How often do you draw Loatheb in time to counter that psychic scream or whatever?
I realize that hanging on drawing a card with around a 1 in 25 chance is pretty slim. If I face priest should I just Mulligan for it to save me the hassle or something?
I've only played a few games with the card so far and drew him once at least.
mainly just wondering how you guys go about trying to get the card in time to play to be effective? thanks.
You don't. You don't mulligan for him. He's an insane drop whenever you CAN play him, but way too slow to waste a mulligan card for.
The reason he's in the deck is because he can win certain games by locking your opponent out of playing any cards for a turn. He is in no way a win condition on his own though, and never worth keeping/mulligan for in aggressive decks.
yeah I wasn't sure if Vs. certain decks you need it to not get boned. I mean psychic scream destroys any kind of tempo deck really. I guess if you don't draw it you just have to not over commit.
yeah I wasn't sure if Vs. certain decks you need it to not get boned. I mean psychic scream destroys any kind of tempo deck really. I guess if you don't draw it you just have to not over commit.
In the case of odd rogue you should usually have the priest dead by the turn they can play Psychic Scream since they can't really contest the board early. But yes, in those games Loatheb can easily win you the game if you had a slower start.
p(I have card after D draws or in opening hand) = 1/10 + 9/10 * (M/27 + (1 - M/27) * D/27)
Going second:
p(I have card after D draws or in opening hand) = 4/30 + 26/30 * (M/26 + (1 - M/26) * D/26)
I can work out the odds for a card you have 2 of in a deck as well if you want.
EDIT: That assumes you always keep the card you want in your mulligan. If you toss the card away (or you didn't have it before you mulligan) you use
p(I have card after D draws) = M/27 + (1 - M/27) * D/27 (when going first)
when going second and mulligan M cards
p(I have card after D draws) = M/26 + (1 - M/26) * D/26
instead. (Which is the second half of the formula posted above). The first set of formulae are
p(I had it pre mulligan or I drew it after D draws)
= p(I had it pre mulligan) + p(I didn't have it pre-mulligan) * p(I draw it after D draws)
= p(had it pre-mulligan) + (1 - p(had it pre-mulligan)) * p(I draw it after D draws)
I made a mistake here. I bolded the part if the quote which is wrong.
If you toss a card away (which is a 1-of) in the mulligan the probability of having drawn it by the time you have made D draws is D/27 (going first) or D/26 going first, since you can't get it back in the mulligan phase. The 2nd set of formulae in the post above are correct if you did not toss the card away during the mulligan.
Summary:
Chance to have a specific 1-of card before you mulligan is 3/30 going first or 4/30 going second.
If you did not see the card pre-mulligan use the 2nd set of formulae to calculate the probability of drawing it by the time you have made D draws when you mulligan M cards.
If you threw it away during the mulligan phase use D/27 or D/26 when going first/second.
The probability of drawing a specific card from your deck each time you draw a card is of course just (number of cards of that type left in the deck)/(cards left in deck).
The second set of formulae just linearly interpolate between M/27 (or M/26 going second) and 1 (probability of having drawn the card after drawing your entire deck). M/27 (M/26 going second) is the probability of receiving the 1-of card when you mulligan M cards if you did not have the card pre-mulligan. If you threw the card away during the mulligan phase, the linear interpolation goes from 0 (probability of getting the card back from the mulligan) and 1.
The more complicated first set of formulae is the probabilities you should see if you run a simulation many times for a fixed number of cards M being mulliganned when your mulligan strategy is - always keep the card if you see it before you mulligan. (Hmm, that means the formula is wrong if you mulligan all your cards, since that would mean you did not have the card before you mulligan. In that case you'd just use the second set of formulae with M = 3 or M = 4 when going second since p(I had it before I mulligan M cards) is then equal to 0).
How often do you draw Loatheb in time to counter that psychic scream or whatever?
I realize that hanging on drawing a card with around a 1 in 25 chance is pretty slim. If I face priest should I just Mulligan for it to save me the hassle or something?
I've only played a few games with the card so far and drew him once at least.
mainly just wondering how you guys go about trying to get the card in time to play to be effective? thanks.
You play odd rogue, right?
You don't. You don't mulligan for him. He's an insane drop whenever you CAN play him, but way too slow to waste a mulligan card for.
The reason he's in the deck is because he can win certain games by locking your opponent out of playing any cards for a turn. He is in no way a win condition on his own though, and never worth keeping/mulligan for in aggressive decks.
thanks.
yeah I wasn't sure if Vs. certain decks you need it to not get boned. I mean psychic scream destroys any kind of tempo deck really. I guess if you don't draw it you just have to not over commit.
In the case of odd rogue you should usually have the priest dead by the turn they can play Psychic Scream since they can't really contest the board early. But yes, in those games Loatheb can easily win you the game if you had a slower start.
Check out my post here https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-discussion/205335-need-good-mathematicians?comment=39
which gives you the probability of drawing a 1-of from your deck by the time you have drawn D cards given that you mulligan M cards.
I simplify the argument in this post (same thread) https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/general-discussion/205335-need-good-mathematicians?comment=53
The formula is
Going first:
p(I have card after D draws or in opening hand) = 1/10 + 9/10 * (M/27 + (1 - M/27) * D/27)
Going second:
p(I have card after D draws or in opening hand) = 4/30 + 26/30 * (M/26 + (1 - M/26) * D/26)
I can work out the odds for a card you have 2 of in a deck as well if you want.
EDIT: That assumes you always keep the card you want in your mulligan. If you toss the card away (or you didn't have it before you mulligan) you use
p(I have card after D draws) = M/27 + (1 - M/27) * D/27 (when going first)
when going second and mulligan M cards
p(I have card after D draws) = M/26 + (1 - M/26) * D/26
instead. (Which is the second half of the formula posted above). The first set of formulae are
p(I had it pre mulligan or I drew it after D draws)
= p(I had it pre mulligan) + p(I didn't have it pre-mulligan) * p(I draw it after D draws)
= p(had it pre-mulligan) + (1 - p(had it pre-mulligan)) * p(I draw it after D draws)
I made a mistake here. I bolded the part if the quote which is wrong.
If you toss a card away (which is a 1-of) in the mulligan the probability of having drawn it by the time you have made D draws is D/27 (going first) or D/26 going first, since you can't get it back in the mulligan phase. The 2nd set of formulae in the post above are correct if you did not toss the card away during the mulligan.
Summary:
Chance to have a specific 1-of card before you mulligan is 3/30 going first or 4/30 going second.
If you did not see the card pre-mulligan use the 2nd set of formulae to calculate the probability of drawing it by the time you have made D draws when you mulligan M cards.
If you threw it away during the mulligan phase use D/27 or D/26 when going first/second.
The probability of drawing a specific card from your deck each time you draw a card is of course just (number of cards of that type left in the deck)/(cards left in deck).
The second set of formulae just linearly interpolate between M/27 (or M/26 going second) and 1 (probability of having drawn the card after drawing your entire deck). M/27 (M/26 going second) is the probability of receiving the 1-of card when you mulligan M cards if you did not have the card pre-mulligan. If you threw the card away during the mulligan phase, the linear interpolation goes from 0 (probability of getting the card back from the mulligan) and 1.
The more complicated first set of formulae is the probabilities you should see if you run a simulation many times for a fixed number of cards M being mulliganned when your mulligan strategy is - always keep the card if you see it before you mulligan. (Hmm, that means the formula is wrong if you mulligan all your cards, since that would mean you did not have the card before you mulligan. In that case you'd just use the second set of formulae with M = 3 or M = 4 when going second since p(I had it before I mulligan M cards) is then equal to 0).