• 6

    posted a message on Statistical Analysis of Roping

    Specifically, when someone who knows they've lost the game decides to leave the game idle, forcing the opponent to sit through a few minutes of inactivity before they can go in for the win. The idea is that, maybe, the winner will lose connection before they get a chance to kill you and thus the win will go to the roper, the person who otherwise would have lost.

    Let's analyze this numerically a little bit.

    Assume that 20% of players have a habit of roping every game they lose, meaning that 10% of games will end with the loser roping. Assume that, of these games, 1% of them will see the loser actually win as a result of roping (I imagine this is a high estimate, since in my 18 months of playing, I've only ever disconnected during roping once). Assume that the average wait time to be able to finish off the roper is 2 minutes. Assume that the winrates for all players are 50%. Assume the average game length is six minutes. 

    Now, it's obvious that those who don't rope have nothing to gain from this, so let's look at those who do rope.

    If you play 1000 games, you'll rope 500 of them, which means there will be 5 games won by roping that you otherwise would have lost, which would bring your total number of games won from 500 to 505. But since 10% of your opponents will rope you, that's 100 ropes you'll have to deal with, which will likely cost you one of your wins. Thus, roping will net you 4 wins out of 1000.

    Now, consider that 100 of your winning games will be lengthened by 2 minutes, meaning that you've lost 200 minutes, the time it takes to play 34 games. Had you been able to play those 34 games instead of waiting on ropes, you would have gotten another 17 wins out of it.

    In other words, if you rope 500 games, it could net you 4 wins, but the fact that other people are roping will cost you 17 wins. 

    Moral of the story: there's literally no reason to rope. It hurts you as much as it hurts anyone else. Either fight to your last breath to get the win, or concede. 

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on Can anyone convince me please. Why is Priest still in the game ?

    I think Dragon Reno Priest is the most fun deck in the game. It gives you a lot of tools, it gives you a good curve, it gives you a fair amount of RNG to keep things interesting, and it gives you a huge amount of lategame threats, which are just so much more fun to play than Small-time Buccaneers. It has a good winrate, but not too good. I don't see the problem.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 8

    posted a message on Healthy Meta

    In the week since MSG came out, we've had a few days where no deck really emerged victorious, then we saw Jade Druid on top, then Pirate Warrior, and now Pirate Jade Shaman. All the while, variants of handbuff Paladin, dragon Priest, Renolock and Reno Mage, and old decks like Midrange Shaman and Secret hunter, have been viable as well. As far as I can tell, this is exactly what a healthy meta looks like. I'm sure it'll settle down soon, but think back to the last adventure, when Midrange Shaman became undisputed king from the moment the last wing came out to the moment MSG came out. I'm having a blast; just because a deck is trending heavily on the ladder for more than a day doesn't mean the meta is cancer. 

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 14

    posted a message on A Word on Achieving Game Balance

    It's hard.

    Like, it's REALLY hard.

    There are 800+ cards in HS right now, each one having unique interactions with each other one. There are 9 classes, each with dozens of cards that play into a few unique archetypes. There are hundreds of decks you could run, each with varying degrees of success. Trying to balance every card in the expansion so that the old dominant decks are brought down to earth, but not nerfed into oblivion, and trying to bring a few new builds into use, each with class-specific variants, is insanely complicated. 

    When you complain that the meta is cancer, what are you referring to? The fact that only 6 or 7 decks have 50%+ winrates at high ranks? The fact that f2p players only have access to a handful powerful decks? The fact that some classes are run more than others? I'm sorry, but all that's really just impossible to avoid. Look at MTG; they have over 10,000 cards, and only a handful of decks are run in major tournaments. That's because, no matter how balanced the expansions are, top-level players will always find a few decks to be the most powerful, even if only by a slim margin, and those decks will undoubtedly become the most common. The game designers aren't idiots - they're actually very talented, and if you go by revenue of the game they produce, they're the best in the world. The fact that they couldn't anticipate in a few thousand playtest games over a few months what millions of gamers could discern in millions of games within 2 days of the expansions's release isn't a testament to their idiocy, it's a testament to the fact that card games are really bloody complicated. 

    I'm just rambling at this point. TL;DR if your idea of an "ideal meta" is one where the ladder is evenly composed of all 9 classes and all 50+ usable deck builds, well, that's essentially impossible. Sorry about that.

    Posted in: General Discussion
  • 1

    posted a message on How much pack needed to get all the commons and rares?

    I'm to lazy to find out exactly how many common/rare/epic/legendary cards there will be in the new set, but I'd say that if you opened 70 packs or so, you'd have nearly all of them. Keep in mind that the dds of pulling a card you haven't pulled before decreases with each pack, so it will likely take 300+ packs to get every single common and rare if you're not willing to dust any.

    Posted in: Card Discussion
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