With 3 differnt kinds of packs, it is possible to open 127 packs without getting a legendary. Realistically, the max-pity number is closer to 100 though, as the odds rise significantly already from 30 of the same kind.
It's 117 packs and therefore the max-pity number should be 118. (If i don't misunderstand your idea of max pity number)
Ofc. you are right, a bit sick and brain not working. But 100 is probably a more accurate estimate, even though that calculation is 😐
Thanks, but I was actually looking for a link to the original study/analysis that proved that this pity timer exists, not to a site that already assumes it exists and just tracks your packs.
As I said my own data suggests that it doesn't exist (or at least didn't as of 6 months ago) so I was hoping to find a link to the person who 'discovered' this pity timer, how they found it, what methodology they used to prove it and what work has been done to verify it.
Without that, it could very easily be just an urban myth.
So far the way people understand pity timer to work is that every card has a chance to be a legendary, but the chances of each card being a legendary increase the more packs from the same set that you have opened without a legendary. So if you have opened 30 WoG packs with no legendaries your next pack has a better chance than someone who has opened 20 packs with no legendaries. Many studies have been done (think there was a1-2 with 15,000 packs) and the biggest gap between two legendaries when opening the same packs was 39, hence the 40 pack pity timer rule. It is possible to go beyond this 40 pack rule, and the average legendary is supposedly 20-30 packs, but it can vary (pack openings will be pack openings).
Don't be so quick to dismiss everything. It's highly unlikely to happen but it can happen. Even if you get 2 legendaries ( 3 with C'thun ) in 100 packs, your luck is horrendous. This should not be happening, pity timer or not.
I remember when I first started. Goddamn my packs were terrible. No good legendaries and I kept getting twisting nether and bane of doom whenever I got an epic. As it is now I still have terrible luck but I'm hoping it's alright on day 1 of WotOG. If I get just 2 legendaries with all the packs I'll be opening (85) and both of them are some trash like Zerus, Mukla, boogeymonster, or cho'gall I'm going to be one very disappointed person. If I end up getting 3-5 like I do on average in the simulator, that's alright so long as one is something I'm looking for. Unlikely that I get total trash though since I'm ok with most legendaries.
Thanks, but I was actually looking for a link to the original study/analysis that proved that this pity timer exists, not to a site that already assumes it exists and just tracks your packs.
As I said my own data suggests that it doesn't exist (or at least didn't as of 6 months ago) so I was hoping to find a link to the person who 'discovered' this pity timer, how they found it, what methodology they used to prove it and what work has been done to verify it.
Without that, it could very easily be just an urban myth.
Pity timer was added with TGT, so if you did not get any good packs for a long time before then that would be why.
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I'm here to kick ass and play cards, and I'm all out of ass.
Ah okay. I've also looked into it a bit further and it seems it is only valid for packs of the same type, whereas my 53 would have been a mix of Classic and GvG so that would explain it too.
Thanks, but I was actually looking for a link to the original study/analysis that proved that this pity timer exists, not to a site that already assumes it exists and just tracks your packs.
As I said my own data suggests that it doesn't exist (or at least didn't as of 6 months ago) so I was hoping to find a link to the person who 'discovered' this pity timer, how they found it, what methodology they used to prove it and what work has been done to verify it.
Without that, it could very easily be just an urban myth.
Simulators don't ever really feel right. They don't do the auto-rare in every pack the same way Blizzard does it, and they of course can miss the super obvious stuff like the pity time on epics and legendaries.
What's the point of a simulator? This is all RNG, you can have all the luck in the world on a simulator and get jack when opening real packs, vice versa.
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When did Blizzardy talk about such pity timer? Never heard of it until today. I find that to be a very cool initiative !
Hello.
Pity timer?
statistics?
complex calculations?
It is true, but not linear. For example, i opened 5 legendaries in 2 weeks, but i went months without opening anything good.
f2p, playing for fun ^^
Source on this pity timer please? I record all my pack openings and I never got a legendary until my 54th pack.
The only cancer in Hearthstone is its community.
The only cancer in Hearthstone is its community.
The only cancer in Hearthstone is its community.
So far the way people understand pity timer to work is that every card has a chance to be a legendary, but the chances of each card being a legendary increase the more packs from the same set that you have opened without a legendary. So if you have opened 30 WoG packs with no legendaries your next pack has a better chance than someone who has opened 20 packs with no legendaries. Many studies have been done (think there was a1-2 with 15,000 packs) and the biggest gap between two legendaries when opening the same packs was 39, hence the 40 pack pity timer rule. It is possible to go beyond this 40 pack rule, and the average legendary is supposedly 20-30 packs, but it can vary (pack openings will be pack openings).
Diehard druid player ^~^
Check out my theorycrafted Blistering Rot
And epics is 15.8%
I'm here to kick ass and play cards, and I'm all out of ass.
I'm here to kick ass and play cards, and I'm all out of ass.
Ah okay. I've also looked into it a bit further and it seems it is only valid for packs of the same type, whereas my 53 would have been a mix of Classic and GvG so that would explain it too.
The only cancer in Hearthstone is its community.
Simulators don't ever really feel right. They don't do the auto-rare in every pack the same way Blizzard does it, and they of course can miss the super obvious stuff like the pity time on epics and legendaries.
Opened 73 packs, 4 legendaries, 1 of them golden + 12 epics. If that's the case, I'll be happy.
What's the point of a simulator? This is all RNG, you can have all the luck in the world on a simulator and get jack when opening real packs, vice versa.
I've gotten two legendaries from packs since I started playing. Ysera (mildly useful sometimes) and I got the new Hogger from on of my WotOG packs.
Since beta.
The RNG gods are rarely in my favor with this game.