Go Figure, Druid is Popular! Dean Ayala Talks About Monitoring the Meta & Potential for Changes
Druid has been a very popular class recently thanks to some new additions handed to them during Frozen Throne. Unfortunately though when one class succeeds too well, the community won't stop asking questions and thankfully this time around, we've reeled in a response from Dean Ayala.
Below you'll find our recap of the important points and the full quote from Dean.
- It is not abnormal to see one archetype get popular early on; people latch onto powerful decks.
- Using short term statistics to say things like "more popular than Undertaker Hunter" isn't a good comparison. The two use different sets of data (biased publicly gathered vs all players via internal stats)
- Blizzard is always watching the meta.
- TL;DR: They are discussing possible Druid changes internally, but it's too early to say if anything will be changed.
Dean talked about some the cards being used by Druids and what they've been talking about internally.
Innervate, Swipe, Wild Growth
- Class defining cards are good, but auto-include cards into decks isn't their design goal.
- Internal discussions are weighing pros and cons about each card staying with Druid for eternity.
Ultimate Infestation
- They think changing it would only impact player sentiment and not play or win rate stats.
- It doesn't appear to be statistically responsible for Druid power or popularity.
- Player sentiment and the card's draw power not being a part of their class identity leave the card up for balance discussion.
Spreading Plague
- Druids have a vulnerability to swarms of minions. They liked this method to help them with that as it fit the flavor of the class.
- They'd like to only see it used during heavy swarm minion metas and not general inclusion in all Druid decks.
- The current meta shows a lot of swarm-style decks which is likely why we're seeing it played so much. Their eyes remain on this card.
Blue Post
Quote from Dean AyalaDruid surpasses in popularity the historic Undertaker Hunter
We cite internal statistics from time to time, but I tend to be cautious of that myself because it's very difficult to find any statistic that represents everyone. Given enough time and enough access I find that it's not difficult to display data to support almost any opinion about the metagame. At the end of the Un'Goro cycle, Hunter was actually the highest win rate class among all Hearthstone players. In fact, Hunter held the highest win rate for the a large portion of the expansion. Of course, I wouldn't say that in retrospect of Un'Goro that Hunter should have been less powerful, but that is what the data might suggest. With that in mind, here are some thoughts on some of the comments I've read in this thread.
- Druid surpasses in popularity the historic Undertaker Hunter.
The statistics being used for this post are for one rank over one day. The statistics we cite about Undertaker Hunter reference all Hearthstone players at all ranks over a time range of a week to a month. Druid is popular right now, but these statistics aren't comparable. If I had to guess what the most popular class within one rank of all time is, I would probably guess Mage at Rank 25 on an average day or Warrior at Legend during the Warsong Commander / Molten Giant era.
- Blizzard disappeared after the expansion.
As with every early metagame, we are monitoring play rates, win rates, and player sentiment on a daily basis. We hop in threads like this one fairly regularly to say exactly that, but people tend to want to know exactly whether we are or are not going to change something. We are discussing what potential changes we could make if Druid increases in popularity over time, but ~5 days of popularity is not enough to make that call at this time.
- The people want to know the status of a druid nerf.
We are looking at a number of Druid cards, but for a deck or archetype to reach this level of popularity this early on in an expansion is not abnormal. The population usually finds something powerful, latches onto it, then other decks that are powerful vs that archetype come onto the scene until one of them emerges as the new popular deck before the cycle continues. It's certainly possible that Druid is in fact so powerful that it prevents the normal metagame cycle from happening, but it's too early to tell. Here are some thoughts on current Druid cards. Keep in mind that these are some of the discussions we have internally, not a list of changes.
Innervate, Swipe, Wild Growth: When we changed Keeper of the Grove and Ancient of Lore, the goal was for Druids to have more interesting decisions to make when deckbuilding rather than a large group of cards to be automatically included. Even though those cards changed, there are still some other offenders of this such as Innervate or Swipe...and Wild Growth to a lesser degree. Having some powerful cards that help define what makes a class different can be good, but those cards in particular have spawned a number of internal conversations where we have been weighing the upside and downside to having each as a part of Druid for Hearthstone eternity.
Ultimate Infestation: Changing a card like Ultimate Infestation we think would have a bigger impact on player sentiment than actual play rate or win rate statistics. It's a big, flashy, cool design but it hasn't appeared to be statistically responsible for Druid power or popularity. Power level aside, having such a powerful card draw effect in Druid is something we are wary of in Druid because we wouldn't consider it part of their identity as a class. Partially for that reason and for sentiment reasons it is still part of discussions in terms of what to do with Druid should population and power level continue to rise.
Spreading Plague: Part of what keeps Druid vulnerable is their weakness to minion swarms due to a lack of powerful AoE. While we think plague is a soft version of AoE that fits the Druid flavor kit, it might shore up one of points of vulnerability more than we would have originally intended. Ideally Spreading Plague is used in heavy minion swarm metas and less so as a general inclusion in any Druid deck. Token Druid, Token Shaman, and Murloc Paladin are all showing high population in the current metagame so it's possible the meta for plague just happens to be now, but it's a card we're continuing to keep a close eye on going forward.
AMEN BROTHER!
Just to clarify though, I agree with 90% of what you said, but Jade Druid was NOT a strong deck.
It was a hard counter to control. BUT IT NEVER HAD OVER 50% win rate.
It was always a deck that defined the meta and it surely was one popular deck all the time. It was also a very competitive deck to take to tournaments, etc.
But the fact was that besides everything Jade was never overpowered because the decks that it countered never got to see play.
Now the problem with Jade is that finally the deck is over 50% win rate and it wins against EVERYTHING. Spreading Plague gave jade the stabilization it never had against token/aggro. It buys jade 2 turns to draw, ramp up jades and fight back for the board.
So now Jade IS a problem but not because of the jades. Do I believe Jade Idol should be nerfed? Sure! It shouldn't go infinite because it stagnates the meta.
Would nerfing Jade Idol fix the problems with druid? nope. Not at all. Jade druid does not need Jade Idol to be strong anymore and druid has other decks that are being problematic.
Jade is not an undertaker-level problem, it's closer to Mid-Range shaman where they got so many little tools over the time that seemed innocent that now the class is just busted.
I still dont get it... Ultimate Infestation is a pre nerf Ancient of Lore (that they nerfed because it was OP) that deals 5 damage and draws you 3 cards.
So when the Ancient of Lore with a piossible Fandral Staghelm gets nerfed because of:
Why would you reprint it as a 10 mana that deals 5 damage and draws 1 more card than prenerf and deosnt need a Fandral Staghelm. If that is OP... why do you even add 5 damage draw 1 for 3 mana? OP+OP = fine?
Dont forget that Ultimate Infestation gives you armour and doesnt heal... so you will always get the full value... that is even better than a heal!
Well, let's see how will be after some weeks. n'zoth Pally was pretty strong during the old gods first month but died after.
Saw the druids cards before the expansion was live and already had a feeling druid would be op.
The problem is that blizzard is working well ahead on different expansions and dont have a good feeling with current one.
The wait and see aproach never worked out, good decks wont dissapear or lose there popularity.
Well we are at it i think not only druids has some problem cards that needs a revamp, if anything a nerf will only make some other classes op if other class cards or some neutrals stays untouched.
It's often cut in grinder-style control decks, particularly now in DK Jaina decks. That archetype is at least as meta as Exodia Mage, but more generally, cutting Fireball a valid option. Polymorph takes out bigger things, through Divine Shield and around Deathrattle, plus leaves a great target to hero power down for a Water Elemental. Fireball is a great card, but not nearly as universal as Innervate. If you don't care about burst, you can swap it for better removal.
I guess I should have specified competitive or top-tier(s) meta decks. The decks you described don't exactly fit that category and might even be considered niche-tier. Every top tier Mage deck (mech, tempo, freeze, burn, secret) have used fireball and frost bolt for that matter. While these two cards may see 70%+ play in decks compared to innervates 90%+ (current meta stats) it still doesn't change the fact that the percentages are too high over the lifetime of the game.
But I do suppose this is all ultimately irrelevant as every class has a couple of high probability use cards, but that's what helps give them their identity. Only two options going forward would be to carefully balance these cards so the class doesn't lose its identity while attempting to create fairness/maintain competitiveness. The other would be to hall-of-fame the entire basic/classic sets since most of the cards in question come from here or at least an equal amount of cards throughout all classes. Otherwise it becomes an endless cycle where a new class steps in as the king of OP cards for that season with posts like these popping up all the time.
Funny fact: after karazhan Polymorph is the less use removal of mage decks. And the reason is very simpl, you can go to the face with Fireball. Everyone seens fireball just like a removal tool but is one of the most flexible spell of the game for 4 mana. 6 Damages and two 3 attack minions can dealt with a Deathwing lord of the dragons just for 4 mana (sure you want to polymorph a card like him) and even if polymorh can handle 8 health or more minions alone you will be force to waste Polymorph in high value minions before big minions at that point of the game you can just go into 2 fireballs to safe and win be damage (cause ice block will stop the big minion from kill you). Secret polymorph is even better cause secrets of mage are a pain to play around. So yeah, Fireball is so close to Innervate power-range.
I'm not saying Fireball isn't great, or isn't the more-used spell, but it's not universal. Not like Innervate is. You can build a viable mage deck without it.
Also, unlike Innervate, Fireball (and Frost Bolt) is pretty much right where it's on-curve power level should be. Innervate fundamentally breaks the level of power any player is meant to have at a given point in the curve. It's probably better to compare Fireball to Swipe. Swipe is in nearly every druid deck, but can be skipped in some decks.
My point stands. Auto include card are not bad in other case, they just call a over use card when Druid or Hall of the Fame stuff come, so why they hard nerf 2 minions of the druid classic collection again? (save for FoW) "because over use cards are bad"
Ice Block is a over user tool in late game Mage decks. For example, But a better example is sorcerers apprentice how many time this card will remain in eternal formats? i´m not point just exodia mage but all the high late game value spells decks. This card is a problem, a great one, too. Cost reduction is too much powerfull in 2 mana spot specially when you put this effec in mage, a class that can abuse of the effect just cloning the apprentice.
What will take its place if they nerf druid will be paladin and priest decks. The statue priest is insane. Barns on turn 4 and get some 8 mana card as a 1/1. When it dies/gets killed, endlessly resurrect it as a full minion. I killed one obsidian statue 1/1 and 5 4/8 obsidian statues took its place in 3 turns. Thats just insane and impossible to win against.
There's a release date to that?
What a big and ellaborated way of saying "go f*ck yourselves"
And by the sound of it nothing will be done for a while, so I guess I'm off ladder again this season...
They at last see that the card that is making the most troubles is Innervate (and by a long time). I hope they will fix it.
For the rest their fix will probably be too late: with the new schedule of expansion's release a nerf will come only a month before everything change again, making it pointless. Only if they change something in the Basic and Classic sets then it will matters.
Druid is popular? Not according to the stats on the hearthpwn frontpage. It's Priest (17%).
Sorry bud, but that shows decks on the side, not in meta.