-40 days til end of Summer. -Not days away from beta as of 5 days ago from last comment about beta release. -Not months away from beta, although that is impossible because there is only 1.3 months before the end of Summer.
These are the percentages of the specific days until the end of Summer starting today Monday, August 12th.
40 days 2.5% 39 days 2.6% 38 days 2.6% 37 days 2.7% 36 days 2.8% 35 days 2.9% (Weekend) Unlikely release 34 days 2.9% (Weekend) Unlikely release 33 days 3.0% 32 days 3.1% 31 days 3.2% 30 days 3.3% 29 days 3.4% 28 days 3.6% (Weekend) Unlikely release 27 days 3.7% (Weekend) Unlikely release 26 days 3.8% 25 days 4.0% 24 days 4.2% 23 days 4.3% 22 days 4.5% 21 days 4.8% (Weekend) Unlikely release 20 days 5.0% (Weekend) Unlikely release 19 days 5.2% 18 days 5.5% 17 days 5.8% 16 days 6.3% 15 days 6.7% 14 days 7.1% (Weekend) Unlikely release 13 days 7.7% (Weekend) Unlikely release 12 days 8.3% 11 days 9.1% 10 days 10% 9 days 11% 8 days 13% 7 days 14% (Weekend) Unlikely release 6 days 17% (Weekend) Unlikely release 5 days 20% 4 days 25% 3 days 33% 2 days 50% 1 day 100% that it will be release by tomorrow. 0 Last day of Summer (Weekend) Unlikely release but if it wasn't yesterday they either delayed it or they moved slightly off schedule.
If we assume they dont release on a weekend it will look like this, Gaps are where the weekends are.
30 days 3.3% 29 days 3.4% 28 days 3.6% 27 days 3.7% 26 days 3.8%
25 days 4.0% 24 days 4.2% 23 days 4.3% 22 days 4.5% 21 days 4.8%
20 days 5.0% 19 days 5.2% 18 days 5.5% 17 days 5.8% 16 days 6.3%
15 days 6.7% 14 days 7.1% 13 days 7.7% 12 days 8.3% 11 days 9.1%
10 days 10% 9 days 11% 8 days 13% 7 days 14% 6 days 17%
5 days 20% 4 days 25% 3 days 33% 2 days 50% 1 day 100% - Friday the 20th the last week day of Summer.
Given this model and the timeline they gave us probably within a month we will see beta. Honestly since it is only 20 days until Pax and Gamescom are over, I would say the first week of September or the last week of August are good estimate for the beta release, each of those days are between the 5-10% range too.
Also considering Blizzcon is 6-7 weeks from the end of Summer and I believe 1-2 weeks is a good amount for open beta to be open, that give 5 weeks for them to ramp up the closed beta, if they decide to release hearthstone at Blizzcon. Which seems very likely because what other news could they possibly have about it if they released it beforehand.
Yeah I am trying not to theorycraft too hard because 1 little change can completely alter all your theories. Anyways I just spent 2 hours putting cards in a word doc so I can print them out on card stock and I can play with my buds, shows how bored I am lol. The irony about this is that I'll probably get a beta invite the second I print all this stuff out and make it look nice =P And yeah I know about cockatrice it's just that digitally keeping track of everything is weird to me after I played magic for like 10 years. Cockatrice just isn't my thing, Now don't get me wrong it isn't the digital part, it is the making sure you and your enemy do everything you need to in one turn, I just felt overwhelmed keeping track. Thank god hearthstone does everything automatically for you haha.
What we know about beta release as of now.
-40 days til end of Summer.
-Not days away from beta as of 5 days ago from last comment about beta release.
-Not months away from beta, although that is impossible because there is only 1.3 months before the end of Summer.
These are the percentages of the specific days until the end of Summer starting today Monday, August 12th.
40 days 2.5%
39 days 2.6%
38 days 2.6%
37 days 2.7%
36 days 2.8%
35 days 2.9% (Weekend) Unlikely release
34 days 2.9% (Weekend) Unlikely release
33 days 3.0%
32 days 3.1%
31 days 3.2%
30 days 3.3%
29 days 3.4%
28 days 3.6% (Weekend) Unlikely release
27 days 3.7% (Weekend) Unlikely release
26 days 3.8%
25 days 4.0%
24 days 4.2%
23 days 4.3%
22 days 4.5%
21 days 4.8% (Weekend) Unlikely release
20 days 5.0% (Weekend) Unlikely release
19 days 5.2%
18 days 5.5%
17 days 5.8%
16 days 6.3%
15 days 6.7%
14 days 7.1% (Weekend) Unlikely release
13 days 7.7% (Weekend) Unlikely release
12 days 8.3%
11 days 9.1%
10 days 10%
9 days 11%
8 days 13%
7 days 14% (Weekend) Unlikely release
6 days 17% (Weekend) Unlikely release
5 days 20%
4 days 25%
3 days 33%
2 days 50%
1 day 100% that it will be release by tomorrow.
0 Last day of Summer (Weekend) Unlikely release but if it wasn't yesterday they either delayed it or they moved slightly off schedule.
If we assume they dont release on a weekend it will look like this, Gaps are where the weekends are.
30 days 3.3%
29 days 3.4%
28 days 3.6%
27 days 3.7%
26 days 3.8%
25 days 4.0%
24 days 4.2%
23 days 4.3%
22 days 4.5%
21 days 4.8%
20 days 5.0%
19 days 5.2%
18 days 5.5%
17 days 5.8%
16 days 6.3%
15 days 6.7%
14 days 7.1%
13 days 7.7%
12 days 8.3%
11 days 9.1%
10 days 10%
9 days 11%
8 days 13%
7 days 14%
6 days 17%
5 days 20%
4 days 25%
3 days 33%
2 days 50%
1 day 100% - Friday the 20th the last week day of Summer.
Given this model and the timeline they gave us probably within a month we will see beta. Honestly since it is only 20 days until Pax and Gamescom are over, I would say the first week of September or the last week of August are good estimate for the beta release, each of those days are between the 5-10% range too.
Also considering Blizzcon is 6-7 weeks from the end of Summer and I believe 1-2 weeks is a good amount for open beta to be open, that give 5 weeks for them to ramp up the closed beta, if they decide to release hearthstone at Blizzcon. Which seems very likely because what other news could they possibly have about it if they released it beforehand.
I must congratulate you on your hard work and dedication. But allow me to say: It will come out when it will come out don't stress over it this much.
Let me change your mind
No stress I was just bored lol and like to mess with numbers.
I know that feeling :D Made a very long Priest feedback thread out of boredom more than month ago, very outdated now :D
Let me change your mind
Yeah I am trying not to theorycraft too hard because 1 little change can completely alter all your theories. Anyways I just spent 2 hours putting cards in a word doc so I can print them out on card stock and I can play with my buds, shows how bored I am lol. The irony about this is that I'll probably get a beta invite the second I print all this stuff out and make it look nice =P And yeah I know about cockatrice it's just that digitally keeping track of everything is weird to me after I played magic for like 10 years. Cockatrice just isn't my thing, Now don't get me wrong it isn't the digital part, it is the making sure you and your enemy do everything you need to in one turn, I just felt overwhelmed keeping track. Thank god hearthstone does everything automatically for you haha.
Took us half a day to edit, print and cut enough cards to play with them. ^^
Have fun.. :p
I have an opinion on almost everything. :)
Yeah I figured it would take awhile haha