Hearthpwn

Quote from RealGambler jump

Dark Wisper instead of Dark Whisper

Thanks!

Since, unfortunately, the formulas do not work when exporting to openoffice, and I don't know if this might be the case for other spreadsheet programs - here's the old version with simple formulas, in case you encounter this problem:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GhqNiBv453OozFX3Fts6orc3wH5sfMmmkNPCjM7nfoE/edit#gid=191287612

Well, great thanks to Dinaverg, new formula's are in - should be even more accurate now in determining which packs are best!

Quote from Nikos_the_great jump

There's an error with the calculations, I believe. I'm not very good at explaining so bear with me here.

I'll try to explain with an example as it's the easiest and clearest way.

Let's say there are 50 total epics in a set, so 25 different cards, and I'm missing 2. The chance that a pack has an epic I'm missing will always be (2/50 x 23.14)%, which is 0.92% per pack. And that's true, if those two cards are the same, because it's (1/25 x 23.14)%, which is accurate because that's what I'm missing.

But what if the two cards I'm missing are different? Isn't the chance to find a card you're missing in a pack double, which is 1.84%? Because it doesn't matter if you're missing one or two of the same card, the chance to find them is the same (the chance to find them both in a pack is taken into account in 23.14). So each individual card should always count as 2/50, regardless of if you're missing one or two of them. In that line of thought, missing two different cards would be (4/50 x 23.14)=1.84%.

To implement this into excel, you'd have to see it the other way, meaning you'd do the calculations taking into account only one of each card and ignore every bracket that has a duplicate name with another. Or if that's too difficult, make two different lists of cards, A and B that have the same cards, and ask people to delete cards from B first and only take into account A's percentages.

Hopefully you understood what I meant, thanks for reading and keep up the good work!

Oh I see what you're thinking.

You're saying that if I miss Brawl and Shield Slam, and there's 100 different epic cards, that now you have a 2% chance to get a card you're missing.
But when I miss Brawl x2, and there's 100 different epic cards, that now I have a 1% chance to get a card I'm missing

Could be true, but I don't think I can ignore same named fields.

Also, I think the discrepancy is incredibly marginal.

Thirdly it's not true for legendary cards, since you can only obtain 1 of them.

If you figure out the formula to fix it I will add it. I'm not going to add multiple rows and make the sheet more complicated - less user friendly, to fix a discrepancy of 1%.

Also, if you really want to break your brain - here's a fun one for you.

What's the chance that after getting 98 epic out of 100 epic cards, you are left missing 2x the same card, instead of 2 different cards?

Quote from Dinaverg jump

Mm, wanted to argue with nikos, but thinking about it he may be right. for each individual rolled epic, it's more likely if the cards are different. 

I don't think that's true.

The way I've learned it:
Say you get 2 epic cards.You roll your first epic card, it has a 1/100 chance to be Brawl, example given.
Then you roll your second epic card, does it now have less chance (or as you put it, is it now less likely?, to roll brawl?
No, chance is still 1/100.

Quote from AUzg jump

Hi, thx BHTrix...I don't really care for the percentages the poster above me mentioned (although it would be best if they are correct :P), I just like your spreadsheet for keeping up with what I have and don't have in an easy way...

I just wanted to say I found a spelling error, Mechenical Yeti :P 

thank you once again, very useful stuff :)

Good spot! thanks! fixed it.

Quote from Zentol0 jump

Hi all, I am new to the forum!

I would like to comment an error that you are making on calculating the total chance of getting in a pack a card that you are missing.

For example, imagine that someone is begging his/her collection so the chances of getting a missing card of each type are (I have just made up the numbers):

• Legendary: 5%
• Epic: 20%
• Rare: 80%
• Common: 60%

According to the spreadsheet, the total chance of getting a missing card, independly of the type, is:

• Total chance of getting a missing card: 5%+20%+80%+60%=165%  (wrong)

However, this is wrong. These chances are not independent among them so they cannot be added directly. Besides, probabilities should never exceed 100%.

The correct way of calculating that is tho calculate the probabilities of NOT getting a card that you are missing of each tipe, that is, the opposites of the previous probabilities:

• Legendary: 100% - 5% = 95%
• Epic: 100% - 20% = 80%
• Rare: 100% - 80% = 20%
• Common: 100% - 60% = 40%

With this, you can calculate the probability of not getting any card that you are missing, that is, the chances of not getting a legendary card AND not getting an epic card AND not getting a rare card AND not getting a common card. To calculate this probability, we have to MULTIPLY.

• Total chance of NOT getting a missing card: 95% x 80% x 20% x 40% = 6.08% 

The chance of getting a card that you are missing is the opposite of that.

• Total chance of getting a missing card: 100% - 6.08% = 95.92%   (correct)

I hope that this is helpful.

Thanks for the work done!

You forgot to take into account that a new card pack consists of 5 cards, not 1 card. Hence your first pack has a 499% chance to contain new cards, or... as you will - 5 new cards. With a very small chance that your first pack will get duplicates. Your calculations do not take into account getting multiple new cards from a pack. That said, your way of calculating might be better - however it's still missing a piece of the equation.

Also when you find a card, your chances to get a rare/epic or legendary card, do not go down, they remain the same, however - you now have a small chance to get a double - which needs to be deducted. All in all I think the way it's currently done in my spreadsheet is fairly accurate - accurate enough for sure.

I'm however open for improvement.

Found a small bug in the golden dust calculations at the top of the document - it is now resolved.

You can copy paste it into your own document, and it should fix any issues, or you could redownload version 2.

If anyone else finds any bugs, be sure to let me know! I'll fix it as soon as I can.

Ok, version 2.0 is completed.

Changes:
Added card percentages, totals, dust missing at the top of the sheet for clearer view. Thanks to CaioCavalero for the idea.
because of this also removed the totals from the bottom.
Added totals behind each section for quicker view.
And ofcourse - added all the TGT cards!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rZobj5ALRs_7X4tH40Sx1g2h5QexptLifeeobAjorJw/edit?usp=sharing

hope you enjoy!

Quote from Justforcause jump

Addition are you planning on adding the TGT cards in the table, since we already know all of them?

Working on it. Hoping it'll be done by monday since I've got a few busy days ahead.

Cards are basically added just need to fix formula's.

Should be possible, google docs does tend to automatically update formulas if you add stuff in between.

There's a few additions in version 2, make sure you copy paste every addition and it should update just fine.

Haha, ye, almost done.

Version 2 will be uploaded soon :)

Quote from minimat jump

Considering that a pack is 40 dust, you only need 931920/4=232980 packs, if you're beyond unlucky that is.

I believe the average dust in a pack is about 100 btw. :p

Hehe

think it's time for the reveal :p

For regular- (classic + gvg)
There's 53 legendary cards, 126 epic cards, 236 rare cards and 268 uncommon cards. The crafting costs for normal cards are 1600 legendary, 400 epic, 100 for rare and 40 for uncommon. So that's 53*1600, 126*400, 236*100 and 268*40.

Which means - 84800 for the legendary, 50400 for epic, 23600 for rare and 10720 for uncommon.

Totaling in 169520.

This excludes Gelbin Mekkatorgue and Elite Tauren Chieftain, these add another 3200 dust.

So total normal = 172720 dust.

For golden (classic + naxx + gvg + brm)

There's  64 Legendary, 130 Epic, 266 Rare and 334 Uncommon. The crafting cost for Golden cards is 3200 for legendary, 1600 for epic, 800 for rare and 400 for uncommon. Therefor 64*3200, 130*1600, 166*800 and 334*400

That's 204800 for the legendary, 208000 for the epic, 212800 for the rare and 133600 for the uncommon.

Totaling in at 759200.

Combine those two together, and the total crafting cost for a full collection is 931.920 dust.

Which means after TGT we'll be over a million :)

 Therefor DynamischerDiskord with 931.920 was indeed correct :)

Power of Chaos came closest with his guess of 850.000. :)

(edit: small typo, it's 266 rare cards for the golden collection, not 166)

p.s. I am right to say you cannot craft golden Gelbin // ETC ? Else add 6400.

Quote from Thefirestorm83 jump

Quick, someone get 4 copies of every card so we can figure out with the dust button!

If you could disenchant your entire collection with the push of a button, I'm pretty sure there'd be a lot of people complaining on the blizzard forums right now :P