I was thinking of something sort of based on summed value of cards, although it would have to be adjusted for type of deck desired.
For a very rough instance, I was thinking about the arena draw simulator thing available on the Arena Values site. Each of the cards chosen is given a value as an arena pick (based on Trump's valuations), and the whole hand is given a summed value as an arena deck. Higher is better.
Of course, this doesn't mean that such a deck will automatically win. How you actually play the cards has a pretty huge effect all on its own. Still, good cards are better than bad cards, all things being equal...
Sounds like you want a draft evaluator, not a win simulator, and like you said a draft evaluator is pretty much an arena value tabulation with a bit of consideration to mana-cost distribution. There's obviously no way to know wins - even if you assume optimal play, you have no idea how strong the decks you go against will be - and even a probability distribution would be so full of assumptions it would be difficult to estimate with any accuracy greater than "0<=Wins<=12". Also, think about professional gamers predicting the success of their drafts. Trump gets it right sometimes but very frequently his "this has to go 12 wins!" decks stall at 6-8 and his "shit, this deck sucks" decks go 10+ wins all the time. Same for Kripp, and Kripp's often highlights that luck - of the draw, of opponent draws, of opponent skill, of opponent deck strength - make ALL the difference. So no, there's just no way to make even a very rough win estimator of any value, but you can always use arena value sites and then adjust your choices to what your mana curve needs.
Well, a win simulator would be dandy, but I agree that it's all the factors of an actual game are way too complex to simulate with anything less than a cray supercomputer at hand. No telling whether even that would work. If the Expert AIs in the training prologue were a bit more high powered (access to legendaries, etc.) they might function as kind of trial-run feedback.
I guess casual mode kind of fills the same function, but I hate to take a "try-hard" deck into casual.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
we are not amused....
(nothing upsets a delicate situation like a large explosion...)
Interesting idea re: the stat crunching calculators, I do have a background in statistical analysis & actually enjoy playing with data sets. I might just cruse the site you named & see what might be available.... sounds fun.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
we are not amused....
(nothing upsets a delicate situation like a large explosion...)
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I was thinking of something sort of based on summed value of cards, although it would have to be adjusted for type of deck desired.
For a very rough instance, I was thinking about the arena draw simulator thing available on the Arena Values site. Each of the cards chosen is given a value as an arena pick (based on Trump's valuations), and the whole hand is given a summed value as an arena deck. Higher is better.
Of course, this doesn't mean that such a deck will automatically win. How you actually play the cards has a pretty huge effect all on its own. Still, good cards are better than bad cards, all things being equal...
we are not amused....
(nothing upsets a delicate situation like a large explosion...)
Sounds like you want a draft evaluator, not a win simulator, and like you said a draft evaluator is pretty much an arena value tabulation with a bit of consideration to mana-cost distribution. There's obviously no way to know wins - even if you assume optimal play, you have no idea how strong the decks you go against will be - and even a probability distribution would be so full of assumptions it would be difficult to estimate with any accuracy greater than "0<=Wins<=12". Also, think about professional gamers predicting the success of their drafts. Trump gets it right sometimes but very frequently his "this has to go 12 wins!" decks stall at 6-8 and his "shit, this deck sucks" decks go 10+ wins all the time. Same for Kripp, and Kripp's often highlights that luck - of the draw, of opponent draws, of opponent skill, of opponent deck strength - make ALL the difference. So no, there's just no way to make even a very rough win estimator of any value, but you can always use arena value sites and then adjust your choices to what your mana curve needs.
Well, a win simulator would be dandy, but I agree that it's all the factors of an actual game are way too complex to simulate with anything less than a cray supercomputer at hand. No telling whether even that would work. If the Expert AIs in the training prologue were a bit more high powered (access to legendaries, etc.) they might function as kind of trial-run feedback.
I guess casual mode kind of fills the same function, but I hate to take a "try-hard" deck into casual.
we are not amused....
(nothing upsets a delicate situation like a large explosion...)
Interesting idea re: the stat crunching calculators, I do have a background in statistical analysis & actually enjoy playing with data sets. I might just cruse the site you named & see what might be available.... sounds fun.
we are not amused....
(nothing upsets a delicate situation like a large explosion...)