The Boomsday Project Arena Meta Report - Meta and Tier Predictions
There's a whole set of new cards coming out this week and it's time we take a look at where we think the Arena meta is going.
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Meta Overview Prediction
From purely a speculative angle, I feel this new upcoming meta will be extremely different than our previous Witchwood meta. With the reduction in high rarity (generally higher quality) cards especially spells and weapons, we can expect to see a different Arena environment. Also, in the new Boomsday Project (BDP) set, there just isn't a whole lot of AOE, hard removal, or heals introduced, which will undoubtedly create some various challenges.
First, classes that have the ability to snowball their early game tempo, generally is a strong consistent game plan that should lead to more wins. Gone are the days where Priest and Mage can hide behind their Psychic Scream and numerous Blizzard due to rarity and spell reductions. So with that said a more proactive start that aims to seize the board and rely less on bail out cards is what I'd expect we will see more of in the coming release. I anticipate Paladin and Rogue to remain on top, benefiting from their high tempo classic cards, as well as some of the newly introduced draw engines that will help them continue their assault into the mid and late game.
Secondly, BDP introduces several playable 1 drops that will help classes seize the board from turn 1. Whether it's cards like Glow-Tron, or Mecharoo, I'd expect these solid 1 drops to help keep board pressure, as well as become targets for Magnetic buffs. Another class that I'd look out for is Hunter. A strong early game curve starting from turn 1, while going first means Hunter gets the jump on almost any class and puts them on a finite clock right away.
Lastly, with the reduced frequency of spells, drafts will have to rely more heavily on minion trading and minions that can double duty as removal. This means cards that offer initiative to perform favorable trades will be extra important to improve the consistency of the draft. This is where I think the Magnetic mechanic will shine since it provides initiative by buffing a minion, allowing it to trade and survive leaving a body behind to be dealt with. This leads me to the inevitable boogie man of the set - E.M.P. Operative. While the card is a bit more balanced then previous tech cards, it is a screaming value card especially if it lands on a larger mech (4+ mana), or a mech that has been "Magnetized". I would fully expect this card to be in many drafts to counter the strength and frequency of mechs (my opinion) in this upcoming meta.
To summarize, I feel this meta will go back to the tried and true old school "curvestone" meta, where spell removal is not as common, and board control, proper game sense, and balanced drafting will be the most viable strategy for arena.
Cliff Notes
- Curvestone returns due to strong 1-drops in set
- Less AOE/spells stresses minion trading, and initiative
- Faster meta, which means the control archetype will be more inconsistent
Quick Notes
- Most Meta Defining - E.M.P. Operative is the clear #1 here. It isn't necessarily the best Neutral, but will definitely shape the meta for better or worse. It's in a reasonable bucket, with comparable cards such as Sunwalker, Blood Knight and Lone Champion. I'd expect it to be chosen with relative frequency especially as the new cards are being playtested. It's an Epic though, so we might not see it as often as I am alluding too, but everyone should be very aware of it. Notable mention: Giggling Inventor
- Most Underrated - Coppertail Imposter wins it here for me. I think this card has the potential to be a staple in many drafts. It allows for a clean Magnetic target, as well as dropping down with some decent stats. It's a neutral and it'll be seen often. This card should perform well across all the classes. Notable mention: Mecharoo
- Most Over Bucketed cards aka Never drafted cards - Supercollider (tier 1-1.5), Arcane Dynamo (tier 1-1.5), Dyn-o-matic (tier 2-2.5), Voltaic Burst (tier 2-2.5)
Class Tier Prediction
Rogue
Given probably the best set of tools from this set, allows one of the best classes in Arena to claim the top spot once again. My choice for class MVP ? - Crazed Chemist, a tier 5-5.5 bucket card that competes against garbage like Cutthroat Buccaneer and Runeforge Haunter should be an easy choice to outperform. Notable additions: Crazed Chemist, Necrium Blade, Blightnozzle Crawler
Paladin
A faster, stickier, buffier? meta plays to Paladin's strengths. The reduced frequency of weapons hurts them slightly, but they only need 1: Silver Sword, which has been moved to the 2nd bucket (thank god). I really like Glow-Tron and feel it's in a reasonable bucket tier 4-4.5. It does compete against some solid cards though like Equality, Sound the Bells! and Light's Justice which makes it harder to pick the little robot. Notable additions: Glow-Tron, Annoy-o-Module, Shrink Ray
Mage
Even with the reduced frequency of spells, Mage has plenty to cherry pick from. The new set provides a lot of draw and value, so expect Mage to push the limits of balance tempo and control once again. I'd look out for Meteorologist as a potential under bucketed card at tier 6-6.5, I feel it will outperform it's bucket placing. Notable additions: Meteorologist, Cosmic Anomaly, Astral Rift
Warlock
Same as Mage, Warlock has plenty of spells to choose from even if the offerings are reduced. The new set didn't provide a lot of viable cards and introduced "buff" type cards to the class. Not enough support that dilutes the core offerings reduce Warlocks draft consistency. Omega Agent is in bucket tier 5-5.5, this seems to me like a grossly mis-bucketed card for it's late game strength. Notable additions: Spirit Bomb, Doubling Imp, Omega Agent
Hunter
The king of going 1st while curving out. Hitting those early minions into reach finish allows Hunter to capitalize on classes that have to monitor their HP pool closely. Hunter will have the problem of too many top tier cards yet again. A bargain draft pick might be Secret Plan which allows you to grab top bucket secrets, at a much more reasonable tier 4 pick. Notable additions: Venomizer, Bomb Toss, Spider Bomb
Druid
Always consistent, Druid has a solid game plan with strong classic minions and plenty of balanced spells to keep them in the thick of the tier list. As a late game stud, Gloop Sprayer stands out to me, and in the tier 5-5.5 bucket offers decent value. It competes against lesser competition like Strongshell Scavenger and Grizzled Guardian. Notable additions: Landscaping, Gloop Sprayer, Tending Tauren
Priest
Reduced spell frequency hurts draft consistency for Priest. A poor hero power and over reliance on certain removal and AOE really keep Priest from reaching it's potential. Less Mind Control and Shadow Madness probably hurts the class the most. Extra Arms might offer some decent draft value in the tier 5-5.5 bucket. It's often up against even worse cards, and a buff for Priest is always a frightening thing. Notable additions: Omega Medic, Extra Arms, Power Word: Replicate
Shaman
A very good set of tools from the new set could make Shaman a surprise class, but overload cards keep your tempo limited on future turns, so capitalizing right away is critical to success. Reduced occurrence of Stormforged Axe and Lightning Storm no doubt hurt the classes performance. Elementary Reaction seems like a bargain in the tier 6-6.5 bucket, this surely will out perform it's peers easily. Notable additions: Menacing Nimbus, Thunderhead, Elementary Reaction
Warrior
Not strong enough cards from this new set to bring Warrior out of the basement. The reduction in Weapon occurrence hurts Warrior the most, due to their heavy reliance on gaining the board and value thru their weapons. It's hard for me to see Warrior rising up the ranks moving forward. Not only is Warrior probably going to the worst, they also probably the most over bucketed card of the set Supercollider in the tier 1-1.5 bucket. As for bargain choices, Omega Assembly seems more then reasonable being only in the tier 6-6.5 bucket. Notable additions: Omega Assembly, Security Rover, Weapons Project
These are solely predictions (for now) based on my own personal knowledge and experience in the Arena. Let's hear what you think about the upcoming meta? Excited? Break out cards? Unsung MVP cards? Surprise or Disappointing Classes? As always, I will be updating as more in our arena meta thread as more data comes through in regards to the performances of cards and classes!
Nice write-up, I always appreciate these posts that get arena more attention.
Warrior and Shaman look fine actually if you take a look at the card occurrence sheet provided by Blizzard, I doubt they will be bottom tier. I'm also not sure about how E.M.P. operative will impact arena, its stats are too poor to make it a really viable pick. A post on reddit by Tarrot said we would see about 9 mechs per draft on average though, so about 2-5 mechs probably per deck? That seems okay-ish but I likely wouldn't pick it over a much more consistent drop like Sunwalker. The Lightforge by the way rates the card at a 58 which is Angry Chicken powerlevel.
On the other hand you seem to underestimate Arcane Dynamo by a lot, this card basically guarantees getting a board clear in Mage, provides access to powerful tools that swing the board like Plague, UI in Druid etc. which is really powerful in a more curve-centric meta.
Hey Zash, keep in mind the article was written before a lot of the community weighed in with their own ideas. I'll be interested to see how the mechs will work out. I feel if given the choice between two close picks if you have several mechs, then taking more mechs will be path you end up draft. For example you can a lot a range of 1-3 mechs per deck without much emphasis on synergy, but as soon as you get the ball rolling on the mechs you might be looking at 5-9 actually drafted. It's hard to say, but I will go out on a limb and fully expect every draft to have at least 1 mech drafted. :) Tarrot shares the same insight as me about EMP operative. We both believe it as a higher impact card. While grinning goat has differing opinions hence angry chicken comparison. As you can see it's a pretty divisive card!
Actually I dont think Arcane Dynamo is bad, just not an good as its bucket suggests. And of course in some classes it's better then others.
Great write up. Cant wait to see what was true / plays out. Insightful thoughts either way!
Thanks - looking forward to making a "biggest mistake" type thread afterwards I'm sure. :)
Back when Blackrock Mountain was out and when The Grand Tournament was out Control Warrior was a very big thing. (But yes the meta has been annoyingly fast lately)
Priest vs priest in KAC meta back in late 2017. Brutal 20-25 mins games.
Plz correct your wrong predictions and move Druid to tier0 where it belongs.
This is an arena prediction, not a standard mode prediction. Few of the new Druid cards are actually any good in Arena.
Its Arena.
Weekend is always slow on news, so you can read something new, potentially interesting ;-)
To be fair, warrior was doing pretty in Arena during the couple weeks where they had access to Blazing Longsword.
Wait wait... Are you guys serious? Rogue tier 1? Druid tier 2? Warrior tier 3? Mage tier 2? Lmao.
I wont even bother to argument. So I will just post mine:
tier 3: Shaman and Mage.
Tier 2: Priest, Shaman, Warrior and Rogue
Tier 1: Druid, Warlock and Paladin.
We are talking about arena here and Warrior hero power will always put Warrior at tier 3.
Maybe you should provide an argument, instead of just scoffing without explanation.
Rogue has long been one of the more powerful arena classes while Warrior has been the weakest. I see little reason for that to change with the new cards and buckets.
hard to see druid tier 1 in arena
Nah, Warrior has been Tier 1 many times, but a long time ago.
Oh Arena. Must have missed it. Sorry.
It's in big letters in the title - ARENA.
I am genuinely impressed. I never once saw a comment/post get downvoted 50 times on here.
You deserve an Achievement. Or whatever the opposite of that is. A Demerit perhaps? I'm not too great with antonyms.
I've never seen so many downvotes on this site