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[gets offered only dumpster tier heroes]
"That's OK; maybe I'll get lucky at the tavern."
[gets garbage tavern offerings]
"No worries, maybe I'll have some easy matchups"
[faces every hero on their power spike turn]
"Well maybe we'll get some good in-battle RNG"
[every attack goes to the worst possible target]
fffffffffffffffffffffff-
I swear this mode just compounds your bad luck when you get a lousy hero.
Trying to go Murlocs with Pyramid. Didn't have any good options on turn one so I bought an acolyte and buffed it the next couple of turns. At 6 mana I found a rockpool hunter and managed to hit a 1/2. After that I proceeded to "hit" a 1/4, 1/5, and 1/7 on the acolyte when every other minion was a Murloc. Would have been a really nice board with +4 coming from the Warleaders if I'd managed to stick those on the Murlocs. Instead I ended up with a 2/22. I think the math comes out to about 0.7% probability.
I've settled on my biggest gripe with the format:
Spawn of N'Zoth. It's just an autobuy on your 5, 6, and 7 mana turns, and if you don't have one you're basically guaranteed to lose those rounds against anybody who does. On top of that, it just strengthens the T1 token options and it's not like we need any more incentive to buy those early on.
It probably becomes unplayable at T3, so it should just get replaced. If they want to keep a neutral deathrattle, maybe swap in Lost Spirit or Dark Cultist.
Hard to scale multiple dragons early. It's a little bit of a shot in the dark for most heroes just hoping that they find a Kalecgos eventually, otherwise it gets outscaled hard. And I dunno that "early" Mama Bear is really a thing aside from off of shifter. That comp usually needs a mid-game carry to get to that transition.
I don't mind the general dynamic you're talking about, though; I think the ability to recognize what your ceiling is in a match and manage risk accordingly is an interesting skill. If you're trying to raise your rating, it's ultimately a numbers game where it's as important to turn those 8th place finishes into 4th place finishes as it is to go 4th to 1st. It forces you to not just think about the few viable end game comps, but to consider what weird menagerie of mediocre, less-than-perfectly synergized minions will keep you alive long enough to outlast half the other players when your chips are down. If that means scaling a Tabbycat up to 30/30, so be it! Hearthstone is at its best when it presents you with these unique scenarios.
I'd say the same about A.F.Kay, Edwin, Rafaam, Nozdormu, Toki, Deryl, and Sir Finley, though. At the end of the day, there's a pretty good chance you'll be offered a very viable hero these days. If they can add/buff 2-3 more to get to that level, I think the game will be in a really good place.
Need to do something about the top end potential of Millhouse, though. There's just no way to out-scale him late game.
The turn 5 and 6 issue should definitely be looked into. Simple solution would be a rule that prevents more than 50% of a given tavern roll's minions from being the same tier. That way when you upgrade on four gold, you're guaranteed two T2 minions on your 5 and 6 gold turns.
If you wanted to keep the highroll potential and more viable options, you could even change that rule to only apply to tiers lower than your current tavern level, so you could still theoretically be given four T2 options on those turns.
They've gotta do something to help Lightfang. I want it to work so badly, but it just comes up short. Going back to +2/+2 might be a bit much. Maybe give it a real body (6/6? 8/8?) or allow it to also buff a non-tribal minion every turn (or keep the 2/2 body and have it buff itself?). It'd be nice to have a viable T5 scaling option other than Brann and Rivendare.
Late game with a Murloc build? Doesn't seem like it. You can slap a divine shield + taunt on the Sneed's at least.
Alright, real salt this time: I'm done with Sneed's Old Shredder for good. I would rather have a @&$%ing Righteous Protector at this point. I just played a round where he spawned Shifter Zerus on three consecutive matches and I lost every one of them to one low stat minion at the end. Took me from about 20 to 0 in a game that I could have easily stabilized in and run away with Murlocs.
Never again. Should have taken the stupid Ironhide Direhorn.
Things that happen 100% of the time to me:
Facing A.F.K. on turn 2 when I pick Rafaam.
Tripling at 9 gold with a full Murloc board and not being given Brann, Bagurgle, or Primalfin Lookout as an option.
Getting down to three players remaining and being the only one who doesn't get a ghost round over the next two matches.
Popping a Mounted Raptor with my final attack only to have it summon a Toxfin.