How Arena Matchmaking Works in Hearthstone - Games Decided on Skill & Tracking Of A Skill Rating
Dean "Iksar" Ayala was called into a twitter thread and went on to make some interesting statements about how Matchmaking works in Arena, how games are decided almost entirely by skill level of the players involved and how Blizzard are apparently tracking a "skill" rating (though they don't use it for anything outside Data tracking).
This discussion started off with a conversation between Celestalon and a twitter user named Judge, about Arena matchmaking occasionaly matchmaking people with 0 losses against people with 2 losses, but within usually within an overal record that made the difference only 1 loss. Example records that were given: 0-0 vs. 1-2, 4-2 vs. 3-0, 8-2 vs 8-0. The contention being that these differences between 0 loss decks and 2 loss decks were often quite lopsided.
At that point Iksar entered the conversation, and made some interesting comments about the way matchmaking works.
Quote from Dean "Iksar" AyalaAll records (0-2 --> 11-0) are assigned a value and are then matchmade by that value. This isn't exactly correct, but it looks something like this:
0-2 = -10
1-2 = -9
0-1 = -8
etc
etc
Quote from Dean "Iksar" AyalaThe order of records and distance between records is some complex table. Basically we have enough data at this point to understand how well a 2-0 performs vs a 2-1 or an 8-2 performs vs a 0-0 on average.
Quote from Dean "Iksar" AyalaAnd just like other matchmade modes, the matchmaker looks for an opponent with an identical value, then after X time extends the search parameters a small amount and repeats that process until a match is found.
Quote from Dean "Iksar" AyalaContrary to popular belief, match outcomes are decided almost entirely by the skill level of the players involved. We know this because we track a skill rating as well we just don't use it for anything outside of data tracking.
The conversation went on about the differences between 0 loss decks and 2 loss decks, with twitter users maintaining that it feels bad and Dean Ayala maintaining that it isn't worth the neglibible difference in match quality to prolong wait times in queue for Arena.
So, what are your thoughts on the matter? And what do you think your hidden skill rating is? Join us for the conversation in the comments!
Why are you getting downvoted?
Now tell us how much rigged is standard.
How MMR and rank is used is not obvious, but if you are not in the "noob zone", they clearly don't use anything else, or it would have been figured out long ago.
Considering I get easier matches after losing a lot, it doesn't feel rigged at all.
So if I already have all the cards, I'm safe from all this "rigged" matchmaking? Good to know.
Honestly, though, in constructed there's no need to rig anything. People who don't have the cards they need to build a top deck are already going to lose more, and they already know they would do better if they bought more cards.
In the context of Arena, there's simply no benefit in tweaking the matchmaking beyond what Iksar described above.
Your "skill" rating is directly proportional with the amount of Venomous Scorpids you've drafted throughout your games.
Giving a ysera (or let discover her) opponent, here you are, you won the game. How many times you won against a ysera played opponent?
It’s worse than mind control or any power card ever printed. Game sux in each play mode atm. Had 35 wins on 3 runs in a row but it’s impossible anymore, this is not “hidden” skill or any player cap.
best way to win, leaving game immediately.
Agree. The moment they began to touch and tune their matchmaking system, I started to dislike this game. And I already played only arenas. You can feel the difference, and it's the worst feeling the game ever gave to me out of all of the changes they ever made. You want to decide which opponent I should play based on your or new player interests, then play by yourself. I'm done.
you are right, Thijis!
XDDD i have this feeling since i play this game, the matchmaking its bullshit and this game its rigged in basically every interaction but the most frustating its you face opponents based in your deck, not rank, not some skill value, just to maintain around a 50% winrate across all players to maximize incomes...
its also fun i keep playing for the same reasons, i like to collect Wow cards XD
Learn about variance.
Then post it my guy.
Pffttt... Variance Wrynn barely even saw play.
I'd rather not know my hidden skill rating.
Thanks for the info.
I believe matchmaking is random., but it is still weird that when i play Control Warrior i keep facing Mage / Warlock 80+% of the time and then when i switch to Mage i hardly see Mage (in other words: a mirro). It drops like to 20-%... There are other examples too. And no, this is not a feeling (I should have kept track though)...
It's called variance.
Yeah it's totally skill when someone drafts Tickatus, or 2x Alextrasza, while I don't even get offered any legendary
So you've never seen a skilled Arena streamer get 8+ wins using a deck with no Legendaries? I've seen it many, many times.
A good player can win more with a "bad" deck than a bad player can win with a good deck. I put "bad" in quotes because the good player probably has built a better overall deck even without Legendaries.
Luck gets you to 12 wins, sure.
But I can consistently get 6+ wins unless I get terribad RNG.
If you can't, it's a skill issue.