Hearthpwn

How do you think the nerfs will affect the imminent Standard format?  Is your expectation or anticipation for the format different now that the nerfs have been announced?  Which decks or archetypes do you expect to be strong?

Discuss, predict, speculate, and be merry.  :)

(PS. This thread is for discussing the effects of the nerf-wave on the incoming Standard metagame.  For Wild, discuss it here.)

I think it's fairly obvious that the nerfs were not intended to slow down the meta entirely, but to slow down aggro and aggro alone. I'm sure these nerfs will allow the much slower decks to see a lot more competitive play in standard. 

I think we are going to see lots of Deathrattle Rogue decks.

Well, we still have a lot of new cards to see, but for the time being, I think this decks could be a thing:

Tier 1:

-Freeze Mage: even though it loses mad scientist, it's important to keep in mind that freeze mage was a thing before Naxx, and the reason is that there were not as many sticky minions then as there are today. A lot of sticky minions are rotating out of standard, so all the mage AoE spells will be way more effective. I can definitely see Freeze Mage as one of the strongest decks in STD.

-Aggro Shaman: Ok, it's losing crackle and (kind of) leper gnome, but that's it. With Healbot and Belcher rotating out of STD and Doomhammer remaining unnerfed, I expect face/burst/aggro shaman to be very very strong.

-Midrange Shaman: FeelsShaMan. What I said before: shaman doesn't lose anything important from Naxx or GvG, and they are getting pretty good cards from WoG. Aggro shaman might be too strong for Midrange to see play though. I really hope it isn't the case.

-Reno (maybe combo) warlock: No explanation needed. Put any 29 decent cards in your warlock deck + Reno and it will work just fine.

Tier 2:

-(C'Thun) Control Warrior: Either with or without C'Thun. Control Warrior loses some minions, but keeps all its removal. I can see some replacements from WoG to make up for the minions, so I'd say CW is not dead yet.

-Dragon Priest: Control Priest loses a lot indeed, but Dragon Priest will be a thing at least till BRM and all the dragons rotate out of STD.

-Handlockish decks: Molten Giant is totally unplayable, but Mountain Giant remains intact, so if the meta is slow enough (which I doubt) we might see some handlockish decks.

-Aggro Paladin: Divine Favour, enough said. The new Steward of Darkshire class card could have a great impact too.

Tier 3:

-Druid decks, probably with C'Thun as a finisher. After those huge nerfs Druids are getting I can not see druid being even tier 2. Combo Druid was really good (probably the best deck in the game) not only because the combo was OP, but also because it was really consistent. You could ramp and empty your hand and then refill it with AoL. Now you can't. Druid has a lot of cheap ramp spells but no way of drawing. RIP.

-Rogue decks. Well, I really hope rogues are getting some love with the upcoming released cards from WoG. Otherwise, RIP Valeera. I cannot see a single rogue archetype being played.

It highly strikes me as that the meta will slow down. So many key agro cards nerfed, also BGH nerf affects midrange decks too, so expect to see allot more control.

And in a control meta it's the slowest of decks that will reign supreme.

I would have liked them to up the cost on Roar by 1.

Quote from Poghy >>

Divine Favor

I stand corrected, no need to try to be cute about it, I misread the post cupcake.

a simple "you misread my post MaSQue" would have worked just fine.

One Standard. One motto.

'For the Frostwolves!'

I think people are over estimating Face Shaman, losing Crackle in Standard is a really big loss (it's their best burn spell!) and they still often have to draw Doomhammer to close out games. I agree that Control Warrior will be stronger (mainly due to losses in Paladin and the Combo nerf on Druid).

Although with their new C'thun card I think a Midrange Warrior archetype will come along, the loss of Shield Bearer and Death's Bite is very substantial as well.

I'm not sure about Zoo, I mean they lose their strongest cards (Egg,, Creeper and Implosion) having so many few sticky minions/tokens makes them a lot more prone to losing the board and they won't get the heavy tempo swing from Nerubian. They do still keep Power Overwhelming which is one of the things keeping the deck competitive.

Every single aggro deck will do just fine. Belcher and healbot are gone,eveey single control deck lost some essential cards and aggro decks either lost nothing of importance or gained new tools.

Even though the meta does seem to become a bit more controllish, I still think Face Shaman will define (maybe even dominate) the meta, since it's quite high now and loses only Crackle + all control decks are losing most of their damage mitigation cards (aka only Reno decks might be viable if Face Shaman dominates).

I think that Midrange Shaman will be the king, and let be honest, it deserved it! Every class card they've showed already are perfectly fit in a cool midrange deck. 

Aggro decks don't lose any of their most important stuffs, so this coltrol-wannabe expansion can't cure the cancer. Sad, but we need some aggro, it's ok, just don't make them OP please!

If will be there some neutral or Warlock anti-aggro stuff (taunt/heal/immune...) then Handlock / Control Warlock will be nice even if Blizzard nerfed Molten Giant to unplayable. I hope so because I'm in deep love with this class. 

Rogue get some freaking funny toys. My hope is huge about them.

Aaaaaaand C'Thun decks... They will be shit, or dominate the meta. We'll see it.

So I'll play Warlock, Shaman and Rogue. Probably even if they will be not good enough. :D

We cant expect any current decks to remain viable in standard purely for the fact that with cards leaving, cards that remain lose their value, and new answers will have to be found for popular threats.

BGH was a fringe tech card, then boom increased its value exponentially with the amount of decks that run it. Even with people saying that BGH is still playable with the nerf, it totally depends on if there are any consistent targets for it to be used with. Cards like Mulch, Naturalize, Assassinate, these all increase in value.

Grim Patron gains a ton of its value from a powerful card like Deaths Bite, without it, it loses its value.

Tunnel Trogg loses part of its value with the loss of Crackle.

Warlock in general loses two cheap removal options, increasing the value of many underplayed minions in a warlock matchup.

Face decks lose a large amount of power in the Leper Gnome and Arcane Golem nerfs, meaning less face decks, leading to other decks not having to worry about building their deck to survive against face.

This is all just the butterfly effect, this card loses power, so this deck doesn't need to play it, so that deck doesn't need to tech around it, so that deck doesnt need to take that decks tech into account, opening up more options, but now there is this new deck that is playing around an interaction that becomes popular, so in turn all other decks find a way to counteract this new interaction and so on and so on until the meta peaks, and then we are left with a very consistent and readable meta, until the next rotation happens of course.

Before Standard, only a few cards could break into the meta because the game was sitting at its peak since vanilla, with only seldom nerfs and a minuscule amount of cards being introduced that NEEDED TO BE OVERPOWERED TO HAVE A CHANCE, actually making an impact.

TL:DR - The way we are making decisions and speculations now, is not the way it actually will be.

Quote from eyelidd >>

I think most basic Reno decks should be fine due to the basic nature of Reno.

As long as a good neutral healing card to replace healbot is announced I think most control archetypes should be fine.

I think control Priest (even with the loss of Lightbomb) will prevail at the start at least.

However I hope a lot of new styles of decks will come about with this new expansion.

Quote from eyelidd >>

with the nerf to Keeper of the Grove and Owl I feel like Tournament Medic could be a shout for healing in a much slower meta (but only in a much slower meta). 

I think Paladin are definitely going to have to go slower/more control with the loss of Minibot/Muster. The "new" 5 mana muster is just too slow so we'll definitely see a lot more control Pally. 

Tempo mage will remain in the meta, it will just be different.

Priest got a huge boost from the nerfs, also it is generally strong against shaman which got much better than before. Freeze mage will be dependent of the number of warriors. Warrior looks like really solid with all the annoying DR minions going away. Warlock will always find a way, druid likely still has the token version. Paladin will go full control and will be dependent on the number of aggro decks. Hunter will go midrange. Rogue seems out of place and likely be the worst class as it is now. Today's card reveals might change that though. Also there will be new archetypes which could turn everything upside down.

Paladins cant go slow,because they lost their early game tools. How the fuck is Rag going to make a difference now that pally cant do jack about aggro decks until turn four? Youll be dead before you can even think about playing your heavy hitters.

Of course it is still pretty hard to say without seeing the whole set + completely new decks can change the power of existing decks considerably. So just looking at this, ignoring half of the new set + completely new decks:

Controll warrior and Controll Priest should be quite good. As long as Controll Warrior wouldn't be everywhere Freeze Mage would be quite good. This makes fast aggressive decks way more effective too, especially aggro shaman..
It's quite likely that we will see a new form of face hunter and the current aggro shami feeding on the undefined new greedy decks.

I think that you are wrong about tempo mage.. A kind of tempo mage deck will surely remain in the meta.. Mage decks are just so easy to build that people will find something quite fast. Also I doubt that Handlock will survive, unless we see a new big threat which they could use against aggro instead of Molten Giant. Molten Giant nerf + Ironbeak Owl nerf won't kill renolock and a new controll Warlock may rise but classic Handlock is probably dead.

Quote from Mazzmaker >>

Paladins cant go slow,because they lost their early game tools. How the fuck is Rag going to make a difference now that pally cant do jack about aggro decks until turn four? Youll be dead before you can even think about playing your heavy hitters.