest), Control (Warlock, right now), Midrange (Secret Paladin), OTK (Miracle Rogue way back before the Leeroy/Auctioneer nerfs), Ramp (Force/Roar druids back before Force of Nature was nerfed). It's all a matter of your outlook on what's fun, not a question of if different styles of decks can be popular.
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To all those complaining about how few Witchwood cards are in these decks:
First, one of these only runs one new card and yet is a completely new style of deck. Never have we been able to flood the board the way odd paladin does. One new card spawned an entire archetype and revived cards that haven't seen meta play since beta (ie Sword of Justice, Stormwind Champion). That's a much bigger impact than you are giving it credit for.
Second, of course mostly refined decks that only sub a few new cards are going to be top for the first weekend because, and lets see if you can track the logic on this, the decks are already mostly refined. Just because these are the best decks for the first few days does not mean they are the best decks. It means that they were the easiest to optimize. Which totally makes sense if you think critically for 5 freakin seconds. A deck with a lot of new cards needs a lot of experimenting and refinement before it will perform well. A deck without a lot of new cards doesn't. Shocker.
Third, lets look at some cards that haven't seen meta play in the last year and are in the above lists because of WW: Mindbreaker, (post-nerf) Bonemare, Psychic Scream in Spiteful Priest, Tortollan Shellraiser, Archmage Antonidas in a non-combo deck, Breath of Sindragosa, Ironbeak Owl, Blessing of Might, Light's Justice, and the aforementioned Sword of Justice and Stormwind Champion. Most of those aren't just in the lists because of rotation. They are meta calls adapting to the strengths of the new decks.
The above decks "only" containing 10 new cards is the worst measuring stick for the impact WItchwood has had over the last 4 days. Think critically for a minute and you might be able to figure that out for yourself.
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Did you not play during Azure Drake's reign as the only playable 5-drop? Decks without spells were playing it for a 5 mana 4/4 draw a card. This is +1/+1 for the cost of elemental synergy.
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I can confirm that Blade of C'thun with Brann on the field used to kill the minion and double buff C'thun so I think the double buff will work that way. I haven't tried it since the mechanics update though so who knows.
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Sounds like you've never actually been scammed. You should count yourself lucky in life if getting what you paid for makes you feel like you've been scammed. That's a gift in and of itself. Life's all about how you look at things and this is an opportunity to realize how lucky you really are. Feel cheated or feel great about yourself. It's your choice.
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I think a part of why Rogue is such a tempo class is because the hero power drops off in value in the mid/late game. Being able to use your face to defend your minions is powerful but you often can't do it against 4+ attack minions with how little healing is in the class. A weapon like this that will lower your tempo when played but then allow your generated cards to extend your ability to use weapon charges as removal changes that dynamic.
You're right that it will require a decent amount of support cards (and I think I made that clear in my post), but I think you may be over exaggerating how much. That may just be because we build decks differently. It sounds like our Burgle Rogues have been quite different. I dont like Ethereal Peddler/Obsidian Shard as build around cards, because you have to play lower tempo cards that generate value to get a high tempo play. That just doesn't make sense to me. You've already given up tempo, how is getting a small burst of it now going to swing the game? If I'm throwing a bunch of lower tempo, value generating cards in then I want synergy cards to help me take advantage of that value, not just make up for the tempo loss. Spectral Cutlass does that. It's a value tool that actually helps enable you to take advantage of other value tools. In theory, I'd much rather run that in a burgle rogue than tempo plays.
The question is going to be whether getting weapon buffs on the thing is going to be prohibitively clunky because clearly it's base stats alone aren't going to cut it. But imo, it plays into the Burgle Rogue gameplan better than any Burgle-synergy card up until this point.
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I'm certainly not saying that this will be a tier 1 meta card. Even a tier 2 meta card. But it's much much better than people are giving it credit for.
Combined with Deadly Poison and some other kind of weapon buff tempo minion similar to Naga Corsair (which might not come for a set or two, but I expect it to come at some point in the lifespan of this card) and a decent sized card generation package (which we also need to see in set releases before it starts getting good because of how much is being rotated but I expect at least 1 if not 2 in WW after seeing this card) and this will allow Rogue to keep trading into the mid/late game. If that becomes possible, admittedly a decent sized if, then it totally changes the playstyle that a Rogue can attempt.
This card is really really bad with what we know is in standard right now but it has 5 and 2/3's worth of expansions still to come that could make it a viable build-around card. I'm a weird homebrewer who plays some admittedly bad decks on ladder, but I'm calling it now; At some point in Spectral Cutlass' standard lifetime I will push for legend with it as the centerpiece of my deck.
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It's certainly not worse than Counterfeit Coin when you have those dead draws of x2 Prep, x2 Counterfeit Coin in the top 10 cards. Proactively managing the board is a tremendous upside for the cardslot. The question is whether gating the coin itself behind these requirements will be a manageable goal.
It seems to be better in matchups that Miracle usually struggles with and worse in matchups they are targeting. So itll be really interesting to see if it actually finds a home or not.
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ts an interesting and difficult to use card that actually takes tempo away from a deck that wants high tempo and can be countered. If Rebuke is meta then Paladin will have a weakness because it'll be a dead card in board-focused matchups. There is actually a downside (besides drawing it off curve) to a card that aggro can utilize. What more could you want?
Sounds like you just wouldn't have been happy unless there were zero aggro cards in the expansion.
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