Hearthpwn

Randomness has been the source of much ire in the Hearthstone community. Whether it’s seeing an opponent draw the perfect card at just the right moment to foil our plans, or Tinkmaster Overspark turning an opposing minion into a Devilsaur when we really need a chicken, randomness can be frustrating. We’ve all had a moment when we felt like we played masterfully, only to have victory snatched away by a single moment of bad luck. It’s easy to feel like the existence of any randomness in a game means that skill matters less. 

Take a look at this graph, where games of pure luck where there is no skill required are on the left, and games that are purely skill-based with no random elements are on the right. Many players feel that Hearthstone, and all games for that matter, falls somewhere along this spectrum:

In reality, that graph is totally misleading because the relationship between luck and skill doesn’t work like that. Luck and skill are independent, and a given game can have different amounts of each. The real situation looks more like this:

Every game you can win or lose falls somewhere on a graph like this. Tic-tac-toe has no randomness, but it also requires almost no skill. There is no Tic-tac-toe world championship, because once you know “the strategy” every game ends in a tie. Some games that are extremely luck-based (like Monopoly) very rarely have moments where you can exercise your superior skill to win.

Chess is a classic example of a game that includes a lot of skill and no randomness. However, at the highest levels games like this often require massive amounts of memorization, since games often play out in the same way. Bobby Fischer, one of the greatest Chess players of all time, actually proposed randomizing the back row of pieces to help solve this problem with high-level Chess!

That leaves the games that feature both high randomness and high skill. Games like Poker . . . and Hearthstone! While any particular hand of Poker is random, the best players still win consistently, and Hearthstone is no different. Look at players like Kolento, who place highly in tournaments over and over again.

Games in this high-randomness, high-skill category have two really cool attributes. First, you are constantly presented with novel situations. If every game of Hearthstone was like the last, it would be easy to memorize a game plan and just execute it over and over again. Instead, randomness makes it necessary be quick thinking and solve new problems in every game. A Hearthstone game is more than one turn, and to win consistently, a player must act and react to changing circumstances turn after turn to make the most of what is happening in a match and set up a victory. In this case, randomness actually increases the amount of skill required to perform well, precisely because it can throw a wrench in our plans and forces us to think on our feet.

The second great thing about this type of game is the frequency of awesome player stories. When you need one specific minion to win a Brawl or you lose, and BOOM: It all goes down exactly right—your Armorsmith survives and you manage to turn the game around with an incredible play! That’s a great story! Randomness increases the excitement and frequency of these memorable events.

This combination of novel scenarios and crazy player stories is a huge part of what makes Hearthstone a TON of fun.