8 of my last 10 games have been against DK OTK Paladin and I've lost 6 of those 8. in each of my wins the paladins just used up all clears and stalls way too early in the game so i won with late game pressure. However during the other 6 games i wasn't able to build the necessary pressure early enough so they were longer drawn out games which always favors the paladin in a matchup like that. Anyways to my main point in each of these losses the paladins hero power'd 3 times with death knight and got a different minion each time in each of these games. Now in the past i distinctly remember games where the paladin keeps getting the same one over and over again unable to complete the combo until 3 death knights were in hand and then his next turn is OTK. But in each of these game the paladins had different minions each time they hero power and then pull off the board or copy with Zola. I never leave anything on the board because they would definitely get a new random minion that helps towards their win condition. Overall i guess my question is have they changed the paladin DK so even though they pull a minion off the board they are guaranteed to get a different one on the next turn?
It's just that the chances aren't really as bad as people think they are because it doesn't matter which of the 4 is summoned as long as it has a different name.
The second hero power is 3/4, which for practical purposes is almost a guarantee. Your last hero power is a 50/50, which is really reasonable.
So it basically all comes down to winning one 50/50.
It is Rng but keep in mind: Obviously the first Token will be 100% of the time bounceable. the 2nd still has a 75% chance (if no token on board) the 3rd one is 50% and thats all they need (as u know 3 token in hand play them first then HP and u will get the one u need comparable to shaman hero power). So ur mind tells u it cant be possible to get everytime the right one but the odds are (everytime except the last which is a 50/50 so not very unusual) in his favor.
It's just that the chances aren't really as bad as people think they are because it doesn't matter which of the 4 is summoned as long as it has a different name.
The second hero power is 3/4, which for practical purposes is almost a guarantee. Your last hero power is a 50/50, which is really reasonable.
So it basically all comes down to winning one 50/50.
I think he means opponent is getting the different riders after pal bounces them back to his hand. I played a dk pal once within last week and had a huge wtf that he got a different one three times in a row with with no other rider on board each hero power. Im not a fan of "destroy hero" card, etc but that was extremely lame.
I think he means opponent is getting the different riders after pal bounces them back to his hand. I played a dk pal once within last week and had a huge wtf that he got a different one three times in a row with with no other rider on board each hero power. Im not a fan of "destroy hero" card, etc but that was extremely lame.
I understand what he meant, but he's wrong. As I, and many others, have demonstrated in this thread, the odds are actually pretty reasonable that you keep summoning unique horsemen.
I understand that their chances of getting a different hero on the first two is very likely. But by pulling the minions back into their hands they are leaving themselves with the same probability as the first time they hero power'd with DK active.
Not meaning to be rude but there is a difference between chance and probability. and the probability of 6 out of 8 paladins in my last 10 games getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries is actually not that likely. That was my whole reason for this post because i've never seen such good rng. I'm aware it's better rng odds than most other scenarios in this game but still it shouldn't be that common.
Also now this probably belongs on the salt forum because of all your fantastic responses.
I understand that their chances of getting a different hero on the first two is very likely. But by pulling the minions back into their hands they are leaving themselves with the same probability as the first time they hero power'd with DK active.
Not meaning to be rude but there is a difference between chance and probability. and the probability of 6 out of 8 paladins in my last 10 games getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries is actually not that likely. That was my whole reason for this post because i've never seen such good rng. I'm aware it's better rng odds than most other scenarios in this game but still it shouldn't be that common.
Also now this probably belongs on the salt forum because of all your fantastic responses.
You are misunderstanding the % and how they work. Getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries basically comes down to one 50/50. So it's just as likely as it isn't.
I understand that their chances of getting a different hero on the first two is very likely. But by pulling the minions back into their hands they are leaving themselves with the same probability as the first time they hero power'd with DK active.
Not meaning to be rude but there is a difference between chance and probability. and the probability of 6 out of 8 paladins in my last 10 games getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries is actually not that likely. That was my whole reason for this post because i've never seen such good rng. I'm aware it's better rng odds than most other scenarios in this game but still it shouldn't be that common.
Also now this probably belongs on the salt forum because of all your fantastic responses.
The first try is always 100% so it's all about hitting the 2 correct knights in 2 tries.
So it's about a %37 chance to get it right.
Getting 6/8 of them doing that is rather rare, maybe about a 1% chance (going off of rough calculation to get an estimate so i didn't throw that number randomly. It's going to be about 1% to geta 6/8 paladins getting it perfectly)...which is the rate of getting a legendary.
So basically seeing 6/8 paladins get it perfectly is the same chance of opening a pack and seeing a legendary. That INCLUDES the concept of the pity timer, just to note.
So yeah, it's uncommon.. perhaps even rare.
In fact,... the chances.. are Legendary!
(yeah, it's just chance kicking in and nothing unusual. RNG is RNG)
I understand that their chances of getting a different hero on the first two is very likely. But by pulling the minions back into their hands they are leaving themselves with the same probability as the first time they hero power'd with DK active.
Not meaning to be rude but there is a difference between chance and probability. and the probability of 6 out of 8 paladins in my last 10 games getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries is actually not that likely. That was my whole reason for this post because i've never seen such good rng. I'm aware it's better rng odds than most other scenarios in this game but still it shouldn't be that common.
Also now this probably belongs on the salt forum because of all your fantastic responses.
You are misunderstanding the % and how they work. Getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries basically comes down to one 50/50. So it's just as likely as it isn't.
That works if you keep them on board. If you have it on you hand, each time changes because you can get one you've already gotten...
I was gonna respond with a long and respectful explanation but it's just not worth my time anymore. If you start losing to OTK pallys because they had perfect rng that it almost seemed not random then maybe you'll understand where i'm coming from.
I was gonna respond with a long and respectful explanation but it's just not worth my time anymore. If you start losing to OTK pallys because they had perfect rng that it almost seemed not random then maybe you'll understand where i'm coming from.
At this point, I think you're just salty, and you're right, it isn't worth your time anymore.
Multiple people have pointed out that the RNG is just as in favor of the DK Paly as it is in yours for him to miss. Any assertion that it's "fixed" or "bugged" is just confirmation bias.
That works if you keep them on board. If you have it on you hand, each time changes because you can get one you've already gotten...
Shouldn't this change the math?
If you keep them on board, the odds are 100% each time to roll a unique horseman.
As myself and others have said above the odds are 100% then 75% then 50% to roll a unique horseman. If my quick math is right, 37.5% of the time, the DK Paly will always roll unique Horsemen in 3 rolls. While this is the technical percentage, it isn't exactly practical for our purposes because 75% is so very likely for the DK paly.
If we assume for the purposes of argument that 75% is close to a guaranteed unique horseman, the only difficult roll happens on the third horseman. So one out of every two games, the DK Paly will roll unique horsemen in 3 rolls.
tl;dr the odds that a DK Paly will OTK you without missing one roll is 50/50.
I understand that their chances of getting a different hero on the first two is very likely. But by pulling the minions back into their hands they are leaving themselves with the same probability as the first time they hero power'd with DK active.
Not meaning to be rude but there is a difference between chance and probability. and the probability of 6 out of 8 paladins in my last 10 games getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries is actually not that likely. That was my whole reason for this post because i've never seen such good rng. I'm aware it's better rng odds than most other scenarios in this game but still it shouldn't be that common.
Also now this probably belongs on the salt forum because of all your fantastic responses.
You are misunderstanding the % and how they work. Getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries basically comes down to one 50/50. So it's just as likely as it isn't.
That works if you keep them on board. If you have it on you hand, each time changes because you can get one you've already gotten...
Shouldn't this change the math?
It doesn't change the math, when they are on board you're always guaranteed to get a different one, which means at that point there's no math to even be made.
Now when you're bouncing them back for the OTK the probability is exactly what has been stated and here's why:
For effective purposes we'll just call the horsemen by numbers, 1-2-3-4, to OTK you need all of them right? Ok so the odds of getting an unique one on the first roll is of a 100% right? you have no others so on your first roll you always get one you need... Again, for effective purposes let's say you get Horseman 1 and bounce him back. Next turn you want to do the same again, at that point you don't have 100% probability of getting a new one cause a) You don't have any horsemen on board and b) if you get Horseman 1 again, it'll be useless so your odds are not 4/4 (As in the first time) but instead you have a 3/4 chance of hitting a "good one" or a 75% which is still really in your favor but you can always hit that 25% and get fucked, you should almost always get a new one here as well but there's also the chance you hit the same one 100 times in a row and that would be normal, it would suck and would be extremely rare but could happen. Horseman 2 in your hand. Now is where the inconsistency of the deck comes, when you already have 2 Horsemen on your hand it comes down to a 50/50 every time you roll that hero power, cause the pool consists of 4 Horsemen but 2 are "useless" for you if you get them at this point (the ones you already have) so only 2 of the RNG generated minions work for you which means that you have a 2/4 chance or 50% odds of completing your combo and getting Horseman 3 (And yes it's random, I won't discuss any tinfoil hat conspiracies about the luck being fixed on this kind of rolls).
You always get the first two horsemen fairly easy and consistent but then you just have to flip a coin and hope you don't die before getting the third one, that's what keeps this deck "in check", it would be ridiculously powerful if it wasn't for the RNG at the end.
I was gonna respond with a long and respectful explanation but it's just not worth my time anymore. If you start losing to OTK pallys because they had perfect rng that it almost seemed not random then maybe you'll understand where i'm coming from.
At this point, I think you're just salty, and you're right, it isn't worth your time anymore.
Multiple people have pointed out that the RNG is actually in favor of the OTK paly. Any assertion that it's "fixed" or "bugged" is just confirmation bias.
Never said it was bugged or fixed i simply asked a question and i disagree with your answer don't boil this up to be something that it isn't
I understand that their chances of getting a different hero on the first two is very likely. But by pulling the minions back into their hands they are leaving themselves with the same probability as the first time they hero power'd with DK active.
Not meaning to be rude but there is a difference between chance and probability. and the probability of 6 out of 8 paladins in my last 10 games getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries is actually not that likely. That was my whole reason for this post because i've never seen such good rng. I'm aware it's better rng odds than most other scenarios in this game but still it shouldn't be that common.
Also now this probably belongs on the salt forum because of all your fantastic responses.
You are misunderstanding the % and how they work. Getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries basically comes down to one 50/50. So it's just as likely as it isn't.
That works if you keep them on board. If you have it on you hand, each time changes because you can get one you've already gotten...
Shouldn't this change the math?
It doesn't change the math, when they are on board you're always guaranteed to get a different one, which means at that point there's no math to even be made.
Now when you're bouncing them back for the OTK the probability is exactly what has been stated and here's why:
For effective purposes we'll just call the horsemen by numbers, 1-2-3-4, to OTK you need all of them right? Ok so the odds of getting an unique one on the first roll is of a 100% right? you have no others so on your first roll you always get one you need... Again, for effective purposes let's say you get Horseman 1 and bounce him back. Next turn you want to do the same again, at that point you don't have 100% probability of getting a new one cause a) You don't have any horsemen on board and b) if you get Horseman 1 again, it'll be useless so your odds are not 4/4 (As in the first time) but instead you have a 3/4 chance of hitting a "good one" or a 75% which is still really in your favor but you can always hit that 25% and get fucked, you should almost always get a new one here as well but there's also the chance you hit the same one 100 times in a row and that would be normal, it would suck and would be extremely rare but could happen. Horseman 2 in your hand. Now is where the inconsistency of the deck comes, when you already have 2 Horsemen on your hand it comes down to a 50/50 every time you roll that hero power, cause the pool consists of 4 Horsemen but 2 are "useless" for you if you get them at this point (the ones you already have) so only 2 of the RNG generated minions work for you which means that you have a 2/4 chance or 50% odds of completing your combo and getting Horseman 3 (And yes it's random, I won't discuss any tinfoil hat conspiracies about the luck being fixed on this kind of rolls).
You always get the first two horsemen fairly easy and consistent but then you just have to flip a coin and hope you don't die before getting the third one, that's what keeps this deck "in check", it would be ridiculously powerful if it wasn't for the RNG at the end.
That works if you keep them on board. If you have it on you hand, each time changes because you can get one you've already gotten...
Shouldn't this change the math?
If you keep them on board, the odds are 100% each time to roll a unique horseman.
As myself and others have said above the odds are 100% then 75% then 50% to roll a unique horseman. If my quick math is right, 37.5% of the time, the DK Paly will always roll unique Horsemen in 3 rolls. While this is the technical percentage, it isn't exactly practical for our purposes because 75% is so very likely for the DK paly.
If we assume for the purposes of argument that 75% is close to a guaranteed unique horseman, the only difficult roll happens on the third horseman. So one out of every two games, the DK Paly will roll unique horsemen in 3 rolls.
tl;dr the odds that a DK Paly will OTK you without missing one roll is 50/50.
Thanks both! What you've said is pretty clear for me!
I’m pretty sure the person who said 37.5% odds of completing the combo first try assuming full removal each roll is right. The odds of this occurring six games in a row should be 0.27% though. So you are right to assume the odds are very low. That said, if you’ve played several hundred or even thousands of games ever you are gauranteed to experience things that are this rare so it’s not completely surprising that it happened to you.
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8 of my last 10 games have been against DK OTK Paladin and I've lost 6 of those 8. in each of my wins the paladins just used up all clears and stalls way too early in the game so i won with late game pressure. However during the other 6 games i wasn't able to build the necessary pressure early enough so they were longer drawn out games which always favors the paladin in a matchup like that. Anyways to my main point in each of these losses the paladins hero power'd 3 times with death knight and got a different minion each time in each of these games. Now in the past i distinctly remember games where the paladin keeps getting the same one over and over again unable to complete the combo until 3 death knights were in hand and then his next turn is OTK. But in each of these game the paladins had different minions each time they hero power and then pull off the board or copy with Zola. I never leave anything on the board because they would definitely get a new random minion that helps towards their win condition. Overall i guess my question is have they changed the paladin DK so even though they pull a minion off the board they are guaranteed to get a different one on the next turn?
Google search: Is Hearthstone free to play?
It's total RNG. No need for tinfoil hats.
It's just that the chances aren't really as bad as people think they are because it doesn't matter which of the 4 is summoned as long as it has a different name.
The second hero power is 3/4, which for practical purposes is almost a guarantee.
Your last hero power is a 50/50, which is really reasonable.
So it basically all comes down to winning one 50/50.
Some confusion about what "Random" means.
It is Rng but keep in mind: Obviously the first Token will be 100% of the time bounceable. the 2nd still has a 75% chance (if no token on board) the 3rd one is 50% and thats all they need (as u know 3 token in hand play them first then HP and u will get the one u need comparable to shaman hero power). So ur mind tells u it cant be possible to get everytime the right one but the odds are (everytime except the last which is a 50/50 so not very unusual) in his favor.
Fast insight: on their 2nd knight (1 in hand), they have a 3/4= 75% to get one that is different from the 1st one. It's very high.
If the above succeeds, chance is 2/4= 50% on the 3rd knight (2 in hand), which is again quite high.
I think he means opponent is getting the different riders after pal bounces them back to his hand. I played a dk pal once within last week and had a huge wtf that he got a different one three times in a row with with no other rider on board each hero power. Im not a fan of "destroy hero" card, etc but that was extremely lame.
Fun > Meta
I understand what he meant, but he's wrong. As I, and many others, have demonstrated in this thread, the odds are actually pretty reasonable that you keep summoning unique horsemen.
Half of the ladder are literally op hunters. And you are crying about losing to otk pali? Wut? Mah, sorry, but you are just a loser
I understand that their chances of getting a different hero on the first two is very likely. But by pulling the minions back into their hands they are leaving themselves with the same probability as the first time they hero power'd with DK active.
Not meaning to be rude but there is a difference between chance and probability. and the probability of 6 out of 8 paladins in my last 10 games getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries is actually not that likely. That was my whole reason for this post because i've never seen such good rng. I'm aware it's better rng odds than most other scenarios in this game but still it shouldn't be that common.
Also now this probably belongs on the salt forum because of all your fantastic responses.
Google search: Is Hearthstone free to play?
You are misunderstanding the % and how they work. Getting 3 unique death knights in their first 3 tries basically comes down to one 50/50. So it's just as likely as it isn't.
The first try is always 100% so it's all about hitting the 2 correct knights in 2 tries.
So it's about a %37 chance to get it right.
Getting 6/8 of them doing that is rather rare, maybe about a 1% chance (going off of rough calculation to get an estimate so i didn't throw that number randomly. It's going to be about 1% to geta 6/8 paladins getting it perfectly)...which is the rate of getting a legendary.
So basically seeing 6/8 paladins get it perfectly is the same chance of opening a pack and seeing a legendary. That INCLUDES the concept of the pity timer, just to note.
So yeah, it's uncommon.. perhaps even rare.
In fact,... the chances.. are Legendary!
(yeah, it's just chance kicking in and nothing unusual. RNG is RNG)
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
That works if you keep them on board. If you have it on you hand, each time changes because you can get one you've already gotten...
Shouldn't this change the math?
I was gonna respond with a long and respectful explanation but it's just not worth my time anymore. If you start losing to OTK pallys because they had perfect rng that it almost seemed not random then maybe you'll understand where i'm coming from.
Google search: Is Hearthstone free to play?
At this point, I think you're just salty, and you're right, it isn't worth your time anymore.
Multiple people have pointed out that the RNG is just as in favor of the DK Paly as it is in yours for him to miss. Any assertion that it's "fixed" or "bugged" is just confirmation bias.
If you keep them on board, the odds are 100% each time to roll a unique horseman.
As myself and others have said above the odds are 100% then 75% then 50% to roll a unique horseman. If my quick math is right, 37.5% of the time, the DK Paly will always roll unique Horsemen in 3 rolls. While this is the technical percentage, it isn't exactly practical for our purposes because 75% is so very likely for the DK paly.
If we assume for the purposes of argument that 75% is close to a guaranteed unique horseman, the only difficult roll happens on the third horseman. So one out of every two games, the DK Paly will roll unique horsemen in 3 rolls.
tl;dr the odds that a DK Paly will OTK you without missing one roll is 50/50.
It doesn't change the math, when they are on board you're always guaranteed to get a different one, which means at that point there's no math to even be made.
Now when you're bouncing them back for the OTK the probability is exactly what has been stated and here's why:
For effective purposes we'll just call the horsemen by numbers, 1-2-3-4, to OTK you need all of them right? Ok so the odds of getting an unique one on the first roll is of a 100% right? you have no others so on your first roll you always get one you need... Again, for effective purposes let's say you get Horseman 1 and bounce him back. Next turn you want to do the same again, at that point you don't have 100% probability of getting a new one cause a) You don't have any horsemen on board and b) if you get Horseman 1 again, it'll be useless so your odds are not 4/4 (As in the first time) but instead you have a 3/4 chance of hitting a "good one" or a 75% which is still really in your favor but you can always hit that 25% and get fucked, you should almost always get a new one here as well but there's also the chance you hit the same one 100 times in a row and that would be normal, it would suck and would be extremely rare but could happen. Horseman 2 in your hand. Now is where the inconsistency of the deck comes, when you already have 2 Horsemen on your hand it comes down to a 50/50 every time you roll that hero power, cause the pool consists of 4 Horsemen but 2 are "useless" for you if you get them at this point (the ones you already have) so only 2 of the RNG generated minions work for you which means that you have a 2/4 chance or 50% odds of completing your combo and getting Horseman 3 (And yes it's random, I won't discuss any tinfoil hat conspiracies about the luck being fixed on this kind of rolls).
You always get the first two horsemen fairly easy and consistent but then you just have to flip a coin and hope you don't die before getting the third one, that's what keeps this deck "in check", it would be ridiculously powerful if it wasn't for the RNG at the end.
Never said it was bugged or fixed i simply asked a question and i disagree with your answer don't boil this up to be something that it isn't
Google search: Is Hearthstone free to play?
Thanks both! What you've said is pretty clear for me!
My answer is simple math. What is there to disagree with?
I’m pretty sure the person who said 37.5% odds of completing the combo first try assuming full removal each roll is right. The odds of this occurring six games in a row should be 0.27% though. So you are right to assume the odds are very low. That said, if you’ve played several hundred or even thousands of games ever you are gauranteed to experience things that are this rare so it’s not completely surprising that it happened to you.