2% Chance of Golden Common (1 Every 50 Cards) 1% Chance of Golden Rare - 1% (1 Every 100 Cards) 0.25% Chance Golden Epic (1 Every 400 Cards) 0.05% Golden Legendary (1 Every 2000 Cards)
The only thing we know is all basics are given to us during introductions to classes. When we open a pack all 5 cards will be at least common quality (because basics will come free). The is however a 100% chance that 1 one of these 5 cards will be a rare or better. Anything after that is pure chance. The exact numbers are unknown to us. Your guess is as good as mine.
even if we give a 99% chance Im it wouldn't matter because there could be a single card you want and never have the luck for it no matter how hard you try. Think of this as the player who won the anti-lottery. I'm most possitive at least 85% of the hearthstone players will their own anti-lottery winners because there will always be a different card that every different person will want but not have the luck to get it. So it's quite pointless because it doesn't matter what the rarity of the card drop is it's important if its the card you want or more importantly the card you didn't want, as in one you already had two coppies of. The dust process is for those times.
No one wants to try to connect the chances to the costs of creating the cards by arcane dust?
Not likely to be so, but for those that want to believe.
Common (White) Cards – Disenchant for 5 Arcane Dust / Craft a Common card for 40 Arcane Dust
Rare (Blue) Cards – Disenchant for 20 Arcane Dust / Craft a Rare card for 100 Arcane Dust
Epic (Purple) Cards – Disenchant for 100 Arcane Dust / Craft an Epic card for 400 Arcane Dust
Legendary (Orange) Cards – Disenchant for 400 Arcane Dust / Craft a Legendary card for 1600 Arcane Dust
Considering the disenchant values
* 1 rare card is worth similar to 4 commons * 1 epic card is worth similar to 5 rares, or 20 commons * 1 legendary card is worth similar to 4 epics, or 20 rares, or 80 commons
Now considering there are 5 cards per pack..
* 1 rare per average 5 cards = An average of 1 rare per pack * 1 epic per average 25 cards = An average of 1 epic per 5 packs * 1 legendary per average 105 cards = An average of 1 legendary per 21 packs
EDIT: Figure ill keep ranting/speculating.
We still don't know anything special about gold generation (other than 100 gold per pack and a "possible" 15 gold for a forge 1 win play, which all could possibly change later on.) However, before gold they had a system that whenever you won 4 times you were rewarded with a booster pack (shown in the first stream). Considering all those things and an average win ratio of 50% this would mean a number of things.
You would need to play an average of 8 games to receive a booster pack
Converted to gold this would mean that you get an average of 100/8=12,5 gold per duel (close to the 15 gold from forge arena)
Considering Arena used to cost a booster pack to play, the cost for arena should be somewhere around 100 gold.
As for time, according to a blue post playing a duel takes an average of 10-15 minutes. With 8 games this would mean 80-120 minutes per booster pack.
If we combine that to the rarity calculated earlier, this would mean that. * An average of 1 rare per pack = 1 rare per 80-120 min = 1,5-2 hours * An average of 1 epic per 5 packs = 1 epic per 400-600 min = 7-10 hours * An average of 1 legendary per 21 packs = 1 legendary per 1680-2520 min = 28-42 hours
So yeah this is all some mashup with old and new numbers. Even if true or not, would requiring to play the game for 7-10 hours to get an epic or 28-42 hours to get a legendary, not to mention 1,5-2 hours for a booster, be a valid number for blizzard to use or would it be too high/low? Whats your opinion?
Erskow, that looks to be fairly solid reasoning and numbers, and would make sense. Remember however that you can get extra resources to buy packs from daily quests I think, so it wont be as many battles for booster packs. Unless you play 24/7, you will likely do quite a few daily quests in the estimated average of 21 packs. Say if you play 1 hour a day, twice, for 2 hours total, that is only 1 booster pack a day. So less time played, but more packs from daily quests if that makes sense.
They said that when you open a pack, the cards have a certain chance to upgrade to the next highest type (Rare, Epic, Legendary) and then they roll for each one after that if they get the first one.
So a common rolls to see if it is rare, then either the common doesn't become rare, or it does and it rolls again for epic and so on.
The cards also have a chance to become golden which is separate from rarity, this likely happens in the same way.
Arena also uses this system when determining the rarity of a turn of picks. Although I don't believe arena decks roll for golden. (Wouldn't that be terrible, Oh yeah I never get golden cards from packs but my arena decks are all golden =p)
I hope if you have two of a certain golden card in your standard set it will make that same card golden in your arena decks, but I doubt it.
Also, one of the reasons they changed to gold over just packs, was to reward even the loser of the match, so they can progress (though not for the same amount as the winner).
* 1 rare per average 5 cards = An average of 1 rare per pack * 1 epic per average 25 cards = An average of 1 epic per 5 packs * 1 legendary per average 105 cards = An average of 1 legendary per 21 packs
So, if we are in the right way with this, to craft a Legendary that we want, we will need to spend around 84 dollars (4 * 21).
Erskow, that looks to be fairly solid reasoning and numbers, and would make sense. Remember however that you can get extra resources to buy packs from daily quests I think, so it wont be as many battles for booster packs. Unless you play 24/7, you will likely do quite a few daily quests in the estimated average of 21 packs. Say if you play 1 hour a day, twice, for 2 hours total, that is only 1 booster pack a day. So less time played, but more packs from daily quests if that makes sense.
The dailies were disregarded in the calculation I did as there is no info how big the reward is, would be a bit troublesome considering the time variable. Somewhere around 1 hour worth of gold would make sense though. But yeah, depending on how little you play the time could possibly be cut in half.
They said that when you open a pack, the cards have a certain chance to upgrade to the next highest type (Rare, Epic, Legendary) and then they roll for each one after that if they get the first one.
So a common rolls to see if it is rare, then either the common doesn't become rare, or it does and it rolls again for epic and so on.
The arena costed 3 packs, not one. Also we get at least a rare per pack, so the average of rares per pack will be higher than 1 for sure.
In the end, this was just some facts based on a fun calculation on the disenchant values and some old/new info that we knew of. The real rarity algorithm would probably not be as linear as this one. However, personally I feel that the values and facts makes somewhat scene and the real value will probably be somewhat close.
That arena cards used to cost 3 packs were news to me though, always thought it was just one pack. Makes sense though as you used to keep the cards during that time.
Also, one of the reasons they changed to gold over just packs, was to reward even the loser of the match, so they can progress (though not for the same amount as the winner).
It does not necessary mean that the average values have changed (it neither means that the weren't changed). The gold values for each game might have been balanced to give enough for a pack after 8 games with a 50% win ratio (if Team 5 now found it to be a suitable value). The difference being that if you are on a losing streak you feel that you are still moving slowly towards the goal (more cards) compared to staying in one spot and getting mad on not winning.
So, if we are in the right way with this, to craft a Legendary that we want, we will need to spend around 84 dollars (4 * 21).
To craft an Epic, 20 dollars (4 * 5).
Well, if the values I came up to somehow would be legit, you would get one RANDOM legendary AND 104 other cards of different rarities. If you want the values for crafting (that we disenchant all other cards than the specified rarity or above) we would get...
* An average of 1 random rare + 1 crafted rare per pack * An average of 1 random epic + 2 crafted epics per 5 packs * An average of 1 random legendary + 3 crafted legendaries per 21 packs
Not sure what values you used for the real money. Is it the cost of a regular TCG pack or did I miss some gold conversion blue post?
* An average of 1 random rare + 1 crafted rare per pack * An average of 1 random epic + 2 crafted epics per 5 packs * An average of 1 random legendary + 3 crafted legendaries per 21 packs
Not sure what values you used for the real money. Is it the cost of a regular TCG pack or did I miss some gold conversion blue post?
Well, people are saying that a pack will be $ 1, and if it costs 100 gold, then $ 1 = 100 gold.
There is 40 Legendaries right now? Then if it goes like this, you will need $ 210 for all of them? Seems good to me.
It does not necessary mean that the average values have changed (it neither means that the weren't changed). The gold values for each game might have been balanced to give enough for a pack after 8 games with a 50% win ratio.
Then you think we will get 25 gold for victory.
In Arena, as you pay a fee to get in, you should get more than that, right?
For 50% win in Arena, you would need 6 wins. It is said that you would recover your money (300 gold or $3) with the 8th key (7 wins).
Should you not get more reward than just getting your money back for that?
Been looking around on the streams, and while I have not noticed any legendaries yet (other than Geblin) The "one epic per 5 packs" seems quite true at least.
Unless my memory fails me, at the Fireside chat Flux opened 5 packs and got one epic. Xdega opened another 9-10, but only got one epic. Ezm0d opened 15 boosters and got an epic on 5th, 7th and 15th pack.
Currently it holds true for most cases. So it's probably likely to be somewhere around that mark. Anyone have seen/had some other experiences?
448 common, 5 Golden common, 131 rare, 7 Golden Rare, 26 Epic, 2 Golden Epic, 6 Legendary
So:
- 1 Rare each 0,9 packs (being 1 Golden each 17,85 packs)
- 1 Epic each 4,46 packs (being 1 Golden each 62,5 packs)
- 1 Legendary each 20,83 packs (no Golden)
Erskow, you're the man.
The maximum streak of normal packs were of 5 packs in a row.
The feeling i have is that they have made a very great job on this. You don't feel frustrated while opening the packs and you always want to open more of them.
Details from the openings are below:
COMMON
- 1 pack with 1 Golden common + 4 common
RARE
- 71 packs with 1 rare + 4 common
- 5 packs with 1 Rare + 1 Golden common + 3 common
- 1 pack with 1 Rare + 2 Golden common + 2 common
- 4 packs with 1 Rare + 1 Golden Rare + 3 common
- 9 packs with 2 Rares + 3 common
- 1 pack with 2 Rare + 1 Golden common + 2 common
- 1 pack with 3 Rares + 2 common
- 1 pack with 2 Rare + 1 Golden Rare + 2 common
EPIC
- 2 packs with 1 Epic + 4 common
- 17 packs with 1 Epic + 1 Rare + 3 common
- 1 pack with 1 Epic + 2 Rare + 2 common
- 1 pack with 2 Epic + 1 Rare + 2 common
- 1 pack with 1 Epic + 1 Golden Rare + 3 common
- 1 pack with 1 Golden Epic + 4 common
- 1 pack with 1 Golden Epic + 1 Rare + 3 common
- 2 packs with 2 Epic + 3 common
LEGENDARY
- 4 packs with 1 Legendary + 1 Rare + 3 common
- 1 pack with 1 Legendary + 4 common
- 1 pack with 1 Legendary + 1 Golden Rare + 3 common
Well, that is some really detailed info with a decent sample size there. Didn't expect the real values to be so closely tied to the disenchant values.
To add more data (while not as detailed as yours) I watched a replay of Lokazi's stream where he opened 112 packs (and another 8 off stream)
397 commons, 132 rares, 24 epics, 7 legendaries and a total of 24 golden cards of different rarities.
* 132 rares in 112 packs = about 1 rare per 0,848 packs * 24 epics in 112 packs = about 1 epic per 4,667 packs * 7 legendaries in 112 packs = about 1 legendary per 16 packs (but he did get 2 in a row though) * 24 golden cards in 112 packs = about 1 golden per 4,667 packs
Comparing our values they seems quite similar with both being slightly higher than my original calculation. The legendary and golden card numbers are the one that stands out. Though, there is still a quite small sample size for those so errors are always possible.
I didn't write up the possible card rarity combos, but I noticed his biggest "total" rarity in a single pack were 1 epic, 3 rares and 1 golden common. Slight surprice that it was possible to go without a rare (even if it was a golden common). Makes me wonder how the algorithm handles it.
As a bonus, after Lokazi opened all those 120 packs he got a total of 25 extra duplicate rares and 254 duplicate commons so he got another 1770 arcane dust from the mass disenchant. That would be enough to craft another legendary card.
90% chance for a rare 20% chance for an epic 5% chance for a legendary
Or... 1:5 packs will probably contain an epic 1:20 packs will probably contain a legendary
2% Chance of Golden Common (1 Every 50 Cards) 1% Chance of Golden Rare - 1% (1 Every 100 Cards) 0.25% Chance Golden Epic (1 Every 400 Cards) 0.05% Golden Legendary (1 Every 2000 Cards)
Which will be the chances of getting a Legendary card?
And Epic, Rare and common?
UPDATED:
good post on official forums: here
- 1 Rare each 0,85 to 0,90 packs
- 1 Epic each +- 5 packs
- 1 Legendary each +- 20 packs
Golden:
2% Chance of Golden Common (1 Every 50 Cards)
1% Chance of Golden Rare - 1% (1 Every 100 Cards)
0.25% Chance Golden Epic (1 Every 400 Cards)
0.05% Golden Legendary (1 Every 2000 Cards)
Any "guesses" at this point, with no data, would be absolutely meaningless. One thing we can say with relative certainty, is that:
The only thing we know is all basics are given to us during introductions to classes. When we open a pack all 5 cards will be at least common quality (because basics will come free). The is however a 100% chance that 1 one of these 5 cards will be a rare or better. Anything after that is pure chance. The exact numbers are unknown to us. Your guess is as good as mine.
Let me change your mind
No one wants to try to connect the chances to the costs of creating the cards by arcane dust?
even if we give a 99% chance Im it wouldn't matter because there could be a single card you want and never have the luck for it no matter how hard you try. Think of this as the player who won the anti-lottery. I'm most possitive at least 85% of the hearthstone players will their own anti-lottery winners because there will always be a different card that every different person will want but not have the luck to get it. So it's quite pointless because it doesn't matter what the rarity of the card drop is it's important if its the card you want or more importantly the card you didn't want, as in one you already had two coppies of. The dust process is for those times.
Let me change your mind
Not likely to be so, but for those that want to believe.
Considering the disenchant values
* 1 rare card is worth similar to 4 commons
* 1 epic card is worth similar to 5 rares, or 20 commons
* 1 legendary card is worth similar to 4 epics, or 20 rares, or 80 commons
Now considering there are 5 cards per pack..
* 1 rare per average 5 cards = An average of 1 rare per pack
* 1 epic per average 25 cards = An average of 1 epic per 5 packs
* 1 legendary per average 105 cards = An average of 1 legendary per 21 packs
EDIT: Figure ill keep ranting/speculating.
We still don't know anything special about gold generation (other than 100 gold per pack and a "possible" 15 gold for a forge 1 win play, which all could possibly change later on.) However, before gold they had a system that whenever you won 4 times you were rewarded with a booster pack (shown in the first stream). Considering all those things and an average win ratio of 50% this would mean a number of things.
forgearena)* An average of 1 rare per pack = 1 rare per 80-120 min = 1,5-2 hours
* An average of 1 epic per 5 packs = 1 epic per 400-600 min = 7-10 hours
* An average of 1 legendary per 21 packs = 1 legendary per 1680-2520 min = 28-42 hours
So yeah this is all some mashup with old and new numbers. Even if true or not, would requiring to play the game for 7-10 hours to get an epic or 28-42 hours to get a legendary, not to mention 1,5-2 hours for a booster, be a valid number for blizzard to use or would it be too high/low? Whats your opinion?
Erskow, that looks to be fairly solid reasoning and numbers, and would make sense. Remember however that you can get extra resources to buy packs from daily quests I think, so it wont be as many battles for booster packs. Unless you play 24/7, you will likely do quite a few daily quests in the estimated average of 21 packs. Say if you play 1 hour a day, twice, for 2 hours total, that is only 1 booster pack a day. So less time played, but more packs from daily quests if that makes sense.
They said that when you open a pack, the cards have a certain chance to upgrade to the next highest type (Rare, Epic, Legendary) and then they roll for each one after that if they get the first one.
So a common rolls to see if it is rare, then either the common doesn't become rare, or it does and it rolls again for epic and so on.
The cards also have a chance to become golden which is separate from rarity, this likely happens in the same way.
Arena also uses this system when determining the rarity of a turn of picks. Although I don't believe arena decks roll for golden. (Wouldn't that be terrible, Oh yeah I never get golden cards from packs but my arena decks are all golden =p)
I hope if you have two of a certain golden card in your standard set it will make that same card golden in your arena decks, but I doubt it.
Also, one of the reasons they changed to gold over just packs, was to reward even the loser of the match, so they can progress (though not for the same amount as the winner).
Nice job, Erskow.
So, if we are in the right way with this, to craft a Legendary that we want, we will need to spend around 84 dollars (4 * 21).
To craft an Epic, 20 dollars (4 * 5).
The dailies were disregarded in the calculation I did as there is no info how big the reward is, would be a bit troublesome considering the time variable. Somewhere around 1 hour worth of gold would make sense though. But yeah, depending on how little you play the time could possibly be cut in half.
In the end, this was just some facts based on a fun calculation on the disenchant values and some old/new info that we knew of. The real rarity algorithm would probably not be as linear as this one. However, personally I feel that the values and facts makes somewhat scene and the real value will probably be somewhat close.
That arena cards used to cost 3 packs were news to me though, always thought it was just one pack. Makes sense though as you used to keep the cards during that time.
It does not necessary mean that the average values have changed (it neither means that the weren't changed). The gold values for each game might have been balanced to give enough for a pack after 8 games with a 50% win ratio (if Team 5 now found it to be a suitable value). The difference being that if you are on a losing streak you feel that you are still moving slowly towards the goal (more cards) compared to staying in one spot and getting mad on not winning.
Well, if the values I came up to somehow would be legit, you would get one RANDOM legendary AND 104 other cards of different rarities.
If you want the values for crafting (that we disenchant all other cards than the specified rarity or above) we would get...
* An average of 1 random rare + 1 crafted rare per pack
* An average of 1 random epic + 2 crafted epics per 5 packs
* An average of 1 random legendary + 3 crafted legendaries per 21 packs
Not sure what values you used for the real money. Is it the cost of a regular TCG pack or did I miss some gold conversion blue post?
Well, people are saying that a pack will be $ 1, and if it costs 100 gold, then $ 1 = 100 gold.
There is 40 Legendaries right now? Then if it goes like this, you will need $ 210 for all of them? Seems good to me.
Then you think we will get 25 gold for victory.
In Arena, as you pay a fee to get in, you should get more than that, right?
For 50% win in Arena, you would need 6 wins. It is said that you would recover your money (300 gold or $3) with the 8th key (7 wins).
Should you not get more reward than just getting your money back for that?
Take a look at this post and gimme something. lol
Been looking around on the streams, and while I have not noticed any legendaries yet (other than Geblin) The "one epic per 5 packs" seems quite true at least.
Unless my memory fails me, at the Fireside chat Flux opened 5 packs and got one epic.
Xdega opened another 9-10, but only got one epic.
Ezm0d opened 15 boosters and got an epic on 5th, 7th and 15th pack.
Currently it holds true for most cases. So it's probably likely to be somewhere around that mark.
Anyone have seen/had some other experiences?
Ok, Noxious opened 125 packs = 125 * 5 cards = 625 cards (40 packs + 80 packs + 2 packs + 3 packs)
It went likes this:
448 common, 5 Golden common, 131 rare, 7 Golden Rare, 26 Epic, 2 Golden Epic, 6 Legendary
So:
- 1 Rare each 0,9 packs (being 1 Golden each 17,85 packs)
- 1 Epic each 4,46 packs (being 1 Golden each 62,5 packs)
- 1 Legendary each 20,83 packs (no Golden)
Erskow, you're the man.
The maximum streak of normal packs were of 5 packs in a row.
The feeling i have is that they have made a very great job on this. You don't feel frustrated while opening the packs and you always want to open more of them.
Details from the openings are below:
COMMON
- 1 pack with 1 Golden common + 4 common
RARE
- 71 packs with 1 rare + 4 common
- 5 packs with 1 Rare + 1 Golden common + 3 common
- 1 pack with 1 Rare + 2 Golden common + 2 common
- 4 packs with 1 Rare + 1 Golden Rare + 3 common
- 9 packs with 2 Rares + 3 common
- 1 pack with 2 Rare + 1 Golden common + 2 common
- 1 pack with 3 Rares + 2 common
- 1 pack with 2 Rare + 1 Golden Rare + 2 common
EPIC
- 2 packs with 1 Epic + 4 common
- 17 packs with 1 Epic + 1 Rare + 3 common
- 1 pack with 1 Epic + 2 Rare + 2 common
- 1 pack with 2 Epic + 1 Rare + 2 common
- 1 pack with 1 Epic + 1 Golden Rare + 3 common
- 1 pack with 1 Golden Epic + 4 common
- 1 pack with 1 Golden Epic + 1 Rare + 3 common
- 2 packs with 2 Epic + 3 common
LEGENDARY
- 4 packs with 1 Legendary + 1 Rare + 3 common
- 1 pack with 1 Legendary + 4 common
- 1 pack with 1 Legendary + 1 Golden Rare + 3 common
Well, that is some really detailed info with a decent sample size there. Didn't expect the real values to be so closely tied to the disenchant values.
To add more data (while not as detailed as yours) I watched a replay of Lokazi's stream where he opened 112 packs (and another 8 off stream)
397 commons, 132 rares, 24 epics, 7 legendaries and a total of 24 golden cards of different rarities.
* 132 rares in 112 packs = about 1 rare per 0,848 packs
* 24 epics in 112 packs = about 1 epic per 4,667 packs
* 7 legendaries in 112 packs = about 1 legendary per 16 packs (but he did get 2 in a row though)
* 24 golden cards in 112 packs = about 1 golden per 4,667 packs
Comparing our values they seems quite similar with both being slightly higher than my original calculation. The legendary and golden card numbers are the one that stands out. Though, there is still a quite small sample size for those so errors are always possible.
I didn't write up the possible card rarity combos, but I noticed his biggest "total" rarity in a single pack were 1 epic, 3 rares and 1 golden common.
Slight surprice that it was possible to go without a rare (even if it was a golden common). Makes me wonder how the algorithm handles it.
As a bonus, after Lokazi opened all those 120 packs he got a total of 25 extra duplicate rares and 254 duplicate commons so he got another 1770 arcane dust from the mass disenchant. That would be enough to craft another legendary card.
We have this post in the official forums.
Pretty slim chance for Golden Leg, but makes it more exciting!
Here are some vids of me opening packs, I am not sure if I am just really lucky but I get so many golden cards.
I have another Video I am going to upload of 40 more packs soon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9ojjIwdut8&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sP2xIZMnnI&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTJk8IS8Uqw&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5_kltknLMM&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4zYFzFlPhE&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22MfhDrkrCc&feature=youtu.be
Next level Probability Problem:
How many packs do you have to open to get 75% of all acquirable cards with 75% probability.
Any math geeks?
Got Tirion, Thalnos, a gold Rare, a Rare, and a Common from a single pack. Have screenshot!